Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Flight Deck Forums > Rumours & News
Reload this Page >

BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus

Rumours & News Reporting Points that may affect our jobs or lives as professional pilots. Also, items that may be of interest to professional pilots.

BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus

Old 15th Feb 2020, 17:48
  #241 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: london,uk
Posts: 735
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
Your assumption was on-target. Most investigation to date indicates cytokine storms developing in many/most COVID-19 (WHO's new official name for the disease caused by 2019-nCoV) cases that become fatal.

Knowing that may not be all that useful in a clinical sense, because there aren't really any good, established ways to deal with cytokine storms.

I don't think the fact that the fatalities are typically in older patients argues against the relationship. Remember, cytokine storms are explosive but ineffective immune responses that develop in later-stage illness.

A Google search for "coronavirus cytokine storm" will return many of the most useful results. This Lancet brief and the papers cited in it is a good place to start and has been widely cited in the short time since publication: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...305-6/fulltext
This might help
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/s...s-to-the-body/
peter we is offline  
Old 15th Feb 2020, 18:00
  #242 (permalink)  
Pegase Driver
 
Join Date: May 1997
Location: Europe
Age: 73
Posts: 3,668
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
The virus is very transmissible, as evidenced by a case in China where 2 families were infected in a restaurant simply by sitting next to a third family which had an asymptomatic but infected member.
Well not surprising if you are in a traditional Chinese family restaurant whee everyone shares the food from a single pot and picks up food bits with its own sticks on that pot..This is their culture. So I guess it is a bit more than just sitting around the same table...
The real fear is if that virus gets to Africa, where physical contacts, handshakes and eating and sharing food using fingers is common place and cultural in rural areas. Also in Many African Sates have a very basic medical infrastructure.
ATC Watcher is offline  
Old 15th Feb 2020, 19:02
  #243 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Under the radar, over the rainbow
Posts: 788
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Drc40
The biggest news is the testing revelation so we get a much better picture of the overall impact.
The only revelation related to testing is that China has decided to accept "clinical diagnosis" -- basically assessment of symptoms plus radiological findings from chest scans -- as confirming the disease for practical purposes under current conditions. That decision was made because they can't come close to keeping up with RT-PCR testing.

This practice is almost certainly correctly identifying most of the many new cases it's adding to the total, but it is also undoubtedly erroneously including other viral respiratory infections, since symptoms and radiological findings are more or less identical for the various viral infections.

Edit: Also, of course, clinical diagnosis won't find any asymptomatic carriers. But few of those individuals are probably being found in Hubei, anyway, given the size of the outbreak and the fact that they can't keep up with nucleic acid testing even for already-ill patients.

By the way, since this is PPRuNe, does anyone have a summary of overall flight cancellations at this point?

Last edited by OldnGrounded; 15th Feb 2020 at 22:46.
OldnGrounded is offline  
Old 15th Feb 2020, 19:48
  #244 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 17,344
Received 1,559 Likes on 710 Posts
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/109720...eave-the-ship/

Elderly woman on coronavirus cruise diagnosed AFTER being cleared to leave the ship

AN 83-year-old US passenger aboard the luxury cruise ship Westerdam has been diagnosed with coronavirus a day AFTER she disembarked along with 2,200 other passengers and crew including 600 Americans.

Cambodia allowed the stricken ship to disembark in the port city of Sihanoukville on Friday after it was turned away by five other ports. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has been skeptical of the severity of the virus, personally distributed roses and shook hands with the Westerdam’s passengers as they disembarked........

Malaysia’s health ministry reported that the infected woman and her husband were among 145 passengers that flew to Malaysia on February 14. She was found with symptoms when she landed in Kuala Lumpur and was sent to a specialist designated hospital. She has been placed in isolation and is in a stable condition......
ORAC is offline  
Old 15th Feb 2020, 21:28
  #245 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Connecticut, USA
Age: 64
Posts: 252
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by fdr
Interesting statistics:
  • A significant positive correlation exists between ACE2 and smoking.
I wondered about that. I'd assume that the air pollution in China isn't helping, either. If you've already got damaged lungs....
jugofpropwash is offline  
Old 15th Feb 2020, 23:07
  #246 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,352
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
Well not surprising if you are in a traditional Chinese family restaurant whee everyone shares the food from a single pot and picks up food bits with its own sticks on that pot..This is their culture. So I guess it is a bit more than just sitting around the same table...
The real fear is if that virus gets to Africa, where physical contacts, handshakes and eating and sharing food using fingers is common place and cultural in rural areas. Also in Many African Sates have a very basic medical infrastructure.
Except that this was three separate tables, just adjacent, no food sharing, so presumably aerosol transmission.
etudiant is offline  
Old 15th Feb 2020, 23:58
  #247 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Southern Shores of Lusitania Kingdom
Age: 53
Posts: 858
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
Except that this was three separate tables, just adjacent, no food sharing, so presumably aerosol transmission.
How can you be so sure about that regarding those details such as 3 separate tables ..?
You been there or just a newspaper reading like any mortal here?
(forgive me the little irony... I respect your point)

Last edited by JanetFlight; 16th Feb 2020 at 00:11.
JanetFlight is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2020, 00:04
  #248 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Under the radar, over the rainbow
Posts: 788
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
Except that this was three separate tables, just adjacent, no food sharing, so presumably aerosol transmission.
Indeed. I think we can know enough about the transmissibility of this virus, simply by observing the development of the outbreak in Wuhan and, on a smaller scale, the transmission among pax on the cruise ship now docked in Yokohama, to be pretty sure that close contact is not required. Depending upon the material and the specific virus (and temperature, etc.) various coronaviruses are known to survive on inanimate surfaces for periods between a few hours and 28 days. There's no reason to expect 2019-nCoV to be less persistent.

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents

OldnGrounded is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2020, 00:08
  #249 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Southern Shores of Lusitania Kingdom
Age: 53
Posts: 858
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Recent update numbers in BNO few minutes ago...

@BNODesk

UPDATE: China's National Health Commission reports 166 new cases and 3 new deaths outside Hubei province since yesterday.

Crisis averted... Maybe
JanetFlight is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2020, 00:28
  #250 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 60
Posts: 496
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
There has been a lot of talk about inaccurate test results.

NAAT (nucleic acid amplification tests) for resp infections generally have very good accuracy per se. NAAT has been a major advance over earlier techniques. There is no reason to believe NAAT will be any different for this virus.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21073292
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.c...879-017-2227-x

BUT, a big problem is adequate sample collection.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185851/
Respiratory virus detection is highly dependent on the type of sample collected, the time of collection after the onset of clinical symptoms, the age of the patient, and the transport and storage of the sample prior to testing (48, 49). Several different upper respiratory tract specimens are applicable for testing, including nasopharyngeal (NP) washes, NP aspirates, and NP swabs placed in virus transport media (48, 49). There are limited data that support the use of combined nose-throat swabs for influenza A virus testing by NAAT (14). Detection of 12 respiratory viruses using a NAAT panel was significantly less sensitive with oropharyngeal swab specimens (54.2%) than with either nasopharyngeal swabs (73.3%) or nasopharyngeal wash specimens (84.9%) (33). This may be due to the substantially lower viral loads in the oropharynx than in the nasopharynx (23).
The more accurate sampling techniques are more likely to induce aerosolization of respiratory secretions (coughing, sneezing) and hence pose greater risk to the tester. Threat swabs are very poor (possibly no better than a coin toss), but are quick and easy and less dangerous to the tester. Nasopharyngeal washings are the opposite in every regard.
Imagine an environment where an entire province has been isolated for the greater good, where there is a sense of being abandoned, where the state has failed to provide sufficient PPE, where health care workers (who have their own families to look after) are getting infected.
Now imagine what tests are being done.

The technology per se is probably good. But like everything else, testing breaks down when the system itself starts to break down.
slats11 is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2020, 01:48
  #251 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Under the radar, over the rainbow
Posts: 788
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by slats11
BUT, a big problem is adequate sample collection.
Well, that's part of the problem. It's a part that is magnified by the fact that NAAT copies contaminating DNA as well as the genetic material being tested. In the real world, in Hubei, the results include simply enormous numbers of false negatives. In an interview, last week, with CCTV, Wang Chen, director of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said that the false negatives were running between 30% and 50%.

It really doesn't look like there's a reasonable alternative, at this point, to relying upon clinical diagnosis, notwithstanding its obvious drawbacks. Reliable, rapid and readily-available tests and the ability to administer them properly just doesn't exist in the main outbreak environment.
OldnGrounded is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2020, 04:23
  #252 (permalink)  
Chief Bottle Washer
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: PPRuNe
Posts: 5,120
Received 181 Likes on 109 Posts
We’re well off R&N original topic; any further discussion take it to https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/629...rus-china.html
Senior Pilot is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.