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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

threemiles 8th Mar 2014 10:46


Have I got something wrong here? FlightAware last reported position 4.7073 102.5278 Course 025 is over land in Malaysia 107nm bearing 027 from KL.
Flightaware does no thave sufficient coverage over the sea.
FR24 has
Here is the full set of factuals at this time

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8359089

milkandhoney 8th Mar 2014 10:46


How do you know they didn't get on the plane?
Because he (the Italian pax) called his family to say he wasn't on the plane, never had tickets, and he had had his passport stolen several months ago.

Worldwidew 8th Mar 2014 10:47

Refer to my post on page 9. He called his parents in Italy from Thailand and told them he was safe and never boarded or booked the flight.

He reported his passport stolen in August 2013 in Thailand.

threemiles 8th Mar 2014 10:47


Just read this:

Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware

Look at the course change and altitude change in seconds, strange.
This recording ends at N4.7 while the aircraft disappeared at N6.9

Flightaware has no sufficent coverage in the area

Chutchada 8th Mar 2014 10:54

With possibly 4 ailerons and maybe 8 roll spoilers a side, I hardly think that the loss of an aileron is a complete loss of a primary flight controls?

threemiles 8th Mar 2014 10:54


I definitely agree, but the ADS-B coverage between Malaysia and Vietnam just before and after Flight 370 are faultless. Flight 370 was in trail behind MAS52, which had complete ADS-B coverage all the way to Vietnam, and another flight followed with no problems in coverage either. Is it possible they are sourcing their data from ARINC or one of the ATC centers there?
FR24 coverage for yellow airplanes is from their own receiver fleet and/or private receivers coupled to their network.

Coverage of MAS370 at the last positon was from "F-WMKC1" station, which suggests it is located at/near Kota Bharu. This stations covers the bay until close to Vietnam. Another station in the area is "F-VVTS1", but it seems not to reach the particular area. Kota Bharu is about 10 min flying time from the last position, roughly 80 NM. No problem for any well located ADS-B receiver of any make.

B772 8th Mar 2014 10:54

If my memory serves me correct there was a modification or similar about 5 years on the B777 Trent thrust reverser. There are 3 separate locking systems, 2 of them are hydraulic and 1 electric. The left and right hand thrust reversers use separate hydraulic systems. Could MH370 be a repeat of the Lauda B767 accident over Thailand ?

StormyKnight 8th Mar 2014 11:00


Vietnam Search Planes Find Twin Oil Slicks, Possibly Jet Engines
Vietnamese search aircraft may have spotted two oil slicks that could be from the jet engines of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which was a twin-engine Boeing 777 jetliner, the government said on its website.

The search pilots spotted two possible oil slicks each 10-15 kilometers in length, about 500 meters apart, some 140 kilometers south of Tho Chu island off southern Vietnam, the statement said.
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

SMT Member 8th Mar 2014 11:00

A bit of idle speculation.

There are, to me, 4 possible scenarios. 1) Sudden and catastrophic failure. 2) Act of terrorism. 3) Incorrect response to upset by flight crew. 4) Suicide.

1) Is unlikely to be caused by failure of the aircraft, albeit memories of the Lauda Air 767 inflight T/R deployment remain. Outside influences could be the one in a billion metor strike, or an accidental shoot-down by armed forces.

I don't buy the idea of onboard fire; in all such previous cases the crew have had time to radio their plight.

Xeque 8th Mar 2014 11:00

Curiouser and curiouser
 
An Italian living in Thailand reports his passport stolen in August last year.
The same name (and the same passport number??) shows up on the passenger manifest. The same Italian has since contacted his parents to assure them that it is not him. That definitely demands closer scrutiny.
One of the British newspapers (not one known for its accuracy in aviation matters) is showing the aircraft as having crossed Vietnam and come down on the south China coast and quotes Flightaware as the source for its information. Could an aircraft have flown on for so long without any kind of communication or without showing up on Vietnamese radar even if there was no SSR data being transmitted?
The Chinese government has racked up security at all its airports. Why? Do they know something others don't?
Malaysian Airlines are being particularly tight lipped although, to be fair, with no aircraft, no wreckage, no communications, no witnesses (do they get regular engineering reports from the aircraft in flight?) what can they say.
This thing gets curiouser and curiouser.

ColB 8th Mar 2014 11:01


So perhaps someone else boarded the aircraft using his stolen passport.
Certainly one of the first avenues of enquiry for Investigators.

Ulight 8th Mar 2014 11:06

Course change
 

Flight Track Log ? MAS370 ? 08-Mar-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware

Look at the course change and altitude change in seconds, strange.
Without knowing the FP, just speculating, but the course change may have been due to MH370 reaching IGARI. No idea if the heading information on Flightaware is accurate, but the location Malaysian published is just before IGARI slightly west from R208 (assuming it was on this path).

Global Warrior 8th Mar 2014 11:06


A bit of idle speculation.

There are, to me, 3 possible scenarios. 1) Sudden and catastrophic failure. 2) Act of terrorism. 3) Incorrect response to upset by flight crew. 4) Suicide.

1) Is unlikely to be caused by failure of the aircraft, albeit memories of the Lauda Air 767 inflight T/R deployment remain. Outside influences could be the one in a billion metor strike, or an accidental shoot-down by armed forces.

I don't buy the idea of onboard fire; in all such previous cases the crew have had time to radio their plight.
After what happened in a Beijing Railway Station last week, I'm sure there is a lot of interest in option 2.

TCAS_Alert 8th Mar 2014 11:09

With regards to the stolen passport, I wonder how many passengers board flights with stolen passports every day around the world. Whilst it obviously would need investigation it isn't necessarily the answer.

I think it's clear that whatever did happen was very sudden, for the aircraft to either drop to zero with no intermediate path or altitude, or something catastrophic to happen that rendered the ADS-B transponder inoperable immediately.

WYOMINGPILOT 8th Mar 2014 11:18

Way too early to speculate but the majority of the passengers were Chinese about 160 of the 230 passengers. The Chinese have been experiencing relentless terrorist attacks from the Uyghur people from Xinjiang in the far Western China. The most recent attack was a bloody machete wielding mob who hacked up 30 plus people in Kunming, China a whole separate region in Southern, China. There have also occured almost monthly police confrontations and terrorist attacks in Xinjiang. An attempted terrorist hijacking was also carried out last year in Xinjiang on an E-175
but the crew did a valiant job in getting the aircraft on the ground expeditiously and the passengers and crew fought off the attackers. Many of these terrorist attacks go unpublished and are unknown mostly outside of China.

Cross Check 8th Mar 2014 11:23

Gulf of Thailand isn't so deep, at worst around 80m and not even that if the flight sunk enroute from the Malaysian coast to Vietnamese coast. If they crossed over the east coast of Vietnam then there's some deep water in places - ENC shows 100-200m soundings (confirmed by some of the platforms in the area operating in 180m water), until you cross the continental shelf and it drops off to 1000+ meters, even 2000+ meters a little south of Danang. It will really depend where they can pinpoint the impact site, but if it's off the shelf deep-sea recovery will be extremely difficult.

Anyone recall at what depth the AF447 wreakage was located in? Like Airbus, I'm sure Boeing will want know why this airframe went down if humanly possible - like the Adam Air B737 before.

Actually besides Bunga Kekwa A there's around 12 other platforms in the area and north of VungTau up the east coast is heaps more. Hopefully somebody sees something floating in the water.

snowfalcon2 8th Mar 2014 11:27

Avherald has an unconfirmed post about a Vietnamese AN26 search aircraft spotting an oil slick at N 7.55 E103.15. The post says it's from vietnamese news.

This would be 45 NM in direction 327 degrees from the last known position of MH370 reported by FR24, indicating some kind of flying ability after the loss of contact.

Let's wait and see if this is true or false.

HeathrowAirport 8th Mar 2014 11:29

AFR447 depth
 
@Cross Check

3,800 to 4,000 metres (2,100 to 2,200 fathoms; 12,500 to 13,100 ft).

dartman748 8th Mar 2014 11:33

Well I will throw this out there. Thursday we were flying from HKG to Hano late morningi. While in HK airspace a ANA cargo flight reported a TCAS contact 3 miles, at 8 o clock, 1,000 feet below. HK atc called in the blind to the "unidentified" a/c, whih was squawking 1400 to initially identify itself, and when that did not work, to press ident, to which she got a "reply". She was able to verify their level. This went on till we transfered to Sanya, but the ANA guys were able to see the a/c and it was clearly "shadowing" them. I know the Chinese and Americans have being shadow boxing in the region of late, but this is the first time I have heard of a civilian a/c being caught up... At the time it was unnerving. Now,.... Just saying...

Heathrow Harry 8th Mar 2014 11:34

"This would be 45 NM in direction 327 degrees from the last known position of MH370 reported by FR24, indicating some kind of flying ability"

Not so - at Lockerbie debris was scattered for mile forward of the point the plane came apart - - 7 miles and high and several hundred knots means the parabola of bits can be pretty significant.

In fact, in the absence of any other info you can calculate where breakup occurred by logging the different remnants and their size back along the debris trail


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