Safest airline is Finnair or Qantas ?
Each time in the new-born year I'm staggered seeing two worlds collide.
In World1 there is a change on top Finnair displaced Emirates as the first airline in the world Whereas in World2 it steadfastly stays all the same https://www.traveldailynews.com/post...ntas-is-on-top Can anyone see through this without becoming a non-believer in such ratings at all ? |
If only there was a ratings site that rated the ratings sites ... :O
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Originally Posted by readywhenreaching
(Post 10351110)
Each time in the new-born year I'm staggered seeing two worlds collide.
In World1 there is a change on top Finnair displaced Emirates as the first airline in the world Whereas in World2 it steadfastly stays all the same https://www.traveldailynews.com/post...ntas-is-on-top Can anyone see through this without becoming a non-believer in such ratings at all ? Long ago, I remember a comparison of airlines based on the insurance premiums they were charged; that wasn't perfect, because very large airlines, apparently, got a discount just on the basis of volume, but still, insurance companies are professionals at risk. I don't suppose that information is available these days. Or have I missed the point entirely? |
Since the safest airlines are all very safe, the differences between the top ten are going to be very small indeed, so there's going to be uncertainty about the precise ranking, and whether an airline comes out at, say, number 3 or number 5 is pretty meaningless for a punter buying a seat. |
Originally Posted by Rated De
(Post 10351339)
How precisely does one measure something that having not occurred deems an airline 'safe'?
Astonishingly they only had one accident (and naturally failed to report it) but despite a public 100% safety record they were the most dangerous outfit imaginable. |
I was impressed by one UK newspaper headline stating: Safest Airlines for 2019. How useful for them to have been able to predict the rest of year. It is not just statistics they do not understand. :rolleyes:
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Originally Posted by Rated De
(Post 10351339)
How precisely does one measure something that having not occurred deems an airline 'safe'?
I am well aware that safety is a well developed discipline of which I am ignorant, but I'm still, genuinely, puzzled as to why those particular routine articles arouse ire. Is it that they include in the list of safe airlines a company which is known to be operating unsafely, and whose absence of accidents is purely a result of luck? When it comes to major carriers, I assume that ranking is very unreliable, but isn't there a certain use in attempting to pick out the low-cost operators that will get you there, in however much discomfort, as opposed to the operators who are likely not to get you to even near to your destination? |
Well, I think one measure, which is sort of accepted generally, is that the more chances something has to happen, but it doesn't, then, on the whole, as a rule of thumb, in default of any better measures, or would you rather use a horoscope? it is less likely to happen the next time. Which is consoling if that thing that doesn't happen is a crash. I am well aware that safety is a well developed discipline of which I am ignorant, but I'm still, genuinely, puzzled as to why those particular routine articles arouse ire. Is it that they include in the list of safe airlines a company which is known to be operating unsafely, and whose absence of accidents is purely a result of luck? https://s14-eu5.startpage.com/cgi-bi...ticache=435918 Quite |
Also look at route structure. Of all the majors, QF (apparently) have the fewest global destinations on their network - you could therefore argue that their threat exposure is significantly lower than other airlines flying all around Asia/Africa/S.America etc and this would certainly keep them up at the top. Maintenance standards are obviously high though and they identified very early on during QA assessments that the threat from fake parts coming from a few dubious countries warranted a major shift in focus and I believe it was they who set the standard for tracking non-OEM parts.
As has been alluded to, accident reports are not the true indicator of safety. Not 1 airline publishes any information on "almost" events that were saved by crew actions! :ugh: |
Originally Posted by petrichor
(Post 10352496)
As has been alluded to, accident reports are not the true indicator of safety. Not 1 airline publishes any information on "almost" events that were saved by crew actions! :ugh:
To not report something under ASAP is likely to bring far graver consequences than admitting someone or something screwed up and trying to figure out why. That's the whole point. To get back on topic, though, I agree that published numbers of this type are mostly meaningless, and less so in anything that relies on advertising revenue from circulation numbers... |
Originally Posted by Carbon Bootprint
(Post 10352717)
Yes, but if you're implying that such events are not shared within the industry I would beg to differ. While things may be much different in certain countries, activities like the FAA's ASAP Infoshare conferences allow airlines, airline unions and the FAA to speak freely of their experiences, problems and solutions. And by law they are shielded from lawyers and the press. :ok:
To not report something under ASAP is likely to bring far graver consequences than admitting someone or something screwed up and trying to figure out why. That's the whole point. Boeing keeps an on-line data base called COSP - Continued Operational Safety Program - where all the incoming reports are posted (I'd scan COSP one a week looking for events of interest to my area). The FAA has access to COSP (although my understanding was their access didn't include who the operator was) and they'd sometimes contact us asking for additional information. However as Carbon states, those reports are not available to the press or the public. I don't consider those press ratings to be worth the pixels they're posted with. Didn't Emirates end up near the top of one of those 'safest' lists right after they crashed a 777 by attempting an aborted landing with the throttles at idle? |
So accepting that the published lists in the press are oversimplified (as are all such ranking lists), is there any way in which a prospective traveller, flying into an unfamiliar part of the world where the airlines well-known to them don't operate, can choose between more safe and less safe airlines?
There seems to be a tendency to go rather rapidly from pointing out the shortfalls in rankings of this kind, to suggesting that no sort of ranking has any value, or perhaps that airline safety is a dark mystery, only known to insiders. |
Originally Posted by petrichor
(Post 10352496)
Also look at route structure. Of all the majors, QF ............... Maintenance standards are obviously high though and they identified very early on during QA assessments that the threat from fake parts coming from a few dubious countries warranted a major shift in focus and I believe it was they who set the standard for tracking non-OEM parts.
:ugh: |
If we are talking about the same german flight safety bureau doing these rankings every year, I wouldn't take their's overly serious. Homebrewn self-made statistics. Using some very questionable statistical standards and methods. Although they changed their system some years ago they still are more hobbyists than researchers. They make a living from selling "safety expertises" to individual travelers. Like aunty Else going to the baleares islands wanting to know the "safety ranking" of her airline.
Here is some more robust safety information to be found: https://aviation-safety.net The Aviation Herald |
Originally Posted by meleagertoo
(Post 10351705)
Quite. I once worked for an (UK) airline that did virtually no maintenance whatsoever, 4/5 of the fleet were unfit to fly in IFR, no defects allowed in the tech log, expectation to bust minima routinely...
Astonishingly they only had one accident (and naturally failed to report it) but despite a public 100% safety record they were the most dangerous outfit imaginable. |
Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
(Post 10353398)
If we are talking about the same german flight safety bureau doing these rankings every year, I wouldn't take their's overly serious. Homebrewn self-made statistics. Using some very questionable statistical standards and methods. Although they changed their system some years ago they still are more hobbyists than researchers. They make a living from selling "safety expertises" to individual travelers. Like aunty Else going to the baleares islands wanting to know the "safety ranking" of her airline.
Here is some more robust safety information to be found: https://aviation-safety.net The Aviation Herald |
Oh, aviation-safety.net and Aviation Herald are quite helpful if you are willing to do your own research.
Go do aviaton-safety.net, country index and look for your airline and possible also its subsidiaries or former names / entities. There was a time when AF had a hull loss every other year, as compared to other legacy carriers of similar size that had one ever 20 to 40 years. These days, they are doing much better, but if you look at the incidents, there are still quite a lot can be attributed to carelessness or complacency. You can apply this approach to any airline or airplane type. However, your I wouldn't bet that all incidents in Chinese airlines get first reported to the authorties and then make it into these two sites. |
Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
(Post 10353398)
...Here is some more robust safety information to be found:
https://aviation-safety.net The Aviation Herald |
Originally Posted by readywhenreaching
(Post 10354311)
How can I rate an airline in terms of operational safety on AvHerald or ASN ? They all about singular accident cases.
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Looking back doesn‘t necessarily tell you everything about the future. There is the old saying that any airline considering itself safe is in fact unsafe. Best advice might be to avoid government blacklisted airlines and maybe prefer profitable ones. |
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