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I'm surprised no one has mentioned the times article reporting that Brussels has banned easa from cooperating with the ukcaa on post Brexit arrangements.

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Thus, we had from The Times the claim that "Brussels bars aviation chiefs from preparing for no-deal", based on an unconfirmed assertion that the European Commission had intervened after the aerospace industry had contacted Barnier, specifically to prevent EASA and the CAA from holding talks.

However, had the paper taken more note of what I had written in my second piece, they would perhaps have understood that – in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement and the transition period - it is not possible for EASA to enter into talks with the CAA to secure the optimum outcome, a Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement (BASA).

This, I observed, is a full-blown treaty and can only be negotiated by the EU and the UK government. And, to do that, they need to use the formal procedure set out in Article 218 of the consolidated treaties. Such negotiations are way above the pay scale of the agencies and, as with the broader post-Brexit relationship, the negotiation process can only be undertaken once the UK has left the EU and formally acquired the status of a "third country".

Failing the settlement of a BASA, there is provision within the Basic Regulation (Regulation (EC) No 216/2008) for inter-agency agreements between EASA and the "aeronautical authorities of third countries" (Article 27). But, once again, the qualifying requirement is for the UK to assume the status of a third country.

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Either of the above solutions, of course, as Dr. North says, would only be possible following a negotiated Withdrawal Agreement after which UK would become a "third country" and enter a transition period to 31 December 2020. A "crash out" Hard Brexit with no Agreement and hence no transition period, would lead to Aerospace/Air Transport Armageddon.

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Prior knowledge of airspace and the aviation sector is an advantage but not necessary.

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Even if Mrs May succeeds in managing an “orderly Brexit”, the manufacturer makes clear it will “refrain from extending its UK suppliers and partners base” until it sees how the new relationship with the EU will work.

The prime minister’s promised transition phase that ends in December 2020 does not allow enough time to prevent disruption likely to cost the firm billions of pounds in delays, lost orders and angry customers, Airbus says.

“The clock is ticking. If we decide now that we need one or two months of additional inventory because we are worried about these components getting stuck in the docks of Dover or Calais, then from a contingency point of view I have to do something,” Mr Williams said. “These are decisions we are in the process of making right now. We are in the process of instructing our suppliers to begin ramping up safety stocks of components.”

Looking to future production increases, he said: “The question for me is should I be doing that in the UK with all the uncertainty that I have? Or should we be starting to prepare alternative sources so I can protect the business in the long term? We have to look after our customers and shareholders.” Expanding operations in China was one alternative being prepared, he added.

The company says it laid out its concerns at a private meeting with Mrs May, also attended by Rolls-Royce and others, three weeks ago.

Greg Clark, the business secretary, is understood to have been pressing big companies to go public as he and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, fight moves led by Boris Johnson to push the government into a more aggressive stance in Brexit talks. Mr Clark cited Airbus in a speech yesterday as he underlined the importance of a Brexit that did not stop the movement of highly skilled workers.

A government spokeswoman said: “We have made significant progress towards agreeing a deep and special partnership with the EU to ensure trade remains as free and frictionless as possible, including in aerospace . . . We do not expect a no-deal scenario to arise.”

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