Coffin corner
 

That was kind of the direction I was going.

Maybe a scenario where a malfunction got them way too fast, and then a ham-fisted recovery started various mechanical failures.

I know not applicable here, but harmonic resonance in a helicopter utterly disintegrates it in a few seconds.

I was wondering if there might be something similar with this situation.

Just another wild theory.......

No connection, but don't expect a quick resolution...
 

Put that way, maybe not so crazy at all. AA 587 went into Jamaica Bay in 2001 due to the overuse of rudder (a series of full deflections by the FO) after a wake turbulence encounter, which caused the rudder and vertical stabilizer to separate from the fuselage. The problem with the theory though is that it doesn't explain the abrupt and complete loss of communication.

Nah, catastrofic failure is the only answer, cause? undetermined.

"Okay so based on your response, Coagie, you don't have a reference. :) "


YRP, People like you have to have facts spoon fed to you. Won't this make you fall prey to propaganda? I could spend a time finding the reference from a while ago, but if you're wondering, why not look yourself? I poured over thousands of facts about AF447, over the last 5 years, and if I happen to dig it up, I'll let you know. Maybe someone else remembers the French having to review the sonar tapes? It wasn't a secret, but since it was such a big mistake, they didn't exactly shout it from the treetops!

You have to take into consideration that Mmo is potentially more critical than Vmo. Exceeding Vmo alone is empirically not that dangerous.
Significantly exceeding Mmo on the other hand can lead to nasty flutter which can then lead to disintegration.
At high altidute you would hit ciritcal Mach number prior to hitting any ciritcal airspeed. Theoretically this can become unrecoverable due to Mach Tuck. But to get to that point will required a significant and extended dive since drag will start to increase heavily when approaching Mach 1.
That said, a straight steep dive from 35k probably could lead to disintegration.

In reality straight dives are rare and less disorienting. More often a spiral dive ensues.
And that also tends to be more dangerous and also more difficult to identify and counter correctly at night or in IMC.
At lower altitudes it is therefore rather this 'graveyard spiral' mechanism that sometimes leads to in-flight disintegration (especially of GA aircraft that are otherwsie rather difficult to break up in flight). In that case a spiral dive which is not actively countered continues to accelerate in rotation and vertical speed. Due to longitudinal stability the aircraft will pull more and more g to counter the increasing speed. If not interrupted quickly by dedicated and correct action this will lead quickly to self- disintegration. Instinctive pull-up prior to complete arrest of rotation aggravates the problem and will lead to immediate disintegration.

While completely true, this is handling skills and knowledge that must be demonstrated before being granted a PPL. The PIC on this flight had nearly 20,000 hours... he would know how to break out of a spin wouldn't he?

Accepting that the photo purported to show the aircraft door is indeed that of a door, I don't recall 777 doors with windows of that size and more-or-less centered in the door frame. Most of the doors I've seen have windows that seem smaller and off-center. Maybe just my imagination playing tricks or an optical illusion.

An x-sim fan!!!

Well you need to understand that in our profession, a simulator is a box we crawl into once/twice per year to practice procedures and (hopefully) pass competency checks. its not a computer game.

To be honest, i don't think anyone is a "fan" of simulators (job wise)...except the guy in the back that is getting paid to kill/humiliate/train/impart knowledge/empathise/motivate and pass us... all for the safety/benefit/comfort of the travelling public :ok:

GW

The scary thing to me is if the two-men theory is correct these investigators will have a hell of a time identifying the culprits. I'm just thinking of the possible evidence that would exist in a case like that and it could be very little. The main lead would be what some shady stolen passport dealer in Thailand? And CCTV footage.

Obviously whatever networks they would have been involved in are not well penetrated by intelligence agencies.

Malaysia does scan fingerprints on arrival but who is to say that procedure wasn't bypassed also.

I'm just thinking of the wider implications, it seems to still be fairly easy to blow up a plane. Allowing myself to engage in rampant speculation to address an issue larger than the incident itself

@henra
 

Thanks very much for your explanation.

In one of the early posts on this thread, the flightaware, or other source, showed a heading of 024 degrees. The next heading, in the same minute showed a heading of about 340 degrees (if I remember correctly). That was the last data transmission.

Some "reliable sources" had said that radar data shows the plane turning back.

I wonder if this could have been the start of a high speed problem from which there was no recovery.

Regards,

OBD

"WTF is a simulator fan???"

Most of the unqualified posters on here

Submarines In SAR
 

Malaysia has " highly sophiscated " Scorpene submarines which have French made technology....why are these assets not used? AF447 was in deep ocean waters. I believe the depths of the Gulf of Siam is shallower but should be able to accommodate the Scorpenes; they would certainly be a crowning moment for the much ridiculed decision to buy the subs.;):ok:

Nice to wake up this morning around 3.00 am and see that some or most of the fringe dwellers have yet to surface.

Talk of meteorites, aliens, mid air collisions, suicide, SR71 and craziness from our IT Expert, EGLD with his laughable CCTV suggestions have all but disappeared!

Just some late night dogs kicking the topic round in a fairly professional fashion.

I too am both amazed and a little disappointed to notice the severe culling of posts that are there one moment and then suddenly gone the next.

I had the decency, I thought, to tell the Mods what a "fairly" good job they were doing considering the pressure they have been under on the highest traffic topic for many a long year.

Let's hope today brings the mystery to a close! The pros in the business are mostly leaning towards terrorism whilst the rest of the pack live in a world of fantasy, understandable I guess in the circumstances of such a mystery.

In VMC and proper daylight and in an intentional maneuver I would take that as a given .

Unprepared at night over Sea or ín IMC?
Not quite as easy. The Instruments will be apparently 'tumbling', g load will be straight vertical into the seat and without external reference even identifying the direction of rotation will not be that easy, especially when a significant rate and g load has already developped.
Vertigo included for free.
In AF447 they even didn't manage to identify a simple stall...
A spiral dive or spin w/o external reference is in a different league compared to that.

Hi Coagie,

The topic of my PM being raised here, let's pick it from here:
So did I.

Yes, I remember the review of the sonar tapes. OTOH, I don't remember the part where the french submariners were so silly as to not know what they were looking for. The review itself is far from enough to arrive to such a conclusion.

Fastcruise
 

Is recovery from spin part of PPL training, a aerodynamic flutter would lead to mid air disintegration. I would say that a ADIRU malfunction could lead to mishandling of controls to a deep stall, which would cause an almost intact descent till impact.

It's track was 25 deg. Just before it disappeared its track changed to 40 deg combined with a slight drop in airspeed

Looks like digital noise from a high ISO to me.

Edit: I see MSJH agrees with me.