Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
There is a lot we dont know about the virus, but some basics about epidemiology and what is happening around the world allow us to be reasonably confident
1 that we should have totally isolated China when they locked down - we didnt and the early cases either came straight from China or via China
2 that we should have locked down our countries (I mean the UK and US) about 2 weeks ago - close borders and self isolate everyone except essential workers
3 that we are both undertesting - we need to test 100s of thousands so we can track and eliminate
If we had done so we could have kept deaths at under 100 in the UK and equivalent in the US. As it is we will see many more. The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost
1 that we should have totally isolated China when they locked down - we didnt and the early cases either came straight from China or via China
2 that we should have locked down our countries (I mean the UK and US) about 2 weeks ago - close borders and self isolate everyone except essential workers
3 that we are both undertesting - we need to test 100s of thousands so we can track and eliminate
If we had done so we could have kept deaths at under 100 in the UK and equivalent in the US. As it is we will see many more. The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost
People have to eat and pay the rent, but most don't have the savings to live off their hump for a couple of months. Nor do their employers have the money to pay them without normal business inflow.
So a shutdown is really a nationalization by another name, the government waives the payments due and provides credits (a la $1000/month suggested by Trump). Unwinding this will be challenging as well.
But it does seem the virus is compelling a very basic reappraisal of what a humane economic structure should look like.
Who decides which are essential?
Is it the supermarket shelf stockers, produce delivery drivers, and admin staff that run the re-supply operation? What about utility suppliers? Gas, electricity generation and distribution and water/sewage don't look after themselves. Do we tell the police, fire services and other emergency services to stay at home?
Is it the supermarket shelf stockers, produce delivery drivers, and admin staff that run the re-supply operation? What about utility suppliers? Gas, electricity generation and distribution and water/sewage don't look after themselves. Do we tell the police, fire services and other emergency services to stay at home?
People have to eat and pay the rent, but most don't have the savings to live off their hump for a couple of months. Nor do their employers have the money to pay them without normal business inflow.
The economic disruption will be profound, coming on top of the medical issues and before we have even considered the exit strategy.
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In addition you need a lot of chemicals and people to mix and use them. Plenty of people available and the training is probably not longwinded if concentrated only on the essential.
However 300 million wouldn't be enough. You would need to test each one several times to find when the ones with weak symptoms have it. And afterwards. 2 separate tests to declare them finished with CoVid-19 and in the clear and can resume normal life.
What we need is what the UK have requested. A new test that shows you have had it and now have antibodies and are immune. and for how long. Eventually they will have to come up with a cheap home test kit. If they can do it for pregnancy, why not.
I for one would also like a lung scan regularly afterwards to check if scar tissue has been created on the lungs, how long it takes to go away and when I'm ready for the next virus.
If sample you only become immune for lets say 3 years and build up more scar tissue for each round, we are all due a sticky end more quickly than we had hoped. Some diseases take a new generation to overcome.
And no I would'nt put all my eggs in the vaccine basket. They haven't been able to make one for any of the other 4 Corona viruses that regularly causes a cold in most of us.
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cattletruck
You are not comparing like for like. It is well known that, if someone smokes cigarettes for 20 years+, they are probably going to die of it. Likewise, death due to car prang and annual flu - it is well known. What people are panicking about is a NEW disease that cannot be seen or felt when it infects you and might kill you or deprive you of a job when your company cannot trade.
All govts and corporates picked up their old rule book and started reading. Eventhough some have been pointing out (for some time) that there was a Depression waiting for a trigger. ALL central banks now have to do something different and, for institutions, that is very, very difficult.
One of the key problems is that money is needed more urgently at the 'bottom' of the ladder, for the people with mortgages and bills to pay. Govts are only used to giving money to the 'top' of the ladder.
Putting money in at the top is not great as so little will reach the bottom. This needs a complete rethink by Govt and central banks. Neither of which are renowned for being able to change their entire way of thinking. Leave alone in the space of two weeks. That applies to every line of work.
To put this reaper into perspective. The current death toll from coronavirus currently stands at 5830 over a 1.5 month period. The average annual death toll from tobacco stands at 8 million (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...detail/tobacco).
All govts and corporates picked up their old rule book and started reading. Eventhough some have been pointing out (for some time) that there was a Depression waiting for a trigger. ALL central banks now have to do something different and, for institutions, that is very, very difficult.
One of the key problems is that money is needed more urgently at the 'bottom' of the ladder, for the people with mortgages and bills to pay. Govts are only used to giving money to the 'top' of the ladder.
Putting money in at the top is not great as so little will reach the bottom. This needs a complete rethink by Govt and central banks. Neither of which are renowned for being able to change their entire way of thinking. Leave alone in the space of two weeks. That applies to every line of work.
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That is the reason for lockdown. Essential workers represent a significant minority. you have listed only a small number - add healthcare workers for example. Unless everyone else stops going out to work or socialise we simply wont get the degree of social distancing necessary to beat the pandemic.
Psychophysiological entity
I was uncertain about the way in which the virus became pneumonia. I now have a reasonable overview picture gained by the Guardian article.
Perhaps the main issue is that it infects a large proportion of the lungs. It seems that it is viral pneumonia and there is little treatment other than oxygen and nursing. It's anticipated that it will, like most pneumonia, become bacteriological and so the patient - if they're very lucky - will be given antibiotics if they've survived the first stage.
Again, my drum-beating about moisture particles in the air. For years I've been writing here and there about how we could lessen the hospital burden by the use of small disinfected towels. A tissue just will not do the job. Now I suggest it's a matter of life or death and again raise the bizarrely bad example we're still seeing from say, the press. Screeching into people's faces at this time should be considered a serious assault. I'm still very angry at that scene.
Stilll every day people are talking AT each other. We need to educate the public about the spray. It is the prime killer.
Perhaps the main issue is that it infects a large proportion of the lungs. It seems that it is viral pneumonia and there is little treatment other than oxygen and nursing. It's anticipated that it will, like most pneumonia, become bacteriological and so the patient - if they're very lucky - will be given antibiotics if they've survived the first stage.
Prof Christine Jenkins, chair of Lung Foundation Australia and a leading respiratory physician, told Guardian Australia: “Unfortunately, so far we don’t have anything that can stop people getting Covid-19 pneumonia.
Stilll every day people are talking AT each other. We need to educate the public about the spray. It is the prime killer.
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Assumptions from the U.S. Government playbook on the virus:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1
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UK population is 65,000,000 give or take.
4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)
Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.
US has a population of 327.2m which gives them a potential death toll of 261,760. Again using your figures.
The Flu season has been in full swing for a few months and Covid19 is playing catchup but is far more of a threat that flu which has a mortality rate of 0.1%
4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)
Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.
US has a population of 327.2m which gives them a potential death toll of 261,760. Again using your figures.
The Flu season has been in full swing for a few months and Covid19 is playing catchup but is far more of a threat that flu which has a mortality rate of 0.1%
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Im currently in the US. As someone with homes on both sides of the boarder (US/Can) I get a good mix and feel for news from various sources. Thankfully I have my VPN to keep up with things in Canada but when on this side I normally flip through local and national sources. With being kind of stuck and purposely staying in I’ve been watching WAY more than I like. I can tell you with absolute certainty talking heads and commentators directly suggested testing everyone and others hint at it. Further, some also suggested tests for anyone with minor symptoms. It’s not limited to any network or local broadcasts either. Bloody nonsense that sends the wrong message.
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Even if we accept those figures (which I'm not sure I do), in the next 6 months approximately 400,000 people would be expected to die in the UK in the normal course of events. Many of your 52,000 are people who would othewise have been in that 400,000. It's not at all clear to me that the net increase in deaths would be significant. And the benefit to millions of people of strengthened immune systems as a result of overcoming the virus is significant.
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Even if we accept those figures (which I'm not sure I do), in the next 6 months approximately 400,000 people would be expected to die in the UK in the normal course of events. Many of your 52,000 are people who would otherwise have been in that 400,000. It's not at all clear to me that the net increase in deaths would be significant. And the benefit to millions of people of strengthened immune systems as a result of overcoming the virus is significant.
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Ebola makes you so sick that you have to stay in bed and inevitably limit the spread of the disease since you cannot interact with people anymore.
Covid-19 have flu like symptoms and you can still perform your daily duties and spread the virus to all people who interact with you. We have a portion of the population who's in a risk group due to underlying conditions and/or old age. No country is prepared to have a substantial increase in the number of people needing hospitalisation all of sudden. There are no ICU bed units available for hundreds of people coming all of a sudden. Specialized staff is also a problem. China had to urgently build around 10 modular hospitals to treat all the sick people.
I agree there's no need to panic, but people MUST understand the necessity to avoid social interaction. The main objective of self isolation is to slow down the spread of the disease so the Health Systems of the countries can cope with the inevitable increase in the number of people needing attention.
Italy is the perfect example of what happens when a health system gets completely overwhelmed. Add to that an already aged population and you have the equivalent of a B777 full of people dying everyday due to this damn virus.
Covid-19 have flu like symptoms and you can still perform your daily duties and spread the virus to all people who interact with you. We have a portion of the population who's in a risk group due to underlying conditions and/or old age. No country is prepared to have a substantial increase in the number of people needing hospitalisation all of sudden. There are no ICU bed units available for hundreds of people coming all of a sudden. Specialized staff is also a problem. China had to urgently build around 10 modular hospitals to treat all the sick people.
I agree there's no need to panic, but people MUST understand the necessity to avoid social interaction. The main objective of self isolation is to slow down the spread of the disease so the Health Systems of the countries can cope with the inevitable increase in the number of people needing attention.
Italy is the perfect example of what happens when a health system gets completely overwhelmed. Add to that an already aged population and you have the equivalent of a B777 full of people dying everyday due to this damn virus.
Last edited by Pilot DAR; 18th Mar 2020 at 11:01. Reason: removed quote which otherwise I deleted
Paxing All Over The World
Ebola self limits because it becomes rapidly visible and kills very fast. CV19 does the opposite.
Many people misunderstand that:- Humans know that people die from old age, cancer, flu, car prangs, drowning and countless other causes. These are all known and factored by each person as they grow up. They understand the dangers of smoking or being in a car etc.
What they find frightening is a NEW disease that they have never heard of that can be transmitted through the air by someone you meet for a few minutes in a shop. That disease does not have to kill you to take away your job and your ability to live any kind of life similar to the one you know.
THAT is why there is panic and the need for decent govt, which is lacking in several places of the world. Despite all the warnings of global pandemics in the last 20 years, how many govts were ready to respond?
Airlines (and all corporates) are asking for money because that's all in the old rule book. The OLD rule book. There are no rules for this 21st century Pandemic.
Many people misunderstand that:- Humans know that people die from old age, cancer, flu, car prangs, drowning and countless other causes. These are all known and factored by each person as they grow up. They understand the dangers of smoking or being in a car etc.
What they find frightening is a NEW disease that they have never heard of that can be transmitted through the air by someone you meet for a few minutes in a shop. That disease does not have to kill you to take away your job and your ability to live any kind of life similar to the one you know.
THAT is why there is panic and the need for decent govt, which is lacking in several places of the world. Despite all the warnings of global pandemics in the last 20 years, how many govts were ready to respond?
Airlines (and all corporates) are asking for money because that's all in the old rule book. The OLD rule book. There are no rules for this 21st century Pandemic.
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UK population is 65,000,000 give or take.
4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)
Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.
US has a population of 327.2m which gives them a potential death toll of 261,760. Again using your figures.
The Flu season has been in full swing for a few months and Covid19 is playing catchup but is far more of a threat that flu which has a mortality rate of 0.1%
4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)
Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.
US has a population of 327.2m which gives them a potential death toll of 261,760. Again using your figures.
The Flu season has been in full swing for a few months and Covid19 is playing catchup but is far more of a threat that flu which has a mortality rate of 0.1%
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And we have a moderately effective vaccination against the flu which in the UK is free to over 65s, pregnant women, carers, and people with a list of chronic condition, asthma being just one example. Unfortunately uptake isn't always what it could be. People who don't get a free jab can get one cheaply at a pharmacy.
Secondly the point about Influenza immunity through vaccination is very relevant, many of those who influenza does not kill would not survive without vaccination, that same demographic are under the most risk now.
Lots of people will die in this event, and if no vaccine is developed, lots of people will die when it comes around again, which it almost certainly will . . . see Spanish Flu for a reference model for how these things tend to work . . .