Australopithecus It depends if your airline has been paying the bills. I worked for one that did not! But then you're into different problems like repatriation and is the money in the bank on pay day?

Sounds Detected
 

If the US or another country had a SOSUS (or similar) system near there, wouldn't it be possible to listen for an anomaly that could be the plane impacting the water. This would more or less confirm the plane crashed into the ocean.

I am still amazed that no-one in authority appears to have mentioned checking seismic recording equipment. A couple of previous posters here have mentioned it.
Seismic equipment can throw up a record of the tiniest earth tremor - and 200+ tonnes of aircraft hitting land or water at 500, 600, or 800kmh must have produced a measurable shock wave (if it has crashed, as we must presume, is the more likely scenario).

Maybe the only way there would be little shock wave is if the aircraft stalled and flew into the water nearly level, a-la AF447, at just over 200kmh.
In which case, surely there would be a pile of floating debris? 10% of the B777 construction is composite, I've been informed, so would that style of composite float? Seating, bodies, carry-on luggage, a lot must float for days?

Malaysia ask for radar data from some neighboring countries.


http://i.imgur.com/TpbYREZ.jpg

@MartinM
Minus 2 hours for lunch, of course . . . at least in the case of the Swiss ... but you know that already!

@Luke Sky Toddler
First-hand information - hallelujah! Many thanks

@Etudiant
No, it was stated that it most likely had around 7 and a half hours fuel - not the same thing at all!

Harping back to the point I made goodness knows how many pages ago, but last night my time, whilst I recognise the limitations of FR24 and the like, there are 3 transponder anomalies (as previously stated) that show up in the 90 minutes or so of interest and also in the local area.

They just happen to affect ONLY MAS370 and 2 of the aircraft nearest to it (though UA895 appears to be unaffected)

KAL672 as it passed 105.2 East at 16.55 UTC
CCA970 as it passed 105.25 East at 17.02 UTC
MAS370 as it passed 103.6 East at 17.21 UTC

This begs the question what else was in the area, perhaps travelling NW-ish at the time that had the capability to, and may have affected all 3 transponders AND ONLY THOSE THREE

Perhaps the illustrious Electronic Warfare ship that is now "assisting" with the search and whose Govt are not exactly fans of the Chinese (who themselves are in a very good position to sink the fiat dollar)?

Or should we only consider possibilities that point to Eastern and/or Muslim countries?

Perhaps nothing at all, perhaps not.

Of course you can change your aircraft ID (call sign) in the cockpit. The call sign is your flight number as in "MH 370". This changes for each flight and is not specific to any one aircraft.

I think this only applies to ADS B or CPDLC where the crew enters the flight number for the particular flight in the Flight Management Computer.

Non ADS B flights would have the Call Sign entered by ATC when they assign the transponder code for the flight.

(please correct me if this information is not correct)

I'm a current B777 pilot.

About a year ago, in response to a Boeing Flight Crew Ops Manual Bulletin (BAB-95) relating to a potential software glitch affecting the selected altitude on the MCP, the operator I fly for changed our procedures to comply. Before the change we used to leave the Altitude increment selector in the 1000s position, subsequent to the change it is now routinely left in the Auto position (i.e 100 foot increments).

Had the flight crew experienced a rapid decompression then following donning of oxygen masks, establishing comms between the two of them, checking for cabin altitude/rate and passenger oxygen as required the next checklist item calls for an emergency descent. In my company this is routinely taught as a double loop starting with selecting a lower altitude on the MCP altitude selector, optionally using HDG/TRK SEL to turn off the airway, pressing the FL CH switch (commence descent at current IAS), deploying the speedbrake and ensuring the thrust levers are closed. Once the descent is established a second sweep tidies up the altitude selected (MSA/10k'), refines the heading, increases speed if appropriate and checks again for speedbrake deployment and thrust lever closure.

If there had been an explosive decompression centred on the E&E bay that knocked out all comms equipment and the crew oxygen could it be that the initial actions of the emergency descent checklist, the first sweep, be accomplished then hypoxia set in before the second sweep could be completed?

Under the old 1000s position of the ALT SEL an anticlockwise spin would reduce the selected altitude by many thousands of feet, an anticlockwise spin of the heading could give a large heading change to the west, the aircraft would descend at current IAS (normally in the cruise at FL350 M.84 equates to 250-260Kts indicated). However if the ALT SEL was in the Auto position a quick spin would change the selected altitude by only several hundreds of feet, possibly by pure chance FL295?

This scenario could explain the lack of comms, the primary radar target tracked on a westerly routing and the fact that no debris has yet been found. At FL295 the pilots would succumb quickly to the effects of hypoxia, the passengers likewise once the passenger oxygen was depleted. The cabin crew may have transferred to portable oxygen and attempted to reach the flight deck (my company trains the cabin crew to do exactly that if the descent has not commenced within 80 seconds). However even had the cabin crew entered the flight deck would (could?) they attempt a radio call, once they removed their mask there wouldn't be much time of useful consciousness to get that call out even assuming they knew how to.

If I had access to satellite imagery I think I might extend the search out in the last presumed direction of flight to the fuel exhaustion point and see if anything was there.

Possible? Plausible?

The problem is the sea between Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia is like a puddle. It's extremely shallow, about 200 feet deep, and likely full of junk already. You can't easily use sonar. If no-one finds any debris soon, then the wreckage is probably going to be found accidentally in the end by being snagged by a fishing net.

It might also still have been moving fast enough on impact in shallow water that it embedded itself in the mud on the sea bed, muffling any pingers.

Without better inferred positions from radar and radio transmission records, the search for the wreckage may be a long one.

ploughman,

How would the cabin crew get into the flight deck to bring the oxygen if the occupants were unconscious as their oxygen was out. Is there no backup oxygen carried in the cockpit in case a crew mask fails?

Surely the whole point of new locked doors is that you're not able to break in, and so someone would have to admit the cabin crew with their bottle. A flaw in this back up plan?

You have to explain the total lack of any form of communication from the aircraft past the point of known contact.

Do these theories of total comms blackout but still flight capable aircraft hold any water.

Or SOSUS reports
 

There is an extensive SOSUS sytem in that area that would have detected a noise of that magnitude,

What's cooking?
 

I offer my apologies if this has been mentioned before, but I may have missed one or two of the plethora of theories ..... but considering the phase of the flight, would a galley fire not be a possibility?

I know not the implications regarding loss of comms.
Maybe someone can tell me.

USAF1956
FWIW, SOSUS was/is mostly a deep water system, not a good fit for the comparatively shallow water of the South China Sea. Beyond that, were there some hydrophone array in the area, a surface anomaly (short duration acoustic event) may or may not reach a given hydrophone due to the varied paths sound takes and the high ambient noise in that region. My estimate (very out of date, been some years since I did real ASW) is that there is no such hydrophone array in that region.

Hoping that SOSUS could give a datum for this search seems low to zero probability.

It is not where they are looking.
 

Old Boeing Driver asks is there is anything else to add, past that the A/C took off and contact was lost. Yes, there is. We know it took off, we know it had a competent flight crew, we know it had lots of fuel, we know it climbed to altitude, and we know it was on its intended course.

We can reasonably conclude that the A/C was on autopilot. These guys are not likely to be hand-flying that thing in the gloom of night on a long-haul.

We also know that vast amounts of assets are out looking at the water surface. Plus, lots of small boats out there, fishermen, diesel-fuel tankers, junks, coastal freighters, all kinds of stuff. We know that an aircraft impacting water is going to bust up into a vast number of parts, and a lot of those will float around. Yet, nothing is found.

That tells us that it is not where everybody is looking. So: where is it? Getting past murky reports of radar contacts in other places at different altitudes, you do have to conclude that the more logical flight path is the one the autopilot has it set on. That A/C heads North - to land. From that inference, either the A/C continues onward on that autopilot until it runs out of fuel, then crashes, or the autopilot is interrupted and the A/C goes into an uncontrolled descent and impacts terrain. We have learned that an impact into terrain at high speed will leave a small crater - in the case of United 93, only 30 feet across. Are you going to spot an impact crater in the jungle of Southeast Asia? Or does the jungle simply swallow it up?

In which case, you may never find it. Ever. Hard for us to appreciate, with our fascination with technology, yet still quite plausible.

Two comments -

RR engine data :
Given the vagaries of HF radio propagation it is entirely possible for Fort Meade to have received signals which did not arrive at RR. A simple issue of antennas in different locations. In any event I would not expect RR to make any public comment for contractual reasons.

Cockpit windshield failure :
This is a possible cause which we have not considered. Such events are rare but they have happened. This would cause explosive cockpit decompression and incapacitation of almost certainly at least one pilot.
With the captain incapacitated and the FO probably injured the shock and startle effect would leave a less experienced FO with a serious workload problem.

@ Dai Farr 'I flew SAR on Air India 182 back in 1985'


The return on that aircraft vanished at 07.13GMT. An emergency was declared at 07.30GMT and SAR found floating debris at 09.13 GMT just over 120 miles off shore. The technology they had back then was primitive compared to today, yet wreckage location only took a matter of hours.


A mid air disintegration leaves sizable floating wreckage and later washed-up debris. From my involvement the problem with the smaller washed-up debris was the general public didn't recognise them as belonging to an aircraft.

NASA Joins Hunt for Missing Jetliner | Space.com

NASA Joins Hunt for Missing Malaysian Jetliner

Hypoxic descent
 

It seems to me that while terrorism, unlawful interference, deliberate action or a government cover up of some kind are not confirmed as being completely impossible, they can’t be far off, especially given the time that has passed without any proper clues of that nature. I will admit that the Malaysia’s Command and Control of the incident so far has aroused suspicion as has the lack of a cargo report. But as many have said, the most obvious and logical causes are probably the most likely.

That gives us two scenarios.

Either the aircraft went down at the same time as comms was lost (01:21 ish) or it continued to fly for a duration (up to a maximum of 5-7 hours given fuel discussions) in a given direction.

That puts the aircraft in a number of possible locations.

In the vicinity of last comms, in the South China Sea between NE Malaysia (peninsula) and SW Vietnam. This becomes less likely every day, assuming that the search is being conducted effectively.

If it did make the possible turn back towards Malaysia, then it could therefore be on mountainous, densely forested land, or again out to sea in the Malacca Strait, Andaman Sea or even Indian Ocean.

It could also be further into the South China Sea than we think, if the turn back was radar error.

The lack of a debris field found to this point suggests that either it’s much smaller than we expect (high velocity impact in one piece, successful ditching followed by aircraft sinking, shallow dive after fuel supply exhausted) or it isn’t where we expect (flown a full 7 hours towards the un-searched Indian Ocean for example).

So far, I think the most logical explanations all include hypoxia in some form, which can easily reduce a highly functioning individual to utterly useless in 90 seconds.While I cling to the hope that at least some of those on board MH370 could still be floating on yellow rafts with a dwindling supply of airline food, I take some comfort in knowing that drifting away through the delirium and hilarity of hypoxia must be one of the most painless and peaceful ways to go, particularly in an aircraft accident.

This leaves me with questions still:

Why are land based searches not being conducted in remote and forested areas? :confused:

Why are more countries not being asked to support? Malaysia and China between them have plenty of allies with superior military capabilities which could be put to excellent effect in solving this mystery, or even locating some survivors! :ugh:

Transponder identity
 

That is not true (or inaccurate, as the guys in the pc would say). Each mode S transponder is set up before installation with a worldwide unique 24 bit adress obtained from a global registration. You cannot change this adress in flight. The adress is tied to the aircraft registration. The only codes that can be assigned or re-assigned is the call sign and the 4 digit octal transponder code.
Same 24-bit aircraft adress applies to 406 Mhz ELT broadcast.

ploughman67
 

Thanks

What would happen in your scenario to the speedbrakes and thrust setting when the selected altitude is reached and the pilots already unconscious ?

I see the main problem with this hypotheses that only transponder and acars comm equipment would have to be knocked out but all other vital electronics still working. On the other hand what happened on MH370 surely wasn't an everyday event.

BTW:It doesn't really matter but as far as I understand the 29.5 k feet was derived from that unidentified primary radar contact. Precision of that height would depend very much on angular resolution of the primary radar, so I guess it is just a best estimate give or take some 1000? feet.

Surely....

Exactly!

There are too many theories on here that just dont hold water.

Whatever people theorise happened i.e. O2 bottles exploding, decompression, skin failure, terrorists, onboard fire, bomb etc. etc. just does not fit with the lack of wreckage (small debris field/ straight down entry into water?), lack of comms, lack of transponder, aircraft did not continue flying on A/P etc.

It's staring us in the face and it is not pretty.

Doesn't explain the transponder ceasing all transmissions.

US Officials Believe Missing Plane Crashed in Indian Ocean

US Officials Believe Malaysia Airline Crashed into Indian Ocean - ABC News

Dia Farr - Very good info in your post--thanks for being one of those who keeping this thread worth reading. Rather good to see some wheat amonst the chaff. Awblain and Lonewolf also adding good ASW/SAR bits in as well.

Ploughman, I also fly the 777 and you made a point that I think most, if not all of us have missed--and that is problems with the MCP. How many times have we either done it ourselves or seen it happen when the altitude is spun incorrectly or the heading knob (or vice versa) is spun when it was meant to set a new altitude.

These errors are of course normally quickly caught and so no harm no foul...but add in hypoxia and and now we are talking about how this little bit of MCP confusion could lead to bigger problems.

My carrier still keeps the alt selector in auto unless flying a NPA but I can see why yours has changed the procedure.

One little knob, one little twist, one bit of confusion growing ever larger due to hypoxia and suddenly the MCP could be THE major player.

Glad to see the thread this morning with some good info being posted.

RE Mode S:
It has a code you can enter for that flight, but also a code in the background unique to the airframe. It is - in computer terms - a MAC address and is used like that for data communications in the background.

There are 24 bits in the ICAO mode S address. The USA is assigned a block of codes starting with Axxxxx, where A is the first Hexadecimal digit and xxxxx are 5 Hexadecimal digits unique to the aircraft.

Does the 777 let the pilots change the tail number as well as the flight ID?

ploughman,

a very plausible scenario, the MCP is indeed a very obvious gotcha

awblain,

don't worry, if they need to the CC can get in, if no-one is awake to "deny" them.

Some of the Qs and As are getting abit too detailed and specific and could/can be used by 'others' for sinister motives.

Island_Photo
 

I flew with some older FMS's for awhile, and a controller asked about our tail number, which was being transmitted as another ID.

We looked in the FMS, and sure enough, the previous tail number was still in the box.

We were able to change it from the cockpit, although we were on the ground when we did it. I don't know if that would make a difference.

The FMS did talk to the transponder.

Also, ATC doesn't see the tail number for an airliner. Just flight number and airline code

Indonesia Air Force
 

Guys and gals, did the Indonesian Air Force make any announcements on the MH370??

I find extremely disturbing that a radar primary plot crossed the whole Malaysia heading west to Indonesia and Malaysia didn't send a fighter to check. And find even weirder that the plot disappears very close to the airspace boundary between Malaysia and Indonesia (Pulau Perak).

Digital Globe could release images of the region close to oil rig and debris field seen by CX crew, and also the Malacca Strait...

Definitely the Malaysian military are hiding something, but not some info that would help out finding the aircraft right now, but their own incompetence on letting an unknown radar plot cross the country and do nothing about it.

MODE S and ADSB transmit as part of the extended squitter the airframes unique ICAO 24bit address.

It is hard coded and cannot be changed.

Indonesian assistance
 

Indonesian Air Force Boeing A7303 combed the Malaka Strait in search of the missing Malaysia Airlines (MAS) MH370 from Monday (March 10) to Tuesday, but in vain.

Cargo?
 

I still think the, "What was in the cargo", is a very valid question.

If any journalists are reading this, perhaps you could raise it at tomorrow's press conference

BBC coverage
 

The BBC has clearly lost the editorial plot.

They just had an interview on BBC World TV with some conspiracy theorist nutter spouting a mixture of inaccurate and discredited tosh, complaining about SAR incompetence and a lack of information. There must be pushing 100 multinational ships and aircraft out there searching, not to mention all the electronic scrutiny. Are they all incompetent? What sort of information does he want? Fabricated 'facts' just to keep him and the media happy?

The whole semi-frivolous tone of the interview, anchored by Lucy Hockings (promoting the 'someone's holding something back' line), was pretty distasteful in the circumstances.

If both pilots were unconscious due to hypoxia, does this mean that the flight deck oxygen masks were fed from a single, common source?

Wrong. The aircraft identity is coded into a Mode S transponder and cannot be changed. The Flight ID is separate and under the control of the crew, as is the squawk.

If you look at the registration record for any aircraft, you will see something like:
ICAO 24 bit aircraft address:Binary: 0100_00_000_000_01_0010110100
Hex: 4004B4
Octal: 20002264

Which will link back to the specific aircraft, whatever Flight ID or squawk is selected.

If you look at the full Mode S return on a screen, you will see the "4004B4" displayed.

Back to (bemused) watching brief.

WilyB . . .
 

Stormy Knight . . .
Just for a factual record: My cellphone, unintentionally left ON, inside my luggage stowed in the forward section of B747 main deck, had recorded 3 "welcome messages" from a Bangladesh telecom, while traversing the country at FL330. :ooh:

My apologies if this has already been discussed, this thread is huge and moving fast.

What about the report in the WSJ this morning about the engines reporting back that they ran for four hours? How is that possible?

I'm curious as to all the various radios on the plane, their locations, and what they are talking to. Do the engines have a completely independent radio that would be located somewhere other than the main electronics bay? Is it possible for the aircraft to go completely radio silent but still report back engine telemetry? Does that system talk to a satellite?

I've heard that harped on all morning on the radio and TV news here in the US and no one is asking those very obvious questions....how that would continue to work but literally no other data is coming off of the plane.

The SecDef of Malaysia denied the engine data transmission story today. The US still seems to support some ongoing flight theory.

ABC news:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=22894802

Last Point of contact onwards
 

The theory of MH370 continuing to fly a further 4 to 5 hours after last point of contact appears to be weakening -

Malaysian authorities have said reports that the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 may have flown for an additional four hours beyond its last sighting are inaccurate, and that the final information received from its engines indicated everything was operating normally.

"We have contacted both the possible sources of data – Rolls-Royce and Boeing – and both have said they did not receive data beyond 1.07am," Malaysia Airlines chief executive, Ahmad Jauhari Yahyain, told reporters on Thursday afternoon. "The last transmission at 1.07am stated that everything was operating normally."

Thursday 13 March 2014 12.30 GMT - The Guardian.com