On the Sky website it does say

(my bold)

To be fair, Sky News are reporting that they think there are survivors, its now on the ticker tape on the bottom. They did say it was a single source

Looking at the revised FR24 data linked in post #40, that reported temporary excursion to FL330 is almost certainly spurious.

No, the State of registry only has responsibility for an investigation if the occurrence takes place outside the territory of any State.

The AAIU's status will be that of an accredited representative to the investigation.

Wondering the nationality of the flight crew. Whilst they may have a different attitude to risk, Russian crews are some of the best handling crew I have had the privalidge to meet. So loss of control would be be a surprise.

In the Russian media it was announced that the crew was Russian, with both pilots having "great experience". However, in some forums it was written that the captain did not fly 321 for a long time....

Loss off control by Russian pilots Icepack? So what caused an Aeroflot 310 to plunge into the Siberian countryside at an incredible rate of descent?
Or how about the Perm 737 crash?

Nothing against the Russian fliers myself - we've seen LOC all too often by any nationalities recently but I just have to question Icepack's objectivity...

....with the tragic loss of life that has only just occurred it must be very tempting for PPRuNe just to say to hell with this and block all "discussion", as a mark of respect, for 48 hours or so....

Confirmed black box found
 

Confirmed : black box found

Sky News now reporting that Egyptian authorities have found the black box flight recorders.

Abnormal V alpha prot?

Boxes found
 

Beeb are reporting wreckage, black boxes found. Also bodies of pax in seats.

My experience of Egyptian ATC is that it is very poor, it is often very difficult to establish contact and a response can be "erratic". If indeed the crew were trying to declare an emergency it may well have been difficult due to congested and poorly managed ATC frequencies.

What we know so far
 

BBC are reporting (reliable ?) information now that rescuers are on site.
The aircraft is in 2 parts, there was a fire in the rear portion.
Rescuers are recovering bodies still strapped to their seats from the front portion.
The CVR and FDR have been recovered,

This implies a controlled forced landing which in turn implies a double engine failure. On the basis of this very limited information I woud be asking questions about the fuel supply.

Until the recorders are decoded everything is, of course, speculation and at this early stage the reports which we have are still suspect.

Sorry TAG...
 

This is empty BS.
A power off emergency landing is highly survivable. Done successfully numerous times.
Futhermore it would take at least 15 minutes do glide from FL310 to ground, plenty of time for mayday calls, position information etc.
This was an uncontrolable high speed dive. This is for sure.

It's so frustrating that 90% of the posts here are meaningless speculation.:confused:

With no communication and ADS-B signal stopped in air?

With a dual engine failure:
-there's time to get a mayday
-there's time to get a 7700 out
-you'll enter a fairly shallow descent if there's no fuel, a slightly steeper one if there is fuel in order to try a restart. There's no plunging involved like this plane.
-glide distance in still air will be about 70+ miles
-you'll be turning the aircraft away from high ground, this aircraft went straight on
-there are flat dried river beds in the area, no way would you head for the hills for a forced landing

As it stands, there's no evidence of any of these occurring and in my opinion there's no evidence of a dual engine flame out.

We have the aircraft in two parts which to me suggests an inflight breakup. What caused that and wether it was internal or external is unclear at this time. I can find no evidence of severe weather and the plane won't just fly iteself into coffin corner with gay abandon like others have suggested so speculation about it being too heavy or above the max alt is pretty fruitless.

AP update
 

The AP is reporting "Russia's Investigative Committee, the country's top investigative body, has opened an investigation into the crash of a Russian passenger jet in Egypt's Sinai peninsula for possible violations of flight safety procedures.
Committee spokesman Sergei Markin made the announcement in a statement Saturday."

Reports now the pilot requested an emergency landing at El Arish airport

Would be interested to know if this airline routinely carries dangerous goods.

We don't know that ADS-B data stopped being sent, only that FlightRadar24 stopped receiving it, which isn't the same thing and may simply be a receiver range vs altitude issue.

Hard to avoid that conclusion. After allowing for the fact that FR24 populates some data items that it hasn't picked up, what's left indicates that shortly before data was lost the aircraft was descending at 15-20,000 fpm and a relatively low groundspeed.

No survivors

PAX manifest; 214 Russian, 3 Ukraine:
?????? ?????????? ???9268 ??????????????? ???????????

Poor quality fuel? I'm guessing fuel from the same
source will be tested.

OMG!...
 

Surprised by the big number of "crash investigators wannabes" that have nothing to do except posting an huge amount of ridiculous speculations!:ugh:

Same aircraft had a tail strike in 2001:

ASN Aircraft accident Airbus A321-231 F-OHMP Cairo International Airport (CAI)

/A

@ Icepack:

Having a "different attitude to risk" (how diplomatic of you...) is just as likely to lead to loss of control as diminished handling skills.

ITV(UK) Quoting Egyptian security forces as saying the plane crashed due to technical reasons.

Quite how well the Egyptian security forces are trained in aircraft accident investigation I'm not sure...

Initial exam suggests plane crashed 'due to technical fault' - ITV News

Tragic news.
I would think the Egytians will be keen to demonstrate this was not terrorist related and knowing how they tend to only tell you what you want to hear rather than fact, I'd be very cautious of any early diagnosis.

8 hours on, a short summary of information from sources appearing to be credible:

Based on FR24 data flight was in a ~500fpm steady climb passing FL310 when at 04:13 UTC there appears to be a sudden drastic drop in airspeed accompanied by a ~6000fpm descent. Data ceases ~25 seconds after initial upset, with last recorded altitude of FL280 consistent with rate of descent data.

Wreckage was reportedly found in the Hassna area. Even if taken broadly, the location is 30-40km from LKP, inconsistent with last FR24 registered airspeed (implying a ~300kt airspeed at registered ROD).

Wreckage was reported to be found in two major sections. Latest reports say bodies are found in a 5km radius surrounding main wreckage. If true, this would confirm an in-flight breakup.

Aircraft has suffered a tailstrike 14 years ago with a previous operator which has caused substantial damage.

An Egyptian official is quoted saying that the plot contacted ATC reporting engine trouble, but these remain unverified from any credible source. Same official is quoted that the crash was due to 'technical reasons', again without any verification or further elaboration. For the present, neither statements may be considered credible.

Egyptian government sources were quick to deny the possibility of a SAM downing the aircraft, however other possible foul-play was not ruled out. Given that it would be in Egypt's best interest to do so, this lack of such response could be significant, as is the fact that the Egyptian PM together with several ministers headed to the Sinai to "oversee developments" soon after the wreckage was first reached.

On the other hand, no group has claimed responsibility for the accident in the first 8 hours, as it would have been expected in case of any terrorist action. Any such claims popping up now are clearly reactive and unfounded.

A few clues
 

1) It is foolish to rely on FR24, the sytem works by collecting data over the internet from amatuer ADSB receivers owned by enthusiasts and joining the dots. There are plenty of these stations in well populated areas but the chances of any reliable receiver data in the middle of an enormous desert are a tad slim. In these circumstances FR24 extrapolates (guesses) by extending the last known trajectory until it recieves a valid report or times out.
It is therefore not possible to derive a rate of decent from the last guessed postion and a single and possibly unreliable following report.

2) "Vanished from radar" does not imply a problem, it just means that the aicraft moved outside of the limited coverage range of a civilian airport radar.

3) Anyone who uses the word "Plunge" is either a tabloid journalist or one of their clueless readers. Best ignored.

Bribing may not be a requirement, there's a fair amount of adherents to the cause in the region.

Sharm was listed as a high risk location from ISIS terrorism earlier this year. Russia has just started engaging with ISIS in Syria. Now, this is circumstantial, of course, in relation to the destruction of the Russian operated A321.

Lets wait and see what a trusted investigation reveals from the FDR/CVR.

In all of these sorts of events, there's a rush from terrorist groups to claim it.

I mean, it could be, but they claim falsely all the time.

NOTAM WARNING
 

Given the very emphatic NOTAM regarding the danger in the area why werent measures taken to detour the Airway tracks to keep traffic within Radar coverage?

The sudden and marked changes in flight condition due to the upset and possible structural failure at altitude are all more to do with some kind of catastrophic event.

Time will tell..but I suspect that NOTAM is somehow a relevant pointer even if geographically/altimetrically off the mark. That information might have been sourced from military intelligence apparatus.

As for those trying to incite panic stations no such military fall out will explode at the iron dude's dictate.That is no Syria.There are a number if nations in the vicinity of Sinai that will keep him in check.

As a rule of thumb, no such claim should be considered valid if issued more than 1-2 hours after the actual event, and/or after the news have propagated through mass media.

Telegraph cites PPRUNE

Please all bear in mind that the media read this forum in an effort to fill column inches.

@TAG

While the second part of your comment is correct, the Sinai is far from an "enormous desert". While FR24 appears to be blocked in Egypt, Beer Sheeva/Eilat/Aqaba are all within 100nm of LKP, and Tel Aviv is under 200nm, the effective range of such amateur ADS-B receivers. FR24 data over the Sinai is likely to be reasonably valid.

If you look at FR24 there are several a/c over the Sinai being tracked in real time with good data right now, along the same routing as was taken by the accident flight.

I just seen the ambulances carrying the bodies
 

My report from Cairo , as driving in one of the main roads in Cairo I've seen not less than a 25 ambulances accompanied by police cars. I can confirm that some or all of the bodies are in Cairo now

Speculation about real stuff, please?
 

Hi, all. Frequent lurker here. There's always a lot of noise after an incident, most of which is unhelpful. Among the unhelpful: (a) news updates - that's what BBC is for; (b) wild-assed speculation - Islamist SAMs, really?; (c) outrageous but easily-disprovable statements - bodies in seats claimed but no site photos; and (d) complaints about speculative rumor mongering.

What I find to be helpful are FACTS/rumor-mongering that calls on the unique knowledge-base of the folks here. For example: (1) Any INSIDE info from the relevant ATC? (2) Rumors as to how long until the authorities release/leak the relevant data traces? (3) Friends w/knowledge in USN/IDF? (4) SPECIFIC engine & repair history to this SPECIFIC airplane (i.e., more than "significant tail strike"); (5) experiential info w/relevant investigational authorities (are they corruptible? competent?); (6) real-life data w/r/t speculation (i.e., if mucky fuel is suspected, experience w/relevant vendors & airports); (7) flaws of commonly-sourced data reports (i.e., Flight24's dependence on x, y, z sources; ACARS, etc.); and (8) rampant speculation based on FACTS.

I may have a different take, but I'd rather be accurate than first-to-post. Speculation that's based on second-hand reporting by non-industry journalists is not only totem-pole hearsay, but it's also almost invariably wrong.

For the experts..

FR24 shows climbing ar 30k feet, constant speed of 400 knots, than sudden spike in altitude with a speed dropping, 32k and 100 knots...that it does not look as a lack of coverage of FR24, it seems a real info, if was estrapolated it would not show sudden variations.

It can be explain?