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Originally Posted by rjtjrt
(Post 10674967)
Very good info. However wearing a mask has some real value, as it makes it less easy to touch mouth/nose, and if a visor mask, eyes.
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Originally Posted by rudolf
(Post 10674962)
I can confirm that 6 hours at Shanghai airport and the subsequent 4 hours to Hanoi in an N95 mask was chuffing uncomfortable.
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Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
(Post 10674991)
Oh, yeah, that was clearly not a fun ten hours. I've never had to wear one for that long and I hope I never need to.
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Many pax in Changi transit area masked up already, including Qantas cabin crew though not the pilots. In Asia due to air pollution and cultural norms when sick, the wearing of masks in public isn’t unusual at all and it was quite normal to see people walking around wearing them before this crisis hit.
I tried one yesterday for the first time, hot and uncomfortable they also makes your glasses steam up. |
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1....919985v1.full
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. Latest research paper quote: We further compared the characteristics of the donors and their ACE2 expressing patterns. No association was detected between the ACE2-expressing cell number and the age or smoking status of donors. Of note, the 2 male donors have a higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than all other 6 female donors (1.66% vs. 0.41% of all cells, P value=0.07, Mann Whitney Test). In addition, the distribution of ACE2 is also more widespread in male donors than females: at least 5 different types of cells in male lung express this receptor, while only 2~4 types of cells in female lung express the receptor. This result is highly consistent with the epidemic investigation showing that most of the confirmed 2019-nCov infected patients were men (30 vs. 11, by Jan 2, 2020). We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area. |
As at JAN 29 9PM EST, JHU has indicated:
1. global confirmed cases at 7783, fatalities at 170. 2. All fatalities to date are in China. 3. About 7 days ago, total confirmed cases were roughly 1000. Not surprising that the Chinese are building dedicated hospitals at record speeds. There is a strong suggestion that the care is a major factor in the outcome. How long does it take to train ICU staff? https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1....919985v1.full Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. Latest research paper quote: We further compared the characteristics of the donors and their ACE2 expressing patterns. No association was detected between the ACE2-expressing cell number and the age or smoking status of donors. Of note, the 2 male donors have a higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than all other 6 female donors (1.66% vs. 0.41% of all cells, P value=0.07, Mann Whitney Test). In addition, the distribution of ACE2 is also more widespread in male donors than females: at least 5 different types of cells in male lung express this receptor, while only 2~4 types of cells in female lung express the receptor. This result is highly consistent with the epidemic investigation showing that most of the confirmed 2019-nCov infected patients were men (30 vs. 11, by Jan 2, 2020). We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area. |
An N95 with proper use, with eye protection, and with proper hand de-sanitising, and sterile technique May I ask our posters to look at this site. Kate stares out of that sepia print and tugs at my heartstrings. A very brave young lady - just weeks before my grandfather, who'd survived Flanders, also killed by the flue which opens the throat and lungs to bacteria. You know the vast numbers in 1918 - 20 If only we'd had the resources we have now. But the issue is, it's not the medicine in the viral stage, but the cunning - and this time around we're seeing plenty of that. What I don't know is the deaths caused by the ensuing secondary infections. These are usually treatable by antibiotics providing too much damage hasn't been done by the virus. It's not just the sore surfaces letting bugs in, but a modification of the immune system as well. Pneumonia is still a dangerous by-product. https://heatonhistorygroup.org/2016/...gg-remembered/ |
BA flights for tomorrow seem to be operating both the Beijing and Shanghai..... at the moment according to BAs ops systems
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The rest of the cancellations will be going in this morning
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Meanwhile in the antipodes, a connection informs that Australian carrier Qantas last updated crew two days ago.
An email from the "union" supporting the company position says the risk of transmission is low and that it is difficult to spread to person to person... Thanks to the QF guys sending this... According to the union.. Today the WHO rolling like swine in excrement will reluctantly likely concede that this meets the criteria for a pandemic. The virus is not easily transmitted from person to person; unlike SARS. Advice from Flight Operations Management is that pilots should consult their Base Manager if;
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Everyone is running from/after this virus. The real plague is humanity really.
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SYD had the only direct flights into Oz from Wuhan. These are now suspended but on the Arrivals page there are still scheduled flights from Guangzou, Hong Kong, Chengdu and Shanghai.
Surely if they now say there are asymptomatic carriers, shouldn't they be routed through Christmas Island? |
When one compares the flu-related death starting at the end of WW1, humanity is doing very well. This is the first 'universal' response since EBOLA. We did well there and are responding well now. It's just the lack of knowledge that's holding people back.
It's been known for decades that viruses enter via the eye and its a short route to the brain-roof of mouth nervous system which is not protected as well as the brain. The blood-brain barrier (BBB) provides significant protection against microbial invasion of the brain. However, the BBB is not impenetrable, and mechanisms by which viruses breach it are becoming clearer.6 May 2012 |
Any schools in Australia not allowing kids of crew that have been to HK or China to attend school? Does anyone know?
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Question....
I have just disembarked from an internal flight in Thailand. The crew had been ordered to wear surgical masks. Probably 80-90% of the pax were wearing an assortment of masks ranging from basic surgical to almost full on Stormtrooper.
If the cabin had dumped at FL390 and they needed to don the O2, either over the mask or removing it first, how successful.would this have been? |
Well if a couple of hundred pax pose a virus problem - try a cruise ship - 7,000 folks not landing in the old town (for that is what Cittavecchia means) tonight.
Fortunately virus experts from Rome now on board. |
From the staff clinic today at an airline in Dubai.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9459186372.jpg |
Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 10675596)
From the staff clinic today at an airline in Dubai.
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....721a068bd9.jpg More than a little bit over the top for an illness that appears, so far, to be serious in relatively few cases and truly dangerous mostly for patients who don't get good supportive care. In any event, the disease appears to have a reproduction number of around three (it's early in the game for analysis) and an average latency period of about nine days. That means it will likely spread fast enough and widely enough that the world won't even come close to having the facilities to provide that level of isolation -- and, if the virus is transmissible before symptoms are evident, there would be no way to even guess which humans to try to isolate. |
You land. You go into isolation. You have one positive patient in the group. Now what? A new 14 days? Where would it end?
What kills you? The second patient, a 69-year-old man, also had acute respiratory distress syndrome. He was attached to an artificial lung or ECMO (extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation) machine but this wasn't enough. He died of severe pneumonia and septic shock when his blood pressure collapsed. |
From The Economic Times, January 25 (looks like Bloomberg News first):
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f5f62e00bd.jpg |
Reuters update:
Pilots, flight attendants demand flights to China stop as virus fear mount worldwideby ReutersThursday, 30 January 2020 23:58 GMT(Adds U.S. flight attendant reactions) By Tracy Rucinski and Laurence Frost CHICAGO/PARIS Jan 30 (Reuters) - Pilots and flight attendants are demanding airlines stop flights to China as health officials declare a global emergency over the rapidly spreading coronavirus, with American Airlines' pilots filing a lawsuit seeking an immediate halt. China has reported nearly 10,000 cases and 213 deaths, but the virus has spread to 18 countries often by plane passengers. The Allied Pilots Association (APA), which represents American Airlines pilots, cited "serious, and in many ways still unknown, health threats posed by the coronavirus" in a lawsuit filed in Texas, where the airline is based. American said it was taking precautions against the virus but had no immediate comment on the lawsuit. On Wednesday it announced flight cancellations from Los Angeles to Beijing and Shanghai starting next month, but is continuing flights from Dallas. APA President Eric Ferguson urged pilots assigned to U.S.-China flights to decline the assignment. In a statement, the American Airlines' flight attendants union said they supported the pilots' lawsuit and called on the company and the U.S. government to "err on the side of caution and halt all flights to and from China." Pilots at United Airlines, the largest U.S. airline to China, concerned for their safety will be allowed to drop their trip without pay, according to a Wednesday memo from their union to members. United announced on Thursday another 332 U.S.-China flight cancellations between February and March 28, though it will continue operating roundtrip flights from San Francisco to Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong. The American Airlines pilot lawsuit came as an increasing number of airlines stopped their flights to mainland China, including Air France KLM SA, British Airways, Germany's Lufthansa and Virgin Atlantic. Other major carriers have kept flying to China, but protective masks and shorter layovers designed to reduce exposure have done little to reassure crews. A U.S. flight attendant who recently landed from one major Chinese city said a big concern is catching the virus and spreading it to families, or getting quarantined while on a layover. "I didn't understand the gravity of the situation until I went there," she said on condition of anonymity, describing general paranoia on the return flight, with every passenger wearing a mask. "Now I feel like I'm on a 14-day countdown." Thai Airways is hosing its cabins with disinfectant spray between China flights and allowing crew to wear masks and gloves. Delta Air Lines is also operating fewer flights and offering food deliveries so crew can stay in their hotels. Korean Air Lines Co Ltd and Singapore Airlines are sending additional crew to fly each plane straight back, avoiding overnight stays. The South Korean carrier also said it was loading hazmat suits for flight attendants who might need to take care of suspected coronavirus cases in the air. Airlines in Asia are seeing a big drop in bookings along with forced cancellations because of the coronavirus outbreak, the head of aircraft lessor Avolon Holdings Ltd said, adding the impact could last for some months. The outbreak poses the biggest epidemic threat to the airline industry since the 2003 SARS crisis, which led to a 45% plunge in passenger demand in Asia at its peak in April of that year, analysts said. Air France, which maintained China flights throughout the SARS epidemic, suspended its Beijing and Shanghai flights on Thursday after cabin crews demanded an immediate halt. "When the staff see that other airlines have stopped flying there, their reaction is 'Why are we still going?'," said Flore Arrighi, president of UNAC, one of the airline's four main flight attendants' unions. |
U.S. State Department Level 4: Do Not Travel advisory.
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3cb5e00422.jpg https://t.co/BIIUdavoP0 |
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Originally Posted by jafar
(Post 10674652)
Some carriers distribute masks (we know hiw effective these are), some give nothing at all, others simply cancel their flights.
So as a flight or cabin crew, would you go to China if asked by your employer? In several European jurisdictions, it is very clear: Management must not knowingly expose crew to hazard. Airlines would find it very difficult to defend a decision to force a crew member to go if this virus continues to present itself as the real deal. |
Originally Posted by rjtjrt
(Post 10674967)
Very good info. However wearing a mask has some real value, as it makes it less easy to touch mouth/nose, and if a visor mask, eyes.
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Turkish Air Force A400M ready to evacuate citizens from Wuhan.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....123799ac70.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b3aff74bed.jpg https://www.internethaber.com/turk-v...i-2079708h.htm |
The R0 and the Case Fatality Rate are completely meaningless at the moment... the R0 because we have absolutely no clue how many have been infected partly because of those with mild illness who haven't presented at Medical care facilities and been tested and also the somewhat doubtful scale of reporting by the Chinese authorities. And the case fatality rate because most are still in the midst of their illness.... look at the statistics ... at the moment out of 11,000 confirmed cases 250ish have died, and 250ish have recovered... this leaves a heck of a
lot of uncertainty about the fate of the others and therefore the validity of that 2% case fatality rate |
having said that I take a bit of twisted comfort in the fact that in a normal year over 10,000 people per day die of respiratory infectious diseases
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The speculation, misinformation, scaremongering, etc. surrounding this outbreak are getting seriously out of control, around the world and the Internet, including here on PPRuNe. Everyone should stop spreading unfounded rumors and try to pay attention to the most reliable sources of information, from people who actually have the best-available data and the expertise to evaluate it:
UK Dept. of Health & Social Care Coronavirus Guidance US CDC 2019-nCoV Information WHO 2019-nCoV Information |
Originally Posted by Wonderworld
(Post 10677627)
Paul Joseph Watson is apparently connected to Infowars who said Sandy Hook never happened. Says it all.
Apparently, last spring, he was banned from Facebook and Instagram for "extremism." |
I second OldnGrounded in everything...sometimes Pprune are also suggested even on some aeronautical foruns, meetings, symposiuns, etc, along with avherald, jacdec, etc...tons of normal msm are coming here on a daily basis collecting info about aviation,,,IMHO its not healthy at all if we start falling in the typical conspiracy trends.
Paul Joseph Watson belongs to those illuminated who said Malaysia entered a time portal and its pax are now living along with dinossaurs and mammoths. |
Of course there are ongoing projects aimed at developing vaccines, and of course they are based upon understanding the genome of the virus. That does not mean that anyone knows the "required makeup" of a vaccine, only that there is data available to point researchers in the right direction.
I don't think my post implied that a vaccine would be ready tomorrow, merely that it is in production, albeit very early stages. This article provides solid and sensible information on the issue and is easy to understand: How Long Will it Take to Develop a Vaccine for Coronavirus? Note that one company asserts that it will have a vaccine ready for testing in humans within a month. That's a pretty bold claim (you can be pretty certain that it is aimed at investors at least as much as any other audience) and, even if it turns out to be accurate, the testing referred to is a phase one trial. Here, from the US National Institutes of Health, is a quick overview of the phases of clinical trials: Clinical trials are conducted in a series of steps called “phases.” Each phase has a different purpose and helps researchers answer different questions.
Letter to the New England Journal: Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in GermanyCNN story with comments by Anthony Fauci (who is definitely the real deal in epidemiology):'There's no doubt': Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms |
If it does indeed spread without the carrier exhibiting any symptoms, why on earth are these evacuation flights taking place? Surely containment is the best defence against further spreading of a virus, yet .gov's around the world are organising evacuation flights. Baffling.
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Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
(Post 10677836)
Of course there are ongoing projects aimed at developing vaccines, and of course they are based upon understanding the genome of the virus. That does not mean that anyone knows the "required makeup" of a vaccine, only that there is data available to point researchers in the right direction.
No vaccine is "in production." No vaccine will be "in production" until one is formulated and tested for safety and efficacy, first in cell culture, then in animals and finally in humans. This article provides solid and sensible information on the issue and is easy to understand: How Long Will it Take to Develop a Vaccine for Coronavirus? Note that one company asserts that it will have a vaccine ready for testing in humans within a month. That's a pretty bold claim (you can be pretty certain that it is aimed at investors at least as much as any other audience) and, even if it turns out to be accurate, the testing referred to is a phase one trial. Here, from the US National Institutes of Health, is a quick overview of the phases of clinical trials: Edit: A study from Germany that's just making the rounds appears to contradict the WHO observation, from yesterday, that transmission from asymptomatic carriers may be rare. Letter to the New England Journal: Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in GermanyCNN story with comments by Anthony Fauci (who is definitely the real deal in epidemiology):'There's no doubt': Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms |
Originally Posted by SMT Member
(Post 10678188)
If it does indeed spread without the carrier exhibiting any symptoms, why on earth are these evacuation flights taking place? Surely containment is the best defence against further spreading of a virus, yet .gov's around the world are organising evacuation flights. Baffling.
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Originally Posted by Ron Swanson
(Post 10678225)
Given the font size you have used on your link I would say this is serious! Cant believe I survived SARS and MARS and swine flue and ebola and BSE just to be killed by the shear size of your font!
Hope this helps. |
Originally Posted by SMT Member View Post
If it does indeed spread without the carrier exhibiting any symptoms, why on earth are these evacuation flights taking place? Surely containment is the best defence against further spreading of a virus, yet .gov's around the world are organising evacuation flights. Baffling.
Originally Posted by marchino61
(Post 10678236)
That's why the evacuees are being put in quarantine, I believe.
Given the number of carriers who have been moving with relative freedom all around the world since the initial outbreak, and the likelihood that each has passed the virus to two or three others (each of whom subsequently . . .), it's probably not possible to effectively prevent widespread epidemics, even a pandemic, with quarantine and isolation measures. The world just doesn't have sufficient facilities or resources. Fortunately, so far, it appears that the disease in severe in only a minority of patients and the case fatality rate is fairly low, so we may well escape a real catastrophe. |
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