Tracking of passenger's previous flights re. 2019-nCoV
In light of the coronavirus crisis, what technical means exist to track where a person disembarking had traveled previously?
Not just immediately preceding (connecting) flights, but flights taken within maybe the previous 2 weeks? Is tracking information from the use of smartphones available outside of NSA/CIA, etc? And if such information is available, is it being used to screen potential carriers of the virus? Thanks, George (slf) |
Originally Posted by Sriajuda
(Post 10673686)
In light of the coronavirus crisis, what technical means exist to track where a person disembarking had traveled previously?
Not just immediately preceding (connecting) flights, but flights taken within maybe the previous 2 weeks? Is tracking information from the use of smartphones available outside of NSA/CIA, etc? And if such information is available, is it being used to screen potential carriers of the virus? Thanks, George (slf)
Yes you can possibly trace the flights - but how many did our notional 'patient zero' actually manage to pass the infection to- not only on the flights? How many did they manage to pass the infection to 2 days after they were infected until they realized they were sick? Imagine a couple of immigration border protection officers that are infective handling hundreds of passports a day and giving them back. This is the reason for the world being a little on edge. The spread of a modern equivalent to the 1918 'Spanish Flu' would be infinitely faster and further. A lot depends on how infectious the disease is, some diseases need less than 10 infectious particles others require thousands. Now you know the reason for the panic |
Depends on how long PAX manifests are stored. Given that Germany plans within the next 24h
make a mandatory store of such manifests for 30 days ... well, not very long so far (likely also short due to GPDR) |
How comforting. :(
But it really comes down to what happens with pax (and flight crew!) upon approach/landing. If the past travel record is available for every single person on board a flight, why even let them disembark into the terminal?? We could cordon them off and put them into quarantine! No facilities? I call BS - given the will, the developed countries are more than able to "seize" hotel complexes (owner will be reimbursed) to house people for quarantine purposes. The only other option would be to ban entry from the most afflicted areas - but that still requires tracking of previous movements/locations of the people. I have the impression our governments are are f***ing doing s*it to try to stop the spread. And it is not just about spread & lethality - widespread fear and panic is enough to render our highly developed societies inoperable. When people don't come to work....supply chains, power generation, sanitation, etc... all go to sh*t. In a snap. I fear people, especially those in responsible positions, have NO idea how dangerous this situation is. G. |
They have plenty of idea - there's no shortage of data.
It's basically of the same order of magnitude of danger (transmissibility and mortality) as influenza. Flu kills thousands of people every year in Germany. Why don't you panic about that instead? |
Sadly, the spread of this virus worldwide(major cities etc) is inevitable due to it's nature and the interconnectivity of modern life. As mentioned above, it seems to be for the most part unpleasant, but not deadly. That said, if there are underlying health issues then the mortality rate would climb. Practice good and sensible hygiene when out and about and don't stress yourself overly as this won't help and might well hinder as it surpasses the immune system.
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@Paul852 Quite simple: Because we have "herd immunity" (and vaccination) to the common flu. Sure, it wipes out large numbers of people every year. People that (for the most cases) are pretty close to their end anyhow.
A new virus is vastly different. Do your research. I did. G. |
Combine threads?
Time to combine with the Funneling thread?
Arguments match up. |
Originally Posted by Sriajuda
(Post 10673802)
@Paul852 Quite simple: Because we have "herd immunity" (and vaccination) to the common flu. Sure, it wipes out large numbers of people every year. People that (for the most cases) are pretty close to their end anyhow.
A new virus is vastly different. Do your research. I did. G. Got any sources as a result of your research? |
Originally Posted by Paul852
(Post 10673813)
I would love to see any data which shows that this virus is killing anyone other than old, chronically ill, or otheriwse immuno-compromised patients.
Got any sources as a result of your research? Flu kills thousands of people every year in Germany. Why don't you panic about that instead? |
How about if the notional patient toured around China via car or train, possibly passing through Wuhan en route and then left China via Shanghai or Canton etc? What travel records would there then be?
Although this new virus is not identical to SARS, it has enough similarities to make comparisons valid. And SARS, after all the panic and hysteria that accompanied it, finished up with 8,900 cases and a 9.6% fatality rate. Which is not exactly world ending. |
Originally Posted by Paul852
(Post 10673786)
They have plenty of idea - there's no shortage of data.
It's basically of the same order of magnitude of danger (transmissibility and mortality) as influenza. Flu kills thousands of people every year in Germany. Why don't you panic about that instead? See Homeland Security Site - Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) |
@Paul852 Data on the current outbreak is both sparse and questionable, considering the source.
The general difference between outbreaks of a previously unknown virus and other known ones (even if mutated) is very well understood in epidemiology. As to the lethality of the new virus: We simply don't know enough. A new strain is bound to wipe out the infirm and old first, and quickly. But what about the healthy population? Again, we don't know yet. However, going from the Chinese official figures, it appears that the ratio between death and healed are about 2:1, at best 1: 1. That does not forebode well. But at this point in time, it is quite speculative. However, even if mortality is low, the unprecedented infectiousness (spread) of the virus alone makes it extremely dangerous. The new virus (just going by Chinese official numbers) has infected more people in 10 days than SARS in 6 months. And very renowned institutes in Hong Kong, the UK, Canada, Australia and elsewhere estimate that the real numbers are likely 10 times as high as the officially reported ones. And you still think this is under control? And why, for god's sake, don't we implement strict travel restrictions? Some countries have. North Korea, Mongolia, Hong Kong and some others. (Often hidden behind "We don't issue visas anymore)". Even if (my) fears are exaggerated, is it not better to err on the safe side? G. |
Here is a case of a person who never traveled to China.
Japan confirms coronavirus in man who hadn't been to China https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/japan-...hina-1.4786760Japanese authorities said Tuesday a man with no recent travel to China has contracted the novel strain of coronavirus -- apparently after driving tourists visiting from Wuhan, where a deadly outbreak began.The man in his sixties from Nara in western Japan drove two groups of Wuhan tourists earlier in January and was hospitalised on Saturday with flu-like symptoms, the health ministry said. |
@Longtimer Not the first case. The one reported German case is a guy who has not been to China, but contracted the virus from a Chinese woman from Shanghai during a company education/training in Germany.
She had previously met with people from the most afflicted areas. So, we already have evidence of a multiple-step transmission chain. In a single case - and how many other cases did they not catch at this point in time? I presume there are already 100eds, if not 1000ands of people infected in Germany alone. G. |
Originally Posted by Ian W
(Post 10673835)
It seems that where Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% initial assessments of Coronavirus are 3%
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She had previously met with people from the most afflicted areas. So, we already have evidence of a multiple-step transmission chain. |
Originally Posted by Sriajuda
(Post 10673839)
And you still think this is under control?
And why, for god's sake, don't we implement strict travel restrictions? Lest we forget, most of the otherwise healthy people who died with SARS in Hong Kong at least were killed by the "treatment", not by the disease. Professor Yuen Kwok-Yung (the head of microbiology at HKU then and now) is on record (South China Morning Post, 9 May 2003) as saying: "most SARS patients died because of the serious side-effects of the steroids". I hope that he has learnt his lesson from that. But I fear not. |
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