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-   -   Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/565335-flaperon-washes-up-reunion-island.html)

PrivtPilotRadarTech 6th Aug 2015 00:47

There is a lot of aluminum in a 777, I think it would be easily tracked by radar. Consider that they are tasked with detecting much smaller fighters. If I may reveal classified info from the cold war, my radar had a 240 nm range and I could see targets at max range, coming from Oregon headed for SFO. Big fat arcs. This modern radar is surely much better. A big reflective target up high, out of ground clutter is easy to track. If you search google images for "military radar plot from pulau perak" you'll see a cell phone photo of a graphic shown to the Chinese relatives of the missing. It shows a gap in the middle of the 200 nm track of MH370. I think the only explanation for that is MH370 flew low enough to drop below the radar horizon, then climbed and reappeared.

Interflug 6th Aug 2015 06:13

Malaysian misinformation saga continues
 
What is the rational of the Malaysian government, if there is any, to distort the findings and speak about positive confirmation that the part is from MH370, when in fact no such positive identification has taken place, and the French only speak about strong presumption - "très fortes présomptions" - based on the conjecture that no other 777 flaperons are known to be lost in the area? The Malaysians sound like amateurs. Is that the same government that was leading the investigation until now? Note that neither the French, the Chinese or the Australians, parties who all had experts present at the initial examination of the flaperon as well, made such fallacious statements.

edit:
and then, OF COURSE, the idiotic press en suite, reiterating the fallacy as if it were fact.
Réunion debris belongs to MH370, Malaysian PM confirms ? as it happened | World news | The Guardian
And then we get the sheeple here with the inflationary posts "why don't you accept the facts, you conspiracy nut", not knowing the differences between a fallacy, a hypothesis and a fact.
It's hopeless, pure madness...

DaveReidUK 6th Aug 2015 06:51


Originally Posted by Interflug (Post 9072266)
and then, OF COURSE, the idiotic press en suite, reiterating the fallacy as if it were fact.

You need to re-read your sources. The "fact" that the press are reporting is simply that the Malaysian PM has made an announcement to that effect.

This (from the same link that you quoted) doesn't sound like unquestioning acceptance to me:


According to the French prosecutor in Paris, the investigators’ conclusion remains only a “very strong presumption” based on Boeing’s confirmation that it was a 777, and “specific technical characteristics” communicated by the Malaysian Airlines engineers in Kuala Lumpur.

That seems to suggest no definitive serial numbers have been immediately found on the part, but it could potentially mean that some part of the maintenance regime over its years of service have left an identifying mark.

PrivtPilotRadarTech 6th Aug 2015 07:24

It's disappointing that they say the identification is based on vague “specific technical characteristics” instead of saying exactly what they found. I guess we'll just have to wait. Meantime, the controlled ditching theory is looking strong. Tracy Lamb, aviation safety consultant and former Boeing 737 pilot: “It looks like the flaperon was broken off by the engine pod ripping off as it was dragged through the water on the initial impact.” I favored the uncontrolled phugoid/spiral impact, based on the evidence of fuel exhaustion, and figured the lack of debris was due to the 9 day delay before they started searching off Australia, plus the vast area.

Pontius Navigator 6th Aug 2015 08:14

Aerobat


you can surely exclude 360,s since an nearly "stationary" aircraft would be recognized by doppler effect , but - as far i understand it - the cannot say anything about what path the aircraft took between the seven pings , what altitude it had at all and what speed it had between the pings .
This was discounted on the previous thread. Had the aircraft been doing 360s, it would have had to be heading away at every ping to avoid high Doppler. Given the the Times for each ping was unknown to the pilots we can assume the aircraft Did not make several orbits - one possibly, more,unlikely.

slats11 6th Aug 2015 12:49

The absence of any cell phone call / SMS as plane crossed back over the Malaysian peninsula suggests passengers / crew were incapacitated by that time.

240 pax and crew. Figure well over 100 cell phones using a variety of carriers. Phone reception is low quality, but intermittently present around FL200. Surely someone would have got an SMS or call out.

So I suspect all but the perpetrator (s) were incapacitated by hypoxia by this time. There were early reports that plane climbed to FL430 after transponder and ACARS ceased - not sure if this was ever verified. Even FL350 will do it with packs off.

gawbc 6th Aug 2015 13:05

I did put it in inverted commas, and yes it broke up but there were very large pieces ISTR.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvtYtvd5x60

A controlled ditching surely would give even bigger pieces (hmm, completely dependent on sea state - I guess you might control it but the sea is so bad that's largely irrelevant) - somewhere between the Ethiopian 767 and the A320 on the Hudson.

MATELO 6th Aug 2015 13:36

slats11


The absence of any cell phone call / SMS as plane crossed back over the Malaysian peninsula suggests passengers / crew were incapacitated by that time. ]
Not really, they would have no need to make a phone call if they thought the flight was doing as it should.

Undertow 6th Aug 2015 13:38

This was reported by multiple media sources back last year.

Malaysia Airlines MH370 co-pilot's phone 'was on and made contact with network tower' 30 minutes after plane turned around - Asia - World - The Independent

The mobile phone belonging to the co-pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was switched on and made contact with a network tower 30 minutes after the plane is believed to have turned back, it has been reported.

A US official, citing information from Malaysian investigators, has told CNN that a network communications tower in Penang, Malaysia, detected first officer Fariq Abdul Hamid’s mobile as it searched for signal.

The official repeated the claims of Malaysia’s acting transport minister, Hishammuddin Hussein, that despite reports at the weekend there was no evidence the phone actually tried to make a call.

===========
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: Co-pilot's cell on, U.S. official says - CNN.com

The official told CNN's Pamela Brown on Monday that a cell-phone tower in Penang, Malaysia -- about 250 miles from where the flight's transponder last sent a signal -- detected the first officer's phone searching for service roughly 30 minutes after authorities believe the plane made a sharp turn westward.

igs942 6th Aug 2015 13:44

Quote: Not really, they would have no need to make a phone call if they thought the flight was doing as it should.


If this was a deliberate, well planned incident (as it seems it may have been), the perpetrator would probably have considered the possibility of people having the moving map on their screens and therefore starting to raise questions when they saw the flight begin to veer off course.

Bobman84 6th Aug 2015 13:44

There was mention of the flaperon having had a date on it consistent with the construction of the actual aircraft, which I believe was circa 2002.

tdracer 6th Aug 2015 14:07


A controlled ditching surely would give even bigger pieces (hmm, completely dependent on sea state - I guess you might control it but the sea is so bad that's largely irrelevant) - somewhere between the Ethiopian 767 and the A320 on the Hudson.
If you assume a 'successful' ditching, there would be very little actual debris - basically one really big piece (the aircraft), and some smaller pieces such as the engines and control surfaces. The engines are heavy and would sink straight away, the aircraft itself might float for an extended time (depending on the degree of damage from the ditching) but would eventually sink leaving little if any trace. The wild card would be the control surfaces that ripped off during the ditching - they are lightweight and could float indefinitely.

Which, interestingly enough, is exactly what we currently have.

lomapaseo 6th Aug 2015 14:28


If you assume a 'successful' ditching, there would be very little actual debris - basically one really big piece (the aircraft), and some smaller pieces such as the engines and control surfaces. The engines are heavy and would sink straight away, the aircraft itself might float for an extended time (depending on the degree of damage from the ditching) but would eventually sink leaving little if any trace. The wild card would be the control surfaces that ripped off during the ditching - they are lightweight and could float indefinitely.

Which, interestingly enough, is exactly what we currently have.
I quibble with the word "exact"

We only have one piece of control surface and it could have departed in any number of ways.

Now if we find more surfaces like this than maybe we have a hint

EEngr 6th Aug 2015 14:47

Deployed or not?

I'm waiting to see if the DGA lab can determine anything about the deployment state of this flap. Deployed might mean that the flight crew was in control of the aircraft at the point of ditching. On the other hand, if it was deployed earlier, it could mean that the plane was traveling slower and in a higher drag and fuel consumption configuration and that the range and calculated ditching point are incorrect.
:8

Volume 6th Aug 2015 15:11


Now if we find more surfaces like this than maybe we have a hint
There are not too many "surfaces like this" on a 777. The landing gear doors maybe, the ailerons. Not too many of the parts are sandwich composites, not too many paerts are small and strong enough to basically stay in one piece, and not too many are likely to rip off in a controlled ditching.


Can the emerg pax oxy sys be deactivated so it won't fall down at the preset alt ?
Knowing that they do not fall down when you switch off all electrics... There should be a CB you can pull to prevent activation. You may however still release each of them them manually, if you have the right tool (the FA should have it), so definitely blocking them from a closed cockpit is not possible. Crew has separate portable oxygen supply which allows them to walk through the cabin and activate them one by one.
However, pax oxy is designed to allow a 20 Minute descend, not a 7 hrs cruise. I have no idea whether your wakeup time is in any way depending on the time you were unconscious due to hypoxia, or whether you will always wake up once you have enough oxygen supply.


Ethiopian did not do a controlled ditching. It hit the sea at high speed in a level attitude and broke up whilst the Capt fought with the hijacker.
It especially hit shallow water with submerged rocks. Many pieces of the wreakage did not sink, as it had ground contact.
I sometimes wonder how certain information is created, but that captain was joining a TV show the evening after the crash (I watched it that night) and explained in detail, that he was unable to estimate the altitude without clear reference, and tried to keep one wing low in order to notice when he really touches the water. The next day he was celebrated as an hero in the press. Strangely this version never made it into the official report, and the guy completely disappeared (contrary to Sully).

From a stricly logical point of view, if you take a lot of effort to let the aircraft disappear, you will probably go all the way to ditch it as intact as possible to minimize the risk of anything being found. If you do not care about that, why not crash it on the spot north of malaysia? So if the aircraft was deliberatly flown for 7 hours as far away from the shore as possible, a controlled ditching makes perfect sense to complete the plan.

igs942 6th Aug 2015 15:34

Differential Pressure
 
Would it be fair to say that even a fully intact fuselage would still create a debris field as any area with air pockets would rupture as it sinks when the differential pressure exceeds the design limitations? With a differential pressure limit of around 9 psi + 14.5 psi at sea level, you wouldn't get past a depth of 60ft before areas begin to implode and release contents.

rigpiggy 6th Aug 2015 19:02

you ever try using phone at altitude, hits too many cells, and they shut off the service"billing purposes"

Severe Clear 6th Aug 2015 20:58

Nonsense... Press quotes that add to you post
 
"dissonant" (official) "comments infuriate"...to say the least,

*Headline:"Plane window recovered from Reunion Island, Malaysian transport minister says"
*(Published August 6th 2015)
**HEADLINE: "Differing Message on 777 Part frustrates Flight 350 Families"
**AP (published August 6th, 2015 20:55 UT)

Selected text...:
"A Malaysian team has collected other plane debris including a window and some aluminum foil on Reunion Island near where a flaperon was found last week, Malaysia’s transport minister said on Thursday.

However, Liow Tiong Lai says he can’t confirm whether the debris belongs to Flight 370, which vanished on March 8, 2014 with 239 people on board. “I can only ascertain that it’s plane debris.”

"Authorities from France, the U.S. and Australia have stopped short of full confirmation the debris is actually from the missing plane. Liow reaffirmed the prime minister’s comments on Thursday and said differences with other countries amount to “a choice of words.”

"They want to continue with additional tests. We respect their decision," Liow said of the French. "From our first observation, the color tone and all maintenance records that we have, we know. Our records show that it's the same as MH370."

"He said there are "many other technical details that I do not have to reveal" but that confirm the part is from Flight 370.":ugh:

"The confirmation from Malaysian Prime Miniser Najib Razak that the flaperon was from MH370 has been met with skepticism and anger ..."

"Ross Tapsell, a Malaysia expert at the Australian National University, said he suspects Najib was trying to distract Malaysians from a corruption scandal. On Monday, Malaysia's anti-corruption agency said that $700 million in Najib's personal bank accounts came from donations, not from a debt-ridden state investment fund." :confused:


*Full story with a less than accurate video:
Plane window recovered from Reunion Island, Malaysian transport minister says | Fox News

**Full Story with more details...:
AP
**My Way News - Differing messages on 777 part frustrate Flight 370 families

Sober Lark 6th Aug 2015 21:11

Agree with Severe Clear. I have heard the French have not confirmed this piece is from the Malaysian aircraft. They have a high suspicion but at this point in time they are not certain. The Malaysian's took it upon themselves to make the announcement.

DX Wombat 6th Aug 2015 21:26

On BBC Radio 4 News this evening it was reported that France has announced that a new search for the missing aircraft will be made around Reunion.

PrivtPilotRadarTech 6th Aug 2015 22:02

The description of the "other aircraft debris found" is "pieces of windows, seat cushions and aluminum". Sounds a lot like the sewing machine piece and tea kettle, and the seat cushion the beachcomber said he burned. In other words, he's just repeating stuff from the news.

patrickal 6th Aug 2015 22:13

OK, someone please explain this article which just appeared. How would the discovery of the flaperon validate a beacon from one of the black boxes? I am sure that either Boeing and/or Malaysia Air would have know the make and model of both black boxes prior to this weeks discovery. And if by some crazy point this article is accurate, does that mean the search goes back to where these signals were first heard????

Wreckage from Malaysian jet validates signals from Redmond-built black box - Puget Sound Business Journal

Chris Scott 6th Aug 2015 22:30

igs942,
You're assuming the fuselage's pressure hull was not breached on impact? If so, it would be unlikely to sink. But, if it did, the figures of diff. pressure you are using are positive values, i.e., the cabin is designed to withstand a higher pressure than the exterior (opposite of a submarine). So a/c have inward relief valves that open at about -0.5 psi to stop the hull being squashed by negative differential AIR pressure if the a/c descends too rapidly. If, for whatever reason, the cabin was intact but sinking rapidly, the inward relief valves would probably be inadequate. So the end result might be as you said. But such a scenario seems incredible.

As has been said, Réunion is remote and about 30 n.m. in diameter, so the chances of any one piece of floating debris making a landfall there after travelling thousands are similarly remote. If a flaperon from MH370 has indeed achieved that, it’s likely that it was not alone. On this evening’s news there was an item showing an airborne search of the Mauritian coastline. Fair enough, but I’d put my money firstly on the eastern coast of Madagascar; secondly the African coast; and then maybe the Seychelles group.

[EDIT]
Slats11,
My limited experience of night flying in the pax cabin in recent years suggests that (sadly) nobody ever looks out of the windows, and the blinds are generally closed. By the time dinner was over and the cabin lights were dimmed, any lone eccentric looking outside would have been unlikely to realise that the gibbous moon was on the wrong side of the a/c. Nowadays, curiosity and observation of the skies are a rarity, not to mention understanding. Portable electronics are more enticing...

oldoberon 6th Aug 2015 22:55


Originally Posted by Sober Lark (Post 9073301)
Agree with Severe Clear. I have heard the French have not confirmed this piece is from the Malaysian aircraft. They have a high suspicion but at this point in time they are not certain. The Malaysian's took it upon themselves to make the announcement.


There still seems to be discussion over what the french did or did not say,yesterday I posted a transcript of the announcement , have now converted the recording, hear for yourselves, the French DID NOT CONFIRM part from MH370, all though most of us reckon it is 99.9% certain to be so.


http://v8.tinypic.com/player.swf?file=ruodxt&s=8 sorry about quality due to file size had to turn it into flash to get it to upload

InfrequentFlier511 6th Aug 2015 23:01

Malaysian government announcements
 
Any announcements made by the Malaysian government should probably be considered in the context of the current political atmosphere, including the 1MDB contro:mad::=

slats11 6th Aug 2015 23:02

This is the best contemporaneous report I have fund about the co-pilots phone. Statement to CNN by an unnamed US official, although the information came from Malaysian investigators.

Appears phone was on and made transient automatic contact with the network - there was no actual message or voice call. The phone just came into range of that cell tower at that time.


Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: Co-pilot's cell on, U.S. official says - CNN.com

dmba 6th Aug 2015 23:20

I can understand families of those on board might be clinging on to the hope of the piece of the aircraft not having been confirmed by the French but it's surely only a matter of time, isn't it? It was reported yesterday that they were unable to confirm officially due to legal reasons...whatever that means.

It does seem incredibly stupid, to the point of questioning his integrity, that the Malaysian PM might make an announcement but if you look at what he said he didn't even reference the French. He said a team of international experts. It really does look like he has other agendas for whatever reasons. Quite possibly his international experts are merely interviewees or 'experts' on international news.

I found it very odd that he would specifically reference, with a date stamp and all, the confirmation he made about the flight ending in the southern Indian Ocean. As if he were publicly demonstrating an attitude of "I told you so"...

He made several speech errors as well during the speech. I would love to see what a decent psychologist thought of his body language and speech patterns.

Maybe I'm going too far but from the beginning they have made weird statements and I ask myself if that consistent behaviour is through being inadequate to deal with a crisis or if it has been a deliberate game of shadows and fog all along.

Undertow 6th Aug 2015 23:52

My recollection is CNN on air reported that the phone was not logged into the cellular network when the plane took off. They speculated that something must have caused him or someone to switch it on. They also said they were attempting to clarify an ambiguity in that their source confirmed that no phone call was made but would not or could not confirm or deny if a text was sent or attempted to be sent. No further information seems to have come to light.

slats11 6th Aug 2015 23:59


My recollection is CNN on air reported that the phone was not logged into the cellular network when the plane took off. They speculated that something must have caused him or someone to switch it on. They also said they were attempting to clarify an ambiguity in that their source confirmed that no phone call was made but would not or could not confirm or deny if a text was sent or attempted to be sent. No further information seems to have come to light.
That fits with my recollection. Can't find anything more definitive about this. One of many oddities that seems to have quietly disappeared from the public domain.

igs942 7th Aug 2015 00:25

Cheers Chris,


Initially, I was posting thinking that the integrity of the pressure hull had been compromised (but I did have the Ethiopian hijacking in mind at the time of posting). It would seem that with or without an intact fuselage, debris would probable be omitted and make its way to the surface (I don't think 60ft is deep enough to compress seat cushions enough to overcome their natural buoyancy).


A question for those in the know: What does the RAT power? Would deployment of the RAT have initiated the partial, final handshake? It seems to be accepted that the final partial handshake was initiated by the a/c in boot up mode.

Propduffer 7th Aug 2015 00:29

Igs942

The Satcom unit gets its power from the left AC bus.
The RAT does not supply power to that bus.

igs942 7th Aug 2015 00:31

Oh, and regarding the window, aluminium, seat cushion 'finds'......


I reckon they have found sod all. Up until now, every find, from kettle to ladder to sewing machine, has resulted in a photo in the media in record time. We have had nothing today.....

slats11 7th Aug 2015 01:26

I think that sequence is the best fit.

The Dixie cups won't keep you conscious at higher flight levels. Hence the advice to quickly put yours on before helping others. The Dixie cups will reduce the risk of permanent brain damage and will speed up restoration of consciousness at lower levels. But you need to put them on quickly and the system is predicated on an emergency descent. They are a safety measure for technical problems, not terrorism.

Higher flow rates for pilots will prevent / delay loss of consciousness.

gmorton 7th Aug 2015 04:47

I wonder if the 'legal reasons' why the French 'procureur adjoint' only went as far as to say that there were 'strong presumptions' the flaperon belonged to the Malaysia Airlines plane were to slow down any legal grounds for Malaysia to take the piece for themselves to investigate....if it is 100% certain then could Malaysia have grounds to take it?

skippybangkok 7th Aug 2015 06:48



gmorton

I wonder if the 'legal reasons' why the French 'procureur adjoint' only went as far as to say that there were 'strong presumptions' the flaperon belonged to the Malaysia Airlines plane were to slow down any legal grounds for Malaysia to take the piece for themselves to investigate....if it is 100% certain then could Malaysia have grounds to take it?

Seeing Malaysia Govt lies in the first week - this is plausible

TURIN 7th Aug 2015 10:43


Deployed or not?

I'm waiting to see if the DGA lab can determine anything about the deployment state of this flap. Deployed might mean that the flight crew was in control of the aircraft at the point of ditching. On the other hand, if it was deployed earlier, it could mean that the plane was traveling slower and in a higher drag and fuel consumption configuration and that the range and calculated ditching point are incorrect.
My understanding of the flaperon operation is that deployed with flaps down is the same as full scale aileron deflection down on that wing.
Therefore if proved that the flaperon was down at the time of impact, it could equally be assumed that the aileron's on that wing were deflected full down, irrespective of flap position.

DirtyProp 7th Aug 2015 12:43


Originally Posted by slats11 (Post 9073962)
Yep that Chinese ship heard the underwater beacon of the recorder. Just like the Chinese satellite that earlier found that debris in the South China Sea.

From the outset, this incident has been politicised and subject to disinformation.

I sometimes wonder if recent events in the SCS are somehow connected with MH370.

In part, it may be quite possible.
Several Asian countries are pissed at Malaysia because of the way it handled this.
A couple of old articles:

How MH370 episode has affected balance of politics in SE Asia - Oneindia

MH370 and its political repercussions, SE Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times

tipo158 7th Aug 2015 16:13



OK, someone please explain this article which just appeared. How would the discovery of the flaperon validate a beacon from one of the black boxes? I am sure that either Boeing and/or Malaysia Air would have know the make and model of both black boxes prior to this weeks discovery. And if by some crazy point this article is accurate, does that mean the search goes back to where these signals were first heard????
Shameless local boosterism, I suspect.
There is definitely shameless local boosterism in that article, but I believe that the basis of the claim has something to do with the (suspected) black box pings that were heard in April '14. These were heard in the sea off of NW Australia. Some of the analysis of current and wind patterns have indicated that the flaperon would have gone in the water off NW Australia in order to end up at Reunion.

The maps that I found show the area around the northern of the two pings was searched and larger areas to the west were searched, but I have not seen any maps showing that the area between the pings, along the 7th satellite ping ring, has been searched. Does anyone here know if it has?

tiger9999187 7th Aug 2015 19:21

Potential finding in the Maldives
https://twitter.com/mohamedrajih13/s...86821492576260

However a follow up tweet from that user mentions it was found 45 days ago, and was thrown away!

thcrozier 7th Aug 2015 19:41

As far as I can tell, the Réunion flaperon is the only piece of debris discovered so far that has a reasonable probability of coming from the plane.


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