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Is the 380 Doomed?

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Is the 380 Doomed?

Old 21st May 2020, 11:49
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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If Air France doesn't want the "French" Jumbo then it may well be doomed.

https://www.traveller.com.au/airbus-...-airbus-h1o72s
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Old 21st May 2020, 12:12
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Out Of Trim View Post
I really don't think so!

I believe the aviation industry will recover within 12 to 18 months once Covid-19 is brought under control. Customers really enjoy flying on the A380. Obviously, it will only be suitable for certain routes. But many airlines might well regret losing them once the market returns to something near our recent normality. We will see.
"Once Covid 19 is brought under control" Hmm. Most medical authorities are now saying that ain't going to happen and the world has to learn to live with it. Even the normally ultra-bullish CEO of LHR said that the third runway there might never be needed as a result of Covid-19, so methinks a 12-18 month recovery is just not going to happen.
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Old 21st May 2020, 12:39
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by evansb View Post
Boeing's 377 Stratocruiser used the basement as a cocktail lounge. Now that is an advantage.
Emirates A380 -has- a cocktail lounge
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Old 21st May 2020, 13:10
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by procede View Post
If anything, before Covid, we actually have more hubs with more connections. Look at Norwegian and Virgin: Profitable long haul travel is nearly impossible without a hub and spoke operation to fill your daily long haul flights.

The main issue with the A380 are the relatively high operating costs, high density seating on aircraft like the 777-300ER and low marginal yields per passenger on most routes. The first 300 pax might pay enough, but after that the yield per passenger is not enough to cover the additional cost per seat on the A380 vs. the 777.
Another "main issue" with the A380 is its relative lack of cargo space, which in a post Covid world is going to be even more important if cargo traffic recovers quicker than passenger traffic. Cargo doesn't care what type it flies on!
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:31
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flyingmole View Post
Even the normally ultra-bullish CEO of LHR said that the third runway there might never be needed as a result of Covid-19, so methinks a 12-18 month recovery is just not going to happen.
As someone that had been working on LHR expansion, plus other stuff there, up until 5 weeks ago......I'm not surprised he's now saying that. I sadly think 3rd runway is now definately never going to happen, not just from a 'need' point of view, but from a financial POV from being able to pay for it all. The revenue drops that HAL are taking based on even already started work projects now being culled before being finished, and it will easily be 5 years before any sign of restarting from where it stopped a month ago, and given the massive expertise in such matters also likely being long lost by then, you are likely talking about a 10 year delay over what they had originally been hoping for, before being dropped in it by HMG in Jan after the court case.

My guess would be their focus will now just be on T1 demo and T2A extension, T2C build, and then T3 demo and remodelling of central area to finish the 'toast rack'.



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Old 21st May 2020, 14:36
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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If A380s are going cheap, would they not be an option for Chinese airlines for their domestic market?
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:53
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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The Chinese government preferred to split their market growth into many small players instead of growing say Air China to some super giant. This hurt the expected or hoped for A380 sales in China very much. However the Middle East as a key market had not been expected before.
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Old 21st May 2020, 16:42
  #88 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Pistonprop View Post
If A380s are going cheap, would they not be an option for Chinese airlines for their domestic market?
A330-900 (NEO) seats max 460 passengers, that'd be my bet. The trip distances in mainland China are actually not too great.
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Old 21st May 2020, 19:14
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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"Is the A-380 doomed?"

One can only hope . . .
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Old 21st May 2020, 19:53
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe there's a little spark of hope
https://simpleflying.com/british-air...80-manila/amp/
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Old 21st May 2020, 20:54
  #91 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
The A380 is a well made aircraft (wing cracks aside) with high passenger appeal but the concept of hub and spoke is less relevant for today.
Flexibility will be required as well, the B787 can operate into surprisingly small airports where as the A380 is limited to major, specially equipped ones.
I think this is a big part of the A380 issue - the A380 is only able to operate into a relatively small number of airports - far fewer than even the 747. For example, A380's can't operate into the Seattle airport - it's an approved diversion airport but not available for scheduled operations. Seattle is a major gateway airport to Asia (it's far closer than LA and San Francisco). At one time numerous 747s operated out of here to various destinations in Asia (now largely replaced by big twins). If I want to fly an A380, instead of taking a non-stop to Asia, I have to make a connection in LAX or SFO - adding hours to what's already a long trip. I did that once - connecting through LAX so I could fly an A380 to Incheon instead of flying a non-stop out of SEA - because I wanted to fly on an A380 (Korean, business class). Yes, it was very nice - noticeably quieter than the 777 I came home on and the vodka bar on the A380 was great - but it made the trip ~six hours longer than a non-stop would have been. I seriously doubt I'd do it again - and I'm one of the few that actually pays attention to what aircraft I'm going to be flying on and allows it to influence my ticket buying decision.
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Old 21st May 2020, 21:27
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent View Post
A330-900 (NEO) seats max 460 passengers, that'd be my bet. The trip distances in mainland China are actually not too great.
It depends on your pont of view. Shanghai to Urumqi is more than six hours.
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Old 21st May 2020, 23:04
  #93 (permalink)  

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Shanghai to Urumqi is more than six hours.
Expertly spotted, in a strong headwind. Otherwise: Great Circle Mapper or Harbin to Sanya
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Old 22nd May 2020, 06:30
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent View Post
Expertly spotted, in a strong headwind. Otherwise: Great Circle Mapper or Harbin to Sanya
Flew Beijing Urumqi on a Il86, and I'm sure the take off run alone took 4 hours.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 09:25
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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The A380 is starting to look more and more like the Concorde, a specialised aircraft which only works on a few city pairs but has an aura of prestige and passenger appeal about it. BA being willing to spend millions on it is welcome news, with London as a major world city they can probably operate it profitably on routes to other major world cities such as New York and Tokyo. The likelihood of cheap spare parts and low time airframes being available, together with the price of oil being depressed for the foreseeable future, would have been major factors in their decision.

Airlines such as Thai Airways, Korean Air, Malaysia Airlines will almost certainly get rid of them leaving a handful of operators such as BA and Emirates operating less than 100 A380s in total on carefully selected routes which are profitable due to the aircraft, spares and fuel being cheap.

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Old 22nd May 2020, 09:50
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
The A380 is starting to look more and more like the Concorde, a specialised aircraft which only works on a few city pairs but has an aura of prestige and passenger appeal about it. BA being willing to spend millions on it is welcome news, with London as a major world city they can probably operate it profitably on routes to other major world cities such as New York and Tokyo. The likelihood of cheap spare parts and low time airframes being available, together with the price of oil being depressed for the foreseeable future, would have been major factors in their decision.

Airlines such as Thai Airways, Korean Air, Malaysia Airlines will almost certainly get rid of them leaving a handful of operators such as BA and Emirates operating less than 100 A380s in total on carefully selected routes which are profitable due to the aircraft, spares and fuel being cheap.
That might work until, like Concorde, it becomes not worth Airbus' while to support the type in service anymore.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 09:53
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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They have guaranteed to ANA to service the type for some long time to come. IIRC 30 years? Mind you they still get new ones now.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 12:15
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
The A380 is starting to look more and more like the Concorde, a specialised aircraft which only works on a few city pairs but has an aura of prestige and passenger appeal about it. BA being willing to spend millions on it is welcome news, with London as a major world city they can probably operate it profitably on routes to other major world cities such as New York and Tokyo. The likelihood of cheap spare parts and low time airframes being available, together with the price of oil being depressed for the foreseeable future, would have been major factors in their decision.
.
Well as long as the passengers are prepared to pay for the prestige.....

There are "lack of economics of scale" issues if you start operating a really bespoke small fleet, but as long as fuel stays low and passengers are prepared to pay for the prestige it might work, that said I'm not sure I'd go with the 380 being a good option for BA into either New York or Tokyo..

It has pretty much always been claimed that for BA the 380 on the New York isn't a good fit - historically there were terminal/gate issues and if frequency of flights returns to being important post Covid that doesn't favour the 380 over more frequent services on smaller types...

As far as Tokyo goes, I suppose BA might consider merging the previous two a day operation to one a day into HND ( BA were supposed to out of NRT fairly soon) but as I recall it a lot of belly freight gets hauled out of Tokyo which might not favour the 380 over, say, a two a day 777-300/787 operation.

Given the flight to Manila BA obviously have a cunning plan, darned if I know what it is - of course cities other than New York or Tokyo are available..

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Old 22nd May 2020, 19:32
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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My guess is, that in the business related travelling, the time is money and they are prepared to pay a little more (but not very much) even in the post COVID world. I think that this is where something like A321XLR can be a real game changer. With that kind of tool it might be possible to maintain frequency even in the shrieked markets without too high fares. It is possible that it divides markets to highly cost sensitive part and time sensitive part.

If that happens it is a bad news for the wide body business and force them back to hub-spoken model to minimize the costs. Most probable, then both manufacturers will develop something between A32XLR and 787/A330. In that case, the wide body markets remains soft for quite long time.

Most probable this guess miss the target by a wide margin. However, in the near future there are too many planes available and creative destruction can not be avoided. It donít bring A380 back but someone might (and just might) find out how to make money with used ones. Maybe, it is more likely that prime time of wide bodies are over...
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Old 23rd May 2020, 00:56
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JPcont View Post
My guess is, that in the business related travelling, the time is money and they are prepared to pay a little more (but not very much) even in the post COVID world. I think that this is where something like A321XLR can be a real game changer. With that kind of tool it might be possible to maintain frequency even in the shrieked markets without too high fares. It is possible that it divides markets to highly cost sensitive part and time sensitive part.

If that happens it is a bad news for the wide body business and force them back to hub-spoken model to minimize the costs. Most probable, then both manufacturers will develop something between A32XLR and 787/A330. In that case, the wide body markets remains soft for quite long time.

Most probable this guess miss the target by a wide margin. However, in the near future there are too many planes available and creative destruction can not be avoided. It donít bring A380 back but someone might (and just might) find out how to make money with used ones. Maybe, it is more likely that prime time of wide bodies are over...
As long as countries are imposing 14day quarantines on incoming passengers, don't expect business travel or even pleasure travel to take off ( so to speak)
Business travel will be replaced by video conferencing.
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