Flyoneday,

Welcome to the "prune"...many people here are very insensitive...

Having flown extensively in Africa, including in and out of Douala whilst based there, (working a contract for SAFAIR on behalf of Cameroon Airlines) yes there are problems, but unless one has been there and is prepared to cope, then their opinion of things they know nothing about shouldn't be voiced on a thread such as this.

A new A/C, a well trained crew, and pure speculation...

My symapthy for the loss of your crewmember friends and the pax as well...

it is so very sad that the drivel bashers are so in force...still didn't see anyone talk about the one crash that lightning caused many years ago.

My pointless speculation for what its worth would be fuel quality out of Cameroon, if can be a bit iffey at times.

At this stage we can all speculate a dozen theories, but that's not the way an investigation works, is it?

I only hope enough hard data can be recovered to produce a probable cause that can be accepted by all the disciplines; and corrective action made available to prevent a repeat. We don't need another UA585, or US427, or AA587.

"How does the wreckage location correlate with radar coverage from ATC?"

There is no radar in douala.

Kenya Airways
 

Lived there in the mid 80's always a good airline then - been back a few times since - their service has got better and better - what a shame for one of the go ahead African Airlines....

Most charts for Douala can be found here:

http://www.ais-asecna.org/en/atlas/cameroun/douala.htm

Preferential Runway seems to be 12. According to the latest information on the crash site, it is right below the SID in direction Yaounde.

Best regards
AN2 Driver

I agree Mike. I lived there '94 / '95 and worked with and met many of the expatriate and local KQ guys - including Brian Davies of Speedwing Consulting - who were trying desperately hard to take it up the ladder. People bang on about SAA and yes, SAA is a success story in a way, but it had the whole South African economy behind it. Brian and his team were on their own had two really knackered 732s that were pulled out of desert storage, 3 F50s, and I think a couple of A300s. They managed - somehow - to build an infrastructure again from the ruins, change a culture and float the company on the Nairobi Stock exchange - the first airline in Africa to do so. The KLM/NW tie up marked that final step on the ladder. The Abidjan and now Douala accidents are just so damned frustrating. I just hope the Douala investigation is more definitive than Abidjan (CFIT into the Ocean) which, on reading leaves you with a vague feeling that there are several questions unanswered. At this stage, the parallels with this incident are tragically similar. Many posters have given their condolences and I'd add my sympathy to the guys at KQ who must be feeling really gutted. We're thinking of you.

PM

I guess the part of all this that spurs us to speculate is that aircraft and all of aviation revolves around aircraft flying, and not crashing, and huge amounts of time, money, effort and training goes into ensuring (or trying to ensure) that they don't crash.

Any way you look at it a 6 month old aircraft operated by what appears to be a well run company crashing in the way this one appears to have is more than just a little unusual.

Looking at what we "appear' to know.
1. Apparently no mayday call (although early reports seemed to suggest there was one).....would be nice to get the straight info on this.
2. An event must have occurred therefore which was sudden and immediately (or nearly immediately) catastrophic, incapacitating the aircraft or crew or both.
3. Most events that we get from time to time in aviation would either have allowed a radio call or allowed the aircraft to continue flying, so it would have to have been that quick that there was no time to communicate, or removed the ability to communicate and incapacitated the aircraft (and/or crew) at the same time.

Not too many scenarios that I can think of that fit with that.

Bad fuel quality comes to mind...

GD&L.....could be....... but then you would expect some radio call reporting flameouts......so it would seem unlikely assuming there were no maydays.....which may or may not be so?????

Fuel Quality
 

Has bad fuel qual. causes an accident before, does anyone know?

Bridge Builder

I recall AN-124 crash in Irkutsk in 1997 shortly after takeoff, 3 engines out of 4 quit, and altough the reason was not 100% clear most people involved blame fuel or fuel system contamination (ice).

I also aware of a couple incidents involving one engine flameout due to bad fuel quality in Kabul, Afghanistan in recent years, which have not led to the crash.

Lets face it this thing could have been caused by any number of things and have one of millions of root causes. On the matter of drivel I think its a matter of opinion. Maybe lets cut the KQ workers here some slack, remember they are shocked and angry and have just lost a bunch of friends in one go. Its understandable that they might drivel on a bit. To the rest of us drivelers well we have no excuse:}

Not to speculate at all but out of Douala the groound crews there would always try to sneak things on to the plane. They would get paid by the sender, maybe a few bucks, to do it and their compadres at the other end would pick up the goods. Saves the sender paying the higher prices to the airline. Very well organised scam to all destinations in the area. I am sure they put 'extras' on KQ and other aircraft as well. Industrious little blighters.:=

Pinkman,

Lets hope that the vague unanswered questions dont surface in this investigation either. nuff said:ugh:

Fuel Quality
 

Thanks Cargo One.

Just like Florida?
 

Helldog - Are you thinking Valuejet here?

The so called speculating drivel being pandered in the various aviation forums are really just check boxes in the trained investigators kit.
Most of these possibilities are easily assessed with a few facts in the earliest days following an accident. The facts come from the wreckage itself as well as interviews with the infrastructure (ATC, weather, grround maintenance, etc.) It's only after supporting facts are found that the investigation starts to dig deeper into the many speculative guesses on these discussion boards. In the great majority of these speculative "guesses" they are dismissed by the lack of supporting facts coupled with factual arguments against, in the earliest hours.
The real challenge is the laborious task of continuing to search for supporting or refuting facts against the remaining speculations on the list.
The real "drivel" and useless speculation ,in my mind, is when these message board discussions start generating phantom facts from hearsay, and opinions.
some things to keep in mind for most accidents (not just this latest one)
equipment failures in flight are typically announced to ATC before the radio is cut-off
One day at the accident site typically confirms or refutes mechanical causes, so listen and read carefully any debriefing from these qualified investigators, that might come in the first days (be wary of unqualified government officials)

regarding fuel contamination:

I know of one incident in the USA in which a plane had contaminated fuel (airliner), on takeoff roll, just breaking ground after Vr, both engines quit. runway remaining was adequate for a quick landing. It could happen, but I don't think that is the case here.


if radio contact 11 minutes after takeoff was normal, the plane would likely be above 10,000 feet. even if all engines quit, the plane would glide long enough for another radio call.


a bomb in the cockpit, killing the pilots could account for a lack of further radio calls.

one must wonder about security procedures in africa.


however, my first feeling is wx.

Value Jet, was that the one with the O2 generators catching fire? I cant remember, but yeah something like that is possible if someone put something on board for collection in Nairobi without the knowledge of the airline. Its a shame though. I hope that they are able to determine the real cause so that the families of those killed can at least know why this happened.