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Is the 380 Doomed?

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Is the 380 Doomed?

Old 18th May 2020, 20:40
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Not sure about the premium segment. A380 cabin refurbishing seems to be exceptionally expensive as early configurations had been very much airline custom tailored and are not easy to change.There are fancier cabins available at the same time onboard the latest built twins these days. Except maybe for the "Apartment". But that is just one single airline's offer. However the bar certainly has a certain fame and attracts premium travellers.
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Old 18th May 2020, 20:54
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WHBM View Post
That's just not correct, it's a mantra trotted out by LCCs in self-justification but they have not replaced established carriers at all.

If that was so, there would be no premium cabins and all flights would be single class. Looking wider, there would not be any fine restaurants, only McDonalds. No 5 star hotels, only Motel 6/Premier Inn and self-catering kitchenettes in the corner. There would not be nice houses with gardens, only cheap box apartments. It's the old Eastern European concept that one, low-cost approach fits all. And look where that got them.
When I look around, I see far more McDonalds and the like than I do 5 star restaurants - by orders of magnitude.
While there is definitely a segment that is not overly price sensitive, the majority is and will remain highly price sensitive.
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Old 18th May 2020, 20:58
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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The very top travel segment has moved on to private jets. And within business class again people seem to google for cheapest prices. Perfect flight times might be more important than airline brands or types of airplanes. So this segment might prefer more flights per day onboard smaller aircraft instead of one flight onboard the big one. I'd say the A380's future, we know production is set to end, is higher capacity economy with a bit of business on trunk routes.
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Old 18th May 2020, 21:27
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
But that is just one single airline's offer. However the bar certainly has a certain fame and attracts premium travellers.
I really enjoy the bar, just wish they could get the football on the big screen at the back. However every time I have used it there has been some drunk collapsing, spilling his drink over someone or knocking the dish of peanuts everywhere. It's hardly the 'premium' experience.

I do wonder though whether anyone would actually pay a premium for it if they had a choice.
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Old 18th May 2020, 23:10
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Compton3fox View Post
Quite a few freighters in there, I would say, or passenger aircraft operating supplementary cargo flights.
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Old 18th May 2020, 23:56
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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With fuel prices to remain low for some time the 380 will return as nothing can match the capacity to major Airports.
pax numbers will grow and go beyond what they were within 5 years so scrapping would be a disaster.
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Old 19th May 2020, 00:21
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 733driver View Post
Interesting. Except the 757 isn't a wide body.
I seem to remember that the B757 is classed as a widebody heavy due to its large wake turbulence.
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Old 19th May 2020, 01:20
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Aircraft has to be over 300,000 pounds to be heavy. A 757 is under this.
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Old 19th May 2020, 03:20
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rabbitwear View Post
With fuel prices to remain low for some time the 380 will return as nothing can match the capacity to major Airports.
pax numbers will grow and go beyond what they were within 5 years so scrapping would be a disaster.
most think it wonít unfortunately
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Old 19th May 2020, 06:30
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Climb150 View Post
Aircraft has to be over 300,000 pounds to be heavy. A 757 is under this.
While you are correct about the actual weight, my understanding is the 757 is classified as a heavy for wake turbulence separation purposes due to the number of issues experienced in service by following aircraft.
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Old 19th May 2020, 06:35
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jet II View Post
I seem to remember that the B757 is classed as a widebody heavy due to its large wake turbulence.
Other explanations for its inclusion in the widebody graphic are available.
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Old 19th May 2020, 06:42
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jet II View Post
I really enjoy the bar, just wish they could get the football on the big screen at the back. However every time I have used it there has been some drunk collapsing, spilling his drink over someone or knocking the dish of peanuts everywhere. It's hardly the 'premium' experience.
Iíve never seen that in all my flights from DXB. Maybe itís route specific?
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Old 19th May 2020, 06:42
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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The 757 can be classed as a heavy due to its unusual wing tip vortices but not classed as a wide body as it isn't one. Classed as Upper Medium for take off in the UK.
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Old 19th May 2020, 07:42
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Other explanations for its inclusion in the widebody graphic are available.
Such as it perhaps being compared to wide body twins because it is used on long haul routes where ETOPS is necessary
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Old 19th May 2020, 08:12
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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The A380 is a delight to fly on. Nothing touches it for the ride and cabin experience.

I think it will survive on the longer routes subject to the return of passenger traffic.
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Old 19th May 2020, 09:54
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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The B757 can be classed as a heavy when it’s the leading aircraft, due to its wake turbulence. When it’s the trailing aircraft it’s classed as a medium.

The A380’s future was looking dim before this pandemic, now it looks pretty dire. There will be very few routes which will be able to sustain an aircraft like this. The A350 is cheaper to fly, easier to fill, allows greater frequencies, flies where the A380 can’t and has the same passenger appeal. The B787 opened up many routes which previously couldn’t support a direct flight and relied connecting via a hub.

BA might be able to keep it on LHR - JFK and EK might be able to keep a few going as they can switch it with the B777 to match demand around the network, but for most other operators without a premium trunk route or the ability to keep swapping it onto high season sectors all year round it’s game over.
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Old 19th May 2020, 10:02
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Look at the world's population and big city growth. Hub traffic will be needed and come back as soon as corona restrictions are lifted. So "doomed" it is not. Still Airbus will be lucky to have ended production in time.
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Old 19th May 2020, 10:42
  #58 (permalink)  
JRK
 
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
The B757 can be classed as a heavy when itís the leading aircraft, due to its wake turbulence. When itís the trailing aircraft itís classed as a medium.

The A380ís future was looking dim before this pandemic, now it looks pretty dire. There will be very few routes which will be able to sustain an aircraft like this. The A350 is cheaper to fly, easier to fill, allows greater frequencies, flies where the A380 canít and has the same passenger appeal. The B787 opened up many routes which previously couldnít support a direct flight and relied connecting via a hub.

BA might be able to keep it on LHR - JFK and EK might be able to keep a few going as they can switch it with the B777 to match demand around the network, but for most other operators without a premium trunk route or the ability to keep swapping it onto high season sectors all year round itís game over.
unless your airline is effectively on state funding, then none of that economics stuff matters...
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Old 19th May 2020, 11:43
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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My opinion is that this COVID changed the rules of the profitability for many years. There are a lot overcapacity and there are still half paid panes in the pipeline waiting for build. This money is used. The current assets has lost much of their values. The fixed cost are present and they should basically be ignored from future planning. (Yet, many bean counter refuse to admit the harsh reality and they still include it to average cost that makes the optimization equations flawed)

Without proper assets, it is hard to get funding for new investments. It means that the investments are more expensive in near future. Leasing business will not help new investments similar as before.

All in all, it means that new planes has to be so much more efficient that the lower variable cost covers basically fully all the capital costs. It means that for example 777-9 must compete with fairly new ďfully paidĒ (the money used is practically written off) 777ER:s.

The ďtruthĒ in pre and post COVID world might be quite different.

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Old 19th May 2020, 13:12
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by donpizmeov View Post
But if they didn't SOPS, they could not compete with the cost per seat of the 380. Bean counters know numbers.
Apparently they really do! The 380 greatly outperforms the rest, AOG ......
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