Flights into the UK...

[Gordomac]

Here in sunny Cyprus they locked down quickly and followed with even firmer restrictions. Airport closed, ostensibly as Freight allowed and repatriation allowed but for inbound, almost made impossible by the requirement to obtain ,practically unobtainable, medical certificates. Even if you did make it back, straight to Government controlled 14 day quarantine. And yet, in dear ole Blighty, mate's wife, back from some time in Qatar, walzes into LHR on a QR flight without a sneeze. Pardon the pun. I have yet to ask my mate who else and from where were the other pax . As Radgirl says, too little, too late but I would suggest ; no action whatsoever. Shaming. Unless the New World Order know something they are not yet telling us. eh ?

[PeterWeb]

Originally Posted by n5296s

Even the mortality rate for over-80s overlooks the fact that for every "confirmed" case there are probably 50 or more that never come to the attention of the authorities because people are either asymptomatic or follow current UK advice, take an aspirin and stay home.

I'm sorry, but that furphy is losing its legs. Two recent reports greatly discount the likelihood of lots of unreported cases generating the current levels of hospitalisation and death, and also getting every country well along the road to herd immunity. It would be rather nice if it was true, but it's increasingly clear that it isn't.

The reports are of virus levels found in sewage in the Netherlands in recent months, and antibody testing of an entire well-connected community in Colorado. More details and consequences discussed here:

https://webcentre.co.nz/pandemic

For argument's sake you can have two to one if you like, perhaps even four to one, because testing numbers are so low, especially in the UK. You definitely can't have 50 to one.

[PeterWeb]

Originally Posted by anothertyke

Until we have random sampling stratified by location, age and gender we cannot possibly know where we are with this thing. First requirement for an exit strategy is to know where you are.

I agree. It's true we're still very much in the "information gathering" stage, but things are slowly starting to crystallize. I doubt many governments in March felt confident enough to risk their population by choosing between the mild/extremely-widespread and dangerous/containable theories, so most opted for acting as if the latter was true. The main thing the lockdowns have bought us is time to learn more, and to work out how best to defeat - or live with - this thing.

As more extensive PCR testing (in some places) and now antibody testing starts to come online, things are steadily going to become a lot clearer. Likewise with the treatment results from various developed-economy hospital systems, with their typical populations. Whether good, bad or indifferent.

With that information, governments will start trying to figure out ways to come out of severe lockdowns while they still have viable economies - but without killing off significant chunks of their populations and laying waste to their health systems. Unfortunately, the data that's accumulating suggests it's not going to be the easiest scenarios.

Honestly, I don't think it would have been possible to develop, let alone publish an exit strategy before now. And now is probably still a little too soon for any plan to be solid. So for a while yet there's going to be a lot more uncertainty and improvisation than any of us are used to, or happy to tolerate.

But this is 2020 and this is the world we live in. And because we're human, hence very adaptable, and because we have no choice, we'll adapt.

[marchino61]

Originally Posted by PeterWeb

The reports are of virus levels found in sewage in the Netherlands in recent months, and antibody testing of an entire well-connected community in Colorado. More details and consequences discussed here:

https://webcentre.co.nz/pandemic

For argument's sake you can have two to one if you like, perhaps even four to one, because testing numbers are so low, especially in the UK. You definitely can't have 50 to one.

At the top of the cited web page:

Disclaimer: I'm an interested engineer, not a doctor or epidemiologist

So why would I take any notice of that source?

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by marchino61

So why would I take any notice of that source?

Because the numbers he uses are readily verifiable ?

If all else fails, try the 30+ references that he cites at the end of the paper.

[Anti Skid On]

Originally Posted by Herod

If a hundred people can get off a plane and go home by whatever means, why am I only going out twice a day, and then staying at least 2 m away from everyone, even my neighbours? Joined-up thinking seems to be in short supply

Have you seen the PM that England elected (I deliberately said England, as the other bits of the UK didn't really want him)

[Espada III]

There are still some Brits abroad who want to come home but can't because flights don't exist and they were not able to return at the time flights did exist. I am one of those, stuck in Israel, caring for an elderly and recently cancer diagnosed parent. The situation now being stable and with a care package in place, I am now able to leave; but unless I take a 44+ hour trip from TLV to EWR, EWR to LHR and LHR to Manchester I have no option until other routes reopen. Do I want to spend all that time in aeroplanes, and in an airport terminal (17 hours stuck in Newark with the virus coursing around New York...); not really.

So please think before suggesting airports and borders should be closed. I want to get home..

[Radgirl]

Valid point Espada III so let me put some meat on my argument of closing borders until we can vaccinate.

We are where we are

We need to have borders closed in the UK when we reduce lockdown. Until then it may be prolonging the lockdown and increasing deaths, but after that it makes the difference between getting back to a degree of normality or getting a second wave

If closure is agreed policy, we need to tell all Britons abroad they have say 6 weeks to get home or then stay abroad for a protracted time. We need to ramp up repatriation flights but over the next 6 weeks. If the aviation industry works with the FCO it is doable

And then look after travel industries who will be in dire straights.

[marchino61]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

Because the numbers he uses are readily verifiable ?

If all else fails, try the 30+ references that he cites at the end of the paper.

I looked at the references. Most are just web pages. Why would I take a reddit reference seriously?

[Herod]

Espada III. I have to agree with Radgirl. I don't see any problem repatriating people, but then they must be in quarantine. Other countries are doing exactly that.

We're even getting the situation now that, because of idiots flouting the social distancing rules, the government is talking about prohibiting exercise outside the home. What a few weeks of that will do for mental health, I shudder to even think.

[Compton3fox]

Originally Posted by Paul852

Because you are, apparently, 73.

The much more sensible course of action is to isolate as far as possible the 20% of the population who are at increased risk (albeit not much higher than the risk of dying this year anyway), whilst the 80% for whom the risk is not great at all just get on with their lives and develop immunity.

This was what Boris wanted to do until, most amusingly, having just got Brexit done, he was talked out of it by Macron and Merkel.

So this graph is saying you have roughly the same chance of dying of C19 as you do of dying of all other things. So, you have roughly double the chance you did last year, of dying if you are late 50's or over and male. It's like buying 2 lottery tickets, you double you chances of winning by doing so.

[Radgirl]

The covid-19 death rate is for an assumed incidence in the population - I suspect under 10% of the population. So it isnt comparing like with like. It is comparing the risk of death from SARS-CoV19 locked down against the risk of death from other causes in normal times

If you get the virus, the death rate is far far higher. Initially China said 1-2% but their figures are incredible. In Europe they are running at high single figures. In the UK early reports suggest 50% death rates on ITU. So if you go with the herd immunity nonsense in the UK, try to get 70% of the country infected and effectively kill 500,000 to 3,283,000 of your fellow citizens, you need to redraw the graph completely. And then get locked up or sent to the funny farm.

[Sallyann1234]

The Imperial College work, upon which so much of the government's reaction is based, seems to be coming under increasing question as to its value.

But I suppose if the Covid situation does get entirely out of control Boris will have someone to blame.

[Denti]

Originally Posted by Radgirl

If you get the virus, the death rate is far far higher. Initially China said 1-2% but their figures are incredible. In Europe they are running at high single figures. In the UK early reports suggest 50% death rates on ITU. So if you go with the herd immunity nonsense in the UK, try to get 70% of the country infected and effectively kill 500,000 to 3,283,000 of your fellow citizens, you need to redraw the graph completely. And then get locked up or sent to the funny farm.

The death rates depend on testing though. Germany had initially a death rate well below 1%, as the first wave was mostly younger and fit persons. It has since risen, but is still well below 2%. But of course that is only the case as there is quite a bit of testing being done, which is not the case in the UK for example. A surprisingly high number of infected persons do not show any symptoms, or very light symptoms which many simply do not identify if they are not tested. Therefore it is imperative to develop fast and widespread antibody testing to get a real idea how many have had Covid-19.

[ericlday]

Flights into UK
I am currently in Tenerife after having flights cancelled, one by Ryanair (refund on the way) and the next by Easyjet (no refund currently offered).Today we are starting our 4th week of controlled lock down with Police and Army patrolling, stopping people at various road junctions and issuing substantial fines for not obeying the rules (600€)
It has brought results in that the peak number of cases reported on 26/3 have been decreasing daily (yesterdays new cases 25) At this stage I am not interested in rushing back to the UK where different rules have brought (so far) different results.
When......thats a big word......flights resume to the UK I will need to seriously consider whether I want to head back home.

[daved123]

On Thursday in Toulouse an 18yo guy was sentenced to one month in prison - firm - and fined after being stopped in the street for a 4th time without a signed 'attestation' (name/DOB/currently living at/dated and signed) with one of seven tick-boxes giving reason for being outside, getting supplies for his joints not being one of the seven approved essential reasons.
Anyone unable to show good reason for an essential outing or without an attestation gets fined Euro135 on the spot.
Not until the UK gets serious about restrictions will pleading for people to 'stay home' have any effect on the couldn't care less part of the population.
Taking essential exercise (with domestic animals) within 1km of the house and 'social-distancing' is one of the seven tick-boxes.
DaveD

[cashash]

Originally Posted by Sallyann1234

The Imperial College work, upon which so much of the government's reaction is based, seems to be coming under increasing question as to its value.

But I suppose if the Covid situation does get entirely out of control Boris will have someone to blame.

But what model would they use instead?. The Oxford University model suggests that the virus started at least a month before the first reported deaths and have already led to significant herd immunity.

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by cashash

But what model would they use instead?. The Oxford University model suggests that the virus started at least a month before the first reported deaths and have already led to significant herd immunity.

The Oxford and Imperial College models seem to be diametrically opposite in their conclusions, which is pretty worrying.

[Radgirl]

We HAVE to get rid of the herd immunity thesis - see my last post about deaths.

I dont know which Oxford University model you are referring to but the truth is that without testing we simply dont have a clue as to the proportion of the population which is infected. It is more than the current 43,454 but it is unlikely to rise above 10% of the population during lockdown. Full herd immunity is 40 to 70% of the population. So any attempt to use herd immunity / partial lockdown etc condemns an additional 30 to 60% to infection. ie 20 to 40 million with perhaps an additional 200,000 to 4,000,000 additional deaths.

Given lockdown is supposed to limit deaths to 20,000 and to avert 500,000 deaths (Imperial modelling) there is absolutely no benefit in 3 months lockdown and economic destruction if you are then planning herd immunity. So please lets put this suggestion to bed.

[Deltasierra010]

The death rate in Germany is only lower because they calculate the figures differently, in the UK the death rate is low - of those tested, testing is very limited, even doctors and nurses cannot get tested. You only get tested if you are seriously ill and have difficulty breathing, my doctor told me, “take an aspirin and isolate”, there are many times the official figures that have had mild or no symptoms. The virus is widespread, most of us are going to be exposed the government knows this and is trying to slow the spread while hospital capacity is increased. Now we are getting large temporary hospitals like Nightingale the system will cope better, sadly the death rate will increase, there will be cases of young heathy people succumb but the final death rate is likely to be much less than 1%.