Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

[gearlever]

P.D.
Of course, sorry.

[Longtimer]

Originally Posted by Pilot DAR

Yeah... I take:



The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. I know we all have our concerns ans beliefs with respect to the virus' effect on people, that's for a discussion elsewhere. Airplanes/Airlines/Pilot jobs here...

So why not moderate and move the non confirming spurious posts to another thread? Sort of sorting out the wheat from the chaff? Or maybe even change the title of the tread? Just saying.

[ILS27LEFT]

Median age is 63 in Italy

[Running Ridges]

Median of what?

@ILS Does that refer to the median age of positive cases?

Assumed it was for deaths, but unless i'm missing something the table data contradicts that, median for that is ~79

[Loose rivets]

The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. I know we all have our concerns ans beliefs with respect to the virus' effect on people, that's for a discussion elsewhere.

Throughout this thread the discussion has veered between the airlines and the pathology. The word Who? Whatever, there's one thing for certain, the hardware needs a fully functional crew. Staff wellbeing is paramount now, the virus and the world's strategies I'm sure are more important than one aircraft operator or another. An aviation site? Yes, but while this is not the biggest threat we've experienced, it is the biggest issue that we've actually had to cope with since the war.

Don't make a fuss . . . it's all the press' doing!? Hmmm, an odd thought about that. During the war people at home could gather together after the all clear. They had a pint and prayed in what was left of their churches. Togetherness - pretty well all they had. Now if anything, the press is helping to keep us apart, which counter to historic crises, is a good thing. But the sad thing is people are succumbing to the need for group comfort - and it could very well kill them. 'Bingo as usual tonight'. Awwww, they're old, they need the camaraderie. Fine, but don't dare call the NHS if you succumb. But of course, they will, and the NHS will respond. They're wonderful in these parts, but should not be put at risk by bewildering ignorance.

Beating my drum again about airborne droplets. In an untypically relaxed interview today, a virologist was answering questions while hugging is mug of tea. One thing leapt out at me was the minute numbers of viruses needed for an infection. It was an unexpected answer - 18, I think. They'd fit in the tiniest droplet. It is a very, very dangerous virus, not least of all because of the long incubation time hiding the danger.

Italy, lovely kissy, huggy and very verbose people are now singing operatically out of their windows. Oh, my. Sir Fred Hoyle would have a lot to say about the mist in the air. Going on his logic, dry or heavy rain is okay-ish, but a drizzle can hold a virus for hours. The air can be long range deadly.

[Pilot DAR]

So why not moderate and move the non confirming spurious posts to another thread? Sort of sorting out the wheat from the chaff?

Honestly, 'cause it's work.

[Chris2303]

In my not so humble opinion there is not one airline in the world that will grow to it's current fleet, and more importantly personnel, size when and if things get back to normal.

Greg Foran has already said that somewhere about Air NZ

[procede]

Originally Posted by Chris2303

In my not so humble opinion there is not one airline in the world that will grow to it's current fleet, and more importantly personnel, size when and if things get back to normal.

Greg Foran has already said that somewhere about Air NZ

In that respect especially Boeing, with it's delayed MAX aircraft which airlines can cancel with no penalty, is in trouble. But I would even stay far away from shares in Airbus and Embraer at the moment. No order is worth anything if the underwriting entity has basically gone bancrupt.

[G-V]

Originally Posted by Sholayo

And note that Germans do some creative statistics there.
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death.
So reality is muuuch worse there.


&

What is your source? a feeling?

[ILS27LEFT]

Yes of positive cases, real time feed in here
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav...arzo%20ITA.pdf


Global live data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yes Germany is using a different criteria for deaths, this is to reassure population and limit panic however very misleading and it could even be counter productive in the long term. Nobody knows at this stage. Italy is including all deaths due to Covid-19 including comorbidities.

[ATC Watcher]

Originally Posted by Pilot DAR

Yeah... I take:



The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. ...

As the one that selected this title, I confirm that by "Who" I meant our industry , i.e. airlines , ATC service providers , maintenance, ops, airports aircraft manufacturers,, every entity that will be affected by this unprecedented crisis. Of course it implies directly people , us.. That is what I wanted to discuss here instead of medical /scientific data which we can all find everywhere else.
We hear right now a lot about the airlines , plans and Boeing going down, etc. but every other part or the system is or will be deeply affected .

ATC is really my area of expertise, and I've been there long enough to have seen a few of those crises , including the PATCO strike in 81, so here is my prediction for 6 months from now::

Running cargo ops which seems to be ( at least today , things change by the hour almost) where the traffic will be in the next few months . To maintain this a functioning ATC needs to be in place. Mots of the service providers are privatized or semi privatized , Without the pax revenue, and the traffic down 50 to 90 % , many ANSPS will not be able to maintain a full workforce on payroll. Some countries might ( or will) re-nationalize their ATC but probably then it will be re-sized to the actual demand. That fact , plus a few virus casualties will probably mean that more than half the current controllers might not be longer employed by the end of the year.
But the system will work for the current low demand over the next 6 months.
But after, in 6 months from now ? I will dare to say, based on previous experience, that over half of those send -off controllers will look for another occupation and will never come back . To recruit and train new ones is a matter of years not months.,. so even if we survive that crisis financially and let's say only 10 -20 % of us , people, will be disabled by the virus , our numbers actually valid on the job will be much lower, My point is that, even if the demand is back , the infrastructure might not be there any longer to sustain that and it will take years , it not decades, to rebuild the situation we have left a few months ago ..

Let's hope I am wrong ..

[ILS27LEFT]

Air travel

Airlines, ATC, etc will be re-nationalized soon. It is actually good news for the industry.
In my opinion this virus will save the industry in the end as the present/previous model was only based on greed and not sustainable.

In Wuhan for the first time people can hear the birds singing and see the clear skies, I think this virus is Mother nature taking full control back and therefore fixing this broken planet.
WE SIMPLY CANNOT PRETEND TO IMPERSONATE GOD/NATURE. THE VIRUS IS MOTHER NATURE ASKING US TO STOP AND WE MUST LISTEN THIS TIME.

[hoga]

Originally Posted by derjodel

Italy will look like a walk in a park when **** hits the fan in the UK and USA.

Italy took extreme measures as soon as they had first confirmed case. UK and the USA are lagging far behind the reaction curve.

I'm with You. Chinese stats are basically irrelevant. Due to unconscious people in a cocpit (govuk) Health System has been given death sentence as UK should be closed
locked 2 weeks ago. UK is not far behind Italy good case circa weeks .

[I-AINC]

Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT

Airlines, ATC, etc will be re-nationalized soon. It is actually good news for the industry.
In my opinion this virus will save the industry in the end as the present/previous model was only based on greed and not sustainable.

In Wuhan for the first time people can hear the birds singing and see the clear skies, I think this virus is Mother nature taking full control back and therefore fixing this broken planet.
WE SIMPLY CANNOT PRETEND TO IMPERSONATE GOD/NATURE. THE VIRUS IS MOTHER NATURE ASKING US TO STOP AND WE MUST LISTEN THIS TIME.

Totally agree with you.

[midnight cruiser]

The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)

The colossal collective blunder was to repeatedly turn a blind eye to the evil cauldron of mixing animal and human diseases in certain parts of the world. That done, the damage is going to be horrific, whichever path we take. The horse has bolted.

[Alpine Flyer]

Originally Posted by Uplinker

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

As a virologist responding to the UK's initial plan said: small percentages multiplied by large numbers make for quite large numbers. Percentage-wise, 1% or less of lethality doesn't sound much but if you multiply it by a couple dozen million you end up with way more severely sick people than any country's health system can cope with (there aren't that many intensive care units around). Once you start running out of ICUs you have a lot of dead people in the equation as well. And to most people it make's a difference if Gran died because she was 80+ and "passed away in her sleep" or asphyxiated because the doctors at triage decided that someone younger had better chances of survival than Gran.

Here the government is heavily subsidizing short-time work and is doing everything to boost confidence despite shop/restaurant closures, etc. We get a payout to 80% of previous net and unemployment insurance (boosted with a government contribution) pays for all the time we don't actually work. This is not going to last forever and basically paid for with our own money (as workers pay the largest percentage of total tax revenue) but it helps to keep things going. Fingers crossed to still have an airline and demand once the virus spread has slowed....

[crunchingnumbers]

Moratorium on mortgages and loans

Originally Posted by midnight cruiser

The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)

The economic fallout will be significant with unknown repercussions in every facet. Why don't some governments do what some small countries have immediately done.

Ask/force banks, credit card companies and all, to have a 6 month moratorium on all repayments and extend as needed until economies get back on their feet. This may bring a much better sense of support than a percentage of pay (or none at all). With current plans tax payers are self funding in effect , if not this generation certainly the next. It's not like lending institutions haven't earned enough in many cases. Deferment seems more practical and allows G'ments to more immediately provide stress relief whilst they work out the liquidity of the financial system for continued support of deferment. God knows they have the financial geniuses amongst them to work that out just as they do when they conjure up funding in so many other ways.

Doesn't solve everything for e.g. renters but for a great number of people it would certainly help.

[homonculus]

There are other threads for medical. This is about airlines. My crystal ball is just that but my thoughts are

1 lockdowns will be much longer than we think with clusters on releasing them. It may be Fall 2021 before we have a vaccine and manufacture enough - if the US grabs it all other countries will be infected and infect unvaccinated Americans....

2 Many businesses can bounce back. Banking. Restaurants and other small businesses that just start again. there will be loads of landlords trying to rent restaurant premises

3 After lockdown many of us will question business travel when we can avoid being treated like imbeciles in steel tubes. global warming will become an even bigger panic, and to be fair it will be because the scientists who will resolve it are locked down and lockdown will result in a massive population explosion which is the real cause. so demand for aviation will be weak.

4 There will be massive government debt. austerity will return and taxes rise. This will stifle risk taking and new business ventures, affecting business travel. Increased taxation reduces leisure travel.

5 Bringing machinery and personnel back on line is problematic. Aircraft wont have flown. Pilots wont have currency. Key workers in the training and command chains will no longer be with us due to Covid 19 or retirement and lack of recruitment.

Of course for those in the industry there may be a move back to the good old days. Salaries and terms and conditions of service may improve with shortages, less passengers may mean they are treated with respect etc etc

I shall look at this post sometime next year and see if any prediction is correct.

[flocci_non_faccio]

1 lockdowns will be much longer than we think with clusters on releasing them.

If any lockdowns go on for longer than the 12 weeks that's been mooted, talk of which airlines (or businesses of any type for that matter) will survive is irrelevant. We will see civil disobedience on a massive scale, total civil disorder, rioting, looting etc. In other words a total breakdown of society.

The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)

I'm quite sure governments are already asking this question. I think it's pretty clear that the total collapse of the global economic system and the abject misery and untold deaths that it will cause is worse than this virus, at least in its current form. Of course, it's not particularly politically expedient to tell the electorate "Sorry, there's nothing we can do to help if you get the virus. Best of luck!"

[crunchingnumbers]

Yes Minister

Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio

If any lockdowns go on for longer than the 12 weeks that's been mooted, talk of which airlines (or businesses of any type for that matter) will survive is irrelevant. We will see civil disobedience on a massive scale, total civil disorder, rioting, looting etc. In other words a total breakdown of society.



I'm quite sure governments are already asking this question. I think it's pretty clear that the total collapse of the global economic system and the abject misery and untold deaths that it will cause is worse than this virus, at least in its current form. Of course, it's not particularly politically expedient to tell the electorate "Sorry, there's nothing we can do to help if you get the virus. Best of luck!"

Stage 1 - Nothing is going to happen
Stage 2 - Something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it
Stage 3 - Maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do
Stage 4 - Maybe there is something we could have done, but it's too late now