Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

[Widger]

Originally Posted by Capi_Cafre'

Not a bad read at all, but I'm surprised that the "caused by human error" trope is still alive and well in discussions of this sort. The launch crew almost certainly made a reasoned decision to fire within the context of its training and the information available at the time.

There are many assumptions being made in this thread. Knowing how much training is required to form an effective air defence team there is a lot that can go wrong.

We assume that the SA-15 platform was fully serviceable. The IFF might have been broken or the command system itself may have had defects. Remember that the country is under significant sanctions and whilst this is a Russian built system, did the regime have enough money to pay for spare parts or regular maintenance?

What training did the operators have? If you spoke to the average UK or US grunt, he would have little idea of airways, squawks and SIDs. He would be trained for an all out war environment on the whole, where there would NOT be Non combatants.

We are guilty of applying NATO levels of training expectation against a largely conscripted force. Even the US Navy got it wrong in similar circumstances, probably reliant too much on automation rather than human interrogation, formed from significant amounts of training.

Add to all this the threat of attack and such reactions are unsurprising.

Out of all this I hope that all parties wake up and realise this cannot continue. That dialogue needs to occur and normal relations resume. Maybe the Ukraine is in a good place now to be the broker, as they seem to have negotiated this political minefield very well, having known the truth early on.

The Persians are a proud and ancient race and something has to be offered to enable them to step back without losing face. I know some will criticise me for such a pacifist view but how would we feel if Iranian ships sailed up and down the Eastern seaboard everyday. How did the US nation feel when the redcoats were blockading Philli and other cities. Its gonna make you lash out!

[Longtimer]

The following is meant to be Shared so here goes: https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...826520441.html

TSB's role in the investigation of Ukrainian Airlines flight 752

NEWS PROVIDED BY
Transportation Safety Board of Canada Jan 13, 2020, 14:00 ET

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2020 /CNW/ - Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB) Chair Kathy Fox today provided an update on the TSB's role in the investigation of Ukrainian International Airlines flight 752 in Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.
Since learning of the accident, the TSB has been in direct contact with the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given the high number of Canadian fatalities, the TSB has confirmed its role as an expert and accepted Iran's invitation to attend the accident site as entitled in Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation. Two TSB air accident investigators left Canada on Friday evening and, over the weekend, met up with members of the Canadian consular team in Turkey. They have since obtained visas to travel to Iran and have departed for Tehran, along with members of Canada's Consular team. Additionally, the TSB will also deploy a second team of investigators with expertise in aircraft recorder download and analysis, once the time and place that this activity will take place is confirmed.

"As 57 of the passengers who died in this tragedy were Canadian, it is our hope that the TSB will be allowed to bring more of its expertise to a thorough and transparent investigation," said Kathy Fox. "The TSB is seen as a world leader, and we have participated in foreign investigations for almost 30 years. […] As an independent accident investigation agency, we will also collaborate with the other international investigation authorities with whom we have long-standing and well-developed relationships—including those from France, Sweden, the UK and the US, as well as Ukraine."

Aviation accident and incident investigations are governed by Annex 13 to the Convention of International Civil Aviation. As the "State of Occurrence", the Islamic Republic of Iran and, specifically, its Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), has the right to lead the safety investigation. The role of states with a special interest by virtue of fatalities, serious injuries or other direct interests, which includes Canada, is also similarly prescribed. As the lead investigation agency, the Iranian AAIB is also responsible for communicating information about the progress and results of the investigation.

"The purpose of an ICAO Annex 13 safety investigation is to find all causal and contributing factors to an accident, without attributing blame or civil or criminal liability, to address safety deficiencies, and prevent similar accidents from happening again," said Kathy Fox. "Experience has shown that a thorough safety-focused investigation offers the best chance of confirming what really happened and providing the answers that everyone is asking for, particularly for the families who lost so much."

See the backgrounder on foreign air occurrence investigations for more information.

The TSB is an independent agency that investigates air, marine, pipeline, and rail transportation occurrences. Its sole aim is the advancement of transportation safety. It is not the function of the Board to assign fault or determine civil or criminal liability.

The TSB is online at www.tsb.gc.ca. Keep up to date through RSS, Twitter (@TSBCanada), YouTube, Flickr and our blog.

SOURCE Transportation Safety Board of Canada

[lomapaseo]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

The scope of Annex 13 specifically excludes incidents involving injury or death inflicted by a third party.

Can you remind us if they do use the word "exclude" or is a slight weaker meaning that it does not "include"? which leaves it up to the investigator to choose what applies to their work?

[PJ2]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

. . .
If they choose to end this process sooner rather than later, I hope that decision will be taken in consultation with Ukranian and Canadian goverrnments, at the least.

Yessir, Lonewolf_50, Amen to that statement.
PJ2

[jantar99]

Originally Posted by ele

He adds: the crew commander "evaluates the signal strength from the target by the magnitude of the mark (i.e. on the radar): if it's a large or small target. The indicators show a bright or dim mark. Simply put, the commander should have seen something big fly. From a large passenger plane, the mark will be ten times brighter than from a military target" (i.e. like a fighter plane). A cruise missile "has a very low reflecting power. The brightness of this point is no longer ten, but a hundred times less bright than that of a commercial airplane. And a cruise missile flies at a very low altitude, in order to avoid being detected... we are speaking about just tens of meters. And the Iranians shot down a huge plane flying at an altitude of 2400 meters. How can this be confused?

I second that statement about the reflective power of a B737 vs a military rocket or plane and a subsequent difference in the radar mark (intensity or similar).

[jantar99]

Originally Posted by Capi_Cafre'

The launch crew almost certainly made a reasoned decision to fire within the context of its training and the information available at the time.

Then this crew must be incompetent. Or did they think about a huge bomber approaching them in the middle of Iran?

[Lonewolf_50]

jantar, there are a myriad of ways for a crew to show up for their mission/shift and not be on their A game.
Example:

Sergeant A has gotten an arse chewing or two during the past month for not being on time. The Captain has put him "on the sh** list"
Sergeant A has been feeling sick, but does not want to draw too much attention to himself by asking to go to the doctor.
The Captain has been keeping an eye on him.
He gets some medicine from (wife, friend, brother, cousin who runs a drug store / chemist's) and self medicates.
The stuff's a bit strong, so he's a bit foggy and is not as sharp as usual ...

Could it happen?
Yes.
And of course there are training issues, and more, in human factors cases ...
(And this accident was often brought up when our flight surgeons discussed why not to self medicate ...)

[gearlever]

Originally Posted by ele

And the Iranians shot down a huge plane flying at an altitude of 2400 meters. How can this be confused?.

PS-752 was shot down at 8.000 ft MSL, about 4.700 ft AGL / 1.400m AGL.

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by lomapaseo

Can you remind us if they do use the word "exclude" or is a slight weaker meaning that it does not "include"? which leaves it up to the investigator to choose what applies to their work?

I think you misunderstand. The scope of Annex 13 explicitly excludes deaths and injuries caused by a third party. It follows that the document is (by definition) silent on the procedures to be followed in an event where such exclusions apply.

But there is, of course, no reason why a (non-Annex 13) investigation should not follow similar SARPS to those in Annex 13, even though it has no force. Same as, for example, the investigations into PA103 and MH17, where the AIBs of the countries involved played a major part in parallel with the respective criminal investigations.

[katekebo]

One important thing to consider is the very short time that the missile crew has to decide if to launch the missile or not. TOR's effective range is 12 km. Detection range is probably somewhat bigger, but not much. For an incoming missile flying ~500 knots, it's ~60 sec from detection to impact. Considering that the missile has be launched before the attacking missile or aircraft gets too close, the crew literally has a less than 30 sec window to decide between "kill or get killed". 30 sec to identify the incoming aircraft, confirm if it is a threat, perform whatever manual tasks are needed to lock on the target and launch the missile. There is no time for telephone calls, asking for confirmation or lengthy analysis. The crew is trained to perform memorized tasks like a machine - it's "do or die" situation, not thinking time. Any hesitation or delay can mean death.

Of course, this does not justify the action. But it may explain why the missile operator pushed the "launch" button. He was performing things he was trained to do. Based on how tense the situation was and the expected imminent retaliation from US side, he erred on side of safety (his own and his defended area, not the passengers).

The real failure is on the command side that did not properly prepare for such situation. It could be lack of long range radar to identify and assess potential threats with sufficient time (minutes, not seconds), proper training about routine departure routes and flight profiles from the airport for the missile crew, positive radio confirmation about every departing airplane, etc., etc. There is a number of procedural and technical things that could have been implemented to prevent a tragic event like this one, and most likely they were missing.

It is a much larger structural and organization problem than just a "trigger happy" missile operator.

[HarryMann]

Simply said...if we don't know their rules of engagement nor their circumstance at the time, then we really are pissing into the wind a bit.. no?

[Mozella]

Originally Posted by Capi_Cafre'

......... snip............. The launch crew almost certainly made a reasoned decision to fire within the context of its training and the information available at the time.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but based on my experience living in Iran for a number of years and flying with their military I would say a "reasoned decision" is far from certain. You may be right, but I wonder if you are projecting your previous personal experience onto a completely different set of circumstances.

[Lord Farringdon]

Originally Posted by Mozella

I'm not saying you're wrong, but based on my experience living in Iran for a number of years and flying with their military I would say a "reasoned decision" is far from certain. You may be right, but I wonder if you are projecting your previous personal experience onto a completely different set of circumstances.

Agree Mozella. Also, with your previous experience in their military I am guessing you are being more than tactfully polite!!

As I said in a previous post, without some facts, we have nothing to form a valid speculation on, only possible scenarios. To that end I was interested in a post by 'ele' that contained excerpts from "two interviews with Andrey Gorbachevsky, a Russian engineer and developper of radar anti-aircraft missile systems who worked for the Russian State Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS). That is: a person familiar with the Tor system."

The Russian article contains some insights into what the systems operator might see on his radar scope regardless of what he might be expecting ie a large a blip for a commercial airliner a much smaller and more faint blip for a cruise missile or fighter aircraft. He also shed some light on the number of missiles that may have been fired suggesting only one would have been necessary since the target was big and non-maneuvering and firing a second missile would have wasted missiles while also unnecessarily exposing the crew to SEAD. Here is the link: https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/01/11/83411-vse-taki-obezyana-s-granatoy. It can be translated to English.

Now this article cannot be verified as 'fact' as such but if we accept that the article probably does offer some insight into the modus operandi of this particular system, then it's title "Monkey with a Grenade", does suggest a less than 'reasoned decision'. Factors such as the search radar which would follow the flight from shortly after take off from a civilian airfeild and along a known passenger aircraft corridor, the accuracy of the acquisition radar which could determine if there was another object attempting to hide in the shadow of the Ukrainian B737, the transponder identification systems and even an assessment of why this would not have been an intentional shoot down. So, a fair amount of incompetency suggested here and not just leveled at Iran military. He also sniped at Russian missile instructors involved in an accidental shoot down of a Syrian aircraft!

In the article's summary, it suggests that Iran's delay in admitting this was a shoot down was "to hide the degree of collapse of its air defense. Because I will not remember a more serious mistake in the history of air defense".

[rightstuffer]

AlJazeera showing academic from Tehran University claiming that ‘now hearing that transponder not working 30 seconds before missile hit’. I suspect that at 30 seconds before impact the missile launch had already started. More wriggling?

[WillowRun 6-3]

News broadcast this morning in Canada (on a major FM radio station) reports that government of Iran has made arrests, a number of people are detainrd and are undergoing questioning, and that there are reports of proposals or suggestions in Iran of the government empaneling a special (ad hoc) tribunal of some sort, as a court of inquiry or an inquest.
Also reported was the existence of "sensitive" negotiations with several Canadian families over handling of decedents' remains, with Iran not respecting (i.e., following) the families' instructions because Iran does not recognize the dual citizenship of the decedents.
WillowRun 6-3

[gearlever]

Originally Posted by rightstuffer

AlJazeera showing academic from Tehran University claiming that ‘now hearing that transponder not working 30 seconds before missile hit’. I suspect that at 30 seconds before impact the missile launch had already started. More wriggling?

Missile, or missilies?

My impression is the transponder did stop after 1st missile hit....

[triumph61]

Two Missiles.

You Tube

[jolihokistix]

Triumph61, why the date of 2019 10 17 top right?

[triumph61]

I think the Camera Date is not set correctly.

[dave.rooney]

Just saw this on Twitter: t w i t t e r.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1217107084568858625
It appears that the first missile didn't start the fire, and it would explain why the person who took the video of the second missile was pointing his phone in the flight's direction.

Twitter