Inmarsat know what they're doing. When they say how far the aircraft was from their 64E satellite at 11 minutes past the hours they can be trusted.
They're about the only originator of useful information in the whole saga. Sadly, it looks like this could remain unsolved, unless someone has a lot of luck with a 43kHz sonar, or some international persons of mystery are willing to stack weather satellite/IR full-disk early warning images from the night of the flight or gets lucky with some archived radar data. Even then, it's going to be hard. I hope I have to retract that, but two weeks on, it's looking like it'll be a long time before there's any more real news. |
Air Observers
I hear they are sending SES crews from VIC as well now ? Bloody hell, what a circus. Must be a few, well connected "wanna be's" in the VIC SES When I was in the SES in my younger days I flew on a whole bunch of SAR missions. I personally never saw anything, but whenever something was found, somebody's eyeballs found it. |
Endurance: calling all navigators
Originally Posted by hamster3null
(Post 8393996)
They keep looking further and further south. It's really starting to stretch imagination. Latitude 45 south? MH370 _might_ have run out of fuel close to the spot if it turned due south as soon as it was out of range of Butterworth, passing over a broad swath of Sumatra along the way. If (more likely) it continued at least 30 min. on the original heading before turning, in order to stay clear of Indonesia, it would only get as far as latitude 36 by the last ping, latitude 40 if it stayed airborne for another 30 minutes after that.
49.1 metric tons of fuel, TOW 223.5 tons, air temp & meteo/wind, rate of climb, cruise speed (to loss of comms), & we have an idea of flight path (radar) & descent to 5000ft AMSL from LKP to LEP. From that info some here must be able to ascertain a reasonably accurate estimated max range based on a couple of scenarios: A> 2nd climb back to FL350, cruise until flame out + glide B> no 2nd climb, continue at 5000ft until flame out + glide C> assume no descent from IGARI & FL350 maintained until flame out + glide Any navigators here with the appropriate knowledge & skills willing to post some calcs/estimates??? Might prove helpful for the crowd ;-) |
UnreliableSource
The satellites are digital launched in 1995 You may be thinking of the original Satcom A satellites launched in 1979 |
Slight correction to previous post
http://i62.tinypic.com/ff6z2d.jpg
Last radar plot is R285/250NM from Butterworth. That the Chinese twitter image shows R295/200NM is irritating again. If this is the quality of investigation how can we believe what they say else. |
Quality of satellite images
What am I missing here? My garden is 5 metres x 12 metres and even on the standard Google Maps satellite view you can see my garden shed, footpath, fruit trees and a 2m x 3m vegetable patch. Standard Google Earth will even show the 20cm x 40cm steps on my grass. So why are we being shown these very low resolution satellite photos anytime anything is found? I know the operators of these satellites don't want to reveal capability but come on, I'm sure a resolution at least as good as to that of Google Maps is no big military or commercial secret. Trying to quickly cover huge areas of oceans that may never have been photographed before is challenging. |
Originally Posted by deadheader
(Post 8394201)
49.1 metric tons of fuel, TOW 223.5 tons, air temp & meteo/wind, rate of climb, cruise speed (to loss of comms), & we have an idea of flight path (radar) & descent to 5000ft AMSL from LKP to LEP.
. . . A> 2nd climb back to FL350, cruise until flame out + glide B> no 2nd climb, continue at 5000ft until flame out + glide C> assume no descent from IGARI & FL350 maintained until flame out + glide Any navigators here with the appropriate knowledge & skills willing to post some calcs/estimates??? Would need the operating data manual, did it descend to 5000ft and only C applies. Did it cruise climb so have a longer descent? What met winds at all heights and over a whole postulated route? |
If located this is what they would use
This is a video regarding "who to" find objects in deep water.
Belive this company was part of the recovery of Air France black boxes. F-1 Engine Recovery | Bezos Expeditions |
onetrack,a different set of protocols apples to visiting foreign airforces.
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Lost in translation
I am an ATC and the transcript also surprised me.
I guess the problem is that it is a translation from English to Chinese and then to English. However, the lack of read back is not explained by incorrect translation. |
Google's "satellite" images
In populated areas, Google's "satellite" images aren't from satellites. They're taken from planes flying over at 800-1500 feet altitude.
See Google's description To get a sense for Google's true satellite resolution, zoom in on a remote area, say, rural Newfoundland. Even buildings look blurry there. |
fg32 :-
The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator, while pinging, McLaughlin said. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite, over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said. |
From their own data, Inmarsat can't say whether it was going North or South: they inferred that North was unlikely, as someone would have seen it go by.
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Sorry oldoberon
Both quotes are cut and paste from the interview reports IBTimes report of interview: Report 20 Mar Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade There are multiple reports of the Fox news one. I got my quotes from here, well down under "satellite Analysis: Hunt for Jet Switches to Visual Search as Radar Empty - Bloomberg |
Google Maps
PilotsResearch, UnreliableSource, & mm_flynn, thank you for your replies.
I had always assumed that as you toggle between 'Map View' and 'Satellite View' on Google Maps, all images were from a satellite. :* |
awblain
From their own data, Inmarsat can't say whether it was going North or South: they inferred that North was unlikely, as someone would have seen it go by. "it would have been seen" - but how about the long transit across Indonesia? And (more recently) "the pinger batteries will run out, so sea first". I don't think much of either. Particularly since, in the south, nothing but dead people. In the north, tiny chance of survivors on a remote hillside. I know which I'd prioritise. The resources aren't interchangeable, though, are they, and the access more problematic. I'd at least throw all at the north that I could, though. The Malaysians have two search aircraft in Khazakstan. Maybe its just the media neglecting the northern efforts. |
Originally Posted by fg32
(Post 8394286)
Sorry oldoberon
Both quotes are cut and paste from the interview reports IBTimes report of interview: Report 20 Mar Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade There are multiple reports of the Fox news one. I got my quotes from here, well down under "satellite Analysis: Hunt for Jet Switches to Visual Search as Radar Empty - Bloomberg Here is what i believe to be one of the source interviews with megan kelly on Fox, she appears to be far more objective than your average talking head, I did not hear in the interview that exact quote. Satellite Company Inmarsat Says Its Data Could Help Find Malaysia Airliner - Fox Nation |
The lack of a beacon signal also indicates something: either a hard impact or a safe landing in the north or a quick sinking in the south. A sinking in the South makes more sense to me.
If it's sitting on the ground somewhere in central Asia, and there were no further Inmarsat calls because the power was turned off, I'm sure a radar difference image between three weeks ago and two weeks ago would have been able to show it up. How many places with a 777-sized hangar to hide it in are there in central Asia? There would seem to be no prospect of survivors, so the only issue is whether the causes can be determined. |
ATC @ 1700-1730Z on 7 March (+8hrs)
WMKK Kuala Lumpur Control radio traffic 1700-1730Z is available as a downloadable archive.
The transcript suggests there are comms from Malaysia 370 (MH370) at 17:01:14 (+8 01:01:14) The archived radio recording is silent at the time indicated in the transcript. The other times indicated in the transcript also do not bear these communications, through to 01:19:29. Each downloadable file is 30 minutes long, so that final transmission would be at 19:29 in that 30 min file. http://archive-server.liveatc.net/wm...2014-1700Z.mp3 LiveATC.Net ATC Audio Archives One of the transcript links Revealed: the final 54 minutes of communication from MH370 - Telegraph Maybe I have got the wrong day... |
Pontius Navigator
If it flew over the equator then it had to fly south. Later he has said the reason he said it is that "it would have been seen if it went north". Firstly, thats an assumption, Secondly, as Inmarsat, such a judgement is not his job. Look at his resume. He's not technical. PR man. |
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