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Certificates issued before the withdrawal date by the competent authorities of the United Kingdom on the basis of the provisions of the Basic Regulation and its implementing rules will no longer be valid as of the withdrawal date in the EU. This concerns in particular:

Pilot licences, pilot medical certificates, certificates for pilot training organisations, certificates for aero-medical centres, certificates for flight simulation training devices, certificates for persons responsible for providing flight training, flight simulation training or assessing pilots' skill, and certificates for aero medical examiners, issued pursuant to Article 7 of the Basic Regulation;

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“Both commercial and private UK pilot licences would remain valid for use on UK-registered aircraft as the United Kingdom is a signatory to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Chicago Convention. Our licences are internationally recognised – including by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) – both now and after 29 March 2019.”

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The second set of risk assessments are also expected to touch on security concerns, with papers expected on firearms and precursor drugs. But a paper on aviation that had been anticipated – amid warnings that planes could be grounded in an extreme scenario – is not due to appear.

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One such treaty is the Multilateral Agreement on the establishment of a European Common Aviation Area (ECAA), which takes in all EU Member States and countries such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia, Iceland and Norway.

This Multilateral Agreement is a formal treaty, entered in the EU's treaty database, making it in every way equivalent to the EEA Agreement. And it too, by virtue of Article 31, includes a provision for termination, taking effect a year after notice has been given.

The effect of membership of the ECAA, afforded by the Agreement, is to bind the contracting parties to full conformity with the EU's aviation acquis, including measure concerning safety, the environment and consumer protecting, in return for which full access is given to the EU's internal market in aviation.

In relation to the vexed question of whether UK aircraft will be grounded after Brexit day – and whether aircraft registered by EU Member States would be prevented from using UK airports and air traffic facilities – it would appear that the status quo would apply and air operations may continue as normal.

Undoubtedly, in rejecting the interpretation of international law which would otherwise keep us in the EEA, the UK must also refuse to accept that our membership of the ECAA continues after Brexit day. And, in that case, given a "no deal" exit, the provisions set out in the Commission's Notices to Stakeholders would apply, respectively here and here.

The UK would thus cease to benefit from access to the skies of EU Member States and, on the basis of non-conformity with the safety provisions, UK registered aircraft would be refused landing rights in the territories of EU Member States, and UK airports could no longer be used by EU-registered aircraft.

The impact of a "no deal" Brexit on air operations would thus be extraordinarily severe, so much so that many pundits argue that the UK and EU would quickly come to a deal which will permit resumption of the status quo. In other words, a "no-deal" Brexit would not actually mean a no-deal Brexit, certainly in respect of aviation. With the agreement of a side-deal, we would have a no-deal deal.

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