I have just looked at the NTSB report on TWA800.

On page 91, it shows a synopsis of primary radar returns just after the breakup; the cloud of debris is clearly visible.

The report on EgyptAir 990 that hit the sea in one piece shows on page 36 that also for this flight, primary returns were available nearly until the impact.

So in either case, the primary radar tapes are badly needed. However, an inflight breakup is made less likely by the lack of any observations: an explosion would be well audible and a cloud of debris rather visible to anyone in the area (probably mostly seafarers). And an impact in one piece would have needed to show on at least one seismograph, which it apparently did not (or at least the corresponding spike is not yet found).

I am not yet convinced that this aircraft has crashed.

The trouble with biometric passports is that all you need is someone who looks more or less like you. As the poster said, at airline ticket desks and exit points on immigration passports are not checked as carefully as entry points. Fake passports aren't usually needed to blow up or hijack a plane. Regular passports work well enough, unless the holder is on a no-fly list.
And, if you did need a fake passport, choosing a recently stolen one would seem a better choice.

...Azharuddin [Malaysian civil aviation chief] said the search includes northern parts of the Malacca Strait, on the opposite side of the Malay Peninsula and far west of the plane's last known location. Azharuddin would not explain why crews were searching there, saying, "There are some things that I can tell you and some things that I can't."...

See How can jet disappear? In the ocean, it's not hard

According to google, due to weak currents and significant volcanic activity much of the area has muddy sediment on that forms a layer up to 40 meters deep on the sea floor in some places.

Apparently the water depth in Malacca straights rarely exceeds 30 meters.
At 500 mph a distance of 30 meters is travelled in less than 0.2 of a second so would an airframe be stopped by this depth of water or would it also impact the seabed?

We have seen "holes in the ground" the result of near vertical high speed impacts. Imagine the same hole in the ground but under 30 meters of water and subsequently enveloped by 20 meters of mud.

Below is the impact crater from Flight 93, a 757 -222. The Black box was found at 7 meters feet and they excavated to 14 meters to remove all debris. So if the black box was in the tail and the deepest any wreckage was found was 15 feet deeper, the aircraft was compacted and encased in just 15 ft depth of soil.

Whilst it seems far fetched, does the physics add up?… a similar, near vertical impact to Egypt 990, but into 20 meters of water, then transitioning into soft mud that envelopes the wreckage?


http://www.dvorak.org/blog/wp-conten...crash-site.jpg

@ TU14 and others, thanks for your replies.

I was of the impression that it wasn't unusual for PAX not to board and that it isn't something that is necessarily sinister.

I can also imagine that it is a PITA for all concerned, not just the ground staff, but also a pilot trying to make a take-off slot - along with us SLF, who get to seethe ground staff unloading luggage.

Recent Reuters Report - No Satellite Detection of Explosion
 

"The United States extensively reviewed imagery taken by American spy satellites for evidence of a mid-air explosion, but saw none, a U.S. government source said. The source described U.S. satellite coverage of the region as thorough."

It is extremely unlikely that anyone in ATC was monitoring anything but 'cooperative surveillance' almost certainly secondary radar. This gives a lot of information that can be used to build a labelled display. There is almost no use for primary radar in current ATC. The lesson from United Flight 93 was switch off the secondary radar (stop squawk) in a secondary only area and your aircraft is lost to the ATC system. What that system _might_ do is 'coast' the response along the expected flight plan track, so controllers may not be aware of when the real transponded responses stopped. Because the transponders are actively sending a response the range of SSR can be more than PSR so the aircraft may not even be in PSR contact. FANS ADS-C (contract reports over SATCOM) would be better as the EPP reports give a lot of FMC information but the bean counters keep these reports down to only one every 10 minutes or so.

Air defense notification systems spotting an unplanned aircraft requires the aircraft to appear on the radar _and_ for someone to be awake and observant enough to notice it. As there have been no Vietnamese air attacks on Malaysia (and vice versa) in the last decades alertness may not be at its best in the early hours. Yes the aircraft response may be found by going back over recordings - now will the loss of face be worth admitting it was missed? Looking at the radar coverage map a few posts back there are gaps that could easily be used should someone want to cross back into Malaysia (although _why_ that would be needs to be answered). There may be similar gaps over Vietnam.

Now I know that crews don't like the idea of FOQA data to the cloud or CVR/CVideoR to the cloud. But had that been the case herre there would be relatives of 200+ people who would at least have known what had happened. Also as someone who spends much time as SLF I would like to know if there was a weakness on the aircraft that currently fly thousands of people daily. It is perfectly technically feasible now with high bandwidths available on both INMARSAT and soon on 'Iridium Next' and those links would keep your EFBs up-to-date as well. Not wanting people watching over you does not cut it any more - controllers have continual watch over them with open mic recordings - even overnight staff at gas stations have it. With aircraft flying routes more over wide expanses of ocean is it acceptable that they can go missing and require huge search efforts to be made? Perhaps if the cost of multinational search and rescue was charged to the airlines things might be different.

If the aircraft had ditched and passengers were on the slides as liferafts, wouldn't said slides have ELTs built in? We are not looking at a controlled ditching here.

I work as a radio optimiser for a well known multi national company in the uk. The use of jammers is common and work very well. I don't want to single out a race about this but we find that these are normally installed within mosques to stop the use of them within the vicinity.

Also we've seen in prisons but I digress.

Generally though they are band specific and not wideband. Therefore they would disrupt a gsm 900 signal but not a WCDMA 2100. For one to be on board a plane and block all frequencies for gsm, WCDMA and LTE it would be wideband unless multiple units were on board. Back to the ecr cells, we have them in the uk, or did do at t-mobile in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland. I am surprised they are not deployed in the US.

Super....

As a FWIW on our configuration, and I believe most others, the slide rafts do not have built in ELTs....

Having read all this from the outset, I'm becoming more persuaded by the concept of mass hypoxia ...

But what I can't quite grasp is:

• How (me not being a 777 driver) the last settings on the a/p don't sustain flight in that direction until fuel exhaustion. (= search offshore near Ho Chi Min city?)
• Why an initial track of 040-ish suddenly generates search activity on the west of the Malay peninsula. (= someone suspects something more than just that implied left turn at 'lost contact')

I beg to disagree, but the upload system would surely have stopped at the same time as ADS-B / Transponder / ACARS etc.?

It depends on the nature of the failure of course, and/or how things were disabled. But I seriously airlines / passengers will want to pay the costs involved in such a system... and if it is installed for safety reasons, do you as SLF want all the delays / diversions associated with "our FDR system won't login to the satellite, so we cannot depart / must divert" :rolleyes:

NoD

It's been asked before and a figure of 2000 NM was suggested.

It's unclear why you'd want to fly at 1000 ft AMSL. Without the transponder and with primary radar coverage as spotty as it apparently is, hijackers could have crossed into the Indian Ocean at FL350 without ever appearing on any radars.

Based on what we know, if it was indeed hijacked, it could have reached North Korea, any point in Indonesia, most islands in the Indian Ocean. East coast of Africa would be pushing it, but, if there was in fact enough fuel onboard for 7.5 hours at 490 KTAS, with favorable winds it could reach Yemen or Somalia. (Though it would be a gamble for hijackers if this were their desired destination, they'd have to know exactly how much reserve fuel there was onboard.)

You only need a 4500 foot runway to land a 777-200 without fuel at sea level in dry weather. There are probably dozens of poorly known or unknown runways in this range that would accept a 777 (though taking off again would be a completely different story). As a random example, there is an airport in eastern Somalia with ICAO code HCMG that is potentially within range, has a 5250 ft runway, and, as far as I can tell, sees no scheduled traffic. With minimal organization, a few determined individuals could land MH370 there, herd the passengers into trucks, torch the plane and disappear into the wind long before anyone starts asking questions.

Given the global lack of trust in governments, the press, and other humans, I'm not sure this will answer everybody's questions as to who is doing what and where but try:

BBC News - Malaysia Airlines: How is the search being carried out?

They provide a map of the search areas which include the South China Sea, the north half of the Malacca Strait, and central Malaysia (yes, land). Three P3s (2 Australian, 1 US Navy), multiple C-130s and assorted other maritime surveillance aircraft, helicopters, both land and sea based from 14 countries are involved, with more coming. Ships are being deployed but the bulk of the search patterns are being flown.

What if you has a hull breach at 35K at a location that took out some if not all of the avionics, and you're half way between land masses?

Wouldn't you try to get low into breathable air ASAP? It's not like you would have time to go back and check on the passengers. So now your low (below primary radar) what next? Would you head on to an airport that you have never been to before and might not have the charts, or turn for home and a field you have been to 100's of times? Somewhere you felt you could land blindfolded, since you pretty much are.

I'll bet they tried for home and the familiar airport, distances being equal.

Think I agree with the looking in the wrong place crew.

And KAL007 flew for over 10 minutes and got out a radio call after getting hit by two missiles.

Descend and maintain 10,000 would be well above minimum radar altitude I think.

Bono,

There would have been a huge fire and a lot of smoke.

Also phones are supposed to be 'off' so the chances of one cell phone being 'on' and surviving the crash are very low. Chances of dozens of them surviving are probably infinitesimal, to say the least.

If true, seems a bit coincidental if comms were lost just as cruise was reached. When would the seatbelt signs have come off and people started to move around the cabin?

Regarding a possible successful ditching: the street of Malacca is the World's most dense shipping lane. Any raft/slide or ditching would have been seen almost instantly.

The area where the secondary radar image disappeared is also very dense with fishing boats.

In order to reach Somalia as someone has mentioned, you would have had to stay at altitude and this scenario sounds more Clive Cussler material than reality, however not impossible.