Pegasus accident in SAW; just reported

[ThorMos]

Originally Posted by ProPax

<snip>
In 1997, ICE high-speed train at Eschede derailed at 200kph on a flat track, piled up, threw the pile-up into the bridge, collapsed it and killed 101 people injuring 80 more. In 1993, a much older TGV train derailed at 300kph due to a hole opening under the track, stayed upright, and produced one light injury. Which one was a better design?

If i ever need an example for over-simplification, here it is. When the TGV derailed, was there as switch (point) on the track? Was there a bridge in the way?

[FlyingStone]

Originally Posted by wtsmg

Anyone at work with access to 73 landing perf? 22-37kt TW, braking action good or medium to good, 3000m rwy, ZFW for 177 pax, probably <2T fuel.

I doubt you'll even get Boeing to calculate such landing performance for you, because it is extremely unlikely 737 was ever landed with 30kts tailwind during test programme.

Our AFM data is only up to 15kts.

[jmmoric]

Originally Posted by FlyingStone

Our AFM data is only up to 15kts.

There has to be some consideration... you can land with 15 kts reported wind, with gust up to 24 kts not reported.

And eventhough you get a mean wind of 15 kts reported, you will not be updated on the wind, unless the mean wind gets to 25 kts.... if you get the idea?

[Clandestino]

Originally Posted by Kirks gusset

the trust levers advanced, which is possible if the aircraft lands in TOGA mode

It did. CM2 as PF innitiated go-around, CM1 took over and landed but never disengaged the autothrust. Not a whole lot of imagination is needed to realize what happens when reversers are stowed not quite at the same time.

If you have just joined the discussion, Kirk's gusset and I are referring to Jan 2018. TZX messup.

Originally Posted by parkfell

Airport design also a critical factor.

How so?

Originally Posted by fox niner

Whatever has happened, we will never know exactly. Turkey does not publish ANY accident reports.

That actually depends on the definition of "to publish". It's true the accidents investigations results are not made public. A few hardcopies are made and disseminated to parties including the airline, the manufacturer and the authority of the registry. I really, deeply don't like it but seemingly it satisfies the letter of ICAO rules.

Originally Posted by tdracer

On a more serious note, maybe it's time for some airports to look into installing EMAS

Sabiha Gökcen has 3000x45 m runway built on a hill so steep decline at about 100m past THR24 is there because the last part of runway 06 is actually built on embankment. It's all very nice having an EMAS but personally I would prefer not getting runway shortened because of it.

Originally Posted by Double Back

Interesting. In my B744 days I showed many a F/O, during X-wind landings, how the wind vector on the ND or PFD changed dramatically as soon as the PF decrabbed the beast, or when the A/P decrabbed it. I told them to stop reading the wind out loud as it only brought false info.

Wow. I am utterly impressed with your VSOP* technique of having both of you looking at ND wind display during landing flare. Being far lesser airman than you, I am reduced to arriving to 50 ft over the runway at proper place, with proper speed and proper thrust and relying on visual cues, e.g. touchdown zone fleeing away laterally and/or longitudinally from my aeroplane at an unacceptable rate, to judge whether to plonk it or to escape vertically, in the direction contrary to local gravity. Also I am so unaware that ND wind is false that I still try to use it as an assistance in possible windshear detection. I can only hope that, through experience, I'll become more like you.

*VSOP = Very Superior Old Pilot, an aeronautical being whose depth & breadth of knowledge of the matters pertaining to flight, acquired through experience, are of almost mythical proportions and who is only too happy to impart the aforementioned knowledge on any suitable target, main suitability criterium being position in the hearing range. He usually knows the cure for all our contemporary aeronautical ills, primarily consisting of returning to standards and procedures of the times when we lost the plot and working our way from there but in the right direction. Alas, for all their strength, his opinions are rarely taken into account and I'd daresay that's one of the major reasons we have the safety statistics the way we have them today.

Originally Posted by EDLB

Will be an interesting CVR to see how the decision making process went on.

Chances of CVR ever making it to public are poor to nil.

Originally Posted by 73qanda

Is it just me or has the NG had more than it’s fair share of over-run events in the last decade?

Probably just a statistical glitch. I found 738 faster down the glide and more slippery than 320 but still well within "easily manageable" area.

Originally Posted by Joe le Taxi

A question I expect Boeing are starting to ask themselves is, is it good business sense to sell our products to airlines who are given to smashing them to pieces, putting them on front pages and giving regulators palpitations?

That was already pre-empted by stopping the deliveries of MAX to any airline whose inferior pilots' performance might tarnish the reputation of Boeing's superior aeroplane.

Originally Posted by Ollie Onion

I assume there was not a lot of fuel onboard as there was fire at the breakup but is seems to have extinguished itself which would suggest not too much fuel in the tanks which may have forced the issue of pushing on with such an tailwind.

SAW was the destination, they absolutely needed to have at least alternate fuel plus half an hour in their tanks at landing. Dunno what was their alternate but LTFM accepted post-crash diversions pretty swiftly and efficiently. At that time Bursa was affected by the TS and quite unusable but Çorlu or Eskişehir are not far away either.

Originally Posted by Kirks gusset

Although SAW is often closed at night for "repairs" it appears nothing actually gets fixed, the airport stopped the heavy cargo aircraft for a while, but that didn't help much. In truth the runway needs digging up and completely re-laying.. just like Gaziantep, although hopefully quicker.

The problem with Sabiha is that, unlike GZT, ADB or ERZ, taxiway D is really a taxiway and can't be used as a runway while main one is being repaired. SAW has become a victim of its own success (mainly brought on by Pegasus) as the original plan called for far less movements than there were in a last decade so the runway is really beaten up. The new parallel runway is being built but I don't hold much hope for it to get operational this year. Anyway, all the unevenness of the runway and too much tire deposit in the TDZs, did not significantly affect the result of landing about 2 km into 3 km long, wet runway, with tailwind above limit.

[PJ2]

Do we know if the cockpit crew survived? I note that the first section of fuselage is upside down but essentially intact but for the underside/nosewheel area damage.

[sleeper]

Originally Posted by PJ2

Do we know if the cockpit crew survived? I note that the first section of fuselage is upside down but essentially intact but for the underside/nosewheel area damage.

copilot, dutch, is in hospital.

[PJ2]

Thank you, sleeper. Any word on the captain?

[RoyHudd]

3 Runway Excursions in 2 years

The simple statistics for PGS alone need no embellishment. Other national airlines have contributed to the accident record. Reviewing the high frequency of accidents involving Turkish passenger carriers, one must conclude that there is an inherent problem.

The recent crashes have involved serviceable aircraft.
Weather conditions in Turkey are no better and no worse than most parts of the aviation world.
Turkish ATC is competent, and the airfields generally well-equipped.

Is it pure bad luck, or is there an issue to be solved to lessen the attrition rate?

[AuroraAustralis]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

There's a rather extended and facile debate on this topic in the Comments section of the Avherald report on the accident. Last time I looked, nobody had provided any non-anecdotal evidence to support the proposition that the 737 is more prone to overrun than the A320.

As a person who is always interested in math and statistics, I've done some research on this question that was brought up repeatedly. Here are the comparison between the runway excursion rates of the B737NG vs. the A320 family. I'm not going to state any opinion, take these numbers and interpret as you wish:

Runway excursion hull losses in the past 2 years involving the B737NG (6700 built):
PGT8622: Jan 2018
CXA8667: Aug 2018
UTA579: Sep 2018
ANG73: Sep 2018
BSK293: May 2019
PGT2193: Feb 2020

Runway excursion hull losses in the past 2 years involving the A320 family (9200 built):
N/A

Since the discussion here is mainly around Pegasus Airlines and their training procedures, some have mentioned that if Pegasus had Airbus, they would also have runway excursions with that fleet too. I did some online research into their fleet type vs the accident rate of each type. Again, no opinion here, take the numbers as you wish.
Pegasus has 45 A320 family aircraft, 32 B737NG aircraft. (So about 60% A320, 40% B737). They've had 3 excursion incidents: Jan 2018 (737), Jan 2020 (737), and Feb 2020 (737).

These are some stats from a quick bit of research to answer this question that some of you brought up. Hopefully this helps. Condolences to the families and may the hurt have a speedy recovery.

[ManaAdaSystem]

NG 10 kts tailwind is standard, 15 kts is an option. You pay, you get it, and that is the way it has been since the NG was new.
I know, I have flown it since it came. End of that discussion.

The NG has not been prone to overruns, the -800 has. I don’t think any of those incident/accident aircraft was put on the runway in the touchdown zone at the correct speed. All came in high, hot, not configured, tailwind, flooded runway, any combination of. This accident is just another example on how not to do it.
The -800 will bite you when you do don’t fly it correctly.

[sleeper]

Originally Posted by PJ2

Thank you, sleeper. Any word on the captain?

our newsoutlets only report on the copilot, nothing on the captain yet.

[Airbubba]

Originally Posted by sleeper

our newsoutlets only report on the copilot, nothing on the captain yet.

This report on the pilots from a BBC article:

Transport Minister Mehmet Cahit Turhan said authorities had not yet been able to speak to the pilots, a Turkish national and a South Korean, who were believed to have been injured in the accident.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51384667

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by sleeper

copilot, dutch, is in hospital.

authorities had not yet been able to speak to the pilots, a Turkish national and a South Korean

Does that imply there were three crew on the flight deck ?

[cappt]

Originally Posted by jmmoric

There has to be some consideration... you can land with 15 kts reported wind, with gust up to 24 kts not reported.

And eventhough you get a mean wind of 15 kts reported, you will not be updated on the wind, unless the mean wind gets to 25 kts.... if you get the idea?

Negative, that’s not how it works.
The max gust is always used for tailwind and x-wind calculations. Maybe it’s done differently at other airlines in different parts of the world?

[sleeper]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

Does that imply there were three crew on the flight deck ?

There are a lot of turkish immigrants from decades ago in holland. Their children are born and raised there and are dutch. Because of their ancestory they also receive a turkish passport at birth and turkey sees them as turks. They even have to go into military service unless a monetary fee is payed. I would not be surprised if the F/O is a dutch national with a dual turkish passport.

[PJ2]

Thank you sleeper, Airbubba. DaveReidUK, re 3rd crew member, hard to say with present info but it would be unusual, no?

[fox niner]

Originally Posted by sleeper

There are a lot of turkish immigrants from decades ago in holland. Their children are born and raised there and are dutch. Because of their ancestory they also receive a turkish passport at birth and turkey sees them as turks. They even have to go into military service unless a monetary fee is payed. I would not be surprised if the F/O is a dutch national with a dual turkish passport.

Negative. This is not the case. I heard through the grapevine that he only holds a Dutch passport, and is not of Turkish ancestry.
South Korean? Where does he suddenly spring forth from?

[sleeper]

Originally Posted by fox niner

Negative. This is not the case. I heard through the grapevine that he only holds a Dutch passport, and is not of Turkish ancestry.
South Korean? Where does he suddenly spring forth from?

Ok, you seem to know more details. It is reported here that he is dutch. Then it is strange that another source claimes a turkish and a korean pilot. Not that it matters.

[Strumble Head]

Wiggly tails ...

Originally Posted by ProPax

Boeing 737 NG is a lousy design. It bloody wiggles its tail in turbulence!!! In 1997, ICE high-speed train at Eschede derailed at 200kph on a flat track, piled up, threw the pile-up into the bridge, collapsed it and killed 101 people injuring 80 more. In 1993, a much older TGV train derailed at 300kph due to a hole opening under the track, stayed upright, and produced one light injury. Which one was a better design?

Oh cor strewth! Clearly someone who has never been (or known someone who has flown and been ... ) at the back of a stretched DC-8 (Series 6x) in flight. Occasionally the back end lined up with the front - but only occasionally.
Thank heavens for the more informed posters who are pointing out that a truly robust and rigid aeroplane would be too flippin' heavy to lift off with any meaningful payload. Great for the accident stats, stuff-all use as an aerial transport platform.
Rant over ....

[viking767]

Is Pegasus a Pay to fly airline?