Average US flight 17 pax
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"In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months. In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the G.B. and U.S. populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic… In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in G.B. and 2.2 million in the U.S., not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-mo...eaths-covid-19
Remember it's far from over, so the numbers are far from complete.
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Precisely : i doubt many people want to risk catching this on their outbound flight,or at their destination, and having to deal with the consequences of trying to get home again in a seat as opposed to a wooden box in the hold.
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And, with these new seating plans, will some seats actually be removed to save weight if they won't be used for a while? Will the FAA required number of flight attendants be reduced under 121.391? Seems like traditionally seating capacity for Part 121 purposes meant installed seats even of they were blocked for some reason.
Ttfn
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"Even after grounding more than 3,000 aircraft, or nearly 50% of the active U.S. fleet, the group said its member carriers, which include the four largest U.S. airlines, are averaging just 17 passengers per domestic flight and 29 passengers per international flight."
https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/co...travel-decline
Shouldn't have to worry about social distancing at this rate.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/co...travel-decline
Shouldn't have to worry about social distancing at this rate.
OTOH, US carriers are required to fly a number of routes as well as pay crew whether they fly or not as well as ground staff under the terms of the airline bailout.
Many of these carriers have take-or-pay contracts for more fuel than they're now using and all have plenty of surplus aircraft available so nothing is going to need anything more than minor line maintenance. They'll just either use up old equipment close to retirement or rotate aircraft in and out of storage or both.
Most of us won't return to air travel until we've either had a positive antibody test, a vaccination or an effective medical treatment is identified and proven in use.
Would be a nice time to fly but most of us remain too risk-averse to try it.
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TSA year over year passenger count as of May 8 was about 8.3% of last years May 8 numbers.
March 1 numbers at 99% (2.3 million) .
Mid March - 59% (1.25 million) .
April 1 - 6.9% (136,000)
The numbers bottomed out mid April at about 3.9% (87,000).
May 1 - 6.74% (171,000) and now at 8.5% (215,000)
Just typing that makes me ill.
March 1 numbers at 99% (2.3 million) .
Mid March - 59% (1.25 million) .
April 1 - 6.9% (136,000)
The numbers bottomed out mid April at about 3.9% (87,000).
May 1 - 6.74% (171,000) and now at 8.5% (215,000)
Just typing that makes me ill.
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The economics of airlines, being so asset-heavy with leased equipment and ongoing maintenance, puts them in the position of not being able to scale up and down easily or park all the aircraft, so the only short-term solution is to continue a sort of forced musical chairs, flying aircraft with a virus mitigation strategy, while they unravel the extra assets to right size the airline for at a minimum, another flu season. Regardless of where the broader economy goes, airlines are going to have to shrink to a level where it will take them years to achieve what will be seen in the future as the glory days of 2019.
The TSA screening numbers are on the rise. As the economy opens, it requires business travel and the screening values reflect that. The airlines have also quickly adapted. 7-8 flights a day between two hubs yield low pax counts, drop that to 2-3 a day and the values go up. My DH on 787 DFW-LAX a few days back was 2/3rds full.
From the low of 87,534 screenings on 4/14/2020 to the high since then of 215,444 on 5/8/2020 shows a early, positive trend.
A friend owns a company that has a machine that uses water jets to cut parts. It’s been broken since about the start of Covid19. Finally the technician from New Jersey is flying out to fix it. Business travel isn’t all suits who have the option of zooming instead, it takes a persons traveling to keep businesses moving.
From the low of 87,534 screenings on 4/14/2020 to the high since then of 215,444 on 5/8/2020 shows a early, positive trend.
A friend owns a company that has a machine that uses water jets to cut parts. It’s been broken since about the start of Covid19. Finally the technician from New Jersey is flying out to fix it. Business travel isn’t all suits who have the option of zooming instead, it takes a persons traveling to keep businesses moving.
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I have concerns that my local favorite regional airport may become cargo only. Two of the four majors have already pulled out. Despite an 80% departure reduction (based upon last year), the few remaining flights are only 10-20% full.
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Not sure I would categorize SWA as a ULCC. Occasionally purchase tickets when we have to be somewhere on a particular date, SWA is often more expensive than other carriers.
More think of Frontier, Spirit and Allegiant. Perhaps you get a flight and a chance to watch a fist fight in the flight levels on Spirit.
More think of Frontier, Spirit and Allegiant. Perhaps you get a flight and a chance to watch a fist fight in the flight levels on Spirit.
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The airlines already see the 'mask wars' coming between the pax and crew.
May 12, 2020 / 5:00 PM / Updated 2 hours ago
Tracy Rucinski(Reuters) - The top three U.S. airlines have told their flight attendants not to force passengers to comply with their new policy requiring face coverings, just encourage them to do so, according to employee policies reviewed by Reuters.
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL.O) have told employees that they may deny boarding at the gate to anyone not wearing a face covering, and are providing masks to passengers who do not have them, the three carriers told Reuters.
Inside the plane, enforcement becomes more difficult.
“Once on board and off the gate, the face covering policy becomes more lenient. The flight attendant’s role is informational, not enforcement, with respect to the face covering policy,” American told its pilots in a message seen by Reuters explaining its policy, which went into effect on Monday.
“Bottom line to the pilots: a passenger on board your aircraft who is being compliant with the exception of wearing a face covering is NOT considered disruptive enough to trigger a Threat Level 1 response,” referring to some kind of intentional disruption by a passenger that could cause the captain to divert the flight.
American spokesman Joshua Freed said: “American, like other U.S. airlines, requires customers to wear a face covering while on board, and this requirement is enforced at the gate while boarding. We also remind customers with announcements both during boarding and at departure.”
A United spokeswoman also said that any non-compliance by travelers would be addressed at the gate and that flight attendants had been counseled to use their “de-escalation skills” on the aircraft and to reseat any passengers as needed.
Delta said it had a similar policy.
“If the customer chooses not to comply for other reasons, please encourage them to comply, but do not escalate further,” American told flight attendants in a message on Friday that it provided to Reuters.
“Likewise, if a customer is frustrated by another customer’s lack of face covering, please use situational awareness to de-escalate the situation,” it said.
U.S. travel demand has fallen by about 94% in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, prompting carriers to slash their flying schedules to roughly 30% of normal this month. With fewer planes in the skies, some are flying near capacity.
Global airlines body IATA came out last week in favor of passengers wearing masks onboard, as debate intensifies in the United States on the role that government agencies should play in mandating new safety measures for flying before a vaccine is developed.
While major U.S. airlines have individually mandated facial coverings, the Federal Aviation Administration has declined to implement the requirement, and it is not clear if the agency has the authority to compel passengers to wear face masks.
In a statement on Tuesday, the FAA said it would continue to engage in discussions about protecting the health and safety of flight crews and the traveling public and was “lending aviation expertise to federal public health agencies and airlines as they issue guidance for crew members, including health monitoring, screening protocols and aircraft cleaning.”
Several airline union groups have called for a federal mandate on measures including masks, social distancing and cleaning.
“Airlines are implementing policies on the fly with essentially no coordination or direction from the federal government,” said Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, representing nearly 50,000 flight attendants at 19 airlines.
“We need federal requirements that mitigate risk during this pandemic and put the safety of crews and the traveling public first.”
Exclusive: U.S. airlines tell crews not to force passengers to wear masks
Tracy Rucinski(Reuters) - The top three U.S. airlines have told their flight attendants not to force passengers to comply with their new policy requiring face coverings, just encourage them to do so, according to employee policies reviewed by Reuters.
American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL.O) have told employees that they may deny boarding at the gate to anyone not wearing a face covering, and are providing masks to passengers who do not have them, the three carriers told Reuters.
Inside the plane, enforcement becomes more difficult.
“Once on board and off the gate, the face covering policy becomes more lenient. The flight attendant’s role is informational, not enforcement, with respect to the face covering policy,” American told its pilots in a message seen by Reuters explaining its policy, which went into effect on Monday.
“Bottom line to the pilots: a passenger on board your aircraft who is being compliant with the exception of wearing a face covering is NOT considered disruptive enough to trigger a Threat Level 1 response,” referring to some kind of intentional disruption by a passenger that could cause the captain to divert the flight.
American spokesman Joshua Freed said: “American, like other U.S. airlines, requires customers to wear a face covering while on board, and this requirement is enforced at the gate while boarding. We also remind customers with announcements both during boarding and at departure.”
A United spokeswoman also said that any non-compliance by travelers would be addressed at the gate and that flight attendants had been counseled to use their “de-escalation skills” on the aircraft and to reseat any passengers as needed.
Delta said it had a similar policy.
‘ENCOURAGE THEM TO COMPLY’
All three airlines offer certain exemptions for young children or people with medical conditions or disabilities, and when people are eating or drinking.“If the customer chooses not to comply for other reasons, please encourage them to comply, but do not escalate further,” American told flight attendants in a message on Friday that it provided to Reuters.
“Likewise, if a customer is frustrated by another customer’s lack of face covering, please use situational awareness to de-escalate the situation,” it said.
U.S. travel demand has fallen by about 94% in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, prompting carriers to slash their flying schedules to roughly 30% of normal this month. With fewer planes in the skies, some are flying near capacity.
Global airlines body IATA came out last week in favor of passengers wearing masks onboard, as debate intensifies in the United States on the role that government agencies should play in mandating new safety measures for flying before a vaccine is developed.
While major U.S. airlines have individually mandated facial coverings, the Federal Aviation Administration has declined to implement the requirement, and it is not clear if the agency has the authority to compel passengers to wear face masks.
In a statement on Tuesday, the FAA said it would continue to engage in discussions about protecting the health and safety of flight crews and the traveling public and was “lending aviation expertise to federal public health agencies and airlines as they issue guidance for crew members, including health monitoring, screening protocols and aircraft cleaning.”
Several airline union groups have called for a federal mandate on measures including masks, social distancing and cleaning.
“Airlines are implementing policies on the fly with essentially no coordination or direction from the federal government,” said Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, representing nearly 50,000 flight attendants at 19 airlines.
“We need federal requirements that mitigate risk during this pandemic and put the safety of crews and the traveling public first.”
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An update on the crewing situation at United from this Reuters article:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN22R2MJ
May 15, 2020 / 12:19 PM /
Exclusive: United Airlines only needs 3,000 of 25,000 flight attendants in June - sources
Tracy Rucinski(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL.O) has told staff that it only has work for about 3,000 of its about 25,000 flight attendants in June, sources said, and warned of job losses if demand does not recover by the time government payroll aid expires in the fall.
United is paying flight attendants until Sept. 30 thanks largely to $5 billion the airline is receiving in government payroll aid under the CARES Act, which prohibits any job or pay cuts for employees before October.
Chicago-based United and other airlines have begun to share more details with employees about the scale of their dilemma in trying to match crews and fleets to an uncertain recovery from the economic crisis sparked by the new coronavirus pandemic, which has sent the global economy into a tailspin.
United’s flying schedule is down by about 90%. It and other U.S. airlines have slashed the number of flights and are scrambling to reduce a collective $10 billion monthly cash burn.
“If you just look at a way in which our network is flying we’d need about 3,000 flight attendants to fly our schedule for June,” United’s managing director of inflight crew resourcing, Michael Sasse told staff last week, according to people who listened to an employee briefing call.
That number cannot be extrapolated to the company’s potential staffing needs going forward, he said, adding that United does not want to cut deeper than needed and is still trying to get a better picture of how demand will evolve.
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) told its 14,500 pilots on Thursday that it expects to have 7,000 more than it needs in the fall, according to a memo first reported by Reuters.
United President Scott Kirby told investors this month he intends to keep the flying schedule at around 10% of normal until demand recovers.
“But if demand remains significantly diminished on Oct. 1, we simply won’t be able to endure this crisis ... without implementing some of the more difficult and painful actions,” said Kirby, who takes over as CEO next week.
Exclusive: United Airlines only needs 3,000 of 25,000 flight attendants in June - sources
Tracy Rucinski(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL.O) has told staff that it only has work for about 3,000 of its about 25,000 flight attendants in June, sources said, and warned of job losses if demand does not recover by the time government payroll aid expires in the fall.
United is paying flight attendants until Sept. 30 thanks largely to $5 billion the airline is receiving in government payroll aid under the CARES Act, which prohibits any job or pay cuts for employees before October.
Chicago-based United and other airlines have begun to share more details with employees about the scale of their dilemma in trying to match crews and fleets to an uncertain recovery from the economic crisis sparked by the new coronavirus pandemic, which has sent the global economy into a tailspin.
United’s flying schedule is down by about 90%. It and other U.S. airlines have slashed the number of flights and are scrambling to reduce a collective $10 billion monthly cash burn.
“If you just look at a way in which our network is flying we’d need about 3,000 flight attendants to fly our schedule for June,” United’s managing director of inflight crew resourcing, Michael Sasse told staff last week, according to people who listened to an employee briefing call.
That number cannot be extrapolated to the company’s potential staffing needs going forward, he said, adding that United does not want to cut deeper than needed and is still trying to get a better picture of how demand will evolve.
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) told its 14,500 pilots on Thursday that it expects to have 7,000 more than it needs in the fall, according to a memo first reported by Reuters.
United President Scott Kirby told investors this month he intends to keep the flying schedule at around 10% of normal until demand recovers.
“But if demand remains significantly diminished on Oct. 1, we simply won’t be able to endure this crisis ... without implementing some of the more difficult and painful actions,” said Kirby, who takes over as CEO next week.
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business plan please
We want to fly between AMS, LAX and JFK because that is were our close family is.
In the current situation we will not be buying tickets, because there is no telling what the experience will be.
We are waiting for a thorough, rigorous, enforced proposition from the airlines that:
- guarantees that we will not be infected,
- makes us believe the guarantee.
We don't mind paying a multiple of last year's price, if that is what it takes - we will adjust the frequency of trips as well as our flying budget.
Sofar the airlines seem to have no idea.
In the current situation we will not be buying tickets, because there is no telling what the experience will be.
We are waiting for a thorough, rigorous, enforced proposition from the airlines that:
- guarantees that we will not be infected,
- makes us believe the guarantee.
We don't mind paying a multiple of last year's price, if that is what it takes - we will adjust the frequency of trips as well as our flying budget.
Sofar the airlines seem to have no idea.
Last edited by jan99; 16th May 2020 at 15:50. Reason: language
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We are waiting for a thorough, rigorous, enforced proposal from the airlines that:
- guarantees that we will not be infected,
- makes us believe the guarantee.
- guarantees that we will not be infected,
- makes us believe the guarantee.
If you want a guarantee, buy the plane! I now do my local business travel in one of my planes - guarantee no infectious person in the plane with me!
It's not getting any friendlier for passengers. My brother is flying HSV to SEA in late June. Here's what happened to him; I quote his email to me
This is all on United Airlines:
Originally, I was scheduled to fly HSV to ORD to SEA on 6/26.
United cancelled flights and rerouted me HSV to IAH to DEN to SEA. Hopefully this will hold up.
If you try to book a flight for the same date (on United), these are the only routing options available:
HSV-IAH-SFO-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-TUS-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-SAN-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-SNA-DEN-SEA
and so on. Basically, they're trying to get to the DEN-SEA flight any which way that they can. It looks like all of the nonstop flights from Houston and Chicago to Seattle are either too early in the morning or have been taken off the schedule. Pricewise, it has gotten really costly, too. To fly on those dates (6/26-7/14) on United now is around $1000.00 for economy seats.
Of course, there are other options available with other airlines but I had a credit with United that I wanted to use.
Originally, I was scheduled to fly HSV to ORD to SEA on 6/26.
United cancelled flights and rerouted me HSV to IAH to DEN to SEA. Hopefully this will hold up.
If you try to book a flight for the same date (on United), these are the only routing options available:
HSV-IAH-SFO-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-TUS-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-SAN-DEN-SEA
HSV-IAH-SNA-DEN-SEA
and so on. Basically, they're trying to get to the DEN-SEA flight any which way that they can. It looks like all of the nonstop flights from Houston and Chicago to Seattle are either too early in the morning or have been taken off the schedule. Pricewise, it has gotten really costly, too. To fly on those dates (6/26-7/14) on United now is around $1000.00 for economy seats.
Of course, there are other options available with other airlines but I had a credit with United that I wanted to use.
I hope your brother understands UA is in survival mode as are other airlines. Trying to provide a service while also trying to ensure the survival of the company. That’s an unhappy balance for both the airline and the passenger, I get it.
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What will keep me from flying? The fact that to go east coast to Idaho, I'd have to sleep in O'Hare, Philadelphia, or Charlotte overnight to get there with no return itinerary available. At that point, I start thinking about an RV and to heck with flying for personal reasons since I don't have my own aircraft - nothing open anyway at the other end. The gov't can still send me TDY, but I'll do so reluctantly since there is nobody on the far end to work with either.