Could Leasing Companies be Forced to Write-off 500+ aircraft
 

I was wondering what the leasing companies would do with all the airframes that have their lease terminated due to the sanction on Russia.

But it appears that Russia is not going to give them back. Their airworthiness certificates will be revoked.

Interesting times ahead.

Without manufacturer support they will find it very difficult to operate (even within the confine of the Russian federation & satellite countries). Wonder if there is any “kill switch” embedded…

Not impossible, Iran has managed to keep a fleet of western aircraft in the air since 1979 and counting... The remnants of the old Soviet aircraft industry are still capable of manufacturing many replacement parts if needed, subject only to local CAA authorisation, which in this case will be forthcoming. As long as these aircraft remain within the realm, they can be operated with impunity. Of course there will be safety implications, as there was in Iran, but if you look at all those Russian dashcam videos, you'll realise that this concept is treated a bit differently than in our part of the world.

In general terms, how often do the manufacturers release software updates for the flight systems ? Even if the possibility of 'kill switches' is a reality, surely the onward march of AD's etc would make the aircraft non-compliant. The Russians can nationalise the leased aircraft but soon enough there will be operational issues that can't be resolved easily, and then of course there will be liens galore.

It may be possible to keep aircraft flying within an individual state's territory by maintaining them according to local standards. However, being able to demonstrate that they meet international standards at any time in the future is likely to be all but impossible thus rendering those aircraft to be useable only in the territory of the state that 'went local' for the rest of their operational days.
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With a lack of international flights there wouldn't be enough demand for all of them but hopefully the situation will be resolved before this becomes a long term problem.

Don't underestimate the ingenuity of airlines under an embargo . As said earlier Iran managed successfully since over 40 years to buy and get a fleet of Airbus, Boeing , ATRs and Fokker flying ,, mainly due to the use of third counties sympathetic to Iran providing the aircraft , the spares, the software updates etc.. . Russia is a bit more isolated at the moment but if for instance China supports them , they can continue to fly for a long time, and when this war is over and sanctions lifted , they can , just like before use their Soviet and recent Russian made aircraft to fly internationally.
The other plausible scenario is of course a regime change in Russia, the past is forgotten , and the West happily sells them new western aircraft ., just like in 1990 ...

Not sure how many new leases will be offered.

Out of date NAV databases will be one of the first issues. Cycle 2203 is effective on March 24th. I doubt that will be sent to russian operators as normal.

There just will be the very insignificant and teeny tiny problem of the airlines in fact having defaulted on their lease contracts. One thing that is very much different between Iran and Russia, is the fact that russian airlines have leased around three quarters of their fleets, mainly from international leasing companies. Which is not the case in Iran. Of course, that can be solved, given enough hard cash (rubles won't do) and the possibility to transfer that, once the sanctions are lifted that is.

They could also go after airline assets not in country.

Well, seems as if lessors are indeed a bit in a panic mode at the moment, while the big law firms are already busy calculating the income from a possible decade of lawsuits between lessors, insurers and airlines. Will be very interesting to see how this turns out, as russian airlines basically rip up the normal world of aircraft leasing.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ll-2022-03-09/

An hypothetical question : if Aeroflot decided to do all its maintenance with HAECO in Hong Kong , with the blessing of the Chinese ( or just turning a blind eye ) could the leasing companies repossess the aircraft in China ?

Some will be able to. After all, some of the bigger leasing companies are china based.

Once or if the aircraft is away from Russian airspace a repossession can be effected but will require the support of the local airport and a Part 145 as the aircraft will need to fly out on a different registration (ELT and Mode S need recoding and the new rego needs to be applied).The aircraft lease will require to be terminated, the aircraft de-registered (not sure if the Russians will comply) and re-registered in a new country, a ferry company will be required to reposition the aircraft to a place of storage. The the fun starts as it unlikely that the Lessor will have scanned copies of all the records up to the point of repo so a massive engineering and airworthiness review task then starts.

Interesting , thanks Denti and Plane Speaker., so basically if China (or the local airport) does not support the repossession, nothing is likely to happen .And if , as you say, the biggest lessors are China based , it means that China in fact hold the future of Russian civil aviation in their hands. I am not sure Putin had thought of that before he started this "special military operation" ..

The value of an aircraft without the records would be akin to aluminium cans.

No, it is not the biggest lessors, just some of the bigger firms are now chinese. The biggest lessors are Irish though, thanks in large to the very accommodating laws there making it essentially a tax haven for that industry.

Now, Russia ups it's game, by drafting a law that basically says that leasing rates have to be paid in rubles, and if a lease is terminated a government commission then has to decide if the plane may be returned (in accordance with the Cape Town Convention) or not, which of course would be a violation of that convention.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idCNL5N2VD26B

Interesting. Apparently China refuses to provide spare parts for leased aircraft in Russia, which makes it that much harder to maintain them in flying shape. Guess they have to scrap a good portion of the fleet for parts, something they are very much used to anyway for their homegrown aircraft.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ns-2022-03-10/

Going to be interesting times for the UK since many (perhaps most?) of Russia's modern airline fleet are ultimately under the legal auspices of UK Parliamentarians via the ICAO 83 bis arrangements for Bermuda and UK overseas territory aviation legislation. I thought they may have taken some action in Parliament during the Skripal poisonings but they didn't; not even against selected oligarch's aircraft. Mind you they may have had to compensate Bermuda in some form - too late now as it has got away from them