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Originally Posted by Old Fella
(Post 10210685)
We can all speculate endlessly. A couple of things which I believe are, or at least could be, significant.
(1) The F/O was on his last training flight to type, and (2) the opportunity existed for one pilot to lock the other out of the cockpit. If either pilot left the cockpit and the other did lock the cockpit door it would have been a simple matter for the lone pilot in the cockpit to don his oxy mask and depressurise the aircraft. Time of useful consciousness, for those outside the cockpit without access to pressure breathing equipment, would have been minimal leaving the handling pilot to disable the transponder and ACARS. Of the two pilots it is reasonable to suspect the PIC would have the knowledge to do so. Why the autopilot would have been disengaged, and for how long, is anyone's guess. Whilst we may never find the answer my money would be on a deliberate act by one of the crew. |
Originally Posted by Wannabe Flyer
(Post 10211781)
Now can you imagine if he has also figured a way to somewhat deceive the IMMERSAT data albeit it by 5 Degrees?
And it's Inmarsat. |
Come on everybody, let’s use Occam’s Razor on this—This simplest solution is probably correct. This was probably caused by a single point of failure. No need for convoluted conspiracy/crazy pilot suicide missions. I suggest that could be the Crew Oxygen Bottle. Most Airliners have this vulnerability. It would cause massive electrical issues, decompression, and now from the latest report the autopilot is OFF, the aircraft was left meandering. It’s really not that difficult if you know how the avionics bay is constructed and how a disabled B777 once trimmed for cruise could fly on to fuel exhaustion. |
Originally Posted by birdspeed
(Post 10211957)
Come on everybody, let’s use Occam’s Razor on this—This simplest solution is probably correct. This was probably caused by a single point of failure. No need for convoluted conspiracy/crazy pilot suicide missions.
At the risk of stating the obvious, a "crazy pilot suicide mission" is also, essentially, a single point of failure. |
Originally Posted by flash8
(Post 10211188)
If all Pilots who had flight sim at home and obscure self-created FMS routes saved were investigated.. they'd be none of us left....
Perhaps you know someone who idly sets up pretend airports in the middle of oceans well out of the way of land? I can't say it's a practice that I have heard of. . |
Originally Posted by Volume
(Post 10211673)
The report clearly states that the altitude information from the primary radar does not match the capability of the aircraft (not only the absolute figures, but also the altitude changes), but is known to be very unreliable. It is simply not made for this, radar can detect direction and distance, the closer the plane is to the station the more reliably it can also determine altitude, but not at long ranges.
The report relatively often states, that details are not matching, that events can not be explained... It leaves a lot of room for speculation. I think they have produced a sound document, there is not much more you can do with the available information. |
I suggest that could be the Crew Oxygen Bottle. Most Airliners have this vulnerability. It would cause massive electrical issues, decompression, and now from the latest report the autopilot is OFF, the aircraft was left meandering. It’s really not that difficult if you know how the avionics bay is constructed and how a disabled B777 once trimmed for cruise could fly on to fuel exhaustion. There are so many incredibly improbable things that had to happen one after the other to make the aircraft follow the reported path on its own, that this can effectively be discounted. Alien abduction is probably orders of magnitude more likely. We are not talking about an event that caused a hull loss shortly after otherwise things like oxygen, batteries on fire, decompression, etc. would be high on the list. We have an aircraft that flies on for 7hrs in a way that experts tell us requires a (live) human on the flight deck, at least for the first couple of hours. If we want to talk Ockham’s Razor, then the simplest explanation is this was all deliberate action by at least one person (which they imply in the report). No repeated super-unlikely happenings required. Not the first time for something like this, either... |
At the risk of stating the obvious... Not talking about some trained people aft of the cockpit with portable oxygen, tools, communication equipment, access to the electronic compartment and probably some clever ideas. So it is hard to do this as a "single point". let’s use Occam’s Razor on this—This simplest solution is probably correct. The radar that provided the altitude information was apparently an Air Defence primary radar which does have height sensing capabilities which are normally accurate to within a few thousand feet And if better data should exist, we will probably never see it, neither did the official investigators. |
Windshield failure ?
I believe there had been some AD issues with windshields prior to this event |
Originally Posted by Volume
(Post 10212031)
There are obviously two persons on the flight deck, so it is not exactly a single point failure. Contact was lost immediately after some radio communicating showing that both were on the flight deck.
Not talking about some trained people aft of the cockpit with portable oxygen, tools, communication equipment, access to the electronic compartment and probably some clever ideas. So it is hard to do this as a "single point". And the suicide theory is just too complex for this. Too many things to be considered. Too many details to think of and plan for. The radar station in question was obviously just a "simple" one. No doubt, the military also has some equipment which allows to locate aircraft quite accurately, but not in permanent use. And not in the middle of the jungle... This was a station to cover a large area with low precision. Just look at the track plots. And if better data should exist, we will probably never see it, neither did the official investigators. 2. Suicide theory is the simplest. One person. One door. One Lock. |
Originally Posted by Volume
(Post 10212031)
There are obviously two persons on the flight deck, so it is not exactly a single point failure.
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Originally Posted by Andy_S
(Post 10212071)
Unless one of them .... is persuaded to leave.....
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Originally Posted by arketip
(Post 10211805)
How can the destination be obscure if all the information are there on the the sim?
The point is that if that area was in the sim, then that's a heck of a coincidence. |
It's hard to believe that no "military eye" of the satellites costellations overhead has seen nothing in this highly strategic area which include Diego Garcia with all its air and sea weapons... An aircraft went lost in this environment and nobody tried to track a possibile danger to the air-sea base? Maybe no one is keen to show up its detective capabilities to the "competitors"...
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Re Capricorn23's comments...
It seems (or as we say in investigation speak, "it is likely") that if the intent was to end the flight in a place where it would be very difficult to find, then whoever flew the aircraft apparently considered the optimum route to achieve that end. Which could be one reason that the track after rounding Sumatra didn't (apparently) get closer than 1200 miles or 2000 kilometres to Diego Garcia. The particular track chosen after Sumatra (as per Inmarsat data) appears to be close to an ideal track to end in an isolated area of vast deep ocean, whilst always remaining more than 1000 miles from any land. |
Why do people believe that there satellites monitoring air traffic below them just in case a rogue aircraft suddenly darts off towards Diego Garcia - it's the stuff of movies, surely?
Similarly, why do people assume that Diego Garcia is bristling with anti-air assets? Why on earth would they bother? |
French reopening the MH370 investigation
Just read an article on La parisian French newspaper that they will investigate the accuracy of the inmarsat data. maybe there is doubt after all .... http://www.leparisien.fr/faits-diver...18-7844253.php |
Some of us antipodeans need a little help with the translation, courtesy of google translate:
All countries concerned by the disappearance of the Malaysian aircraft in 2014 with 239 people aboard have given up. In France, the air gendarmerie continues its investigations. To date, France remains the only country to try to understand how the Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370 was able to disappear on March 8, 2014. There were four Frenchmen aboard: Laurence Wattrelos, her 14-year-old daughter Amber, his 17-year-old son Hadrien, and Yan the French-Chinese girlfriend of the latter. They were coming back from spring break in Malaysia. The presence of French victims allows our country to conduct its own investigations. All other countries concerned have now renounced. Today, it is the research section of the Gendarmerie Air Transport (SR-GTA) that continues the investigation at the request of justice. And at an angle that will allow to put everything flat, according to our information. The aircraft, a Boeing 777, rallying Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) to Beijing (China) with 239 people on board was never found. And investigations of all kinds from the many countries involved in this tragedy, often incomplete or fragmented, have not given anything so far, fueling all kinds of conspiracy theories without any certified element. Verifications of the technical data transmitted Malaysia has recently issued a 449-page report dismissing, without any evidence, the "damage" or "act of madness" of the captain. This very imprecise and ambiguous report also says "do not exclude the intervention of a third party", without specifying its real nature. Because nothing says that the captain did not schedule this flight to a very sophisticated suicidal operation. Which had already been one of the assumptions the first US FBI investigation. The gendarmerie of air transport (GTA) intends to verify the veracity and especially the authenticity of all the technical data transmitted. Notably provided by the British company Inmarsat, which has received the positions transmitted by the 777. These data are reliable? Certified? The gendarmes want the source of this data to understand the trajectory of this device. It is not excluded that an international rogatory commission authorizes them to recover the raw data transmitted at the beginning of the year. - One certainty in the case of the MH 370: the first turn made by the aircraft is voluntary, while it is off the coast of Malaysia and Vietnam, between two air traffic controls. A left turn that deflects the aircraft towards the sensitive border between Thailand and Malaysia. The aircraft then passes to the right of Kota Bahru International Airport where it could have landed in case of damage. Then drive to the Indian Ocean and also pass over Penang Island International Airport. Here again the MH 370 does not arise. Undetected depressurization? The 777 seems to have suffered a major power failure that generated in the jargon "a log off" preventing transmission for forty minutes. No doubt a breakdown with smoke on board. The ventilation system has been activated, but an incident may have damaged the pressurization system. "A typical symptom of a slow depressurization of the aircraft may have gone unnoticed or undetected by the pilots as it may be a secondary problem," said Xavier Tytelman, a former Army veteran. air and reputed aeronautical consultant. The slow depressurization leads to the loss of oxygenation in the cabin and crew and passengers sink into coma as the plane continues to fly towards a fatal crash. Such an incident occurred in Greece on August 14, 2005. Following an undetected depressurization of the cockpit, the pilots had fainted and the plane ran out of fuel, killing 121 people. READ ALSO> Disappearance of Flight MH 370: "This investigation hides things from us" FactsMalaysia AirlinesMH 370MH370 |
A slow depressurization going unnoticed would require a failure of both the O2 auto canin mask extension and the cabin altitude warning horn. It also would not explain the sequence of turns relative to the last communications with ATC. Someone was flying the plane. |
I'm kind of glad the French decided to continue to pursue this.
But I believe more information is needed before any reasonable conclusions can be drawn - especially about the guilt or innocence of the crew.. If they don't send Ocean Infinity back out there, I don't know where they're going to get that additional data. |
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