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PIA A320 Crash Karachi

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PIA A320 Crash Karachi

Old 29th Jun 2020, 20:13
  #1481 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by donotdespisethesnake View Post
The risks of continuing an unstable approach are also well known, and better emphasis of that will surely be the focus of any recommendations.
How much more emphasis does somebody need? This was't an unstable approach. Unstable is Ref+20 at 500ft. Unstable is 1200fpm at a normal weight on a 3 degree glideslope.

What happened here was a "could you land an airliner if the pilots died" challenge.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 00:15
  #1482 (permalink)  
 
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“PIA acknowledges the AAIB report and has already taken measures learning from it. An independent Flight Data Monitoring setup established to monitor & analyze all flights. All pilots with dubious licenses will be grounded. Safety is more imp. than any commercial interest.”
I truly hope that is the case, but surely an Airline of the size of PIA already has a flight safety department? What were they doing? twiddling their thumbs? Have they ever pulled a QAR? Forgive me if I have absolutely no faith in anything they say.

What happened here was a "could you land an airliner if the pilots died" challenge.
A Calm and rational passenger with radio contact would have done far better simply with the automatics than those two clowns.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 00:54
  #1483 (permalink)  
 
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According to this tweet from an American expat in Pakistan (she famously claims to be a #MeToo victim of local politicians), the PK8303 captain had failed a psych test when he first applied to PIA as a Cadet Pilot. He appealed and a Sindh judge ordered him hired.


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Old 30th Jun 2020, 01:09
  #1484 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by patrickal View Post
I'll start off with not a pilot, but a career IT person with much background in machine/user interaction. The same thought came to me also after hearing so many truly knowledgeable pilots say the same thing. I haven't read through all of the posts on this thread....too many to do so. But has anyone raised the thought of something akin to hypoxia or carbon monoxide poisoning? These were not two rookies, and yet their behavior is beyond anything any pilot could imagine taking place in a commercial airliner. Could some fault in the pressurization or environmental systems cause them to be disoriented or partially incapacitated? It just does not seem possible that they could have made so many bad decisions along the way without realizing they were getting deeper and deeper into trouble and taking some corrective action. The fact that, as ferry pilot stated, they made so many deliberate actions that were all wrong begs for a better explanation other than they thought they could get away with it.
Probably because they have been getting away with it all along. I would think the problem starts at the top at this airline and as a pilot, there is NO CHANCE you will be called in to the Chief pilots office because the plane told him you landed the aircraft and never stabilized the approach.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 02:34
  #1485 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by patrickal View Post
Could some fault in the pressurization or environmental systems cause them to be disoriented or partially incapacitated?

Patrickal, Airbus has NOT given a technical recommendation. If there had been a problem with the airplane, they would have at least given a recommendation or comment. A possible line of inquiry would be the blood sugar levels of the pilots, as they may have been fasting, because of Ramadan.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 07:17
  #1486 (permalink)  
 
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By psychiatric test they mean psychological profiling. It is not fool proof. Moreover he has been in the business of aviation for 30 odd years and have logged 17000 hours. Psychological tests are very subjective and gives out very generalised opinions. Apart from Defence forces I doubt if it is being used anywhere else. The report (31 year old) is no reflection of pilots health as of today.

In my opinion it was a very rare occasion when small small issues aligned to gradually take the pilot into this mess. Ego, complacency, gap in flying, empty sky, over confidence and simply oversight made them high and hot. Thereafter they tried to catch up with it and in rush of things the two pilots went out of synchronisation. The number of parameters that they were juggling were simply beyond their cognitive abilities. Still seeing the runway straight ahead they thought they can salvage the approach.

Things would have worked out (in pilots opinion) but because of one aspect, gear, which he thought was down. I think the pilot all the time thought that the gear was down. Perhaps it could be on the back of his mind that in case they land too long he will go round. Moreover human is capable of doing something which escapes explanation. I feel sad for the Pilot monitoring who could not muster enough courage to challenge the pilot. I think it is an organisational issue.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 07:23
  #1487 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Sikpilot View Post
Probably because they have been getting away with it all along. I would think the problem starts at the top at this airline and as a pilot, there is NO CHANCE you will be called in to the Chief pilots office because the plane told him you landed the aircraft and never stabilized the approach.
To complete an overall picture for the Airbus fleet, apart from FDR / FDM which might have been available, ask ATC at the various national airports as to the ‘style’ of the approaches generally.
Any “Pony Express” mentality?

Had the radar recordings prior to this tragic avoidable event been analysed (preserved for 30+ days before used again?) then a clearer picture would have emerged as to the modus operandi of PIA.

As for the concept of failing the psychometric testing prior to employment, appealing to a Tribunal, who can then instruct the employer to enrol them....more questions than answers....wonder if his training records any unusual qualities...? Just who was he?
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 07:40
  #1488 (permalink)  
 
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Despite all the evidence available, all the time that has passed and all the expert opinion offered on this forum, there has been no solution to this mystery. We know what happened, but we do not know why. So we speculate.
Having ruled out almost everything else, it looks like the pilots broke all the rules and tried to fly the airplane so far outside its operating limits and their own, they crashed it. In the worst case, they were having a little fun, playing a dangerous and illegal game that got out of hand. Hard to believe, but if there is a more forgiving explanation on the cockpit voice recorder we should be hearing it sooner rather than later.
If not, and this awful conclusion turns out to be correct, this crash was not an accident. It was a systemic failure. We don’t speculate on that. Or at least I don't
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 07:52
  #1489 (permalink)  
 
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there has been no solution to this mystery.
We need to "hear" the CVR in full.
By this I mean a properly translated record that captures the nuances of the language used in the technical environment. I would guess only a fellow native speaking Airbus rated pilot would be able to get the subtleties of the interraction between the crew and ATC.

Just the R/T side leaves too many questions.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 09:12
  #1490 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by patrickal View Post
.......... But has anyone raised the thought of something akin to hypoxia or carbon monoxide poisoning? These were not two rookies, and yet their behavior is beyond anything any pilot could imagine taking place in a commercial airliner. Could some fault in the pressurization or environmental systems cause them to be disoriented or partially incapacitated?
Yes, I suggested this a while back. Undetected fumes, e.g. CO, undetected food poisoning, undetected depressurisation.

My reasoning, like yours, is because the actions of these pilots were not just accidentally negligent - they were deliberately and therefore criminally negligent. Why would two pilots be criminally negligent unless they were mentally compromised in some way?

I don't buy the assertion that the pilots were discussing Covid19 for the last 30 mins either.

Maybe the Captain's son was in his seat driving Daddy's plane, and it got out of hand before the Captain could get back in his seat? I hope not.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 10:05
  #1491 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ETOPS View Post
We need to "hear" the CVR in full.
By this I mean a properly translated record that captures the nuances of the language used in the technical environment. I would guess only a fellow native speaking Airbus rated pilot would be able to get the subtleties of the interraction between the crew and ATC.
Just the R/T side leaves too many questions.
I will not be too hopeful the public will "hear" the CVR. The tendency nowadays in recent major reports to avoid media interpretation ( and probably ours here as well seeing some of the posts ) is to release only an edited transcript ..Some countries have even now prohibiting the publication of CVRs ,I do not know what the current law in Pakistan is .
As to the ATC R/T divulged on internet immediately after the accident , as I mentioned at the beginning here, for me it looks like there are transmissions missing ( not recorded) just like it was in the Kathmandu Dash 8 accident.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 10:34
  #1492 (permalink)  
 
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This sequence of events leading up to this accident is not unique.
For anyone interested read up on Garuda flight GA200 into Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 10:49
  #1493 (permalink)  
 
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CVR - wait for final report - but . . .

SLF (expanding into aviation law)
Isn't there a case in this exact kind of situation for the full CVR output to be made available to an authorized and official inquiry group to vet for some public disclosure? -- and for this to happen much quicker than the routine process of a full AAIB review and report?
Reason for advocating faster process in this situation has two parts. First is the fact that the globally widespread standing-down of civil aviation holds at least some prospect of decrease in overall performance attributes of returning pilots. Not all, and not necessarily serious where it does occur, but the situation is truly uncharted territory (isn't it?) and so a measure of urgency appears justified, despite the standard rule of waiting upon the final report. Second, whatever the truth turns out to be about why this accident occurred, the fact is that, today, it presents unknowns beyond the stock or catalog of occurrences with tragic results. I mean, probably dozens of very highly qualified aviators have weighed in on-thread about how the badly unstabilized approach, and how many if not mostly all of the two pilots' actions (or omissions of actions), just don't make any sense. (I'll rely on this second factor alone if the first one is too ill-informed.)
As for a vehicle within which to make this quite atypical disclosure, well Annex 13 isn't carved in stone (ask the Iranians . . . ) and so it "**should**" be possible and even feasible to create a subgroup, and to have the equivalent of what we do in courtrooms in the U.S. -- in camera review, where only the judge and his or her staff see the material, and then decide what -- if anything -- can be put on the record. I quite realize this process doesn't exist at present. But….some combination of 'necessity is the mother of invention' with 'hard cases with allegations of bribery in the background make uncomfortable law'.

Last edited by WillowRun 6-3; 30th Jun 2020 at 11:09.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 10:55
  #1494 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
Yes, I suggested this a while back. Undetected fumes, e.g. CO, undetected food poisoning, undetected depressurisation.

My reasoning, like yours, is because the actions of these pilots were not just accidentally negligent - they were deliberately and therefore criminally negligent. Why would two pilots be criminally negligent unless they were mentally compromised in some way?
Have you been fasting too?

I do not believe for a second that the crew decided to land wheels up.
Hard as it is for those of us who fly in another hemisphere and culture, this sort of cowboy flying is not uncommon. Stable approaches are for the weak.
I can't say that they weren't incapacitated of course - and that still may be the case - but don't feel pressured to make up scenarios just to excuse what you or I would call incompetence and recklessness that subsequently leads to an accident.
I don't buy the assertion that the pilots were discussing Covid19 for the last 30 mins either.
It was on the CVR?
Maybe the Captain's son was in his seat driving Daddy's plane, and it got out of hand before the Captain could get back in his seat? I hope not
Really?
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 11:05
  #1495 (permalink)  
 
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I think the Daddy's plane comment is a reference to Aeroflot 593.

That accident occurred after the pilot let his son have a fly of an A300 Airbus.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 11:31
  #1496 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by compressor stall View Post
.....I would call incompetence and recklessness that subsequently leads to an accident......
Their mental state is central to this tragic crash. I would suggest that during the (late) descent the chemical and electrical pathways in the brain were such that an ‘abnormality of the mind’ occurred. The psychologists views on the CVR will be interesting.

As to why this occurred is at present subject to conjecture ~ fasting, dehydration might be two routes to explore? Toxicology report awaited.

As far as has been disclosed in 22 June report, no evidence of fumes in the cockpit / decompression.

The jigsaw is far from complete.

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Old 30th Jun 2020, 11:35
  #1497 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by clark y View Post
I think the Daddy's plane comment is a reference to Aeroflot 593.

That accident occurred after the pilot let his son have a fly of an A300 Airbus.
I got the reference, just wondering its relevance here?
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 11:45
  #1498 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by parkfell View Post
Their mental state is central to this tragic crash. I would suggest that during the (late) descent the chemical and electrical pathways in the brain were such that an ‘abnormality of the mind’ occurred. The psychologists views on the CVR will be interesting.

As to why this occurred is at present subject to conjecture ~ fasting, dehydration might be two routes to explore? Toxicology report awaited.

As far as has been disclosed in 22 June report, no evidence of fumes in the cockpit / decompression.

The jigsaw is far from complete.
yes all the pieces of the puzzle need to be searched for. Some may be found. We don’t know how many pieces there are yet.

But as it stands we have:
  1. a distracted crew from COVID,
  2. not very current
  3. missed the TOD from (1)
  4. possible pride “real pilots don’t orbit or go around”
  5. meek FO
  6. gear out at 7k to help descent
  7. gear up on GP intercept (meek FO moves the handle the only way it will go, maybe getting confused for a go around?)
  8. Approach waaay to fast and no Dangling Dunlops that normally slow them down when they might have done this before.
  9. real pilots don’t go around. That’s embarrassing.
  10. oh crap the gear is up.
I don’t think this scenario “needs” a fumes event factor.

There may be one, I can’t say there is t just as you can’t say there is. But there’s enough in the list above not to need one.

I have sat at at the holding point in India on a 2000m runway. Pretty much half way along the runway. We were waiting for the arrival on an aircraft inbound so we could enter and backtrack. It was a bit over 10 years ago, actually right in the midst of the last fake pilot scandal.
We commented how high the aircraft was on final.... we sat waiting for the go around. It never came. The 320 was well past us before it touched down.

Last edited by compressor stall; 30th Jun 2020 at 11:57.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 11:48
  #1499 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Rednerib View Post
....... Still seeing the runway straight ahead they thought they can salvage the approach........ I think it is an organisational issue.
Clearly they thought that. It was insane to think it could be ‘salvaged’, even if the gear had been down.

Perhaps the original psychometric testing had revealed an important characteristic?
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 12:01
  #1500 (permalink)  
 
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As Rednerib also points out above, this Twitter post is way over the top. A psychometric test does not address "psychiatric issues". And the conclusions based on a test made more then 30 years ago have little or no validity that concerns the present day individual.
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