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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

doubtfire 11th Mar 2014 21:05

Ok, then 7701 or 6700 or anything that was close to 7700. I`m just saying that the chances of a compos mentis flight deck flying for an hour an not making radio contact on vhf1 which will run of the battery is not plausible.
Therefore I`d go with either decompression or unlawful access to the flight deck. If no-one is claiming the latter then I`d go with the former.

Aisle2c 11th Mar 2014 21:05

Malaysian military now reveals it tracked MH370 to the Malacca strait, now being quoted on the Malaysian Insider.


Malaysian military now reveals it tracked MH370 to the Malacca strait - The Malaysian Insider

rodondo4 11th Mar 2014 21:10

Chill
 
Reading your post on Kota Bahru and Kuala Terengganu as possible landing site. Adding the CCN theory of the plane turning across the north of Malaysia with KUL as their aim. What about Penang as the target? An active airport with cargo traffic at night would keep the airport open, big enough runway and should they not be able to make it have the sea around them.

My thought on the crossing to the west towards the north missing the Titwangsa range at the highest point and crossing at a less densely populated area (just in case).

james ozzie 11th Mar 2014 21:11

It seems the 2 fake passports look like a red herring - probably just everyday drug smugglers/people smugglers/asylum seekers going about their daily business and now victims too.

I would not be surprised to learn that there are one or two of these types on most flights in that region.

Una Due Tfc 11th Mar 2014 21:11

Wiggy, Claybird, if there was a departure from FL, there would have been Alarms generated at the ATCOS station alerting them to the departure of a cleared level, fed from SSR data AND ADSB data

Black Knat 11th Mar 2014 21:16

So; No crash site where expected. Aircraft seems to have carried on flying but with transponders etc off. Another thought-what was the aircraft carrying in it's hold? Would be interesting to know if there was anything of great value such as gold bullion. Theft?

doubtfire 11th Mar 2014 21:22

Claybird, Wiggy.
Ok, so both seats have established comms. initiated descent and initiated a turn because they thought it was required. Then they run out of useful consciousness. Autopilot carries on.
Is that so implausible?

JFZ90 11th Mar 2014 21:23


Disc failure unlikely???
One assumes (!) that it was not at take off power when it "vanished", and there is much less stress on most engine components at cruise power.
Maybe, but as on the trent 900 it was an oil fire due to a failed mismanufactured pipe that caused the disc burst on qantas. this could occur at any time in the flight in theory. i'm not saying its the same cause at all - just that it is a plausible explanation of sudden total loss of ac without comms - in theory - which the media is sort of implying is impossible.

It wouldn't explain the turn back etc. rumours.

deagles007 11th Mar 2014 21:24


doubtfire
Ok, then 7701 or 6700 or anything that was close to 7700. I`m just saying that the chances of a compos mentis flight deck flying for an hour an not making radio contact on vhf1 which will run of the battery is not plausible.
Therefore I`d go with either decompression or unlawful access to the flight deck. If no-one is claiming the latter then I`d go with the former.
Wiggy, doubtfire, claybird have valid points. At any rate, since its not SOP to turn a specified 90 degrees left or right, seems a moot point since it appears that it turned more like 120 degrees left based on LKP and Pulau Perak. Doesn't dismiss decompression/ghost flight as a possibility.

wiggy 11th Mar 2014 21:30


Ok, so both seats have established comms. initiated descent and initiated a turn because they thought it was required. Then they run out of useful consciousness. Autopilot carries on.
Is that so implausible?
I have no problem with that as a theory, but in your post earlier you seemed (and maybe I misunderstood ) to be linking the reports of a left turn to the west with what sounds like a pretty much mandatory left turn in the Airbus procedure, hence my comment.


Wiggy, Claybird, if there was a departure from FL, there would have been Alarms generated at the ATCOS station alerting them to the departure of a cleared level, fed from SSR data AND ADSB data
Una -

I don't doubt it ( if as you say, SSR and ADSB are working), but that wasn't the subject of our little discussion - see above.

Una Due Tfc 11th Mar 2014 21:36

ZOOKER

Alarms probably not the best choice of word, but label turns red or yellow depending on the situation. FL turns yellow to indicate selected level and cleared level are not the same if clear of traffic and info is from ADSB

Chill 11th Mar 2014 21:37

Rodondo4

Ordinarily PEN would be a good option during the day when everyone is awake but I'd be less inclined at night. There's high terrain on the west side of the runway, Penang Bridge to mind out for on the east side, without knowing their control capabilities the Rwy22 approach over Georgetown is higher risk than the Rwy04 approach over water (and 04 has the ILS). If they drop it in the drink on approach I've no idea what their emergency water recovery capabilities are like though RFFS would be decent on land. If I HAD to land PEN is #1 (assuming TGG was no go), but if I felt there was 20-25mins up my sleeve I'd go to KUL - 2 runways (so won't close up the airport), well lit, far superior RFFS, better survivability for the pax (depending on the nature of the problem). Wasn't there so can only guess what they were going through, but these guys know the penninsula like the back of their hand.

Jaberwocky

I agree :ok:, it's not a DC7 or 707 and MAS Engineering isn't so sloppy. They knocked a winglet off plus some on a 738 in a towing accident once and a new one went back on. No sticky tape, reinforcement job there. The only time that happens is when the ramp/catering guys bang trolleys, etc into the fuse skin.

Staggerwing 11th Mar 2014 21:46

I presume that anywhere in the probable oceanic area where MH370 could have overflown, there would be several vessels form various navies carrying out patrols/exercises/operations. I also assume that most of these vessels would carry primary radar to detect incoming hostile aerial vehicles. Have there been any reports from any of these vessels that they had tracked MH370 at any stage?

B738bbjsim 11th Mar 2014 22:15

Aircraft turned towards Malacca Straits
 
I too wondered about the search of the Malacca Straits for an aircraft believed headed elsewhere.

Then I came across this AIP from the Department of Civil Aviation Malaysia.

It details the available radars and the rules to be followed in communications failure; in short, if able, continue to destination as assigned, or if unable, maintain VMC and land at the most suitable aerodrome, which may be the aerodrome of departure. For KUL, that is an approach to land on runway 14L.

http://aip.dca.gov.my/aip%20pdf/ENR/...1.6/Enr1_6.pdf

Maybe now, if MH370 was there, it all begins to make sense.

1fm 11th Mar 2014 22:21

Sky News' latest expert's hypothesis is that following a decompression, the pilots set the AP on a reciprocal course, and passed out after failing to put on their oxygen masks.

If that's the case, based on the expected flight distance and allowing for a bit of extra fuel, the aircraft could be down somewhere between Madagascar and Perth (Australia).

Is there any reason why pilots would fail to put on their oxygen masks? Could they fail?

Is there anywhere a decompression could occur that would take out the various communication systems?

mm43 11th Mar 2014 22:21

@nitpicker

Many posts have been deleted over the past 12 hours, so not sure if anyone gave a definitive reply to whether the debris reported by a CX flight in the South China sea had been investigated.

From the New Straits Times in the last 30 minutes -

The [Vietnamese] naval ship HQ888 has examined waters off southern Ba Ria Vung Tau province without finding any fragments spotted by a Hong Kong commercial aircraft on Monday, according to the National Committee for Search and Rescue.
The same article describes how the Vietnamese are expanding their on land searches etc...

overthewing 11th Mar 2014 22:26

Latest Twitter excitement via the Tomnod project.

Malaysia Airlines MH370 / TomNod crowd-search - CNN iReport

No idea about the scale.

ZOOKER 11th Mar 2014 22:27

The PA103 disintegration occurred at cruising level. Admittedly there were strong westerly winds at the time.
After SSR data was 'discontinued', the primary radar plots of the airframe break-up were extensively scattered. Some small items of the debris field reached the North Sea coast. I have seen the radar replay.
No such extensive 'debris-field' has yet been seen, 5 days down the line, in an area of fairly intense commercial aircraft operations/marine activity.
I did wonder whether an in-tact impact on the ocean surface had caused the a/c to disappear into an ocean trench, but there are non on the flight-planned route, unless of course the a/c continued north-eastbound, (outside radar cover), until it ran out of fuel.
Earlier, someone pointed out that the waters surrounding the last known position are shallow, but the bottom sediments are often thick, loosely-consolidated pyroclastic deposits. Could these sediments 'absorb' a B777, travelling at speed?
We do not actually know the extent of PSR/SSR coverage, civil/military, in this region, or the credibility of the various 'sighting (visual and radar) reports'.

thcrozier 11th Mar 2014 22:35

Maybe this Island?

https://www.google.com/maps/@9.18714.../data=!3m1!1e3


Might even fit in the hanger there.

kenjaDROP 11th Mar 2014 22:42

Turn back and continue to West of Malaysia?
 
Taking stock and getting back to basics, have I missed something re. the flight's stated turn back and flight into the Malacca Straits?

Are all the facts (quoted both herein these posts and going round-and-round the media), about this departure from original track and on-going flight from point of lost contact, stemming from the Berita Harian story? If so, has not the Chief of Malaysia's AF refuted these facts were ever disclosed to the BH reporter?

Or is it that the Reuters-gathered intel from the RMAF - to the effect that the plane HAD been tracked back by airforce radar - is fact?

Much media content seem to me to be swinging on the Berita Harian release, which is denied.

There again, I would assume the tracking back to the West must have been confirmed somewhere otherwise the resulting SAR effort in that area wouldn't be on-going.

I'm confused as to what's been confirmed and what's circulatory BS! :ugh:


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