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Is the 380 Doomed?

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Is the 380 Doomed?

Old 18th May 2020, 01:46
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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I believe as a cargo freighter the A-380 is a non starter. A 777 freighter is more fuel efficient and can carry about 20% more freight..the max zero fuel weight of the 380 Is too low for a profitable business model. It weighs too much and after cutting a Cargo door and strengthening the decks the wight increase makes it less plausible to make a profit.
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Old 18th May 2020, 02:09
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Originally Posted by Jet II View Post
Will it be economically viable to fly a A380 (or any aircraft for that matter) around with only a 50% seat capacity in the current airline model?. Ticket prices would have to rise a hell of a lot to make that in any way profitable.
The first and business classes on many A380 would do pretty well with distancing from other pax, premium economy would need to loose a few seats (around 20%) economy would take a larger hit.
Distancing will not require 50% seat capacity as distancing between family members is not required, only others. Seat pitch would need addressing in economy and possibly premium economy.

So given its physical size the A380 would be best placed for travel if distancing is required - pretty much no change in price for first and business travel, premium economy up 25% and economy up 35% would bring in around the same revenue as pre Covid.
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Old 18th May 2020, 06:29
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Originally Posted by Bend alot View Post
pretty much no change in price for first and business travel, premium economy up 25% and economy up 35% would bring in around the same revenue as pre Covid.
That implies you could safely fill 80% of the current cabin capacity in PE and almost 75% in Y.

Really ???
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Old 18th May 2020, 06:39
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Hi Fly seem to be doing well operating the A380 as a charter carrier. But will they still be looking for more of them in the future? Who knows.

Hi Fly looking at more A380's
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Old 18th May 2020, 06:46
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
That implies you could safely fill 80% of the current cabin capacity in PE and almost 75% in Y.

Really ???
Certainly closer than 50% loading's of an aircraft - KEEP in mind families do not require distancing and that is a lot of Y traffic. Airlines will need to adjust to this, rather than the current thinking a seat is a seat. Family bookings will save the amount of vacant seats.

To be clear 1.5m is not a distance I am talking - you might be thinking that, but other mitigation measures can reduce that distance.
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Old 18th May 2020, 07:34
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380

Airbus have been scrapping A380's already as customers dont want them.

Hi-Fly currently use them as they only pay for the hours they fly, no maintenance parking etc as all those cost are covered by airbus otherwise they scarp them , its just Airbus PR.. good for Hi-Fly.
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Old 18th May 2020, 10:22
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Originally Posted by Xi Ping View Post
Airbus have been scrapping A380's already as customers dont want them.

Hi-Fly currently use them as they only pay for the hours they fly, no maintenance parking etc as all those cost are covered by airbus otherwise they scarp them , its just Airbus PR.. good for Hi-Fly.
Yes and we had a pilot shortage and point to point was the go as airlines made huge profits - that all suddenly changed.

Oh and fuel, well cheap is an understatement even thou it is above $30 a barrel today - +$100 killed the 4 engine market, not been close to that for many years.
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Old 18th May 2020, 10:32
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Originally Posted by Xi Ping View Post
Airbus have been scrapping A380's already as customers dont want them.
.
If by that you mean they are scrapping A380's straight out of the plant at Blagnac then citation please.

Last edited by wiggy; 18th May 2020 at 12:22.
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Old 18th May 2020, 10:59
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Momoe View Post
Not necessarily, A380 was aimed at hub and spoke market, timing is everything and Airbus got it wrong because more efficient aircraft made long thin routes viable.
But the long thin routes have not happened, apart from a handful, and for BA as an example any that have come along with the 787 (eg US secondary points) are balanced by the loss of other long thin routes, such as Lusaka etc, as the market changes round. In fact, it's a challenge to find any 787 routes at all that are not operating out of a hub.

What has happened is the 787 has been principally deployed on routes that were previously running with larger aircraft, such as the 777. My last trip on one (desperately uncomfortable in Y 9-across seating) was on BA, Washington DC to London. For decades that was actually a 747 route.
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Old 18th May 2020, 11:09
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Thread drift .. and I know in the current times it does not really matter.

I wish airlines would stop putting in more seats than the aircraft was designed for. The 787 is an 8 abreast aircraft in Y.. but airlines are putting in 9.

The 777 is a nine abreast aircraft in Y, but many are putting in 10.

I know $$$$$
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Old 18th May 2020, 11:29
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Originally Posted by SOPS View Post
Thread drift .. and I know in the current times it does not really matter.

I wish airlines would stop putting in more seats than the aircraft was designed for. The 787 is an 8 abreast aircraft in Y.. but airlines are putting in 9.

The 777 is a nine abreast aircraft in Y, but many are putting in 10.

I know $$$$$
But if they didn't SOPS, they could not compete with the cost per seat of the 380. Bean counters know numbers.
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Old 18th May 2020, 11:38
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Originally Posted by donpizmeov View Post
But if they didn't SOPS, they could not compete with the cost per seat of the 380. Bean counters know numbers.
Two very good points.
Cramming to compete & bean counters thrive airlines until they die.

Nothing like MAXing out the numbers.
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Old 18th May 2020, 11:39
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People just browse the web for the lowest air fares. They don't care about comfort. At least not when buying.
Airlines just follow the money as do manufacturers and squeeze in more seats.This is why the sizing of current aircraft restrooms has become ridiculous.
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Old 18th May 2020, 17:27
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Originally Posted by crewmeal View Post
Hi Fly seem to be doing well operating the A380 as a charter carrier. But will they still be looking for more of them in the future? Who knows.

Hi Fly looking at more A380's
Check the date (the article was from Feb 2019... things have changed drastically since).

Much to my dismay (as a traveller), the 380 is indeed doomed. There will be some slot limited specific connections where it will still make sense but a definitely a niche market.
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Old 18th May 2020, 18:03
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
People just browse the web for the lowest air fares. They don't care about comfort.
That's just not correct, it's a mantra trotted out by LCCs in self-justification but they have not replaced established carriers at all.

If that was so, there would be no premium cabins and all flights would be single class. Looking wider, there would not be any fine restaurants, only McDonalds. No 5 star hotels, only Motel 6/Premier Inn and self-catering kitchenettes in the corner. There would not be nice houses with gardens, only cheap box apartments. It's the old Eastern European concept that one, low-cost approach fits all. And look where that got them.
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Old 18th May 2020, 20:06
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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There will almost certainly be less of them flying around after the pandemic is over, but I'd expect British Airways, Qantas, Emirates, to keep some operational. BA certainly due to Heathrow. It depends how we the travelling public respond to the pandemic and the recession. Give how before 2008, demand was for less frequent flights which made sense for the 747/A380. Following on from 2008, public and airline attitude changed to wanting more frequent flights,hence why the A350/787 have become so popular. If we go back to the pre 2008 attitude, we may well see a future for the A380 for a few more years, either way it's going to be an interesting and challenging time for us all in the industry.
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Old 18th May 2020, 20:10
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Old 18th May 2020, 20:16
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Originally Posted by Compton3fox View Post
Interesting. Except the 757 isn't a wide body.
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Old 18th May 2020, 20:24
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Originally Posted by WHBM View Post
That's just not correct, it's a mantra trotted out by LCCs in self-justification but they have not replaced established carriers at all.

If that was so, there would be no premium cabins and all flights would be single class.
Not sure that is strictly accurate. If you look at the industry in Europe then the advent of LCC's has pushed many of the legacy airlines to downgrade their product to LCC levels (and prices) to be able to compete - so for short-haul in Europe yes the LCC's did not replace the legacy carriers but only because the legacy carriers became in effect LCC's (with the subsequent T&C's for their staff). Premium cabins for shorthaul are now the exception and there hasnt really been the low cost competition on long haul routes to force such changes there.
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Old 18th May 2020, 20:31
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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The A380 will most likely remain on high yield routes, such as between CDG, LHR, JFK, LAX, SYD, SIN as it is unmatched for the premium segment.
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