Weather situation looked challenging and will probably be found to be major contributor. Cold front with sharp wind shift reported at both Houston-Pearland and Galveston around time of incident. Above this low-level wind shift, strong low level jet from SW. Likely some severe turbulence and erratic winds in vicinity of sharp right turn made when left turn denied. Reports of "good weather" in area also credible as these conditions confined to immediate vicinity of the cold front and radar echoes. A few miles either side partly cloudy and warm, not overly windy at surface. Could even be a lightning strike on the fuselage contributing to this unfortunate outcome.
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I distinctly hear the sound of the word "Pull" from the GPWS system, and I think I hear the stick shaker going off too at 2:33 of the video
I took the snippet and slowed it down quite a bit, and repeated the bits. I have also separated the "OK" from the noise that proceeds it. You can clearly hear the lack of background noise on the OK portion, and then what sounds to me like the gpws "PULL" sound and maybe the stick shaker??!! |
Originally Posted by alcan60283
(Post 10398875)
I distinctly hear the sound of the word "Pull" from the GPWS system, and I think I hear the stick shaker going off too at 2:33 of the video
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I dont hear GPWS also the link arrival there is no way at that point he would be low enough for a GPWS right after he was calmly discussing going east or west with ATC.
Did anyone consider an explosion howsoever caused. |
Originally Posted by extreme P
(Post 10398863)
Has a Boeing windscreen ever been penetrated by a bird?
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...flight_heights Although personally I still feel this aircraft's age may have more to do with the sudden failure in question. I wonder if anyone has yet discovered the number of hours or cycles it had flown and/or any details of any previous accident damage repairs undertaken? |
Would be interesting to see the Flightradar24 tracks of aircraft on that same arrival, right before and right after Atlas’ crash. When all the tracks are overlaid it could possibly rule out weather if the tracks match. On the the other hand, if Atlas’ track was very different than other aircraft deviating in the area immediately prior and after the crash, that could signal that they encountered quite different flight conditions than those other aircraft. |
Originally Posted by Capvermell
(Post 10398907)
Although personally I still feel this aircraft's age may have more to do with the sudden failure in question. I wonder if anyone has yet discovered the number of hours or cycles it had flown and/or any details of any previous accident damage repairs undertaken?
According to FAA records, the airframe had accumulated more than 90,000 hours over 23,000 flights prior to its hull loss. In January 2014, the US Federal Aviation Administration issued a directive that ordered inspections of the elevators on more than 400 767s beginning in March 2014; the focus is on fasteners and other parts that can fail and cause the elevators to jam. The issue was first identified in 2000 and has been the subject of several Boeing service bulletins. The inspections and repairs are required to be completed within six years. |
Originally Posted by alcan60283
(Post 10398875)
I distinctly hear the sound of the word "Pull" from the GPWS system, and I think I hear the stick shaker going off too at 2:33 of the video
I took the snippet and slowed it down quite a bit, and repeated the bits. I have also separated the "OK" from the noise that proceeds it. You can clearly hear the lack of background noise on the OK portion, and then what sounds to me like the gpws "PULL" sound and maybe the clacker??!! https://soundcloud.com/jcamp2112/atl...cording-slowed |
Originally Posted by Hotel Tango
(Post 10398733)
I have to say that I find that a very strange statement to make at this point, even coming from a Canadair CL605 pilot.
At 6000' cabin pressure is no longer an issue. |
Can hear something in the background of the "OK" transmission, it sounds like an automated voice, it does sound like PULL but it could just be a bit of confirmation bias
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As usual on the first day following a major crash, the speculation outruns the factual information. There are several more possible failure scenarios not yet mentioned here which could have caused this apparent loss of control. I thought of quite a few myself in the first moments after reading the first couple of news reports. But I see little point in sharing them until there's at least some factual basis, however small, upon which to build theories as to the sequence of events which led to this crash.
I'm not satisfied to simply "wait for the report" either. However these things often take a little time to develop into the basis for informed speculation. When time-synced, the ATC radar and com recordings will provide some early clues. Examination of recovered wreckage may also reveal investigative paths to be further pursued. Finding the CVR and FDR is going to be a high priority in the early stages for obvious reasons.Finding them In the mud beneath 5 feet of water may present some challenges, but it's been done before. (in the Everglades at least twice that I know of) So fear not, in due course enough facts will emerge to facilitate informed speculation. Until then I have no basis to eliminate either any of my own or anyone else's pet theories. This is a normal circumstance. |
Boeing have built aircraft for a couple of years now, so I expect they have a clue on how long they last before problems set in.
I expect and the manufacturer that the "average" flight of a B767 to be much greater than 2 hours. So if the manufacture says 50,000 cycles (flights) is the limit, then we are talking way over 100,000 flight hours. But they are not concerned on hours - why are you? |
Originally Posted by extreme P
(Post 10398863)
Has a Boeing windscreen ever been penetrated by a bird?
The UK CAA put a restriction on maximum speeds at lower altitudes on the Boeing 757 aircraft due to a perceived weakness of the centre windshield pillar though. I do not believe it applied to the B767. |
Report from KHOU including eyewitness reports. They say the plane was low and then nosedived. The area where it crashed is shallow and muddy, with police working to ensure nothing is moved before the NTSB arrives today.
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Originally Posted by SliabhLuachra
(Post 10398795)
Forgive me, but am I hearing things at 2:33 here? Is there somebody shouting ''pull''?
https://youtu.be/rRirRCh3Xts |
There is something there, no doubt. I think it’s likely some ambient noise/comment rather than any kind of GPWS call-out. But it does, with a good set of cans on, sound quite similar to that played at normal speed. |
The FR24 data, as usual, contains numerous artifacts and synchronisation issues.
That said, once cleaned up it appears to show a slight but unmistakeable climb interrupting the descent just before reaching 6000', starting about 10 seconds before the beginning of the final dive. It's exaggerated, obviously, in this foreshortened view (apologies for the skewed verticals): https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....acd45a5f99.jpg |
Originally Posted by tubby linton
(Post 10399029)
The UK CAA put a restriction on maximum speeds at lower altitudes on the Boeing 757 aircraft due to a perceived weakness of the centre windshield pillar though. |
First fatal loss of a B767 on US soil since the 2001 NY events and worldwide since 2002.
Very lucky it didn't hit a mile out from the bay where the town is. RIP to the lost souls on board. |
Originally Posted by The Ancient Geek
(Post 10399153)
Very little evidence until we have FDR results but the sudden dive following a climb looks suspiciously like a possible stall.
Here it is in profile: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....233159755e.jpg Does that help ? |
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