Last A380 Leaves Assembly Hall
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Less Hair asked:
"I wonder how market predictions could be so off the mark like this time? Travel grew as expected but finally midsized twins harvest the market."
Sean Doyle said, emulating Tim Clark:
“The A380 isn’t flying at the minute but it is in our plans for the future rebuild of the airline,”
I ask:
How many times will such megalomaniac dudes at the helm repeat the same mistakes? It was written on the wall (and commented so by many) in 1990 and it will remain so even if the industry experiences a sound rebound after Covid. You simply can't beat physics in conjunction with economics.
"I wonder how market predictions could be so off the mark like this time? Travel grew as expected but finally midsized twins harvest the market."
Sean Doyle said, emulating Tim Clark:
“The A380 isn’t flying at the minute but it is in our plans for the future rebuild of the airline,”
I ask:
How many times will such megalomaniac dudes at the helm repeat the same mistakes? It was written on the wall (and commented so by many) in 1990 and it will remain so even if the industry experiences a sound rebound after Covid. You simply can't beat physics in conjunction with economics.
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Should a covid-19 miracle cure appear then perhaps the A380 may live for a few more years yet.
In our microcosm called Australia where unrestricted international travel has now been banned for over a year, Australians have taken to travelling in their own backyards. This has sent prices for used cars, new cars, car-hire, accomodation, entry-tickets, etc, etc through the roof because of the sudden huge surge in demand. When the ban on international travel is lifted I would imagine a similar surge in demand would occur in air travel for a couple of holiday seasons at least.
In our microcosm called Australia where unrestricted international travel has now been banned for over a year, Australians have taken to travelling in their own backyards. This has sent prices for used cars, new cars, car-hire, accomodation, entry-tickets, etc, etc through the roof because of the sudden huge surge in demand. When the ban on international travel is lifted I would imagine a similar surge in demand would occur in air travel for a couple of holiday seasons at least.
Of course, they won't see any profits from airframes they didn't sell
Boeing's "Program Accounting" method defers the start-up costs of an aircraft building project and then pays these deferred costs down over an 'Accounting block' of aircraft. If the Accounting block is not reached, the manufacturer has to write off any development costs not yet amortised. For example, in the case of the B747-8, Boeing has so far had to write off $US1.383 Billion ($569 million post-tax in 2015 and in 2016 another after tax charge of $814 million), there may be other charges in 2021 & 2023 as production comes to an end
Just finished reading the Haynes Workshop Manual on the A-380. It's only about 4 years old but surprising upbeat about how the world will beat a path to Toulouse's door as soon as the recession upturns.
Thread Starter
Well as far as the local press are concerned the last "bird" has flown so they'd better be quick in beating a path to the door up the road from me.
I'm pretty sure from what I've heard (but can't find a source) that the construction hall has already been repurposed, or at least was in the process of being so when aviation pretty much ground to a halt..I'm not sure the jigs have been tossed into the Garonne yet
Toulouse local newspaper link:.."..............The departure signals the end of the superjumbo industrial adventure"
https://www.ladepeche.fr/2021/03/17/...se-9433584.php
I'm pretty sure from what I've heard (but can't find a source) that the construction hall has already been repurposed, or at least was in the process of being so when aviation pretty much ground to a halt..I'm not sure the jigs have been tossed into the Garonne yet
Toulouse local newspaper link:.."..............The departure signals the end of the superjumbo industrial adventure"
https://www.ladepeche.fr/2021/03/17/...se-9433584.php
The lead time for many of the parts is over two years. So it's not just the final assembly hall - it's the entire supply chain, much of which has already been repurposed.
It would cost billions to start it up again, and by Airbus's own admission, the A380 program was only cash flow positive for only a few years (the production rate the rest of the time was too low to be profitable).
Boeing is biting the bullet on the 747 - while it still has a viable freighter market (unlike the A380), the production rate is too low to be profitable. When the fuselage vendor announced they were going to close the facility where the panels were made, Boeing had the choice to make the investment to take the tooling and restart fuselage production elsewhere, but determined that in wasn't a wise use of money and resources.
Face it - A380 production is dead and buried, soon to be followed by the 747-8.
It would cost billions to start it up again, and by Airbus's own admission, the A380 program was only cash flow positive for only a few years (the production rate the rest of the time was too low to be profitable).
Boeing is biting the bullet on the 747 - while it still has a viable freighter market (unlike the A380), the production rate is too low to be profitable. When the fuselage vendor announced they were going to close the facility where the panels were made, Boeing had the choice to make the investment to take the tooling and restart fuselage production elsewhere, but determined that in wasn't a wise use of money and resources.
Face it - A380 production is dead and buried, soon to be followed by the 747-8.
If it ain't a 380, I would rather not go!
As others have said, there's no comparison with the A380 on long-haul.
I am in Sydney, so most of my trips are across the ditch to Auckland, across the puddle to LAX, or across the ITCZ to China. And I have to pay my own way, which means I can only afford cattle-class.
So yes, I search the schedule, looking to maximise the amount of the journey I spend in an A380. Yes, I pay a bit more for the ticket, but I arrive less zombified. SYD to LAX in a 380 is three movies and a nice snooze. In the 777 buzz-box it is an endurance test! The 747 is cramped, noisy and uncomfortable in comparison, and the A330 just has to be endured. DFW to SYD allows an extra movie and a longer snooze: but it's a gruelling chore in a 747 (even if you don't have to stop for extra fuel).
My introduction to the A380 was AKL to SYD. My partner asked when they were going to start the engines: I pressed my ear against the window to confirm, then announced "they already have!" I learned two things on that trip: the other was "don't get stuck in a window seat with a bladder like mine!"
Suspended in a cigar-tube above the Pacific, one has 11 or 12 hours to be grateful that in the case of engine failure, the crew has a spare. In a 777, I diligently renew my acquaintance with the power of prayer!
At my age, chances are I will be dead before that last A380 is scrapped: I will be searching the flight schedules for her!
I am in Sydney, so most of my trips are across the ditch to Auckland, across the puddle to LAX, or across the ITCZ to China. And I have to pay my own way, which means I can only afford cattle-class.
So yes, I search the schedule, looking to maximise the amount of the journey I spend in an A380. Yes, I pay a bit more for the ticket, but I arrive less zombified. SYD to LAX in a 380 is three movies and a nice snooze. In the 777 buzz-box it is an endurance test! The 747 is cramped, noisy and uncomfortable in comparison, and the A330 just has to be endured. DFW to SYD allows an extra movie and a longer snooze: but it's a gruelling chore in a 747 (even if you don't have to stop for extra fuel).
My introduction to the A380 was AKL to SYD. My partner asked when they were going to start the engines: I pressed my ear against the window to confirm, then announced "they already have!" I learned two things on that trip: the other was "don't get stuck in a window seat with a bladder like mine!"
Suspended in a cigar-tube above the Pacific, one has 11 or 12 hours to be grateful that in the case of engine failure, the crew has a spare. In a 777, I diligently renew my acquaintance with the power of prayer!
At my age, chances are I will be dead before that last A380 is scrapped: I will be searching the flight schedules for her!
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If only, if only the fairies would drop whatever the customer likes on his plate, cost be damned. Think of those slices of foie gras that would come with your McDonalds happy meal!
Here in the real world, an airplane that carries 15% more people but costs 30% more to keep flying makes for a very, very short-lived business plan.
The costs of Gallic hubris have not been so well-demonstrated since May 1940.
Here in the real world, an airplane that carries 15% more people but costs 30% more to keep flying makes for a very, very short-lived business plan.
The costs of Gallic hubris have not been so well-demonstrated since May 1940.
Gallic hubris?
There is a bit of brit and german and even US capital involved as well isn't it?
There is a bit of brit and german and even US capital involved as well isn't it?
Thread Starter
tdracer
Our local local town's main factory, situated about 70 km from Toulouse, produces some large metal components for the aviation industry. One such line of work it had was producing parts of the 380 landing gear...they announced that particular line of work had stopped, funnily enough, about two or three years back.
Our local local town's main factory, situated about 70 km from Toulouse, produces some large metal components for the aviation industry. One such line of work it had was producing parts of the 380 landing gear...they announced that particular line of work had stopped, funnily enough, about two or three years back.
Same goes for the 747. Suppliers finish long before the final delivery. Now with so many A380s stored and available for disassembly and the fleet underused even less spare parts will be needed.
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Dropp the Pilot
Actually the cost per seat kilometer of an A380 is practically identical to a 787 or 777 at a similar seating configuration. The problem is consistantly filling it with enough yield, especially now with all the restrictions. Another issue is that a 777 and 787 can carry more cargo under the floor.
Actually the cost per seat kilometer of an A380 is practically identical to a 787 or 777 at a similar seating configuration. The problem is consistantly filling it with enough yield, especially now with all the restrictions. Another issue is that a 777 and 787 can carry more cargo under the floor.
procede
"Actually the cost per seat kilometer of an A380 is practically identical to a 787 or 777 at a similar seating configuration."
Yes, if the A380's SMCs really were 13% higher than the 777's, as suggested, then the only rationale for operating it anywhere would be slot constraints. That's clearly not the case.
"Actually the cost per seat kilometer of an A380 is practically identical to a 787 or 777 at a similar seating configuration."
Yes, if the A380's SMCs really were 13% higher than the 777's, as suggested, then the only rationale for operating it anywhere would be slot constraints. That's clearly not the case.
Has anybody ever shared those actual numbers for comparison? It's two versus four engines to begin with. And denser cabin configurations on the twins mentioned.
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Groundhog Day Alert!
No one buys this aircraft no more, no one builds this aircraft no more and almost no one operates the remaining bodies no more, only the one operator who is "stuck with them" by quote of its CEO.
Maybe, just maybe there is a real world reason for all that.
No one buys this aircraft no more, no one builds this aircraft no more and almost no one operates the remaining bodies no more, only the one operator who is "stuck with them" by quote of its CEO.
Maybe, just maybe there is a real world reason for all that.
Yes the facts are obvious but do you have the actual figures behind them?
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For such a massive plane to only have the same CASM as a much much smaller 787 shows how bad the A380 is. Other than for slot constrained airports any CEO would take the 787 over the A380. The risk of not filling the A380 seats leads to reduced yield, thus lower RASM and lower profitability.
It really was a white elephant and the fact most airlines have dumped them prove it.
It really was a white elephant and the fact most airlines have dumped them prove it.
Last edited by Chief Willy; 4th Apr 2021 at 20:40.