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FR4978 ATH-VNO diverted, escorted to Minsk, alleged bomb threat – but was it?

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FR4978 ATH-VNO diverted, escorted to Minsk, alleged bomb threat – but was it?

Old 27th May 2021, 12:45
  #201 (permalink)  
 
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xcris

Don't know about the rest, but Finnish authorities have
A: banned Belavia from operating in Finland. This in practice does affect Belavia as it has had four weekly flights to HEL (source: https://www.traficom.fi/en/news/traf...sation-finland )
B: Recommended Finnish carriers to avoid Belarus airspace and that all the carriers have agreed to comply (source: https://www.traficom.fi/en/news/euro...further-notice )
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Old 27th May 2021, 13:13
  #202 (permalink)  
 
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Latvia: https://www.caa.gov.lv/en/article/la...raffic-belarus
Sweden: https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/sv...sian-airlines/
Estonia apparently making official announcement about it later today.
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Old 27th May 2021, 13:26
  #203 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you very much, everybody!
France and UK as well, right from the source:
Belavia news
25 May 2021 The United Kingdom and France imposed flight bans
https://en.belavia.by/news/4674378/
Finland and Czech Republic have banned flights (updated)
https://en.belavia.by/news/4724337/

Even if on the site is a notification on ban from Ukraine (https://en.belavia.by/news/4674385/) many flight overflown today UKR - maybe the ban was on UKR destinations/origins.

In addition: Due to flight bans from a number of countries, Belavia is forced to cancel flights from 27 May to 30 October 2021 to the following destinations: Warsaw; Milan; Amsterdam; Rome; Frankfurt; Berlin; Munich; Hannover; Vienna; Brussels; Barcelona; Kaliningrad.
https://en.belavia.by/news/4724345/

Last edited by xcris; 27th May 2021 at 13:56.
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Old 27th May 2021, 14:14
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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Russia is putting some pressure in not allowing flight plans that does not overfly Belarus. As first entry point into Russia is located a Belarus-Russia border. (2x Air France flights canceled due to this reason)
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Old 27th May 2021, 14:45
  #205 (permalink)  
 
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Ops Group assessment.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf
belarus-forced-landing-risk.pdf (399.4 KB, 197 views)
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Old 27th May 2021, 14:52
  #206 (permalink)  
 
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Well looks like AF276, CDG-NRT is having a go - it's currently (1350 UTC) northeast bound over Lithuania .

Edit to add: Looks to have entered Russian airspace Ok, there is an AF cargo and also KLM flight not far behind, so if there was a problem this AM it looks like it has been resolved.

Last edited by wiggy; 27th May 2021 at 15:22.
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Old 27th May 2021, 15:24
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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Something interesting is going on, as earlier in the day there was a RAF Rivet Joint cruising in Poland/Lithuania area, and now there are a couple of Beech Guardrails minding their business, circling in Lithuania.
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Old 27th May 2021, 15:33
  #208 (permalink)  
 
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Russia seems to have denied entry to AF and OS flights to Moscow that had rerouted to stay outside Belarus before.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ss-2021-05-26/
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Old 27th May 2021, 16:21
  #209 (permalink)  
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Russia denies Austrian landing permit if the flight does not route over Belarus

Shocking development -

https://www.dw.com/en/breaking-russi...rts/a-57690737
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Old 27th May 2021, 16:31
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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Less Hair

Interesting...looking like "ops normal" over that part of the world now - the usual stream of PM eastbounds to Japan from Europe (e.g. KLM/BA/AF)
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Old 27th May 2021, 16:46
  #211 (permalink)  
 
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wiggy

are you sure? I don’t think your reality matches what the radar says.
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Old 27th May 2021, 17:06
  #212 (permalink)  
 
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Beamr

That is normal business since many month
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Old 27th May 2021, 17:08
  #213 (permalink)  
 
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Dan Dare

I'm obviously being a bit dull, maybe a result of too many beers in the truck over the years because you're going to have to spell it out what you think I'm missing.

At the moment it looks like the Longhaul eastbounds from western Europe to Japan this PM have pretty much taken one of the standard routes - that is north east over the Baltic States and then into St Peterburgh FIR and onwards..

Sure, there may be fewer flights, possibly due Covid, but other than that?

​​​​​​(Just for clarity/ save us being at cross purposes over this, I raised the point earlier because there was a comment upthread about flight plans into Russian Airspace not being accepted if they didn't route via the Belorussian FIR).

Last edited by wiggy; 27th May 2021 at 17:25.
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Old 27th May 2021, 18:19
  #214 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aterpster View Post
Ops Group assessment.
Sitting neatly on the fence
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Old 27th May 2021, 20:25
  #215 (permalink)  
 
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It ‘may’ be purely coincidence but three representatives of Vlad’s finest have arrived in Minsk today
1627 RA-96017 IL-96 srs 300 Rossiya
1827 RA-64522 TU-214SUS Rossiya
1855 RA-64057 TU-204-300 Rossiya

All from Moscow Vnukovo !!
Comments, observations and or speculation welcome
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Old 27th May 2021, 20:58
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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Wall Street Journal (website) now reporting further statements by Group of 7 and EU, as well as ICAO Council:

"On Thursday, foreign ministers of the Group of Seven industrialized nations and the EU’s foreign policy chief called the diversion 'a serious attack on the rules governing civil aviation' and called on the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization to investigate the incident. The ICAO later said it would do so, and ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said the event 'posed apparent and serious threats to the legal framework' governing commercial aviation."

The same article reported on a "private" letter from MOL to Belarus CAA, protesting Belarus actions and disputing its version(s) of the events and communications.

( While supporting, generally, an action by ICAO "to investigate the incident", this SLF/atty questions what process, and by or under what specific authorities, ICAO investigatory action would be conducted. Thus far, no announcement or statement about this by ICAO has been located.)
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Old 27th May 2021, 21:05
  #217 (permalink)  
 
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Reuters reporting on ICAO Council meeting today (27 May):

U.N. aviation body discusses call to probe Belarus airliner grounding | Reuters

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Old 27th May 2021, 22:24
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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Regardless of the lack of a definitive detailed account of what actually happened, I can't help thinking that this was a clumsy, ill thought through solo run by Belarus.

I'd expect Putin is furious about this incident, it threatens his strategy regarding allied states buffering his borders and indirectly drags him into an international s**t storm.

I'm glad this mess is not in my in tray.
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Old 28th May 2021, 02:27
  #219 (permalink)  
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Okay, thanks wiggy. I stand corrected.
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Old 28th May 2021, 02:43
  #220 (permalink)  
 
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ICAO Press release 27 May 2021

ICAO Council to pursue fact finding investigation into Ryanair FR4978

Montréal, 27 May 2021
The ICAO Council expressed its strong concern today at the apparent forced diversion of Ryanair Flight FR4978, a commercial passenger aircraft flying in Belarus airspace on Sunday, 23 May 2021.

At a special meeting convened, the ICAO Governing Body underlined the importance of establishing the facts of what happened, and of understanding whether there had been any breach by any ICAO Member State of international aviation law, including the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention) and its Annexes.

Recalling Article 55 (e) of the Chicago Convention, the Council decided to undertake a fact-finding investigation of this event, and in this connection requested the ICAO Secretariat to prepare an interim report to the Council for a subsequent meeting of the current session, presenting the available facts and relevant legal instruments.

The Council also called upon all ICAO Member States and other relevant stakeholders to collaborate with this fact-finding investigation in the interests of ensuring the safety and security of civil aviation, and offered the assistance and expertise of ICAO in the pursuit of this endeavor.

"The Council has therefore decided that all relevant facts should be officially established through an ICAO investigation conducted by the ICAO Secretariat," emphasized ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano.

ICAO Secretary General Dr. Fang Liu responded to the Council's decision during the meeting and assured the full support and cooperation of the Secretariat in implementing this decision.
Link:
ICAO Council to pursue fact finding investigation into Ryanair FR4978
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