14 day quarantine
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...y-tatters.html
I'm sure there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth because of where it was published, but the author of this article is someone who knows what he's talking about. The lamentable, weak non-decision making by government is leading us towards a situation which may not be recoverable if it continues for much longer.
I'm sure there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth because of where it was published, but the author of this article is someone who knows what he's talking about. The lamentable, weak non-decision making by government is leading us towards a situation which may not be recoverable if it continues for much longer.
However, this time it might just be.
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There's also another side to the problem. How many countries grant admission to arrivals from the UK now, bar their own nationals who are mandated to quarantine after arrival from the UK? I can think of a good few who don't let in anyone other then their nationals, let alone arrivals from what sadly became one of the countries with the worst epidemic profile in Europe.
My annual policy came up for renewal recently, and basically it was impossible to renew unless I accepted no cover for any existing conditions, even those previously declared (or I could go through a new med screening, at a call centre that wasn't taking calls). SAFI cover was also gone, but worse was a new clause that COVID was not covered at all, for anything, not just cancellation or curtailment but no medical cover either. Not just no medical cover if you get it (or get it again) but no medical cover for anything related to COVID as a pre-existing condition. Since the long term effects of COVID are not known (which is why they won't cover it) and it does damage (by direct viral attack, by oxygen deprivation and by blood clots) to potentially _any_ organ, any of which could cause problems at any time, basically if you fall ill you won't be covered unless either you can prove it was solely down to something else or prove you have never had COVID. The very people who ought to feel safest travelling, those who have already had it, will have to travel effectively without medical cover.
I reckon these clauses, and the renewal refusals, will be temporary, 12 - 18 months when more is known about the global prevalence and the long term risks of having had it, and I think they'll be gone - but it is going to be a very tough couple of years for aviation and travel industries. I certainly don't see things bouncing back this summer, or winter.
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Really, go enforce it. US has a federalist system of government which places the majority of relevent law enforcement in the states hands. The fed could order a nationwide lockdown, but it would be up to the states/cities to enforce it. Not going to happen. The federal government has left it up to the states to determine individual lockdown methods after reviewing federal law. In some cases cities write their own rules (NYC for example). Above that, corporations and the federal gov't agencies themselves have the ability to set there own guidelines locally. Last week Microsoft sent everyone home. This week Google. Want to travel on business from Massachusetts to Texas? Arrive in TX and self-quarantine for 14 days before being allowed to enter workplace. Return to MA? Self- quarantine for another 14 days. Return to NH instead, go to work in MA the next day. Ask the governor of Rhode Island what happened when she tried to block entry of vehicles from NY into RI. Didn't work.
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Corona virus and antibody tests before boarding should resolve the issue ( I understand they now have "quick" tests for both), allowing to fully populate the airplanes seats safely...
If the tests are reliable enough and accepted by the destination authorities just factor the costs in the ticket price...
It will the cheaper alternative, also explore the possibility of government subsidies for such tests.
And voila the airline industry is saved !! (WELL.... easier said than done) to be continued...
Of course there is always the possibility of being "freshly" exposed at the airport counter or the taxi
...
If the tests are reliable enough and accepted by the destination authorities just factor the costs in the ticket price...
It will the cheaper alternative, also explore the possibility of government subsidies for such tests.
And voila the airline industry is saved !! (WELL.... easier said than done) to be continued...
Of course there is always the possibility of being "freshly" exposed at the airport counter or the taxi
...
Not that simple Melax. The antibody test shows if you have had it. Probably only 10-15% of the population, and not all get antibodies, so would stop over 90% flying. We can do PCR - the swabs - but they take 4 hours and have a false negative rate of 40%...So they wont keep crew or other passengers safe
As we reopen hospital we plan to enforce 10-14 days quarantine, then do aquestionnaire, then a PCR swab, and then 2 days later admit, check temperature and examine the chest. All that will only give 97.5% pickup although most of the remaining 2.5% will probably not be that infectious....However we doctors and nurses will still wear full PPE
So even if you could get people to quarantine for 2 weeks and had somewhere to do the tests it still wont be foolproof......I dont see how you canmatch the level of safety we will apply to hospitals where patients are under pressure to take a risk for their cancer or hernia.
As we reopen hospital we plan to enforce 10-14 days quarantine, then do aquestionnaire, then a PCR swab, and then 2 days later admit, check temperature and examine the chest. All that will only give 97.5% pickup although most of the remaining 2.5% will probably not be that infectious....However we doctors and nurses will still wear full PPE
So even if you could get people to quarantine for 2 weeks and had somewhere to do the tests it still wont be foolproof......I dont see how you canmatch the level of safety we will apply to hospitals where patients are under pressure to take a risk for their cancer or hernia.
Hmm, I have different info, Abbott's PCR test returns results in less than 5 Minutes (Mesabiotech 30mins / Cepheid 45mins), 70%(Abbott) accuracy, so a combination of different tests should reduce the error rate to an acceptable level . Time to get results is not the issue, the antibody test is useful if indeed it is proven that reinfection is impossible or extremely low and they cannot be carriers / spreaders so in fact immunized.
I'm sure scientists can figure this out
On a side note (sarcasm) It would be nice if scanning people thru a UVC source was safe to kill newly topically exposed humans, unfortunately it seems to be very dangerous. That's how they disinfect buses(empty) in China.
I'm sure scientists can figure this out
On a side note (sarcasm) It would be nice if scanning people thru a UVC source was safe to kill newly topically exposed humans, unfortunately it seems to be very dangerous. That's how they disinfect buses(empty
) in China.
Last edited by Melax; 10th May 2020 at 20:32.
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I'm more confused now than I was before - there might be a 14 day quarantine at some point in the future but it wont apply to anyone flying in from Ireland or France. Given that France has one of the worst Covid19 problems in Europe then what is the science behind this decision?
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Ireland is still regarded as being “part of the family” per se re the British Isles. Internal flights in other words, not international.
Appreciate fully the irony of the UK being in the EU as regards to internal vs international flights but there you go.
Appreciate fully the irony of the UK being in the EU as regards to internal vs international flights but there you go.
I'm more confused now than I was before - there might be a 14 day quarantine at some point in the future but it wont apply to anyone flying in from Ireland or France. Given that France has one of the worst Covid19 problems in Europe then what is the science behind this decision?
I think one of the big worries the French Government have, and have expressed quite strongly in recent weeks, is the UK's awful Covid-19 problem and the risk of travellers from the UK bringing the virus into France....so I'm just as puzzled by the the idea of "free" travel between the UK and France as you are- or maybe the French will maintain their fairly draconian inbound restrictions on individuals travelling from the UK..we will see.
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Looking a wordometer for yesterday , UK has 220.000 cases and 4000 new ones last 24h , France has 180.000 cases but only 300 new cases yesterday , 170.000 and 500 new cases in Germany .
So this indicates clearly the pandemic has not yet peaked in the UK and lifting restrictions will only make matter worse. If I was a UK resident I would not be worried about air passengers coming from France or Germany ...but those coming on domestic flights ..
So this indicates clearly the pandemic has not yet peaked in the UK and lifting restrictions will only make matter worse. If I was a UK resident I would not be worried about air passengers coming from France or Germany ...but those coming on domestic flights ..
Not that simple Melax. The antibody test shows if you have had it. Probably only 10-15% of the population, and not all get antibodies, so would stop over 90% flying. We can do PCR - the swabs - but they take 4 hours and have a false negative rate of 40%...So they wont keep crew or other passengers safe
As we reopen hospital we plan to enforce 10-14 days quarantine, then do aquestionnaire, then a PCR swab, and then 2 days later admit, check temperature and examine the chest. All that will only give 97.5% pickup although most of the remaining 2.5% will probably not be that infectious....However we doctors and nurses will still wear full PPE
So even if you could get people to quarantine for 2 weeks and had somewhere to do the tests it still wont be foolproof......I dont see how you canmatch the level of safety we will apply to hospitals where patients are under pressure to take a risk for their cancer or hernia.
As we reopen hospital we plan to enforce 10-14 days quarantine, then do aquestionnaire, then a PCR swab, and then 2 days later admit, check temperature and examine the chest. All that will only give 97.5% pickup although most of the remaining 2.5% will probably not be that infectious....However we doctors and nurses will still wear full PPE
So even if you could get people to quarantine for 2 weeks and had somewhere to do the tests it still wont be foolproof......I dont see how you canmatch the level of safety we will apply to hospitals where patients are under pressure to take a risk for their cancer or hernia.
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Looking a wordometer for yesterday , UK has 220.000 cases and 4000 new ones last 24h , France has 180.000 cases but only 300 new cases yesterday , 170.000 and 500 new cases in Germany .
So this indicates clearly the pandemic has not yet peaked in the UK and lifting restrictions will only make matter worse. If I was a UK resident I would not be worried about air passengers coming from France or Germany ...but those coming on domestic flights ..
So this indicates clearly the pandemic has not yet peaked in the UK and lifting restrictions will only make matter worse. If I was a UK resident I would not be worried about air passengers coming from France or Germany ...but those coming on domestic flights ..
UK is in the top of global per-capita mortality rate it stands to reason that UK must be in the top for infection rate too (assuming a roughly equivalent mortality rate from infection). If our visitor is not from Belgium or Spain, then they are statistically less likely than a UK resident to have or transmit C19. Why quarantine them? Surely they are safer.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Figures aren't comparable. It will probably be years before we know the true statistics.
In the UK the total includes all hospital, care home and home deaths where the doctor has indicated COVID as a cause. In France the count those who die in hospital and care homes, but not home deaths. In Spain they only count those who have tested positive for coronavirus.
It would also seem Germany's widely praised low figures may not have included many tens of thousands in their care homes.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/202.../care-a10.html
In the UK the total includes all hospital, care home and home deaths where the doctor has indicated COVID as a cause. In France the count those who die in hospital and care homes, but not home deaths. In Spain they only count those who have tested positive for coronavirus.
It would also seem Germany's widely praised low figures may not have included many tens of thousands in their care homes.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/202.../care-a10.html
Germany also declare cases with co-morbidities slightly differently. For example, if we had a palliative patient with Covid19 who died due to their underlying pathology, for example cancer; it would still be declared as a Covid19 death. In Germany it would not.
Interesting post there OLAC from the World Socialist Web Site, which I must admit I have never heard of and suspect may not be totally unbiased. It makes some interesting points particularly about the lack of testing, and I have had similar thoughts about the numbers in Germany. That there is some delay in reporting and some genuine difficulties where you draw the line on comorbidities in undisputed. However having done a bit of research I have found clear evidence that care home cases are being included in the German statistics being produced by the Robert Koch Institute, with the obvious caveat that they can only include those that are known about. As I posted on Coronavirus:the thread in Jet Blast yesterday analysing the RKI situation report for yesterday 10 May 2020:
Of the 13,708 residents of care homes in Germany reported as infected 2,708 have died, so about 20% mortality of those tested positive.
I have also seen the excess mortality figures for the three weeks up to mid April for Germany. These show an increase of 10% in the seasonally adjusted deaths. So at least up till then the scale of excess mortality was dramatically lower than the recent ONS data for the UK. This is not to say that there is no problem. But deaths in care homes officially make up more than a third of the total 7,500 in Germany so far reported. So I think we can safely conclude that they are included.
Of the 13,708 residents of care homes in Germany reported as infected 2,708 have died, so about 20% mortality of those tested positive.
I have also seen the excess mortality figures for the three weeks up to mid April for Germany. These show an increase of 10% in the seasonally adjusted deaths. So at least up till then the scale of excess mortality was dramatically lower than the recent ONS data for the UK. This is not to say that there is no problem. But deaths in care homes officially make up more than a third of the total 7,500 in Germany so far reported. So I think we can safely conclude that they are included.
Last edited by lederhosen; 11th May 2020 at 12:05.
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NoelEvans :
Maybe reading a bit more scientific information would prevent you to make such statements . Short term and long term are very different things . .
Here below some reading for a rainy day .
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/8163/2019/
Regarding the 'environment':
Here below some reading for a rainy day .
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/8163/2019/