Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

[Bidule]

Originally Posted by krismiler

Privatisation under Mrs Thatcher was a good thing, inefficient state run companies were transformed,

True when you see the condition of the UK railroad system....

[ATC Watcher]

Originally Posted by JRK

how do you pay dividends from losses anyways?
.

Those companies made huge profits in 2019 and , as I understood it, were due to pay large dividends in next months or so, those are the ones in question. .

[Blue-Shamrock 89]

Originally Posted by Bora Bora

Yes, let’s sit and watch who’s dying, shall we? Like rubbernecking at an accident. Everybody can think of some candidates in bad shape, but there will be surprises too. Having a discussion who will and who won’t is bad taste in my book. Enough people, in almost ALL companies, will be severely worried at the moment.

Well said. There is a time and place and that time isn’t now 👏👏👏

[MINself]

Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio

I do tend to think that as and when restrictions are lifted, in the UK at least people will still want to go on holiday. It may well be though that travel habits go back to the old fashioned two weeks bucket and spade in the summer. That may bode well for the likes of TUI and Jet2.

The idea that the industry, Jet2 included, won't contract between by 10-20% as so many holidaying people have lost jobs is difficult to argue against now, since the 23rd March a lot has changed.
Flying schedules will be slow to get going again, some crews got current, some continued to be furloughed. The global economic impact of what we are seeing is unprecedented and like other global events the aviation industry will take years to recover from.
Sadly more will lose their jobs and even worse some their lives. Let us hope we make it out alive and prepare of a very much smaller industry that will take years to recover to January 2020 levels.

[flocci_non_faccio]

The idea that the industry, Jet2 included, won't contract between by 10-20% as so many holidaying people have lost jobs is difficult to argue against now, since the 23rd March a lot has changed.

I've been pretty consistent in my assertion that the industry will contract by a hell of a lot more than 10-20%. That doesn't change my belief that TUI UK and Jet2 (the corporate entities) will come out of this in reasonable fighting shape. For a large number of pilots and cabin crew currently at both companies that'll be scant comfort because they will be out of work with little prospect of getting flying again.

[ManUtd1999]

The idea that the industry, Jet2 included, won't contract between by 10-20% as so many holidaying people have lost jobs is difficult to argue against now, since the 23rd March a lot has changed.

True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples. In an optimistic scenario we get on top of coronavirus over the next few months and life slowly returns to normal. This summer is clearly a write-off for most airlines but I don't think it's inconceivable that by next summer traffic is back close to February 2020 levels. Certainly the 3+ year depression people on these forums seem to be assuming is by no means guaranteed.

[Mr A Tis]

Originally Posted by ManUtd1999

True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples. In an optimistic scenario we get on top of coronavirus over the next few months and life slowly returns to normal. This summer is clearly a write-off for most airlines but I don't think it's inconceivable that by next summer traffic is back close to February 2020 levels. Certainly the 3+ year depression people on these forums seem to be assuming is by no means guaranteed.

That is a very optimistic scenario,IMHO. This thing isn't going away. Until there is a vaccine travel will remain restricted by States and individuals to one degree or another. That could easily be 18 months away. I'd say a 20% contraction of the industry would be optimistic, returning to Feb 2020 levels a fantasy.

[ATC Watcher]

The Eurocontrol network manager is very optimistic and predicts a rebound of traffic as early as May and around 80-90%f of January traffic by October . .They have normally very good data , but I have a bit of difficulty to see this coming .
On the other hand IATA has a much more pessimistic view ..:

IATA analysis indicates that on average airlines started for the year with approximately two months’ worth of cash in reserve. In recent weeks, as the crisis has worsened, many airlines have been paying out more in refunds than
they have received in new booking revenues, meaning that their reserves are rapidly depleting. In short, the industry is coming to a standstill.
Many European Airlines are currently in grave and immediate danger of insolvency.

[grizzled]

Predictions

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher

The Eurocontrol network manager is very optimistic and predicts a rebound of traffic as early as May and around 80-90%f of January traffic by October . .They have normally very good data , but I have a bit of difficulty to see this coming .
On the other hand IATA has a much more pessimistic view ..:

I too have (great) difficulty seeing any accuracy in the Eurocontrol network manager's predictions -- and Eurocontrol's historical predictions regarding air traffic and economic benefits thereof have been little better than optimistic guessing, even in more predictable times.

Re IATA: Remember what IATA's mandate and primary role is: They are the global lobbying agency for airlines. So rather than calling it "pessimistic" I see it as they are simply setting the stage for the upcoming months of arguing for financial assistance / bailouts for airlines (their members).

[Deltasierra010]

”Where did the reserve go to”, in business of all kinds there is very little reserve, it’s just not airlines, when customers stop paying you, you can’t pay the overheads. Your creditors, including leasing companies, banks and shareholders have to take a hit. It’s up to the creditors to decide if the business can be revived or wether to throw the towel in. New investors may or may not buy up the assets such as they are, one guarantee, employees and small creditors always loose.

[MINself]

Originally Posted by ManUtd1999

True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples.

I admire your steadfast optimism, but what’s required is that we need to face up to all the signals that this isn’t simply a “blip” in the global economy and aviation. The passengers that have been furloughed or laid off will not just walk into another job without financial hangover from the loss of earnings. This and many other issues, such as the price of oil and world futures markets means aviation will not recover quickly from this shock to it. Instead aviation, like so many industries, will have to be supported and gently eased back to full fitness.

The full recovery I believe and hope will happen, but there will be the loss of initial capacity and with it jobs throughout the aviation sector, this will simply reflect the global economic contraction. Those currently furloughed might be thinking about whether it’s likely they will be rehired when eventually the airlines restart a limited flight schedule, or made redundant?

[etudiant]

Honestly, no one knows how long the economy can survive a lock down.
It is quite possible that martial law and rationing will become necessary if the crisis goes into May.
We are already seeing breakdowns in international civility because the distribution of critical protective gear was not controlled appropriately, given the circumstances.
In this context, it is a stretch to speculate on the prospects for individual air carriers or aerospace equipment makers. They are small potatoes relative to others such as the auto or energy or financial industries, their fates will get determined once the big sectors have been sorted.
It is however very plausible that there will be a dramatic fall in productivity, as supply chains get deglobalized to prevent cutoffs in the future. That does not bode well for commercial air travel.

[Richard Dangle]

Honestly, no one knows how long the economy can survive a lock down.

100% agree. A reporter on the BBC coined the phrase "existential debate" meaning - bluntly - the cost of immediate fatality versus the cost of forthcoming fataility owing to socio-economic collapse. Some of the well-intentioned financial measures to support business in a service economy are not going to work. No rational business leader is going to borrrow money to sustain a business which has no future. Assuming this goes on for just a few more months, in the coming years the majority of the economically active part of the population will concerned with paying their mortgage and bills and putting food on the table. There will be squat for the "luxury" part of the market place which means devastation from lack of demand in the leisure and travel sectors, which form a sizeable chunk of any service economy. Not just airlines, hotels, clubs, pubs, restaraunts, any form of tourist attraction etc etc.

Governments will know this they are not dumb. They will be frantically searching for two solutions. 1. More realistic (yet still some how "affordable") business support measure, to eek out business survivability a few more months. 2. An exit strategy that gets people out of their homes and back to work. If that sounds like a statement of the obvious, maybe the implied bit is that the exit strategy is going to have to accept a level of immediate fatality higher than people might expect. In other words, I doubt we will remain locked down until this virus if a) fully under control b) we have herd immunity c) we have a vaccine. I think we will have to be out and about before any of those things happen.

[covec]

Just posted elsewhere...Radio Scotland reporting that easyjet only has funds to survive to August unless they can cancel their planned aircraft orders.

(Appreciate that Stelios has been against expansion so he may be telling porkies &#128521.

[22/04]

I think that there will be an easing for younger people quite soon- by that I mean June. I think that those over 70 and the vulnerable will be advised to self isolate for a long time - may be around a year with a few exemptions to visit family etc. That might help shops and pubs but the airline industry is in the most difficult position. It will require international agreement on the way forward and then people having the desire or funds to travel.

I really don't see any sort of demand for at least a year and any real recovery to something we recognise until 2023. Who will be left given that scenario is anybody's guess.

[ATC Watcher]

There are talks already to undo the "stay-at-home" restrictions in some countries pretty soon ( e.g Austria, perhaps Germany) both for economical reasons but also to get "herd" immunity on the long run . But these will not restore air travel in a matter of weeks. .
There is also some civilization / economical models which might not survive this crisis. , The create need for superfluous items that extensively relied on air transport to exist. The flower industry is one of them for instance..
Ferrying people in and out of cruise ships is another.
One of the International Organisation I work for decided to cancel all meetings/ travels in 2020. and go for virtual solutions. There are many of such examples that might either not survive, or at least take a certain time to restart. They might individually be a small percentage of traffic,but all of these put together will also have an serious impact on demand.

[easyJetCrew]

Liquidity and government response

I think it will all depend on individual airline's liquidity combined with the response of the government in which they're based. It's going to need both of these things for each airline to survive all this.

[GAGuy]

Maybe this has been touched on earlier, but in the US at least, the Federal government doesn't control the lock down. It didn't institute the shelter in place orders. The state governments did. For an edict from our Federal government telling people it's time to come out of their rabbit holes to be effective will take three things. First, the states will have to agree. Admittedly the Federal government could use bailout money to encourage them, but since those conditions aren't in the Congressional bailout authorization, it would likely face an immediate test in court. However, even if that succeeds, the second is that companies will have to agree. For the purposes of this discussion, that means that companies restart business travel and that won't happen until the business flyer is confident they won't risk death to attend a conference or make a sales call. Finally, the people themselves need to agree. And, once again, for the purposes of this discussion, that means people will start booking flights to Disneyland again.

This is all about trust, not governmental edicts, and trust in our Federal government at this moment is in short supply. Perhaps the day we can buy an n95 mask, hand sanitizer and toilet paper at our local store again, the day we don't have to stand in USSR-style lines to get in a grocery store to buy food, the day we're not seeing photos of mass graves in New York parks, the trust barometer might be high enough to make the transition.

[covec]

Spoiler

 

 

Al Jazeera reporting that the UK is the new epicentre.

If true then it will be a wee whiley yet afore we're supping Tennants doon the local...

...relevence here?

It'll be awhile yet. Airlines with good balance books & effective lobbying...🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[EPHD75]

A Different Poit of View

Living on the left coast, I guess I can understand your attitude. However, the federal government and the president lead the country, constitutionally and morally. If the president says the economy must be restarted, people will be glad to hear it and will force state governments to follow suit, where practical. This will be a rolling start up depending on the situation on the ground. In my neck of the woods there are no lines anywhere, and we don't see CNN.