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-   -   Is the 380 Doomed? (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/632556-380-doomed.html)

Black Sun 17th May 2020 17:03

Is the 380 Doomed?
 
The future for the giant Airbus was looking fairly bleak months before anyone knew what was coming for 2020.
So what will happen now?.

Is the capacity it was built to enable a thing of the past or will there be enough of a bounce back for operators like Emirates to keep a few in Service?
My own feeling is that most will be scrapped for spares, but I'm no expert on the economics of Airline operations, interested to hear the views of those with greater knowledge

TopBunk 17th May 2020 17:08

Scrapped for spares? Spares for what?

atakacs 17th May 2020 17:08

Discussed ad nauseum in other threads

Black Sun 17th May 2020 17:10


Originally Posted by TopBunk (Post 10785212)
Scrapped for spares? Spares for what?

The few remaining in service


atakacs - apologies, Im new here and have not read too many of the postings, perhaps the mods can delete the thread?
Can you point me to the existing discussion/s? Thanks


old,not bold 17th May 2020 18:33


Originally Posted by TopBunk (Post 10785212)
Scrapped for spares? Spares for what?

The majority of the components will not be exclusively usable on the A380 alone.

Who knows (I don't); maybe even the Trent 900 and GP7000 can be used in other applications after some modifications.

Avionics, seats, galleys, IFE, pumps, wheels, brakes and tyres, airconditioning, tank inerting system, radar, instruments, computers, whatever, I'm only guessing, surely there's a lot of value there.

Momoe 17th May 2020 18:46

Not necessarily, A380 was aimed at hub and spoke market, timing is everything and Airbus got it wrong because more efficient aircraft made long thin routes viable.

However, hub and spoke might work post lockdown, A380's flying to major hubs, New York, LAX, HKG/SIN might be more efficient than running a 787/A350 with reduced numbers, less convenient but a damn sight better than not getting there because direct flights are economic suicide for the airlines?

Transient I know, but we it's difficult to predict when traffic will pick up

Big Pistons Forever 17th May 2020 18:54

A380 = Done like dinner

IMHO, when the industry gets going again there will be no place for the A380. It is the Convair 880 of the 21st Century.

Less Hair 17th May 2020 19:12

There will be trunk routes between hubs. Why shouldn't big airplanes be needed in the future? Just squeeze in more seats and make the economics work. What is the certification good for? 853 passengers! Now we are talking. Shanghai-LAX, LHR-JFK and such. Second hand aircraft or second lease term aircraft can be had for nothing in the next years.
However I'm not sure about EK's future concept with their fleet.

8029848s 17th May 2020 19:13

In a word....yes.


Bus Driver Man 17th May 2020 19:29

There might be a small need for A380s when air travel has reached the level of 2019 again. However, which airline will keep their A380 fleet until that happens? It could take a few year and keeping an A380 fleet, even in storage, is just a waste of money that airlines can’t afford.

So yes. Doomed.

Freighter conversions? Maybe, but it can’t compete with a B747 with a nose loading door.
Spare parts? Probably usable on A350 and A330NEO.

JPcont 17th May 2020 20:04

We all know that is out of production soon. Yes, it is doomed. How long it flies, it is an another question. We can predict that the “value” of A380 will go down and so de facto ownership capital cost goes down. Also engine is charged per hour. So it is possible to developer a business model where there are a lot less flight hours per year for the plane.



Based on that, there might be an opportunity to use the whale when there are demand. There will also be cheap A330 and 777 available in the near future. If the energy prices remains low, the winning formula might be mixture based on low capital costs.

Dropp the Pilot 17th May 2020 20:14

Hubris is always followed by Nemesis, more quickly in this case with N being driven on by Gallic arrogance and wilful stupidity. Shame about the colossal waste of fuel, money, and intellectual capital.

evansb 17th May 2020 21:27

Late 1960's artist's concepts of Boeing's 747 Jumbo Jet show a fictional airport that can enplane and deplane passengers through multiple jet ways. Similar with promotional material for the A380. This ideal was never realised. Most airport terminals serving 747/A380 types are still incapable of multiple door enplaning/deplaning. My personal experience of arriving and departing on an Air Canada Boeing 747 at Vancouver, Canada, (CYVR) was via a single front door. Took nearly half-an-hour. Passenger comfort is one factor, but when you arrive at your destination with a half-hour wait to disembark, and then wait for twenty minutes for baggage claim, and then a further 20-minute wait at Customs/ Douane, the advantage of a double-decked airliner is what now? Please remind me. Boeing's 377 Stratocruiser used the basement as a cocktail lounge. Now that is an advantage.

AirportPlanner1 17th May 2020 21:35

One thing the 380 might be good for is transporting a decent no of pax (if enough demand exists) with social distancing measures in place

ORAC 17th May 2020 21:36

You could move a lot of bodies in a day shuttling back and forth on the Hajj if they get sold off cheap.....

J.O. 17th May 2020 22:03

Serious question, is anyone going to Mecca in these days of social distancing? Talk about an opportunity for community spread ...

3Greens 17th May 2020 22:07


Originally Posted by J.O. (Post 10785413)
Serious question, is anyone going to Mecca in these days of social distancing? Talk about an opportunity for community spread ...

no. It’s not accepting pilgrimage this year.

Jet II 17th May 2020 22:23


Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 (Post 10785393)
One thing the 380 might be good for is transporting a decent no of pax (if enough demand exists) with social distancing measures in place


Will it be economically viable to fly a A380 (or any aircraft for that matter) around with only a 50% seat capacity in the current airline model?. Ticket prices would have to rise a hell of a lot to make that in any way profitable.

tdracer 17th May 2020 22:36


Originally Posted by old,not bold (Post 10785247)
The majority of the components will not be exclusively usable on the A380 alone.

Who knows (I don't); maybe even the Trent 900 and GP7000 can be used in other applications after some modifications.

Avionics, seats, galleys, IFE, pumps, wheels, brakes and tyres, airconditioning, tank inerting system, radar, instruments, computers, whatever, I'm only guessing, surely there's a lot of value there.

Actually, aside from avionics and some LRUs, the expensive bits will be largely exclusive to the A380. I don't know if the wheels/brakes/tires are common with anything else, but they're cheap (relatively) - it's the landing gear that's expensive. Anything structural is exclusive. The engines are exclusive - specially developed for the A380 - they're either too big or too small to be a viable installation on another aircraft type. Even if they were, designing, engineering, and certifying the installation of a new engine type on an existing airframe is massive undertaking that would take 3-4 years.


evansb 17th May 2020 23:00

Quote "...fly a A380 (or any aircraft for that matter) around with only a 50% seat capacity..." Is this scenario just like operating a 4,000 sq. ft. restaurant at half-capacity? Yes. Is it worth while? No. Especially when the landlord/property owner is demanding last month's rent right now.


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