mary meagher - I don't remember much wind accompanying the weather around Gunung Salak - it just sort of builds up and then the thunder kicks in and it rains like hell for a coupl; of hours - nothing more than a very light breeze IIRC

Mary,
I don't know about the actual winds at the time and I have never flown anywhere in West Java other than as a passenger coming into Jakarta from the north.

However, as a glider pilot, I often looked very closely at the weather. You should bear in mind that Java is very close to the Equator and therefore in the doldrums. It is not likely that strong winds would develop in the Bogor area other than due to outflow from thunderstorms. I have seen stationary thunderstorms develop in one part of Jakarta, drop enough rain to cause one metre floods in the streets and then dissipate while less than a mile away it was sunny and dry!

@jcjeant
 

Sure it is not your intention to trivialise, but applicability to current disaster?

... err.... and wasn't there some sort of bigger city below him? Seattle perhaps? Ah, I see, the lifes of pedestrians do not count in some pilot's worlds.

And for all the followers of the "nothing unsafe about it" fraction - it has gone wrong so many times when done in an airliner / small jet. And not just with noname companies on the tail logo.

Tex Johnson was just as mad (or sane) as these pilots who deceased in the SJ.

Quite a few!

ASN Aircraft accident Boeing 720-030B D-ABOP Ansbach

ITAR TASS informed that found CVR recodring is undamaged and of high quality. All flight was recorded till final second.

Kulverstukas;
Thank you - please keep us informed. I haven't seen any news on the SSDFR data recorder - has it been found or are they still searching?

FDR search continued Saturday
 

Antaranews.com currently has an article up which as translated from Indonesian by Google Translate relates that on Saturday, May 19, search directed at finding the FDR continued conducted by Russian and Indonesian personnel. While the translation may add noise to a possibly imperfect original, there is a troubling reference to a three day time limit for Russian search effort.

Antaranews Saturday FDR search update

News video Sebagian Kotak Hitam Ditemukan - Antara News Video
Any opinions on the first 3 or 4 sec ?... the Sukhoi doing a low bank.
I wonder if they were used to quite aggressive flying for demo purposes ?

Fair enough. I'll perhaps start a thread on the technical section some time in the future.

This is incredible news.
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Weather at Salak
 

Here are a few photos of the weather on Gunung Salak on different occasions.

Salak from Bogor, the City of Rains with the peak and valley leading to the crash site on the right.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...P8251201-1.jpg

Salak peak from the NE slopes


http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...452cloud-1.jpg

A close up showing the weather in the valley that the Sukhoi flew. This view is taken from the NE slopes looking toward the peak and the Eastern ridge of the valley (which the plane crashed in). This is the faint ridge line from which a sheet of cloud is rising.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...alakmark-1.jpg

Similar view but on a clear day

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...P6191061-1.jpg


A view of the same ridge looking South from inside the crash valley itself.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...eyandridge.jpg

Weather on the higher Pangrango – Gede volcanoes on the eastern side of the plain seen from Salak’s slopes.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...rossvalley.jpg



There are three mountains in this area not two as mentioned in the thread.

nice pics - shows the weather and the ridges very well

Pilots sometimes do show off, if I needed proof it was in the 80's I was flying as a passenger out of an Asian country in their very first airbus. I visited the cockpit (as you could in those days) and the pilot was keen to show me how it handled "like a Spifire" (his words) when he switched the autopilot off. Scared me and I was in the cockpit, the poor passengers behind just didn't know what was happening;) nuff said.

What had weather to do with this accident?
 

If the weather was like that on the pictures, it would have been sufficient for VFR flying. Lots of airspace to fly around clouds and hills without the need to crash into something.

Well, we dont know how the weather was, but we can safely assume, that they had been on an IFR flight, otherwise it would not be necessary to request a clearance for lower altitude at first.

As we know, aircraft are equipped and crews should be trained and prepared to operate under IFR in all kind of WX conditions, only few situations like thundersstorms pose some danger enroute. Now the question, what had the weather to do with that accident?

Imho none at all.

Retired F4 :
interesting what you say, but do we know that for a fact ? :
What class of airspace is applicable in this area below 10.000ft? and what are the MSAs for the areas in question ? ( maybe someone has a Jeppesen at hand and could enlight us ?)

Were they on an IFR flight plan all the time , or did they cancel IFR at some point to continue visually ? ( that could explain the Clearance to descend apparently below MSA.)

Did they remain VMC all the time ...or did they enter IMC still under VFR at some point ?

I agree with you that the weather has nothing to do with the crash , but how they decided to fly around it (or not) could be .

MORA - MSA
 

Inside a 25 NM circle south of the airport MSA is set at 6900 ft MSL
Outside that circle the MORA for the sector with Mt. Salak and Mt. Gede is 11900 ft MSL. The taller Mt. Gede is the reference, all the mountains are outside the 25 NM circle
source of information: Mr. Gerry Soejatman report and maps.
stonevalley
Thanks for the pictures they give a good impression of the terrain and also about parts of the weather that can change very rapidly - as was reported -
RetiredF4
I am willing to follow your arguments if the flight rules were changed from IFR to VFR somewhere during the flight, however that is not reported so far to have happened. May be it turns up as soon as the CVR is deciphered.

But as you stated too, untill different facts become known, one has to believe that this was an IFR flight untill it´s very last second. The descend clearance requested sounds more familiar to an en route descend request to position ones flight for an intermediate approach altitude towards an approach to land.
If this proofes correct, there is only the possibility the crew descended into clouds ahead on their intended flight path and never saw Mt. Salak, anticipating that ATC would not clear them below MSA or into a mountain.
Intentionally I leave the terrain warning complex outside. that is a totally different field.
Remains one additional question: Why cleared ATC the flight below MORA and MSA?? Doing so, why not first request the pilot to cancel IFR and if he did advising him to stay VMC and clear of terrain (stay clear of clouds and maintain own separation to the ground - used to be standard phrase as I remember)
If not the pilots, they (ATC) - as locals - should know their airspace and the limits. So evaluating the radar recordings - if any available - and correlating Radar positions against RT-transmissions and CVR may deliver some valuable clues.

@ ATC Watcher

You miss the point i tried to make.

The weather will be like it is, and wether the flight operated under IFR (that´s the most obvious choice until now) or cancelled IFR and proceeded VFR (which the morning flight with the same crew and the same task didn´t do).

There is no obvious sound reason to descend IFR in good or bad weather below MSA / MORA (except for landing obviously) and there is no sound reason to cancel IFR and proceed VFR when weather is unsuitable to do so. Those altitudes MSA / MORA are published for reason, and it´s advisable to know those especially when not familiar with local terrain.

Under IFR it´s a non event to enter IMC and under VFR maintaining clear of clouds is paramount. And that is most true when flying VFR in mountain terrain below the peaks of known mountains.

I know what it´s like running into unexpected bad weather when flying low level 100 feet above ground with 480 KIAS, there is only one safe way, gain altitude as fast as possible and worry about an IFR clearance later.

Here we have an airtransport aircraft on a short demonstration flight taking off under IFR and hitting a scenic mountain in the middle of the flight after they requested an descent below MSA.

Therefore weather did not contribute to that accident in any until now known way i can think of.


Saw your post after i did mine, quick comment on it:

Never assume anything, either to know it or to recheck it is paramount. That´s especially true when opperating outside the known box in another country with other rules and in unknown terrain.

Did I read on a previous post that this was the second demo that day of the Sukhoi 100? with the same flight crew or not? if this was the case, no doubt passengers from the first excursion could give feedback on the conduct of that flight that might be relevant to the investigation.

RetiredF4
 

I fully agree with what you say!!
Hammered in my mind are the words of my first instructor in ATC some 43 years ago:
Never base control on assumptions
and
Better be safe than sorry !!
Standard phrases - as you know from your background as well - but if obeyed, very healthy ones

mm
 

I believe in our Latitudes an interrogation into the wider flight environment in case of a deadly accident is standard. At least that is what I remember from my 4 1/2 years participating in this special field.