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FR4978 ATH-VNO diverted, escorted to Minsk, alleged bomb threat – but was it?

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FR4978 ATH-VNO diverted, escorted to Minsk, alleged bomb threat – but was it?

Old 20th Jul 2022, 07:25
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Originally Posted by WillowRun 6-3 View Post
It further requested the President of the Council to forward the fact-finding investigation report, and the Council’s related decisions thereon, to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres for consideration and any appropriate action.
Any suggestions as to what, if any, that "appropriate action" might be ?
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 13:28
  #302 (permalink)  
 
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It further requested the President of the Council to forward the fact-finding investigation report, and the Council’s related decisions thereon, to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres for consideration and any appropriate action.
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Any suggestions as to what, if any, that "appropriate action" might be ?
You may as well send a bone to a toothless dog and see if he'll chew it. It would be nice to see my lack of confidence in holding Belarus accountable to be incorrect.
The Council Representative for the Russian Federation meanwhile expressed his State’s strong objection to identifying Belarus as the source of the unlawful interference which took place.
He would say that, wouldn't he.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 15:44
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A few ideas about effectiveness.

Sending the report and findings - that is, about violations having occurred - to the UN SecGen could serve a kind of indirect purpose. There isn't any expectation that the UN would take direct action (even if it were not completely consumed by climate change agitation and hysteria). But if the premise is accepted that the actions by Belarus in this incident bear some linkage to the onset and progress of the Ukraine war, then sending the report and findings along is expected to contribute to stabilizing the environment, if not consensus, with regard to sanctions. Especially so, with regard to sanctions pertaining to civil aviation. Indirect, yes, but still in the direction of effectiveness. (Similar logic applies to keeping stable the environment in which Finland and Sweden as NATO allies are before many national legislatures.)

Also, meanwhile back at ICAO - its Council, the Assembly this fall, and its many technical and support programs - the report and findings now are matters of record. Though again the logic is indirect, these actions by Council are likely to be part of the context, or "frame" in today's vernacular, when other issues are before the Organization. Case in point - when further support for information resources about conflict zones was before the Organization at a High-Level Safety Conference in 2015 and specifically in the aftermath of MH17 being shot down, the Russian participant objected to any significant action being taken. With this report and findings on the record, in the next instance of ICAO addressing issues of this variety, the credibility - and hence IMO effectiveness - of such objections and objectors will be substantially reduced.

One of the roles and responsibilities of EUROCONTROL, as I understand it, is civil-military cooperation in the Eurpoean skies, and to provide solid foundations for such cooperation as the SESAR project moves forward. Knowing that this states the obvious, as SLF/attorney I'll say it anyway: the actions by Belarus in this incident were antithetical to such cooperation. Making the report and findings matters of record might be looked back upon, a few years from now, as very useful when the next nefarious conduct incident occurs.

Last edited by WillowRun 6-3; 20th Jul 2022 at 21:28.
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Old 20th Jul 2022, 15:52
  #304 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Any suggestions as to what, if any, that "appropriate action" might be ?
A strongly worded condemantion of Belarus authorities that will be vetoed by the Russian federation for sure and maybe be even by China..So not much.
That said a near global condemnation has its consequences on the aircrfat leasing , insurance and buisness fields. One day Belarus will have to return to the table if they want they economy to work. I do not think Belarus wants to end up like North Korea in a few yaers.


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Old 21st Jul 2022, 06:30
  #305 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WillowRun 6-3 View Post
One of the roles and responsibilities of EUROCONTROL, as I understand it, is civil-military cooperation in the Eurpoean skies, and to provide solid foundations for such cooperation as the SESAR project moves forward. Knowing that this states the obvious, as SLF/attorney I'll say it anyway: the actions by Belarus in this incident were antithetical to such cooperation. Making the report and findings matters of record might be looked back upon, a few years from now, as very useful when the next nefarious conduct incident occurs.
To my knowledge, Belarus is not a member of Eurocontrol, nor it has a Comprehensive Agreement with Eurocontrol.

.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 12:47
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@Bidule

Yes, the country is outside EUROCONTROL (AFAIK). But despite that fact, sending fighter aircraft on pretext of false and maliciously issued "bomb threat" anywhere in European skies is quite antithetical to the pertinent type of cooperation. I don't think a rough equivalent of the Iron Curtain in the skies will be helpful when the Single European Sky and digitization become realities, in operations.
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 13:26
  #307 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by WillowRun 6-3 View Post
One of the roles and responsibilities of EUROCONTROL, as I understand it, is civil-military cooperation in the Eurpoean skies.
No it is not a tpriority as you think, the joint cooperation is mainly there to provide Flexible use of airspace ( FUA) and Free route airspace . Capacity. issues . Military affairs are Soverein issues, outside the scope of the Eurocontrol Convention,
We have nough issues inside Eurocntrol between currents member Staets ( e.g Cyprus- Turkey , or even Spain-UK over Gibraltar etc..) we do not need to be involved with issues of non-members.
As Bidule correctly said, Belarus is not a Eurocontrol member, or even associated .Their ( very competent) Civil aviation Authority really wanted to work closer with Europe , but this incident plus their Governement support for Russia in Ukraine is unfortunately putting them years backwards.

A last point you said :
sending fighter aircraft on pretext of false and maliciously issued "bomb threat" anywhere in European skies is quite antithetical
There was no interception. the media reported one based on a SLF Tweet but there was none . The ICAO report confirms this ( page 35
3.9.2. At 10:15 UTC, when RYR 1TZ was landing, a MIG-29 was recorded 55 km southwest of RYR 1TZ. From the evidence provided by Belarus, no escort or intercept occurred between the MIG-29 and RYR 1TZ and no communications by the MIG-29 was recorded on the radio channels used by RYR 1TZ. According to information provided by the flight crew and cabin crew and, subsequently, the controller, there was no communication, interaction, visual sighting or other knowledge of military aircraft involvement with the flight.
It is one of the major shortomings of PPRuNe : a media report or a post on social media very quickly becomes a fact .
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Old 21st Jul 2022, 14:27
  #308 (permalink)  
 
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I'll stand corrected, then, insofar as the occurrence of an actual intercept is concerned. Nevertheless, that the occurence of such an intercept was regarded as plausible by many if not most knowledgeable observers - because it would have been (if it occurred) consistent with the rest of the Belarus actions - still provides a warrant for the claim here.

As for whether EUROCONTROL's initiatives oriented toward the future of ATM, airspace architecture, projects such as ECHO, are reasons for the organization to be particularly concerned about Belarus actions in this incident, well, I don't speak for EUROCONTROL. Nor do I write on its behalf.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 03:40
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Originally Posted by WillowRun 6-3 View Post
....
The Council expressed appreciation to the ICAO fact finding investigation team for its strenuous efforts and comprehensive analysis and reiterated its condemnation of the communication of false information endangering the safety of an aircraft in flight is an offence under the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the safety of Civil Aviation (Montreal Convention).

The Council also recalled that the use of civil aviation in this manner contravenes the spirit of the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention), in particular its Preamble and Article 4.
.......
It further requested the President of the Council to forward the fact-finding investigation report, and the Council’s related decisions thereon, to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres for consideration and any appropriate action.
Given the current UN structure and regulations, there is (probably) very little that can be done about this incident itself.

The lessons taken are that future regulations need to be setup more from a point of view, that those states with a powerful position currently looking "honest" might turn rogue in the future. Regulations should become more resilient against that. Too many people ignore the fact that sometimes bad actors can come into power and even increase their power position using large scale manipulation, as we've seen in Russia and China in the past 10 years, effectively derailing a prosperous future for all on earth.

Just imagine what would happen, in the fortunately unlikely event, when Trump would become president again in 2025 (or G forbid, would have succeeded with his insurrection attempts, only just 1.5 years ago) ?
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 09:05
  #310 (permalink)  

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Eurocontrol really isn't the FAA. Different scope, mostly overlay of PANS-ATM.

Other agendas may or may not be covered by different EU multinational bodies of varying authority and the individual countries' ethical obligations to ICAO standards.

ECAC perhaps?
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:08
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Belarus president about the incident

I can't post urls, feel free to google it.

...eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-describes-icaos-report-on-ryanair-flight-incident-as-falsification-151954-2022/

Lukashenko describes ICAO's report on Ryanair flight incident as falsification

MINSK, 21 July (BelTA) – The International Civil Aviation Organization's report on the Ryanair Flight 4978 incident is falsified. Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko made the relevant statement in an interview with the news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP), BelTA has learned.



Speaking about the recently released report of the International Civil Aviation Organization, Aleksandr Lukashenko said: “It is falsification.” The Belarusian side has already evaluated this document. “Why was it released today or yesterday? What right does ICAO have to introduce sanctions? What right does France have? What right do you have? The right belongs to the United Nations Organization. But the UN has not even recommended it,” the Belarusian leader stated.

Aleksandr Lukashenko pointed out that European countries introduced sanctions to close air space for Belarus even before any documents or reports were published. “You introduced sanctions against [the Belarusian air carrier] Belavia two years ago without a reason. On the second day on orders from Washington all of you starting with Macron and ending with German Chancellor Merkel started shouting: ‘Belarusians are criminals!' You didn't have facts at your disposal back then.”

Meanwhile a much more serious incident involving an Indonesian aircraft, which was shot down in Ukrainian sky, is still being investigated, Aleksandr Lukashenko noted. “Where is the result? So many people died there,” he noted.

Speaking about Roman Protasevich, who was on board of Ryanair Flight 4978, Aleksandr Lukashenko noted he lives a calm life in Belarus and does not want to go to the West.

This last line is just golden.

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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 16:36
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Originally Posted by DirtyProp View Post
Lukashenko describes ICAO's report on Ryanair flight incident as falsification
He would say that, wouldn't he?
MINSK, 21 July (BelTA) – Aleksandr Lukashenko pointed out that European countries introduced sanctions to close air space for Belarus even before any documents or reports were published. “You introduced sanctions against [the Belarusian air carrier] Belavia two years ago without a reason. On the second day on orders from Washington all of you starting with Macron and ending with German Chancellor Merkel started shouting: ‘Belarusians are criminals!' You didn't have facts at your disposal back then.” Meanwhile a much more serious incident involving an Indonesian aircraft, which was shot down in Ukrainian sky, is still being investigated, Aleksandr Lukashenko noted. “Where is the result? So many people died there,” he noted.
Whataboutery: such a compelling position to take.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 18:33
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Originally Posted by DirtyProp View Post
Meanwhile a much more serious incident involving an Indonesian aircraft, which was shot down in Ukrainian sky, is still being investigated, Aleksandr Lukashenko noted. “Where is the result? So many people died there,” he noted.
Err, Indonesian?
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