It looks like it. And reason? Too early flaps retraction? In the same time, the HS have to be set into flight position. Failure, not in auto position? TOW and CG near limits?

One bit I have been musing about is the time of the accident, 0540 in the morning after they already had done a night flight from Moscow. Not the best for fatigue.

Karel, if anything is not set as required on the TU before take off, it will give you a config warning and the take off light won't go out. I'd be very surprised if the stab had not been set as required, of course if that was true, then we'd have a major suspect.

CG is regulated via fuel in the TU, so it should not have been a problem, but of course, who knows.

CAnt the TU154 make it Moscow to Syria non stop? It seems with such a light load a refuelling stop is a bit pointless. Could it perhaps have picked up some cargo in Sochi?

TASS reporting this morning quoting unnamed sorces (quoted by another source, for all that's worth..) that the FDR has been found, and that the most favored theory at present is 'engines ingested some foreign objects causing damage'. Multiple birdstrike... ?

Tu-154 plane’s flight data recorder recovered from water
The black box will soon be taken to Moscow for deciphering, according to the Russian Defense Ministry
© Artur Lebedev/TASS

MOSCOW, December 27. /TASS/. The flight data recorder of the Tu-154 plane of the Russian Defense Ministry that crashed in the Black Sea on Sunday has been pulled from the water, a law enforcement source told TASS. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed later that the black box had been recovered from the water.

"The parameter flight data recorder has been recovered from the water. The plane with the black box will soon depart from Sochi to Moscow where it will be deciphered by specialists of the Defense Ministry," the source said.

-50%
TASS: World - Tu-154 plane?s flight data recorder recovered from water

BBC radio reporting all Tu-154 flights suspended until further notice..........

At night ? maybe bats ..:hmm:

Yes, it is possible. Astronomers often observes migration birds at night pictures. TU5 has 3 engines and a loss of one of them should not be fatal. Uncontained failure? Multiple engine failure?

Geese are well known to fly at night. And seldom alone. Don't know if Sochi is far enough south for this to be likely this time of year. We'll soon know.
As regards the discussion about refuelling, it may make sense to round-trip it with cheap, readily available Russian fuel if uploading in Syria might be a lottery.
Again, not saying this is the case.

Bird strike ?

ATC `s remark was in the classic McEnroe style of "man you cannot be serious". To add to which mine would have been, as it was not Halloween witches riding on broomsticks may also be crossed off the list of probable cause.

Wonder if de-icing was needed and not done?

About de-icing...

Sochi is a resort city, on approximately the same latitude as Rome. Palm trees grow there. This should give you an idea about the climate.

ETA: Yes, they had the Winter Olympics. Speaks more of corruption than appropriate climate imho.

Mr Snuggles it's also where they held the last Winter Olympics. Typical Central Continental climate - hot summers and cold winters.

Post 17 has temperature +8 so forget that.

I live in Bucharest, other side of the Black Sea and only a little bit further north than Sochi. It's been a remarkably mild winter so far, very little precipitation (a day or two of snow at most that I recall), low single digits in the day and low (or should I say high?!) negative single digits at night right now. I fly out of Otopeni on average at least once a week if not twice and I don't remember seeing the deicers out yet this year.

(By contrast, two years ago it was around -15/-20 by mid December, which is if anything more normal. Last year's December was also mild but we paid for it with blizzards in an absolutely horrible freezing January and a somewhat rubbish spring...)



On the last point, I'm sure you'll not be surprised to learn that the weather at sea level and the weather a few thousand feet up a mountain can be somewhat different. Many of my friends are spending this time of year skiing in the Carpathians despite the mild winter down on the ground.

There are about 50 or so in operation, all by various gov agencies I think. Civ fleet must have been retired for some years by now. So on its own it's a non-issue.

Flight Plan Route
 

Im wondering why they stopped in Sochi?

I looked up the flight plan yesterday (forgot to copy will check tomorrow)its intended routing was in fact NOT a southerly route.
It was due to route East to avoid Georgian FIR-Azerbaijan FIR before heading south into Iran FIR then west into Iraq FIR finaly into Syrian FIR.
It was efectively due to fly east to route joining from the southerly position of the earlier plotted FR24 example.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/a...-85041#bef9574

Another TU-154 followed the sameroute dep URSS at 1500ish UTC.
RA-85072 was due to depart at 2310UTC but did not depart till after 0220UTC

Refueling ´planned in Mozdok
 

The refueling was planned for Mozdok but was changed to Sochi due to bad Wx at Mozdok.
https://sputniknews.com/russia/20161...terror-attack/

Happened very quickly after takeoff - unlikely to have been a party - possible engine failure, decided to turnbachk and stalled it.............

Why would they need to refuel at Mozdok, only 80 minutes or so out of Moscow?