Pilot lives....yes they matter

[Pistonprop]

I am a retired aviation professional and (in my retirement) had been flying purely for leisure an average of 30-50 sectors per year. So far this year my total is zero. As much as I want to travel again I do not see myself boarding an aircraft for a good while yet. Only a proven efficient vaccine will give me peace of mind, and that is a long way off or may possibly never happen! It truly hurts me to see all who are involved in the industry suffering the economic consequences of this virus, but I just cannot take the risk. I'm sure that I speak for hundreds of thousands that think more or less along the same lines right now. So yes, full recovery of the industry will, painfully, take a long time.

[jetjockeyjoe]

PLM. Pilot Lives Matter.

Hello to everyone.
As a newbie fATPL holder, I always hear stories from our big brothers how the 9/11 era went worse. Nevertheless, I claim that this COVID era is already doubled 9/11 era surely. Because the aviation itself, flight schools and airlines are having an enhanced infrastructure and capacity.
Before this coronavirus, roughly I would say that there was unemployed 8000 new fATPL holders (Low hour commercial pilot with ATPL theory and IFR on multi rating) plus 1000 experienced pilots in all world (FAA+EASA+ICAO). now the final amount of all pilots who they are unemployed is about 24.000 according to my estimation which I collected all information from websites during these last 3 months. This number can be wrong but I would be so happy if someone could give a more accurate number.

Consequently, this is obvious that airline assessments will be the hardest in all time as it was never in before. Finding a job will be extremely hard for all of us who they are a newbie.
Even to find bread will be challenge for us. Finally, I can only say one thing: Pilot Lives Matter....

[wiggy]

Originally Posted by jetjockeyjoe

As a newbie fATPL holder, I always hear stories from our big brothers how the 9/11 era went worse.

I'm not sure who these "big brothers" are but if they are claiming the 9/11 era was worse than what we are going through right now then I'd take no further advice from them because they are talking nonsense.

Yes there was a traffic hold/stop for several days, duration dependent on where you were, yes there was a downturn whilst confidence recovered, yes there were redundancies, but the situation really never looked anything like as dire medium/long term across the whole industry as what we are witnessing now.. Were the pilots you are hearing making these claims actually flying commercially at the time - in 2001?

..and yes, you are right, the next few years will be tough, tougher than post 9/11..

Good Luck

[woptb]

Meester proach

You seem rather self absorbed, as to others schadenfreude regarding your plight,can’t imagine why they might feel that way.......

[nolimitholdem]

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher

The conventional wisdom at the moment ( it changes every week ) is 70% by 2024.

That it changes every week demonstrates how useless an estimate it is. Sheer tea-leaves-reading nonsense.

The fact is no one knows where the world, or the industry will be by Christmas, let alone 2024.

[nickler]

Originally Posted by woptb

You seem rather self absorbed, as to others schadenfreude regarding your plight,can’t imagine why they might feel that way.......

Meester proach is totally right. I just laugh when I read all the nonsense about "finding a way out" or read posts on social media on how managers should hire pilots in their industries because we do have certain qualities, we pass our OPCs and medicals and so on... come on... nobody cares. The truth is You either have other qualifications and experience besides being a professional pilot or You will end up with a poorly paid lower class back up job. It's as simple as it is. Besides getting a masters in Your 40s without any work experience outside the flight deck might help a bit, but it's a time (and money) consuming commitment and most people with families and bills to be paid simply can't afford the deal.

[ATC Watcher]

Originally Posted by nolimitholdem

That it changes every week demonstrates how useless an estimate it is. Sheer tea-leaves-reading nonsense.

The fact is no one knows where the world, or the industry will be by Christmas, let alone 2024.

Well you may be right but no need to denigrate professionals making forecast .Our sources come from Eurocontrol , IATA weekly updates ( Public , search for them ) Airbus , and a few independent airlines that still employ them , Like Lufthansa for instance.
It is a bit more than reading tea leaves.
The latest Eurocontrol comprehensive assessment dated 8 July is following their predicted curve , we are currently at 21% of 2019 levels, expected to be at 50% by September and may reach 75-80% in Febr 2021 then it is likely to say there for quite some time .. That is for European traffic , which is slightly lagging behind US domestic traffic ( currently at 36%, )
For world wide, traffic IATA is more pessimistic. Same for Airbus. Airlines expansion plans are shelved and they expect the 70% plateau to last until 2024. For info US international traffic is only at 10% currently .

As an aside , re the title of this thread : Pilots lives matter ...I find this a bit overdone to be honest , The Black community uses this slogan to denounce the murdering of young blacks in the US. There is quite a difference between losing you life and losing your job..

[Meester proach]

Originally Posted by woptb

You seem rather self absorbed, as to others schadenfreude regarding your plight,can’t imagine why they might feel that way.......

Self absorbed ? What a strange thing to say.
I imagine you are one of the haters.

[Pistonprop]

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher

The latest Eurocontrol comprehensive assessment dated 8 July is following their predicted curve , we are currently at 21% of 2019 levels, expected to be at 50% by September and may reach 75-80% in Febr 2021 then it is likely to say there for quite some time .. That is for European traffic.

That forecast may well go up in smoke if a second wave hits Europe this winter, which is quite likely.

[guy_incognito]

Originally Posted by nickler

Meester proach is totally right. I just laugh when I read all the nonsense about "finding a way out" or read posts on social media on how managers should hire pilots in their industries because we do have certain qualities, we pass our OPCs and medicals and so on... come on... nobody cares. The truth is You either have other qualifications and experience besides being a professional pilot or You will end up with a poorly paid lower classup job. It's as simple as it is. Besides getting a masters in Your 40s without any work experience outside the flight deck might help a bit, but it's a time (and money) consuming commitment and most people with families and bills to be paid simply can't afford the deal.

Exactly this. The majority of pilots have no relevant and/or recent alternative qualifications and little in the way of transferable skills. The types of jobs open to pilots are unskilled, minimum wage jobs. It is fanciful to suggest that we'd be competitive even for entry level graduate positions.

It is impossible to overstate how horrendous the situation is for pilots with mortgages, childcare/ school fees, training loans etc. to pay. I don't to see how any pilot will ever be able to commit to buying a house or even to starting a family; there is simply too much risk. The future for those "lucky enough" to find another flying job looks likely to be temporary contracts on a fraction of the salaries previously offered. This career is dead.

[TommiW]

ATC watcher; thaks for signposting where we can get some professional views on what the state of CAT is likely to be over the coming years. Of course, these forecasts are based on many assumptions of the future and so the figures could be better or worse, however, I reckon it's better than most pprune armchair analysts could do.

Unless I've misread the latest Eurocontrol report, it looks to me like Europe is currently at 35% of 2019 levels rather than the 21% you have quoted. Also, Feb 2021 is forecast to be at 75-85% of 2019 levels, and if the current trend line on that report continues it should be closer to the upper end.

[FMS82]

I read these forums with great interest, and have refrained from commenting much, as I merely am SLF. Here's 2 cents

I come from a flying family, and have seriously considered a career as one of you guys, but was fortunate enough to have a sneak peak of what pilot life would offer I chose a career in engineering instead. You have my sympathy for what is happening to your industry, and I see many sensible comments on here that show a sense of urgency reflective of the situation the world is in.

However, I also see a persistent amount of denial, with wild predictions of holiday travel booming back up once the time is right.
​​​​That would be nice indeed, but what pays your package is not that once-a-year tourist. It is (was) the business clientele closer to the pointy end. I used to be one of them, but can assure me and my colleagues will not be flying much for the foreseeable future. The worst news is that we don't miss it for a minute.

The thing is we were forced to learn a few new tricks in the last months, and online productivity tools have taken a great leap, such that meetings that required face 2 face contact in the past, can now be done comfortably and productively on a remote basis. We love it, and I am sure I speak on behalf of many of my peers.

Something changed. Traffic is not coming back to the old levels.

Wake up, smell that coffee, and rejig your life to find a meaningful and fulfilling alternative source of income. If flying is part of that, great, but don't expect to make as great a living or if it as you may have been used to.

​​​

[TommiW]

I believe you're largely correct with respect to business travel. However, there are a few charter airlines that deal solely in the leisure market. And that will never be replaced by zoom. For those airlines, the once a year holidaymaker is exactly who pays their pilots wages

[FMS82]

Not disagreeing. But the dip we will all be going through will turn those people into once-every-two-years holidaymakers. And that is a problem, especially when combined with a woke generation who are no longer interested in city tripping weekends or stag do's just an easyJet away.

The golden days are over.

​​

[PAXboy]

Bindair Dundat

The point of the thread is the way aviation is hell bent on decimating the piloting profession. No other industry treats it's employees with quite as much contempt. Everyone expects layoffs. No one expects all jobs to be saved in the context of COVID. When mass layoffs hit other industries there are all kinds of supports and concessions for retraining and considerations for the lives that are being upended. In an industry where people are literally trusting their lives to the people up front, it's startling to me that people are treated with such disregard. The industry was broken before, COVID put it into very sharp focus.

As others have said, Flight Crew are highly specialised people - like Doctors - they cannot readily transfer to other lines of work. Normally they have to find something entirely different to do and, given that millions of others are currently having to do the same ... I do understand this. My nephew became a Senior Second Office with a national airline (not in the UK) and, aged about 40 when he was looking for further promotion - his otilith organ failed in one ear and he lost his medical. End of career. All he had wanted to do from the age of 12 - gone, overnight. His insurance paid out but that does not cover another 20 years of working life. They had to downsize their house and his wife went back to work.

Further, you say, "No other industry treats it's employees with quite as much contempt." Having spent 27 years in corporate life - I disagree! Myself and my friends and family have been subject to constructive dismissal, redundancy at zero minutes notice, being lied to by men and women in suits, being sidelined for promotion (ask women and people of colour about this) and, on one famous day: I was due to take a posting with the company overseas and it was widely known. I had been back and forth to NYC, the company had arranged an apartment for me and secured my USA work Visa. Three hours before my leaving party - I was told that the deal was off. Nothing else, just stay in the old job with everyone knowing you wanted to leave.

Chiefttp

After all, if what you say comes to pass, nobody will have money to buy their products. Friends I know in financial circles believe that Real Estate, especially commercial real estate will be affected, but the financial foundation of the markets and banking is still very strong (in the US) He even mentioned a better quality of life for working folks who are embracing telecommuting as a new normal. Time will tell.

I have tended to prepare for the worst and, to blow my own trumpet: I saw the 1989/91 recession and made plans to 'duck' but corporate business did otherwise - twice, the first being the NYC story above. So I lost a lot. I saw the DotCom bubble but was not invested in that market so that was OK. I saw the 2008 crash coming and was ready and able to withstand that, however, it was apparent the the financial system was not changed in any significant way - mainly because politicians do not like to send their friends in the City to jail! So I was ready and prepared for the next financial crash and saw it brewing in 2018 (as mentioned above) and started to prepare for it. I have been expecting the Pandemic for a long time, it was only a question of when. Unfortunately for the world, Covid 19 arrived just at the time that the market was ready to pop and people were thinking that things were going well.

nolimitholdem

The fact is no one knows where the world, or the industry will be by Christmas, let alone 2024.

Yes, I agree but look at history. Look at the Spanish Flu, the Great Depression, 9/11 and consider how much more connected we are by jet engines and telecommunications. Everything that happend in the past will happen again but BIGGER and longer lasting. It will happen because we know that humans do not learn from the past. The last six months have already shown that the USA and UK (and others) have learnt nothing from the past or the present.

Many companies can plan a one year life cycle. Vehicle manufacturers have to plan for five years, the airline world (makers, finance and operators) have to work at 15 years or more. Since they have all got used to steady expansion since the arrival of the 747, they have had 50 years of steadily increasing money. Now they have had to stop overnight. No company can do that in a nice way. So I am saddened about the way the airlines are treating all their crew and staff - but it is was corporates do.

[Gipsy Queen]

As I suggested in my earlier post, the key to resuming any sort of recovery is CONFIDENCE. And the key driver of that has to be national governments. So far, and certainly in the UK, the government has contributed little more than confusion.

There was a parallel situation after 9/11 when public confidence, or a lack thereof, was causing considerable hardship to the airlines. My wife and I, for no reason other than to demonstrate support for the industry, booked a return flight on Jet Blue from FLL to JFK. I'm not claiming any moral superiority here but if more people could manage something similar, others might be inspired to follow the example.

[PilotLZ]

There aren't any hard and fast rules for a situation which has so far been totally unknown to modern humankind. What may be perfectly valid for one person or company or geographical region may be totally implausible elsewhere. Assuming that everything and everyone everywhere in the world will follow the same pattern is a wild oversimplification.

However, since we already have some observations over all sorts of localised crisis, this allows for some conclusions. Some processes which dramatically change the landscape happen on a local scale in different places all the time. Destinations that were once looming with travel have been isolated from most of the world and devastated in past years due to wars, annexation etc. At the same time, others have flourished (compare the Middle East from a couple of decades ago VS what you see now). So, your individual prospects depend not only upon your skills, personality and reputation, but also upon where you are situated and how willing to relocate you are if need be. Some places will recover faster than others, some will exceed 2019 traffic levels relatively soon while others might never do. Some companies will do better than others, some will not survive at all. The question is, where exactly will you fit within that puzzle. It might not be exactly where you have imagined yourself, but you will sooner or later make it work if you so desire.

[woptb]

Originally Posted by Meester proach

Self absorbed ? What a strange thing to say.
I imagine you are one of the haters.

Thinking is difficult isn’t it,that is why some choose to judge and the worst of all,judge based on their own standards .

[Old Dogs]

Originally Posted by Meester proach

PPRune = pilots.

Not mechanics, cabin crew, etc?🤔

[megan]

No other industry treats it's employees with quite as much contempt

All companys are the same, we had a boss call our group into a conference room and tell us, "We don't give a f... about you people", exact words, reason being the low turn over of employees with our particular skill set. Can't blame him for his honesty, but wasn't something we didn't already know, it's something instilled in the MBA curriculum.