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A single heat flash was detected by IR satellite at a time and location indicating a mid-air explosion of some sort. Since the wings appear to have remained attached to the fuselage, it would seem to suggest that the fuel tanks did not explode until hitting the ground - |
Why have Metrojet refused to release the cargo manifest? This only raises suspicion that something was being carried as cargo that should not have been, and that that cargo posed a potential explosive threat?
Alternatively, could something potentially explosive have been sneaked aboard in the cargo at SSH, that was not listed on the manifest? From here on in, Russian and AB investigators are going to be very reliant on the thoroughness of the scrutiny of the airport security and the CCTV records, by Egyptian authorities. This is not something that encourages reassuring thoughts about how any security breach, if discovered, will be treated. |
Metrojet refused to release the cargo manifest |
I can read it with great doubt, but if someone wants this "crazy Russians on falling apart planes" there you go: Airline staff have revealed the cause of the disaster
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I would treat all reports of that "heat flash" with caution. It was reported, then denied, then reported to be something else not the aircraft. Until it is confirmed by an official US/RU source, I would not build any theories on it.
That being said, there seems to be no mention by anyone of the (one or two) auxiliary fuel tanks in the rear cargo hold, which is essentially a purpose-built ULD and a standard fixture of 321s on longer routes. If the rear fuselage disintegrates, those would be dislodged and ruptured, liberating enough fuel to produce a fireball if ignited. |
Both absence of seats photos and very small probability about some messing with the loo is because plane was still climbing at the point of event, so pax was seated and fastened and any loo excursions was prohibited. Amazing. Are you a pilot? Do you fly as a passenger very much? The belt sign in many airlines comes off after transition (FL100-FL150) if in smooth air and nothing visible ahead that poses a turbulence threat. NB for the pilots, yes I know about transition down as low as A030. Trying to KISS |
onetrack, cargo manifest, as well as all other paper are now in hands of Investigation Committee of RF. I think that Kolavia staff was strongly advised about security of investigation and punishment for any "leak" which can be traced back to person who can make this document available to public before official release.
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Before we dwell too much on the absence of cargo manifest, a gentle reminder. This was a holiday charter flight, normally such flights are not permitted to carry commercial cargo, so the cargo manifest if existing at all should say NIL. (With 220 pax and their luggage, not much room for cargo anyway).
However SSH is a popular scuba diving destination, and every flight coming and going would have several sets of scuba gear as baggage on board. By regulation the scuba tanks must be empty and the valve open, however there is a similarly strict rule that all scuba tanks if left unpressurised for any period of time must undergo an internal corrosion inspection before filling and re-use. This is quite expensive (so much that more responsible divers rent at destination, makes more financial sense), so many are quite reluctant to fully empty tanks and sometimes there is a severe argument about this at check-in. Knowing Egypt, there is always the money... IF a scuba tank (in worst case, filled with pure O2) ruptured adjacent to a full auxiliary fuel tank, that could make a pretty big bang. Wild theory, but perhaps not as much as the butt in the poo. |
andrasz this theory was not unheard of (about scuba tanks) but also there was mentioned that to take own tank is too expensive so mostly diver lease them onsite.
Anybody familiar with 320/321 - where this trimmer part (on photos) is from? |
IF a scuba tank (in worst case, filled with pure O2) ruptured adjacent to a full auxiliary fuel tank, Why would it rupture? Most modern tanks have a "burst disc" so when left in a hot car one day if filled too much they vent safely. As mentioned above, divers do not usually travel tanks, pick them up locally, much easier. That is not to say it is not possible. Why don't the co2 cylinders on every lifejacket under every seat "rupture"? Why don't the on board pilot oxygen cylinders "rupture"? How come the champagne bottles on board do not explode? How come the tyres don't "rupture" on the rims? :ugh: |
Who dives with pure O2?
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Why would scuba tanks be filled with pure O2? You can't dive with it (it's poisonous below a few metres). A tank costs around £15-20 to service, from experience I really can't see why someone would deliberately check in a full tank.
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Who dives with pure O2? |
Scuba tanks
Scuba tanks are heavy. average Scuba tank would weight around 20kg. But regarding Sharm el Sheik diving business, it is much cheaper to rent them locally for average diver.
Technical divers might want to bring their specialized equipment with them. Also deep divers use pure O2 for breathing in very shallow depths after very deep dives to get rid of excessive nitrogen dissolved in body. But, all tanks that you take with you aboard, are required to be with open valves. Empty it means. So, if rules were followed then scuba tanks pose absolutely no risk. |
Pontius Navigator , I'm not so frequent flyer and also I mostly fly Aeroflot, but lately there is habit do not switch seatbelt lights off until complete leveling and advice to wear seatbelt buckled while ones are seated politely reminded by FA.
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@Kulverstukas
http://aviaforum.ru/attachments/a321_2-png.500027/ Where do come the yellow coordinates from? I just tried to find the place on google maps. The blue point top left with the "4.00 km" label is the last known fr24 position, with a gps altitude of 26400f... the blue point with the "0" label is the position where the trouble started... |
Life jacket canisters contain gas at lower pressure (CO2 liquifies at 900 psi, diving tanks are compressed to 3000+) and they have a much higher safety margin because the weight of the canister is far less crucial.
Nevertheless, life jacket canisters still have to be build to meet certain safety requirements in order to be allowed on the planes. But, for example, CO2 bike tire inflation cartridges (functionally identical to life jacket cylinders) are banned onboard. You don't dive with pure oxygen, but Nitrox 36 still has nearly double the concentration of oxygen, compared with regular air. |
Just side note. Head of Investigation committee of RF flew back home from Cairo today without chances to visit crash site - yesterday he was not allowed because paperwork was not done and today because of severe weather at site.
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