Risk of contracting virus on airplanes - perspective
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So, as I understand it, because I choose not to take the risk of using mass transportation including flying, I'm suffering from PTSD! Well no I'm not. I'm in the "at risk" category and, whilst a great deal is still not yet known about this virus and how to eradicate it, I shall continue to avoid using any form of public transport. No paranoia or PTSD, just sensible precautions.
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PTSD? Seriously?
Those who need to fly will still be travelling. That's not many. The reality is that flying is a discretionary pursuit for the majority. And that's the underlying truth of the whole business. Many of those who don't simply don't want to take the risk of infection or imposed bureacacy (domestic or international) or other uncertainty will simply choose not to travel because they don't have to.
While we see offices running at low % occupancy and other forms of public transport running empty then people will hardly be buzzing to get into the air.
The risk for the industry is two fold - firstly that it takes a long time before people *want* to fly and secondly that the number who *want* to fly is significantly less after the hiatus (whether that be because of restrictions due to ongoing effects of the disease or reduced economic circumstances). If pasenger vilume doesn't recover and fares increase due to lack of volume thebn that may have a further knock on regarding how often people who want to fly can afford to fly.
Positives? Well we still have airlines - despite the massive pain the businesse and their staff are taking - they seem intent on surviving in some form. We are now well into the fifth month of this disaster and the big names still haven't capitulated to the economic storm.
Those who need to fly will still be travelling. That's not many. The reality is that flying is a discretionary pursuit for the majority. And that's the underlying truth of the whole business. Many of those who don't simply don't want to take the risk of infection or imposed bureacacy (domestic or international) or other uncertainty will simply choose not to travel because they don't have to.
While we see offices running at low % occupancy and other forms of public transport running empty then people will hardly be buzzing to get into the air.
The risk for the industry is two fold - firstly that it takes a long time before people *want* to fly and secondly that the number who *want* to fly is significantly less after the hiatus (whether that be because of restrictions due to ongoing effects of the disease or reduced economic circumstances). If pasenger vilume doesn't recover and fares increase due to lack of volume thebn that may have a further knock on regarding how often people who want to fly can afford to fly.
Positives? Well we still have airlines - despite the massive pain the businesse and their staff are taking - they seem intent on surviving in some form. We are now well into the fifth month of this disaster and the big names still haven't capitulated to the economic storm.
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This thread started with an amount of Former Chief Spirit citing a Business School study claiming that flying was relatively safe, even with the middle seat occupied. Of course, everyone was wearing masks, etc.
Alright, now assume we are just talking about aerosols. An effective dose will follow a formula like time(minutes) = (distance from source/n)^3
Where n is the distance at which someone would inhale an effective dose in one minute.
Doubling the distance to an emitter will increase eight-fold the time needed (this is your cube-root problem).
Now, in a pandemic with documented cases of transmission on airplanes, and with a clear public health interest that would facilitate data collection, why are the players in the industry citing hypothetical studies rather than investigating actual cases of transmission, explaining their mechanism, and the countermeasures they have put into place?
Why should we trust a model when we've got plenty of empirical data that seems to say otherwise, but which the modelers completely ignore?
Finally, here's the bad news: the point of business travel is to exploit the value of personal meetings: face-to-face discussions, informal discussions over meals, meeting team members. If, for health reasons, the flight requires masks, restricts meals to a minimum, and discourages unnecessary interaction, then the destination will as well. Then there's no business case for most business travel.
Alright, now assume we are just talking about aerosols. An effective dose will follow a formula like time(minutes) = (distance from source/n)^3
Where n is the distance at which someone would inhale an effective dose in one minute.
Doubling the distance to an emitter will increase eight-fold the time needed (this is your cube-root problem).
Now, in a pandemic with documented cases of transmission on airplanes, and with a clear public health interest that would facilitate data collection, why are the players in the industry citing hypothetical studies rather than investigating actual cases of transmission, explaining their mechanism, and the countermeasures they have put into place?
Why should we trust a model when we've got plenty of empirical data that seems to say otherwise, but which the modelers completely ignore?
Finally, here's the bad news: the point of business travel is to exploit the value of personal meetings: face-to-face discussions, informal discussions over meals, meeting team members. If, for health reasons, the flight requires masks, restricts meals to a minimum, and discourages unnecessary interaction, then the destination will as well. Then there's no business case for most business travel.
I think those still trying to hold down a job in aviation are stressed....not surprising, however blaming the general public's lack of interest in flying on PTSD or "hiding behind the sofa" is lazy thinking and shows a lack of awareness.
There are lots of people who are keen to fly right now but having seen what went on in the spring they are aware of the risks of being caught up in a fast changing lockdown situation whilst overseas, and/or have real difficulties with travel insurance...all practical stuff, not imagined.
We have a family friend working overseas who would love to get home briefly but he dare not, because he won't be able to return to his job overseas if he does so because of the host nation's current rules on re-entry to that country by non-nationals...nothing imagined by that.
It's going to be tough for aviation to recover..screaming at the public that are being misled or are the victims of hysteria isn't going to help.
There are lots of people who are keen to fly right now but having seen what went on in the spring they are aware of the risks of being caught up in a fast changing lockdown situation whilst overseas, and/or have real difficulties with travel insurance...all practical stuff, not imagined.
We have a family friend working overseas who would love to get home briefly but he dare not, because he won't be able to return to his job overseas if he does so because of the host nation's current rules on re-entry to that country by non-nationals...nothing imagined by that.
It's going to be tough for aviation to recover..screaming at the public that are being misled or are the victims of hysteria isn't going to help.
Very unscientific snap shot but I have operated a number of "leisure" destination short hauls out of LHR recently and they have all been completely full, the same story from other colleagues. It may be a short lived boost because people are desperate to get away but there seems to be no shortage of takers at the moment.
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I don't know how far your observations over the demographics of the travelling public go, but what I am seeing is that those travelling now are mostly people in their 20s, 30s, early 40s. First, they feel a lot less intimidated by the virus. Whether that's because statistically most of those who got seriously ill and died are in higher age groups, because young people are generally more willing to take risk and shake off stress quite quickly or because of a combination of both - well, most probably the last one. Second, those who have spent most of their conscious lives after the low-cost revolution treat leisure travel as an essential and integral part of their daily lives. Probably as integral and natural as going to the gym or grabbing a snack in a cafe. They are so used to this way of living that they cannot imagine otherwise.
Aside from this, society is coming out of the phase of acute stress and avoidance of anything and everything other than staying at home. In my area, in the first week or two after restrictions on visiting parks were lifted, you could see people wearing rubber gloves and face shields over their masks in the park. Now you can't see any of that. That's just one example of how people are recovering from the trauma and looking to resume all their normal activities - albeit with some reasonable safety precautions.
Something to think about when it comes to high-value travellers is that, with the right marketing, a business jet charter company can actually benefit a lot from this situation. It's not just that a business jet often offers by-the-book social distancing. It's also the avoidance of crowds and queues and the generally lesser flow of people through GA terminals, as opposed to scheduled flight terminals. Hence, no wonder that pretty much everyone I know in the corporate charter world are having quite a busy time now. And not with business trips only. Well-off families seem to be coming to the conclusion that sharing a private flight for their vacation in Cannes with their friends is a long way more comfortable, prestigious and fun than any airline flight. So, the premium segment is still there as well - only that it might look different from what we've seen so far for some time.
Aside from this, society is coming out of the phase of acute stress and avoidance of anything and everything other than staying at home. In my area, in the first week or two after restrictions on visiting parks were lifted, you could see people wearing rubber gloves and face shields over their masks in the park. Now you can't see any of that. That's just one example of how people are recovering from the trauma and looking to resume all their normal activities - albeit with some reasonable safety precautions.
Something to think about when it comes to high-value travellers is that, with the right marketing, a business jet charter company can actually benefit a lot from this situation. It's not just that a business jet often offers by-the-book social distancing. It's also the avoidance of crowds and queues and the generally lesser flow of people through GA terminals, as opposed to scheduled flight terminals. Hence, no wonder that pretty much everyone I know in the corporate charter world are having quite a busy time now. And not with business trips only. Well-off families seem to be coming to the conclusion that sharing a private flight for their vacation in Cannes with their friends is a long way more comfortable, prestigious and fun than any airline flight. So, the premium segment is still there as well - only that it might look different from what we've seen so far for some time.
Max Angle
I think the way it's working ATM ( from discussion with friends and extended family in the UK) is that people are still concerned with the risk of their plans being stuffed at the last minute by a local sudden lockdown and/or wider scale control.
Some are getting round this by driving to/from -destination instead of flying gives flexibility and an option to get out of Dodge should it suddenly go wrong...
Some I know are happy to fly short haul, but will book last minute and perhaps might not take an extended break.
What has been clobbered however is any thought at all of booking Long Haul holidays TFN...Danger of being too far out on a limb should things hot up again - they saw how hard it was for people to get home from some parts of the world this Spring. There's also the issue of insurance, especially health coverage, once you get outside of EHIC land.
That sort of thinking is probably a big worry fro those airlines with a significant exposure to the Long Haul market.
I think the way it's working ATM ( from discussion with friends and extended family in the UK) is that people are still concerned with the risk of their plans being stuffed at the last minute by a local sudden lockdown and/or wider scale control.
Some are getting round this by driving to/from -destination instead of flying gives flexibility and an option to get out of Dodge should it suddenly go wrong...
Some I know are happy to fly short haul, but will book last minute and perhaps might not take an extended break.
What has been clobbered however is any thought at all of booking Long Haul holidays TFN...Danger of being too far out on a limb should things hot up again - they saw how hard it was for people to get home from some parts of the world this Spring. There's also the issue of insurance, especially health coverage, once you get outside of EHIC land.
That sort of thinking is probably a big worry fro those airlines with a significant exposure to the Long Haul market.
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I agree with you that concern about a possible deterioration in the destination is one considerable deterrent - and airlines and travel agencies need to come up with mitigation measures to increase traveller confidence. Lufthansa with their repatriation guarantee is a very good example for others to look into. Basically, they have issued a customer promise that a return booking with them guarantees your return to Germany, should things in your destination go south while you are there.
and airlines and travel agencies need to come up with mitigation measures to increase traveller confidence.
I operated into a couple of Asian destinations from Europe end Feb/March and with the best will in the world there was no spare capacity to get everybody out who wanted to come back to Europe early/off schedule...
There was then another complication on one flight when the destination imposed very stringent arrival/departure restrictions almost overnight. Local politicians got involved and they considered denying inbound clearance to one of our flights that was actually en-route.....When that sort of nonsense goes on at a political level there's only so much an airline can do in the way of guarantees and mitigation.
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What's left is hope that the panic from March will not reappear. A lot of what was done back then was far from rational and created many problems further down the line.
On the matter of virus transmission, some measures are a pain in the back, but I think that I've started to discover the silver lining of it. Having the front lavatory of the A320 blocked off for the passengers is an absolute blessing. No more queues, no more diapers on the floor and toilet paper in the sink. I wonder if all companies have adopted this protocol?
On the matter of virus transmission, some measures are a pain in the back, but I think that I've started to discover the silver lining of it. Having the front lavatory of the A320 blocked off for the passengers is an absolute blessing. No more queues, no more diapers on the floor and toilet paper in the sink. I wonder if all companies have adopted this protocol?
Blocking the number of lavatories for use by the passengers, will certainly not attract more passengers. We need more of them (passengers).
An app or otherwise to request a WC for use, then wait till you are called would be a better plan - get a notice from CC on app to move when WC and isle is clear and clean. (no ques and sanitised).
While at it aircraft - some sheer type curtains between row groups, could help air flow to be extracted to the floor vents.
Order food/drink via app - self remove from trolley when arrives.
No carry on luggage.
Back to front loading.
Remove First, Business and Club boarding as desired privileges.
Terminals - Travelling passengers only (airport staff assistance for kids/disabled - other)
Laptops/tablets checked luggage only (yes has issues to address)
Security checks prior to terminal/check in/baggage drop entry.
App to say your bag/s is ready for collection, proceed to collection point.
An app or otherwise to request a WC for use, then wait till you are called would be a better plan - get a notice from CC on app to move when WC and isle is clear and clean. (no ques and sanitised).
While at it aircraft - some sheer type curtains between row groups, could help air flow to be extracted to the floor vents.
Order food/drink via app - self remove from trolley when arrives.
No carry on luggage.
Back to front loading.
Remove First, Business and Club boarding as desired privileges.
Terminals - Travelling passengers only (airport staff assistance for kids/disabled - other)
Laptops/tablets checked luggage only (yes has issues to address)
Security checks prior to terminal/check in/baggage drop entry.
App to say your bag/s is ready for collection, proceed to collection point.
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Certainly, where I am, the stats say 26-35 year olds (more likely to be men) are travelling, followed by 36-45 year olds. Virtually no one older than 45 years old is travelling and there are relatively few families. My own observations skew a little older than that, but maybe I am just bad at guessing people's age!
Another interesting bit of briefing was that 70% of customers who protested or had to be challenged about wearing a mask have been women. A lot of guessing why, but is smudged make-up that bigger problem?
Another interesting bit of briefing was that 70% of customers who protested or had to be challenged about wearing a mask have been women. A lot of guessing why, but is smudged make-up that bigger problem?
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an.other
I am not sure where your starts are from but I have flown too and from Germany through out this, with some admittedly strange routes, and long journey times. However my flights, with the exception of the flight crew, have been with people in the age range 35+, but this admittedly has been on business routes, and my long haul is in Business class of which I have only done one. I will have another on Sunday night, and will take further note on the demographic in my cabin and report back. Not sure on the make up, but all female CC ware it and it does not look so smudged to me, though I am 59
I am not sure where your starts are from but I have flown too and from Germany through out this, with some admittedly strange routes, and long journey times. However my flights, with the exception of the flight crew, have been with people in the age range 35+, but this admittedly has been on business routes, and my long haul is in Business class of which I have only done one. I will have another on Sunday night, and will take further note on the demographic in my cabin and report back. Not sure on the make up, but all female CC ware it and it does not look so smudged to me, though I am 59
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NoelEvans
ROFL, muppetry of the highest order . . . good luck, you will need it, flying is a risk many people will choose to no longer take . . . lets see how that pans out for you . . . how is the aviation industry working out at the moment ? . . . hmmm ? . . .
ROFL, muppetry of the highest order . . . good luck, you will need it, flying is a risk many people will choose to no longer take . . . lets see how that pans out for you . . . how is the aviation industry working out at the moment ? . . . hmmm ? . . .
Last edited by fergusd; 22nd Jul 2020 at 23:27.
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Thank you for your kind words!
For me, things are going well. But I am concerned about many friends and ex-colleagues elsewhere. Although tonight I heard the most traffic on the radio that I had heard for months. From a good mix of passenger airlines. Almost felt like normal again. And when I say good luck to all those involved, I genuinely mean it.
For me, things are going well. But I am concerned about many friends and ex-colleagues elsewhere. Although tonight I heard the most traffic on the radio that I had heard for months. From a good mix of passenger airlines. Almost felt like normal again. And when I say good luck to all those involved, I genuinely mean it.
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fergusd
Very interesting how people seem to find joy in other people's problems. I know that lockdown was frustrating and hard to deal with, but aren't there better ways of coping than calling a muppet someone who might have been affected even worse than you by the situation?
Very interesting how people seem to find joy in other people's problems. I know that lockdown was frustrating and hard to deal with, but aren't there better ways of coping than calling a muppet someone who might have been affected even worse than you by the situation?
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I've flown (as pax) three sectors in one month - the mix has been nothing out of the ordinary. Biz pax the same in biz class - and a European loco to Southern Spain from AMS - old and the young, packed in like sardines we were, I hasten to add!
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wiggy, if you look at it I am not 'blaming' anyone, I am recognising a situation. We know a lot of people in everyday life who have been really 'shook up' by all of this. Just going to the shops is a struggle for them. PilotLZ has been quite right to call this PTSD as it has been very, very, very unsettling for a lot of people. But there are a lot of people who want to fly and they shouldn't be put off by emotional scare stories. Going to the shops, going to restaurants, flying, all those things should be shown to be as normal and as safe as they really are. What is known about this 'thing' is hugely more now than it was in March. The extent of it in the population and its locations are all hugely more known now than in March (the UK, with nearly 13.8 million test, is the leading country in the world with a population over 10 million in testing, which is hugely better than in March). A huge amount more is know about treatments that was in March. Precautions taken now are hugely more than in March. I am not blaming anyone, as so little was known about it in March.
The problem was that the population was scared, as they never have been before, very often by unhelpful media sensationalist reporting where good news was ignored in favour of the sensational. We have been really, really surprised at the huge number of people that we have encountered from all walks of life who have just shut off from the media. I don't blame them. I did too for quite some time and life became more 'local' and pleasant (we have supported our local newspaper throughout). The problem now is that trying to get good news through to people who have cut off from news won't be easy. A lot of people have been locked away from the world and haven't seen how bad it got out there (and in many cases, probably a good thing for them that they didn't see it!) but their minds have been 'whirring'. People need to be encouraged back into 'the world' with good news.
I will repeat what I said at "silly o' clock" this morning: "...tonight I heard the most traffic on the radio that I had heard for months. From a good mix of passenger airlines. Almost felt like normal again." And add to that LGW Vulture's comments. Time for some more positive thinking: the glass is half full, let's work on encouraging people to fill it up more!
The problem was that the population was scared, as they never have been before, very often by unhelpful media sensationalist reporting where good news was ignored in favour of the sensational. We have been really, really surprised at the huge number of people that we have encountered from all walks of life who have just shut off from the media. I don't blame them. I did too for quite some time and life became more 'local' and pleasant (we have supported our local newspaper throughout). The problem now is that trying to get good news through to people who have cut off from news won't be easy. A lot of people have been locked away from the world and haven't seen how bad it got out there (and in many cases, probably a good thing for them that they didn't see it!) but their minds have been 'whirring'. People need to be encouraged back into 'the world' with good news.
I will repeat what I said at "silly o' clock" this morning: "...tonight I heard the most traffic on the radio that I had heard for months. From a good mix of passenger airlines. Almost felt like normal again." And add to that LGW Vulture's comments. Time for some more positive thinking: the glass is half full, let's work on encouraging people to fill it up more!
You do know what the T in PTSD stands for ?
I wouldn't dispute for a moment that contracting COVID-19, or losing a loved one or friend to the pandemic, is indeed traumatic. But only a very small percentage of people who are currently declining to fly are in that situation.
The overwhelming majority of the passengers who are, for the time being, turning their backs on the industry are simply exhibiting PTS - Prudent Traveller Syndrome.
Labelling them as trauma sufferers is both lazy and unhelpful.
I wouldn't dispute for a moment that contracting COVID-19, or losing a loved one or friend to the pandemic, is indeed traumatic. But only a very small percentage of people who are currently declining to fly are in that situation.
The overwhelming majority of the passengers who are, for the time being, turning their backs on the industry are simply exhibiting PTS - Prudent Traveller Syndrome.
Labelling them as trauma sufferers is both lazy and unhelpful.