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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

awblain 22nd Mar 2014 12:30

Inmarsat know what they're doing. When they say how far the aircraft was from their 64E satellite at 11 minutes past the hours they can be trusted.

They're about the only originator of useful information in the whole saga.

Sadly, it looks like this could remain unsolved, unless someone has a lot of luck with a 43kHz sonar, or some international persons of mystery are willing to stack weather satellite/IR full-disk early warning images from the night of the flight or gets lucky with some archived radar data. Even then, it's going to be hard.

I hope I have to retract that, but two weeks on, it's looking like it'll be a long time before there's any more real news.

UnreliableSource 22nd Mar 2014 12:32

Air Observers
 

I hear they are sending SES crews from VIC as well now ?

Bloody hell, what a circus.

Must be a few, well connected "wanna be's" in the VIC SES
Airservices Australia trains volunteers they largely source through the SES to be air observers on SAR missions. Commercial aircraft get chartered and the eyeballs come from this pool of trained volunteers. Volunteers are flown on both training and real missions.

When I was in the SES in my younger days I flew on a whole bunch of SAR missions. I personally never saw anything, but whenever something was found, somebody's eyeballs found it.

deadheader 22nd Mar 2014 12:33

Endurance: calling all navigators
 

Originally Posted by hamster3null (Post 8393996)
They keep looking further and further south. It's really starting to stretch imagination. Latitude 45 south? MH370 _might_ have run out of fuel close to the spot if it turned due south as soon as it was out of range of Butterworth, passing over a broad swath of Sumatra along the way. If (more likely) it continued at least 30 min. on the original heading before turning, in order to stay clear of Indonesia, it would only get as far as latitude 36 by the last ping, latitude 40 if it stayed airborne for another 30 minutes after that.

Interesting, Hamster... Has anyone here determined a reasonably accurate range/endurance given we know:


49.1 metric tons of fuel, TOW 223.5 tons, air temp & meteo/wind, rate of climb, cruise speed (to loss of comms), & we have an idea of flight path (radar) & descent to 5000ft AMSL from LKP to LEP.


From that info some here must be able to ascertain a reasonably accurate estimated max range based on a couple of scenarios:


A> 2nd climb back to FL350, cruise until flame out + glide
B> no 2nd climb, continue at 5000ft until flame out + glide
C> assume no descent from IGARI & FL350 maintained until flame out + glide


Any navigators here with the appropriate knowledge & skills willing to post some calcs/estimates???


Might prove helpful for the crowd ;-)

lostinp 22nd Mar 2014 12:39

UnreliableSource
The satellites are digital launched in 1995
You may be thinking of the original Satcom A satellites launched in 1979

threemiles 22nd Mar 2014 12:40

Slight correction to previous post
 
http://i62.tinypic.com/ff6z2d.jpg

Last radar plot is R285/250NM from Butterworth.

That the Chinese twitter image shows R295/200NM is irritating again. If this is the quality of investigation how can we believe what they say else.

UnreliableSource 22nd Mar 2014 12:41

Quality of satellite images
 

What am I missing here?

My garden is 5 metres x 12 metres and even on the standard Google Maps satellite view you can see my garden shed, footpath, fruit trees and a 2m x 3m vegetable patch. Standard Google Earth will even show the 20cm x 40cm steps on my grass.

So why are we being shown these very low resolution satellite photos anytime anything is found? I know the operators of these satellites don't want to reveal capability but come on, I'm sure a resolution at least as good as to that of Google Maps is no big military or commercial secret.
Google maps pictures might be updated once a year; this is because it takes that long to get around a photographing every place of interest at high resolution. If you look at google maps images away from metro areas the resolution gets quite poor.

Trying to quickly cover huge areas of oceans that may never have been photographed before is challenging.

Pontius Navigator 22nd Mar 2014 12:47


Originally Posted by deadheader (Post 8394201)
49.1 metric tons of fuel, TOW 223.5 tons, air temp & meteo/wind, rate of climb, cruise speed (to loss of comms), & we have an idea of flight path (radar) & descent to 5000ft AMSL from LKP to LEP.

. . .

A> 2nd climb back to FL350, cruise until flame out + glide
B> no 2nd climb, continue at 5000ft until flame out + glide
C> assume no descent from IGARI & FL350 maintained until flame out + glide


Any navigators here with the appropriate knowledge & skills willing to post some calcs/estimates???

Deadheader, as with everything else here, not enough information.

Would need the operating data manual, did it descend to 5000ft and only C applies. Did it cruise climb so have a longer descent? What met winds at all heights and over a whole postulated route?

PerS 22nd Mar 2014 12:48

If located this is what they would use
 
This is a video regarding "who to" find objects in deep water.
Belive this company was part of the recovery of Air France black boxes.

F-1 Engine Recovery | Bezos Expeditions

RATpin 22nd Mar 2014 12:50

onetrack,a different set of protocols apples to visiting foreign airforces.

MC3 22nd Mar 2014 12:51

Lost in translation
 
I am an ATC and the transcript also surprised me.
I guess the problem is that it is a translation from English to Chinese and then to English. However, the lack of read back is not explained by incorrect translation.

PilotsResearch 22nd Mar 2014 12:59

Google's "satellite" images
 
In populated areas, Google's "satellite" images aren't from satellites. They're taken from planes flying over at 800-1500 feet altitude.

See Google's description

To get a sense for Google's true satellite resolution, zoom in on a remote area, say, rural Newfoundland. Even buildings look blurry there.

oldoberon 22nd Mar 2014 13:11

fg32 :-


The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said.
are you interpreting this as ( note the comma)


The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator, while pinging, McLaughlin said.
or


The plane flew steadily away from the satellite, over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said.
At least one of those interviews is on here I will see if I can find it

awblain 22nd Mar 2014 13:24

From their own data, Inmarsat can't say whether it was going North or South: they inferred that North was unlikely, as someone would have seen it go by.

fg32 22nd Mar 2014 13:27

Sorry oldoberon

Both quotes are cut and paste from the interview reports

IBTimes report of interview: Report 20 Mar
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade

There are multiple reports of the Fox news one. I got my quotes from here, well down under "satellite Analysis:
Hunt for Jet Switches to Visual Search as Radar Empty - Bloomberg

Speed of Sound 22nd Mar 2014 13:29

Google Maps
 
PilotsResearch, UnreliableSource, & mm_flynn, thank you for your replies.

I had always assumed that as you toggle between 'Map View' and 'Satellite View' on Google Maps, all images were from a satellite. :*

fg32 22nd Mar 2014 13:38

awblain

From their own data, Inmarsat can't say whether it was going North or South: they inferred that North was unlikely, as someone would have seen it go by.
Agreed. The only reasons I have seen against North are
"it would have been seen" - but how about the long transit across Indonesia?
And (more recently) "the pinger batteries will run out, so sea first".
I don't think much of either.

Particularly since, in the south, nothing but dead people.
In the north, tiny chance of survivors on a remote hillside.
I know which I'd prioritise.

The resources aren't interchangeable, though, are they, and the access more problematic. I'd at least throw all at the north that I could, though. The Malaysians have two search aircraft in Khazakstan. Maybe its just the media neglecting the northern efforts.

oldoberon 22nd Mar 2014 13:44


Originally Posted by fg32 (Post 8394286)
Sorry oldoberon

Both quotes are cut and paste from the interview reports

IBTimes report of interview: Report 20 Mar
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade

There are multiple reports of the Fox news one. I got my quotes from here, well down under "satellite Analysis:
Hunt for Jet Switches to Visual Search as Radar Empty - Bloomberg

Apologies not needed and thanks for reply

Here is what i believe to be one of the source interviews with megan kelly on Fox, she appears to be far more objective than your average talking head, I did not hear in the interview that exact quote.


Satellite Company Inmarsat Says Its Data Could Help Find Malaysia Airliner - Fox Nation

awblain 22nd Mar 2014 13:47

The lack of a beacon signal also indicates something: either a hard impact or a safe landing in the north or a quick sinking in the south. A sinking in the South makes more sense to me.

If it's sitting on the ground somewhere in central Asia, and there were no further Inmarsat calls because the power was turned off, I'm sure a radar difference image between three weeks ago and two weeks ago would have been able to show it up.

How many places with a 777-sized hangar to hide it in are there in central Asia?

There would seem to be no prospect of survivors, so the only issue is whether the causes can be determined.

felix505 22nd Mar 2014 13:47

ATC @ 1700-1730Z on 7 March (+8hrs)
 
WMKK Kuala Lumpur Control radio traffic 1700-1730Z is available as a downloadable archive.
The transcript suggests there are comms from Malaysia 370 (MH370) at 17:01:14 (+8 01:01:14)
The archived radio recording is silent at the time indicated in the transcript. The other times indicated in the transcript also do not bear these communications, through to 01:19:29.

Each downloadable file is 30 minutes long, so that final transmission would be at 19:29 in that 30 min file.
http://archive-server.liveatc.net/wm...2014-1700Z.mp3
LiveATC.Net ATC Audio Archives

One of the transcript links Revealed: the final 54 minutes of communication from MH370 - Telegraph

Maybe I have got the wrong day...

fg32 22nd Mar 2014 13:49

Pontius Navigator

If it flew over the equator then it had to fly south.
McClaughlan said it, but he gave no evidence.
Later he has said the reason he said it is that "it would have been seen if it went north".
Firstly, thats an assumption, Secondly, as Inmarsat, such a judgement is not his job.
Look at his resume. He's not technical. PR man.


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