Future of the Airlines.
A major risk to airlines in the future will be minimum mandated space per passenger or, if you will, mandated social distancing. The current recommendation in this neck of the woods is 4 square meters per person, which would yield the following maximum capacity for a select few airliners. Please note this does not take into consideration the space needed for galleys and lavatories.
A220-300: 22 pax
A321: 32 pax
787-9: 75 pax
A350-1000: 81 pax
Even if we lower the requirement to 1 or 2 square meters, this will spell the end of commercial aviation as we know it.
A220-300: 22 pax
A321: 32 pax
787-9: 75 pax
A350-1000: 81 pax
Even if we lower the requirement to 1 or 2 square meters, this will spell the end of commercial aviation as we know it.
Thread Starter
Realistically I can see aircraft being allowed to fly with the middle seat in a row of three being empty, ie 120 seats available in a 180 seat A320. Those in window seats board first, then those in aisle seats. Whilst this would be uneconomical it might be sustainable for a short while. Those travelling would only do so if it was absolutely essential and would need to understand the need for a higher than normal fare.
There are some way out of normal fares and routings showing up on the search engines at the moment with all the groundings and restrictions. Results that were previously right down the bottom of the list and you wondered why they even bothered to show them due to the travel time and cost, are now all that's available.
There are some way out of normal fares and routings showing up on the search engines at the moment with all the groundings and restrictions. Results that were previously right down the bottom of the list and you wondered why they even bothered to show them due to the travel time and cost, are now all that's available.
Realistically I can see aircraft being allowed to fly with the middle seat in a row of three being empty, ie 120 seats available in a 180 seat A320. Those in window seats board first, then those in aisle seats. Whilst this would be uneconomical it might be sustainable for a short while. Those travelling would only do so if it was absolutely essential and would need to understand the need for a higher than normal fare.
(edit to add for the non Brits: TfL = Transport for London, the Agency that runs London's tube/bus network..
National Excess...;sorry Express... major Private bus/coach company)
Last edited by wiggy; 31st Mar 2020 at 10:07.
It would be fair to say that we have no idea what rules will come into force, but Aviation Authorities and transport Ministers have a habit of imposing restrictions on travellers in order to do something about a threat or to be seen to be doing something, for example the 100ml restriction on fluids carried on board.
I doubt very much that we will go back to business as usual
I doubt very much that we will go back to business as usual
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The Covid-19 global "stay-at-home" lock-downs has amplified the work-from-home concept. More people are embracing the concept of less travel. The new bliss is to live, work and play at a nice place where you don't have to fly away from. Cargo flights will boom, but passenger flights will sharply decline in this global recession.
1A occupied / 1B empty / 1C empty __ 1D occupied / 1E empty / 1F empty
2A empty / 2B empty / 2C occupied __ 2D empty / 2E empty / 2F occupied
etc., effectively reducing capacity to 1/6 of normal, equivalent to around 30 pax on an A320 / 737-800.
So when all this is over (fingers crossed) the idea being proposed here is that somebody who for example has travelled for the best part of an hour on a crowded poorly ventilated Piccadilly line tube train from say Kings Cross to Heathrow is suddenly entitled to (in relative terms ) oceans of space when they get on board an aircraft..or is the thinking that the likes of TfL, National Express et. al. are also going to rigidly enforce social distancing when we come out of the far side of this pandemic?
(edit to add for the non Brits: TfL = Transport for London, the Agency that runs London's tube/bus network..
National Excess...;sorry Express... major Private bus/coach company)
(edit to add for the non Brits: TfL = Transport for London, the Agency that runs London's tube/bus network..
National Excess...;sorry Express... major Private bus/coach company)
(edit to add for the none Danes: I agree; it's absolutely ridiculous to insert local references to public transport on an international discussion board).
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The same is true for business travel. Yes, a (voice or video) conference is an alternative that is sometimes acceptable, but every once in a while you just need to meetup to maintain a good relationship. People are social animals and technology is just not the same.
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The biggest problem I see with business travel getting back to previous levels in the short to medium term is the ability of companies to get insurance that covers Covid19 for their staff when travelling. If available its going to be very expensive unless a 'cure' is found within a year or two.
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There was a almost total shutdown after 9/11. After some time business was back to normal. I doubt it will be different this time. With regards to home working I enjoyed saving the fuel costs for not driving to the airport and back. On the downside I realised that there was a danger of losing social contacts. You are ( almost automatically ) out of the game when it comes to new jobs, which often are given through networking. There were people who took advantage of it. Although it made sense, working at home, looking back I would not do it again.
It's somewhat bizarre to suggest that the authorities should enforce social distancing on passenger flights when it already seems pretty much impossible to meaningfully and rigidly enforce such a policy anywhere else on the entire journey from departure to destination...
https://aviationweek.com/air-transpo...5-analysts-say"A 40% drop in global revenue passenger miles followed by a rapid snap-back and leveling out of 5% year-over-year growth starting in 2023 would cut near-term new-aircraft demand about 25% from pre-coronavirus pandemic estimates, Vertical Research Partners analysts conclude.
Vertical plugged a 40% traffic decline into its model for 2020, with rebounds of 19% next year and 10% in 2022, the company said in a Mar. 30 research note. Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.
On a percentage basis, the reduction would hit narrowbodies and widebodies equally, reducing demand for each category by about 25%. Vertical’s revised analysis shows airlines would need 1,540 fewer narrowbodies and 380 fewer widebodies. "
There's more in the article
Vertical plugged a 40% traffic decline into its model for 2020, with rebounds of 19% next year and 10% in 2022, the company said in a Mar. 30 research note. Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.
On a percentage basis, the reduction would hit narrowbodies and widebodies equally, reducing demand for each category by about 25%. Vertical’s revised analysis shows airlines would need 1,540 fewer narrowbodies and 380 fewer widebodies. "
There's more in the article
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That said, if our efforts to contain the virus via lockdowns are successful, the numbers will be relatively small because most of us won't have caught it.
Good news from New Zealand for people trying to get to the UK. Malaysian have just scheduled about 10 flights in April Auckland KL tech stop but no deplaning and on to Heathrow at a sensible price rather than that rip off airline whose name I will not mention who have been charging the most outrageous prices ex. New Zealand to return to the UK. Well done Malaysian you have the support and appreciation of all of us stuck in New Zealand in bringing at last some competition back to the market. Thank you
The government is working on a process by which foreign tourists can be safely gathered into embarkation points - Auckland and Christchurch, possibly RNZAF Base Ohakea - for return to their countries of origin. This will need to eliminate or at least drastically reduce the risk of the passenger and all the service staff (cab & bus drivers, hotel staff, customs & immigration officers, baggage handlers & airport counter staff, domestic flight & cabin crew, etc) they'll have to be in contact with being infected. This is a non-trivial exercise and will be expensive to implement.
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That's all very well for any passengers already in Auckland, the big problem is all the others now that that NZ is in lockdown. There are no domestic flights except for 'essential workers', no intercity buses or trains, and long-distance car travel is very much frowned on.
The government is working on a process by which foreign tourists can be safely gathered into embarkation points - Auckland and Christchurch, possibly RNZAF Base Ohakea - for return to their countries of origin. This will need to eliminate or at least drastically reduce the risk of the passenger and all the service staff (cab & bus drivers, hotel staff, customs & immigration officers, baggage handlers & airport counter staff, domestic flight & cabin crew, etc) they'll have to be in contact with being infected. This is a non-trivial exercise and will be expensive to implement.
The government is working on a process by which foreign tourists can be safely gathered into embarkation points - Auckland and Christchurch, possibly RNZAF Base Ohakea - for return to their countries of origin. This will need to eliminate or at least drastically reduce the risk of the passenger and all the service staff (cab & bus drivers, hotel staff, customs & immigration officers, baggage handlers & airport counter staff, domestic flight & cabin crew, etc) they'll have to be in contact with being infected. This is a non-trivial exercise and will be expensive to implement.
I would like to place on record the extreme kindness and help we have received and continue to do so from the New Zealand people they have been fantastic and we are so grateful.
One point for all you legal experts out there. Have just received a round robin from the chairman of a very well known international airline saying how sorry for cancellations, delays and dropping us all in it etc. It contained the astonishing offer that the unused portions of our tickets will be held as a flight credit on the airline to use by March 21. No mention or offer of a refund instead. My understanding is that in addition to having a duty of care as they cancelled our flights they also MUST offer a full refund for the unused portion of our tickets. Any comments please as I think this is disgraceful.
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It is always better to check facts before spreading news, and not only for the fares....
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It's tough times out there for all of us.