Did the Latvia government finally grant that emergency loan?
https://en.bb.lv/article/politics/20...for-fuel-94288
In this link it says that the Saeima's Budget and Finance Committee does not support the emergency loan.

There may be truth to the original story. But it's also worth noting that Chay Bowes, the person who posted the story on X, works for Russia Today and has a history of doing the Kremlin's bidding in (dis)information terms. And spreading some fear and uncertainty about the Latvian state airline would certainly fit with a Russian agenda.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chay_Bowes
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2...-from-romania/

Just hypethetically:

What happens if you are enrolled as a student pilot in their pilot academy and the company goes bankrupt?

Air Baltic Reality
 

As recently as 10 Apr 2026 Fitch Ratings has downgraded Air Baltic Corporation AS's (airBaltic) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC-' from 'CCC+'. Fitch has also downgraded airBaltic's senior secured long-term rating on EUR380 million bonds to 'CCC-' from 'B-'. The Recovery Rating is 'RR4'.
For context:

• Definition of Junk: Bonds rated BB+ or below by S&P and Fitch (or Ba1 and below by Moody’s) are considered speculative, or "junk".
• Where CCC- Falls: A CCC- rating is at the very bottom of that range, sitting below CCC+ and CCC.
• Default Risk: A CCC rating indicates "very weak" credit, often with a high risk of default or a high probability that the company is experiencing severe financial difficulties.
• Fitch 'RR4' rated securities have characteristics consistent with securities historically recovering 31%-50% of current principal and related interest.

In its April 2026 assessment Fitch furthermore notices: "The downgrade reflects airBaltic's very weak financial flexibility and acute liquidity pressure, which, absent additional external support, could lead to a liquidity crisis within the next six to 12 months. Near-term liquidity may be supported by a state loan and working-capital measures, but we view these levers as temporary. In our view, the company will require a large equity injection to sustain operations through 2026. The IDR reflects airBaltic's weak financial profile, with unsustainable leverage due high lease-adjusted debt and weaker financial performance in 2025, which we expect to persist into 2026. The rating also captures the rising risk of debt restructuring during 2026 if broader funding support is not secured."

https://www.fitchratings.com/researc...ccc-10-04-2026

Hmmm....

One probably also has to wonder why the EU's three baltic states with a combined 6,5 million population would need to be served by a 55 strong fleet of A220s, as is the case with Air Baltics. For comparison, an absolutely similar sized market like Bulgaria, EU, is served by Bulgaria Air's five A220s, supplemented by one 319 and 4 320s. Their four E190/195 have already been outsourced since years, first to TAP/Portugalia and more recently to Air Serbia. The 320s are mostly doing charter flights. Which basically leaves five A220s serving the market, next to of course the Ryanair and Wizzair Sofia-based fleet. But the same LCC's are also serving the baltic market. So how 55 versus 5 aircraft in a similar sized market?

An absolutely similar sized market like Bulgaria
 

By this logic, EU country Ireland (population 5.3 million) which hosts the headquarters of Ryanair (fleet 647 aircraft) and Aer Lingus (fleet 62) must be completely on the brink seeing as Ireland has a considerably smaller population than Bulgaria (population 6.68 million).

The answer is twofold.

Firstly, the EU has one giant aviation market. From 1 January 1993, EU-registered airlines gained the right to fly between any EU member state and operate domestic routes within other EU countries creating a single European aviation market in which Air Baltic and every EU airline operates.

Secondly, the size and strength of the domestic economy. Lithuania's economy is about the same size as Bulgaria's. When combined with Latvia and Estonia, the three countries have a combined economy which is approximately 1.5 to 2 times the size of the Bulgarian economy.

Bulgaria is the poorest member state by far within the European Union with the lowest Actual Individual Consumption (AIC) per capita in the EU, at roughly 34% below the EU average in 2024.

In 2024, approximately 16.6% of the Bulgarian population faced severe material and social deprivation, placing it near the bottom of EU rankings.

For these reasons, you cannot compare 'market size' by simply looking at population alone.

Wizz have 11 aircraft based in Bulgaria and only 3 in the Baltic states while a large chunk of Air Baltic's fleet (20 aircraft as of today) are leased out to other operators (Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian, Air Serbia, Brussels Airlines ) and not used in the Baltic market.

The big leased out part of their fleet must be busy and will continue to be needed by the leasing customers in the future. Good product, efficient, competitive cost base. This is why their financial crunch comes to my surprise.

Fitch Ratings is the same rating agency that gave Lehman Brothers a strong, investment-grade (AA) credit rating in April 2008, less than 5 months before Lehman Brothers filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy with over $600 billion in assets suddenly worth close to zero (a 93% drop in share value)

Fitch Ratings also maintained a very high investment grade rating (AA+) on AIG (American International Group) less than four months before it also collapsed requiring a massive $85 billion emergency bailout from the Federal Reserve on September 16, 2008.

It is not uncommon for airlines to carry 'junk' debt. Indeed, approximately 80% of rated airlines hold non-investment grade (high-yield or speculative) debt, as of mid-2024.

This isn't a criticism of a particular airline. It is the nature of airline operations which require significant amounts of capital and small profit margins on high turnover.

Airlines that have maintained investment grade status (e.g. Qantas, Delta, Lufthansa, Southwest, Alaska, Ryanair, WestJet) are the exception, not the rule.

Look at Lufthansa with its announcements of 16 April 2026 immediately withdrawing the entire 27 aircraft fleet of Lufthansa CityLine fleet (https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/...mplementation/) and on 21 April 2026 announcing effectively the removal of 20,000 flights from the summer 2026 schedule (https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/...-all-six-hubs/).

Air Baltic does carry a debt pile (€1.3 billion) as does Lufthansa (€14.5 billion). It is certainly a very tough time for the airline industry globally, with Jet A-1 highly refined kerosene-based fuel at record prices (and even the risk of scarcity), interest rates at record highs, inflation creeping back into major economies and the risk of a sharp economic downturn.

Certainly, Air Baltic is exposed having a large debt pile. It is not a good market for Air Baltic's proposed IPO (initial Public Offering) which I suspect will be delayed until current high-interest rates, fuel price volatility, and geopolitical uncertainties abate somewhat.

Whether the government of Latvia, the current majority shareholder of Air Baltic, can wait until then, only time will tell. The second largest shareholder (Lufthansa with 10%) seems to currently be having their own difficulties with debt servicing.

I also think of the adage, 'how do you make a small fortune?' Answer: 'Invest a large fortune in an airline!'

There is also the other apocryphal statement, but no less liklely to be untrue, that the total cumulative net profit for the entire airline industry since the Wright Brothers' first flight in 1903 is zero or potentially negative. It seems you need to be 'brave' (or perhaps stupid) to invest in airlines as the capital costs are huge, with enormous geopolitical uncertainties, volatile fuel prices (the largest input cost) and very small profit margins.

It is easy to understand why so very few airlines consistently make a decent return

Aren't there EU regulations that forbid / limit how much a country can subsidise an airline?
Sorry to beat a dead horse but MALEV had their plug pulled much earlier in the game 🙄

Deutsche Lufthansa AG v European Commission (23/04/2026)
 

You don't need to go back to MALEV. You can read yesterday's decision of the European Court of Justice ( Deutsche Lufthansa AG v European Commission, Judgment of the Court (Third Chamber) of 23 April 2026, Appeal – State aid – Article 107(3)(b) TFEU – German air transport market – Aid granted by Germany to an airline) brought by Ryanair and Condor in protest at the €6 billion the German government paid to Lufthansa as part of 'recapitalisation' during the Covid-19 pandemic.

This payment was found to be unlawful state aid. Lufthansa appealed the decision and yesterday's judgment dismisses the Lufthansa appeal and upholds the illegality of the payments made by the German government to Lufthansa.

You can read all 32 pages of the decision in English through this link

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-cont...EX:62023CJ0457

Below is a summary of the decision issued yesterday by the European Court of Justice

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a63cab62fa.png

What is deadline for DLH to return money?

I suppose- never?

They claim to have paid back the entire amount including interest since a long time.

Doesn't matter. Fitch were too optimistic: is that what you're saying? And anyway that was 18 years ago.
Point is the €380m of AIRBAL 14.5% bonds are trading at 36 today (vs issued at 100). If bonds are deeply distressed the equity is worthless. Not much chance of an IPO in this situation....
As others have pointed out, direct bailouts in the EU are hard now, so a debt restructuring at some point is likely (which would wipe out the equity).
That's doesn't necessarily preclude continuing operations.

Yes. I have enormous respect for ratings agencies but it is always an impossible job to predict the future.

To quote the inimitable Donald Rumsfeld, 'as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know'

Rating agencies largely mispriced the risks of collaterized debt obligations and credit default swaps, because the contamination risks of these products were not properly understood. They were 'unknown unknowns'.

Air Baltic, along with every other Airbus 220 operator, has suffered financially due to the current unreliability of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) PW1500G, which is the exclusive engine for the Airbus A220.

Having the largest Airbus A220-300 fleet in the world is not a great place to be with engine reliability issues.

Add to that the €1.3 billion debt, post 28 February 2026 market volatility, and the timing is not favourable for an Air Baltic IPO. There are also many 'unknown unknowns'.

Air Baltic many not continue in its current form but it will be the shareholders or creditors who decide its fate. Even if it collapsed, it would provide rich manure from which another airline (or airlines) could grow.

There are indeed
Its a matter of time when EU court gets involved.
Wizz closed the base in Riga, how to compete an airline that is running on taxpayers money?
I wonder how the Ryanair or Wizz haven’t point this to EU authorities yet

1.3 billion debt and use the fuel prices that raised the last month to get more money from the taxpayers:E

Airbaltic lost more than 70 millions for the first quarter of 2026

If they didn't make money in Q1 I'd say it is hopeless 🙄