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Search Area Weather Prediction
Although they are just on the edge of the search zone these model predictions give some idea of probable weather changes affecting the search area.
Click on each image for better resolution. Prediction quality is inversely proportional to time in future 10-day BoM ACCESS model weather forecast of isobars and rain https://www.dropbox.com/s/muunbzc6gd2egi2/search.png |
nitpicker330 F14 highly unlikely the FO or Captain couldn't get back in. Without going into details you can gain access UNLESS the person inside doesn't want you to. The people that need to know the code, know the code. (1) No checking in with Vietnamese after clearing Malaysian airspace (2) Transponder and ACARS turned off at this point (3) Turning off track (4) No Mayday call (5) Possible height excursion Whether one of the pilots has fire-axed the other or locked him out and depressurised the aircraft remains to be seen. I would be astonished if this is not a criminal act. |
I can assure you the people, who should know the code, don't necessarily know the code. Many airlines, routinely leave the cockpit single crew, when another pilot take a break or a comfort stop.
The second point I made, was the code may have been changed as part of a company specific security protocol and not propagated to the crew via communication or in the tech log. Due to familiarity/aircraft change or rushing, the code not confirmed or checked pre departure. All these elements have human factors related threats. Sensible airlines never leave the cockpit single crew. This is not an industry wide procedure though. There is also a huge difference between suicide and mass murder and torture. Sorry but these pilot profiles, don't point towards this. |
I may be wrong, so please let me know.....
But, l don't believe that the 'Nobody on the flight deck" rule is the same the world over. I know the UK and USA will not allow visits. |
MH370: New satellite images show 122 potential objects, some bright and up to 23m long, in ocean, Malaysia minister says.
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Past E & E Bay Fires
FACTUAL DATA.
Notes; 'Blankets' refers to the PET acoustic/thermal insulation. AD 2008-23-09 calls for removal of PET (aka Mylar-AN-26) by Dec 2016.) 4/8/2010. Cathay 747, Reg # B-HOV > “Burnt” Blankets in avionics compartment. Cause; electrical short. Source; BEA (Bureau d' Enquetes et d' Analyses) Report on B-HOV. BEA Report Link > http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2010/hs-l...l100318.en.pdf -------------------- 3/18/2010. Thai 747, Reg # HS-TGL. Burnt Blankets in avionics compartment. Cause; electrical short. Source: BEA (Bureau d' Enquetes et d' Analyses) Report on HS-TGL. - BEA Report Link > http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2010/hs-l...l100318.en.pdf ----------------------- 2/26/2007. United 777. Blankets “ignited” at P 200 panel in E & E bay. Blanket type; PET-Mylar- AN-26. Source; AAIB Report # 2/2009. BEA Report Link > http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2010/hs-l...l100318.en.pdf AD Link > http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory...2008-23-09.pdf -------------------------- 11/15/2004. British Airways 777. Fire in E&E bay. Cause; arcing at external power terminals. Source; NTSB Safety Recommendation Letter A-07-113-116. Letter Link > http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/recletter...07_113_116.pdf --------------------- 7/6/2004. United 777. “Thermal Damage” Blankets in E&E bay. No Cause. Source NTSB Safety Recommendation Letter A-07-113-116, ref 2. Letter Link > http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/recletter...07_113_116.pdf ---------------------- 3/28/2004. Continental 757. Fire damage to structure in E&E bay. Cause; wire arcing. Source; SDR # & Link CALA0400292. Source; SDR Query Link > FAA :: SDR Reporting [Service Difficulty Report Query Page] enter SDR # and run query. ---------------------- 11/1/1999. Carrier not given, 737-500. Wiring fire in E & E bay. . No cause. Source; U.K. (MOR) Mandatory Occurrence Reporting report 199907499. Reference to page 35 of AAIB Aircraft Accident Report 5/2000. “Significant Electrical Arcing Events”. AAIB Rpt - Link > http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources...0%20N653UA.pdf --------------------- 11/28/1998. Foreign 747. “Film (blanket) Consumed in the fire” in E & E bay. Cause; wire arcing. Source; AAIB Bulletin No: 6/99 EW/C98/11/7. Link > AAIB Link > Air Accidents Investigation: Boeing 501413 ------------------------------ 1/9/1998. United 767. Wiring Fire in E & E bay. Cause, arcing. Wire insulation ETFE and Kapton. Source; AAIB report 5/2000. AAIB Link > http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources...0%20N653UA.pdf ------------------------- 10/10/94. ‘Beijing’ 737. Blankets on fire in E & E bay. Cause; wire short. No NTSB report Source; FAA Tech Center Report DOT/FAA/AR-97/58. Report Link > Tech Report Link > http://www.tc.faa.gov/its/worldpac/techrpt/ar97-58.pdf Example 2. ------------------------ End |
press conference
The rep ports above are a worry. I saw the Halifax doco how Mylar burned. Why do people have an issue with the idea that something like this might have occurred.
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Malaysia "Bruised" by the Press ?
Sturdy riposte to a question at the Press conference about Malaysia's future after such a "bruising" by the press, the Acting Transport Minister reminded the audience that, in an unprecedented incident such as this, not many countries, particularly in SE Asia, could have brought together 26 countries, to help and co-operate as they are doing. He believes that in the end history will judge them well.
Fact is we live in a Hollywood-influenced world where you can save the whole planet from asteroids inside 90 minutes so long as Bruce Willis or Morgan Freeman is involved. Perhaps it's time for critics to moderate their expectations. |
Originally Posted by multycpl
(Post 8401851)
I may be wrong, so please let me know.....
But, l don't believe that the 'Nobody on the flight deck" rule is the same the world over. I know the UK and USA will not allow visits. They didn't; as far as I know they simply ignored it. Of course the answer there might be they didn't want a blame-game witch hunt early in the search phase. |
Did the acting aviation minister say when the satellite data showing the 122 objects was acquired (by the satellite not the Malaysians) ?
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I can assure you the people, who should know the code, don't necessarily know the code. Many airlines, routinely leave the cockpit single crew, when another pilot take a break or a comfort stop. Whether you subscribe to one of the pilots committing this act or not, the fact remains that the transponder and ACARS were switched off. Whether it's hijack or pilot suicide, those items were disabled for a reason as was the absence of a radio call to Vietnam on airspace transition. |
Did the acting aviation minister say when the satellite data showing the 122 objects was acquired (by the satellite not the Malaysians) ? |
Did the acting aviation minister say when the satellite data showing the 122 objects was acquired (by the satellite not the Malaysians) ? Hope this is not another Wild goose chase considering how many objects are being sighted |
Originally Posted by Orion Man
(Post 8401837)
Whether one of the pilots has fire-axed the other or locked him out and depressurised the aircraft remains to be seen. I would be astonished if this is not a criminal act.
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We don't leave the Crew alone in the cockpit in our mob and I can assure you that those in my crew that need to know the codes, know the codes required.:ok:
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Serious question here-----
They say they've spotted 100+ objects of interest in the Indian Ocean where they are searching from the Satellites pictures.... How old are these pictures exactly that the search Aircraft cannot seem to find the debris?????? How long is the time between taking the picture and getting the location coordinates to the search Aircraft???? Surely it could be very quick???? |
nitpicker330 They say they've spotted 100+ objects of interest in the Indian Ocean where they are searching from Satellites.... How old are these pictures exactly that the search Aircraft cannot seem to find the debris?????? How long is the time between taking the picture and getting the picture to the search Aircraft???? Surely it could be very quick???? |
No. The satellites involved are not geo-stationary.
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Here's the press briefing for today (26th March 2014)
MH370 PRESS BRIEFING BY HISHAMMUDDIN HUSSEIN, MINISTER OF DEFENCE AND ACTING MINISTER OF TRANSPORT 26 MARCH 2014, 5:30PM Introductory statement The search for MH370 continues. Our efforts are now focused in the southern Indian Ocean, where a multi-national team, led by Australia, is combing the waters trying to find debris from the flight. Our determination to find MH370 remains steadfast. As we have said all along, we will never give up trying to find the plane – in order to bring closure for the families, and to establish exactly what happened to MH370. New satellite images Australia, China and France have already released satellite images, showing objects that may be related to MH370. Yesterday, on 25 March, the Malaysian Remote Sensing Agency (MRSA) received new satellite images from Airbus Defence and Space, which is based in France. The images were taken on 23 March. MRSA analysed the images and - in one area of the ocean measuring some 400 square kilometres - were able to identify 122 potential objects. Some objects were a metre in length; others were as much as 23 metres in length. Some of the objects appeared to be bright, possibly indicating solid materials. The objects were located approximately 2,557 kilometres from Perth. We will issue handouts relating to this new information, after this press conference. MRSA’s findings were immediately forwarded to the Australian Rescue Co-ordination Centre in Perth yesterday. It must be emphasized that we cannot tell whether the potential objects are from MH370. Nevertheless, this is another new lead that will help direct the search operation. We have now had four separate satellite leads, from Australia, China and France, showing possible debris. It is now imperative that we link the debris to MH370. This will enable us to further reduce the search area, and locate more debris from the plane. 2. Operational update Australia is leading the search effort in the southern Indian Ocean, based out of Perth. Malaysia continues to play a co-ordinating role. All countries involved are displaying unprecedented levels of co-operation; that has not changed. Australia has divided the search area into two sectors, East and West. Today the weather has improved, and twelve planes will travel to the search area – six in the East sector and six in the West. In the East sector, searches will be conducted by: · one Australian P3 Orion, and three Australian civilian aircraft. · one Chinese Ilyushin IL-76. · one New Zealand P3 Orion. In the West sector, searches will be conducted by: · one US P8 Poseidon. · one Korean P3 Orion. · one Japanese P3 Orion. · two Australian P3 Orions, and one civilian aircraft. Two ships will also join the search operations. Yesterday ‘HMAS Success’ was redeployed to the south of the search area due to bad weather. Today the ship has returned and will support the search operation in the West sector. Meanwhile, the Chinese ship ‘Xue Long’ has today been deployed to the East sector. A Japanese Coast Guard gulfstream aircraft left Subang this morning for Perth, to join the search operation. As I mentioned yesterday, the search operations in the northern corridor, and in the northern part of the southern corridor, have been called off. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent diplomatic notes to all relevant countries to formally inform them of this change. Before I continue, I would like to convey our appreciation to the Australian authorities, and in particular to Prime Minister Tony Abbot, for making such an extraordinary contribution to the search operation. Chinese Special Envoy Today, the Prime Minister met with His Excellency Zhang Yesui, the Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Special Envoy of the Government of China. I also met with His Excellency this afternoon. During our conversation His Excellency conveyed China’s commitment to continue and intensify the search operation in any way possible, and to deploy any assets that may be required. Malaysia has provided his His Excellency and his delegation with a full update on the latest information from Inmarsat. His Excellency and his delegation also received a comprehensive briefing from the international technical team. 4. International Working Group As I mentioned yesterday, based on the new information provided by Inmarsat, we have established an international working group. The agencies involved in this working group include: Inmarsat, AAIB, the Chinese CAAC and AAID, NTSB, FAA, Boeing and Rolls Royce, as well as the relevant Malaysian authorities. The role of the working group is to help try and refine the Inmarsat data and, if possible, more accurately determine the final position of MH370. 5. Further information I should like to note that the CEO of Malindo Airlines, Chandran Rama Murthy, has joined me on stage today, and will be able to answer any questions that you might have. As I announced yesterday, MAS is now taking a lead in communicating with the families and is conducting their own press conferences. MAS will hold another press conference tomorrow. Concluding remarks New satellite images continue to provide clues in the search for MH370. And with improved weather conditions, aircraft are now able to investigate objects of interest. I would like to thank once again our international partners for their continued support and assistance. The search for MH370, and the investigation into what happened on board the flight, is now a truly international effort. ENDS Source: Ministry of Transport Malaysia |
The delay in finding objects of interest from satellite imagery will no doubt be due in part to the need for many eyes to painstakingly assess each image,of which there must be thousands.
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should like to note that the CEO of Malindo Airlines, Chandran Rama Murthy, has joined me on stage today, and will be able to answer any questions that you might have. |
should like to note that the CEO of Malindo Airlines, Chandran Rama Murthy, has joined me on stage today, and will be able to answer any questions that you might have.
Originally Posted by Wannabe Flyer
Any particular reason or significance of this?
Malindo Air confirms plane caught fire but landed safely in Subang |
Originally Posted by TWT
(Post 8401969)
The delay in finding objects of interest from satellite imagery will no doubt be due in part to the need for many eyes to painstakingly assess each image,of which there must be thousands.
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That thing looks very much like a fire suppression bottle to me. Is anyone official on the way to have a look?
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Sure looks like a fire bottle, but doesn't look big enough to be from a 777, look at the size in relation to the foliage.
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It doesn't matter if you know the code. Let's leave it at that.
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Mobile Phone Survivability?
One thing which nobody seems to have mentioned so far is the possible use of onboard images and audio recorded on passenger and crew mobile phones in any investigation.
Many on here are agreed that the most useful portion of the CVR recordings will have been overwritten and this may or may not be recoverable. There is also concern that both DFDRs may have been disabled during whatever events occurred on MH370. It is not outside the realms of possibility that when the wreckage is finally located, there may be very little data available to investigators. If, and it's a big if, passengers and crew were still conscious during some or all of the flight south, it is very likely that audio and video recordings exist on the 200+ mobile phones on board at the time. In the old days Nokia phones were famous for their ability to survive immersion in water and work perfectly again after removing the battery and leaving them in a warm place for a few hours. I have seen a few telecoms engineers posting here in the last two weeks. Does anyone know the likely survivability of a modern 'smartphone' (or more relevantly, the data contained) inside a crashed aircraft in deep salt water? :confused: |
HH, the bottle could be for the APU.
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In the press briefing diagram giving Lat/Long coordinates, why do they publish them with Long first then Lat ? |
Ventus - your water spill theory sounds possible, with reservations.
A water spill like the QF2 747 water spill would have initially caused numerous problems. You can easily imagine the pilots rerouting to Langkawi. But why wouldn't they transmit a mayday? Maybe they were too busy flying and fault diagnosing? Seems unlikely (but not impossible - after all, the 747 water spill crew didn't declare a mayday either). Anyway, after 30 minutes the plane battery runs out and they lose all communication and navigation and many other critical systems. At this point they cannot tell anyone what is happening and they would be flying blind in a crippled plane at night with only basic flight controls. At this point they are in real trouble. It does seem possible that in this scenario (especially if its cloudy) they get disoriented or accidentally induce a turn, and head south, with occasional changes in altitude and direction, hoping to find a runway somewhere. Their situation would get worse and worse, and eventually they run out of fuel and get forced to ditch. But would they really end up getting THAT lost? |
@Mahatma Kote
Re. Use of a PC secure deletion tool being a "red flag": That would be an old policeman's attitude - "what do you have to hide". I'd suggest that in these days of online privacy concerns, more people than you might think use such tools. Should they all be suspected of illicit activity? No. The flight simulator is an odd sidelight in this sad episode. As usual, evidence from the aircraft will tell the tale. |
Originally Posted by nigf
(Post 8401923)
I wonder if God forbid one of the SAR crafts ditches due to some failure how the heck will they be rescued ?
There are lots of other SAR aircraft on the route. In the search area thee are specialist ships. |
As far as I am aware (B747 Tech in a past life) the APU and engine fire bottles are the same size.
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Originally Posted by Speed of Sound
(Post 8402018)
One thing which nobody seems to have mentioned so far is the possible use of onboard images and audio recorded on passenger and crew mobile phones in any investigation.
it is very likely that audio and video recordings exist on the 200+ mobile phones on board at the time. Good call. |
Originally Posted by jimster99
(Post 8402034)
A water spill like the QF2 747 water spill would have initially caused numerous problems. You can easily imagine the pilots rerouting to Langkawi. But why wouldn't they transmit a mayday? Maybe they were too busy flying and fault diagnosing? Seems unlikely (but not impossible - after all, the 747 water spill crew didn't declare a mayday either).
If, as you suggest, they were still able to fly the aircraft, then it’s far more likely that if they had a problem then they would have attempted to return to KLIA (which, unlike Langkawi, operates around the clock). And I simply can’t believe that they wouldn’t have communicated their intentions. Even the ill fated Swissair 111 was in contact with ATC before it’s demise. |
Originally Posted by jimster99
(Post 8402034)
Ventus - your water spill theory sounds possible, with reservations.
A water spill like the QF2 747 water spill would have initially caused numerous problems. You can easily imagine the pilots rerouting to Langkawi. But why wouldn't they transmit a mayday? Maybe they were too busy flying and fault diagnosing? Seems unlikely (but not impossible - after all, the 747 water spill crew didn't declare a mayday either). Anyway, after 30 minutes the plane battery runs out and they lose all communication and navigation and many other critical systems. At this point they cannot tell anyone what is happening and they would be flying blind in a crippled plane at night with only basic flight controls. At this point they are in real trouble. It does seem possible that in this scenario (especially if its cloudy) they get disoriented or accidentally induce a turn, and head south, with occasional changes in altitude and direction, hoping to find a runway somewhere. Their situation would get worse and worse, and eventually they run out of fuel and get forced to ditch. But would they really end up getting THAT lost? http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17...s.jpg~original |
Originally Posted by Lost in Saigon
(Post 8402075)
Even after 30 mins, the aircraft can continue flying and they still have a good old reliable standby magnetic "Spirit" compass.
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Use of a PC secure deletion tool being a "red flag": That would be an old policeman's attitude I'm definitely no cop nor have I ever been. I just know what's normal and not normal. Getting on topic. If a deletion tool has been used then there are very grave suspicions about the user. Let's wait and see what is revealed in subsequent investigations. |
Every time a terror act happened somewhere the US noticed an increase in telephon "traffic" in certain areas.We`ve heard anything yet,of course thy don`t have to tell us,buit i think it`s possible something would have been leaked already.
Don`t saying it was no technical faillure,but i thonk one should really take a closer look at the state of mind of the ctp after his wife left him.For some people it could have an devasting effect. About the possible try to go back to KUL,i´ve have thougt,they would have waited til dawn,fuel was enough,maybe not a good idea to arrive therein the middle of the night with no means for comms. |
In the press briefing diagram giving Lat/Long coordinates, why do they publish them with Long first then Lat ? Google Earth and Google Maps do the same thing. Its a geospatial convention. |
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