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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:09
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Quite the debris field.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/...mpression=true
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:12
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GarageYears View Post
Can anyone recall an uncontainable engine failure on a 737 (or equivalent) that:

a) caused a significant inflight fire
b) brought the aircraft down
c) created a crew load such no contact with ATC occurred

- GY
And, d) left a debris field like the one we're seeing photos?

I don't know what happened to this aircraft, but it sure looks like there was a very, very big explosion in flight.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:23
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cloud Cutter View Post
To suggest this was caused by a mechanical event, completely unrelated to the present military conflict, seems pretty ridiculous. Catastrophic mechanical failures leading to this type of inflight break-up simply do not happen in modern transport aircraft. The odds of this happening at anytime, anywhere in the world are minimal. The odds of this happening at a time and place coincident with the conflict are infinitesimal. Media reports of anything other than foul play (deliberate or otherwise) simply lack credibility.

Does anyone disagree with me? Would love to hear the reasoning.
No disagreement. Common sense and Occam's Razor suggest missile, bomb, something powerful going boom. Whether it was deliberate or inadvertent and who may have "done it" are all just speculation at this point.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:26
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Semreh View Post
There are two things that take precedence before communicating with ATC. It is premature to draw a conclusion from (presumed) radio silence.
I am not drawing any conclusions. I do find it difficult though to believe a (simple) engine fire would require such aviation and navigation that a quick mayday to secure a free flight path would be too much.


And if you do return to a busy international airport, communication might be important to at least alert other aircraft and ATC of a deviation of the expected path.

Again, no conclusions, but if I were a betting man, I would not put any money on an engine fire as sole reason.

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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:26
  #105 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by OldnGrounded View Post
. . . but it sure looks like there was a very, very big explosion in flight.
There was a large explosion, about 2 perhaps 3 seconds prior to impact as seen in the video.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:29
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cloud Cutter View Post
. Catastrophic mechanical failures leading to this type of inflight break-up simply do not happen in modern transport aircraft. The odds of this happening at anytime, anywhere in the world are minimal.
A few months ago we'd have said the same about airplanes pointing themselves at the ground

I'd agree that the balance of probabilities points towards an explosive at this point, but something like SW1380 but worse is still a possibility.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:29
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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The lack of crew contact is the most telling piece, with an engine failure I would think that at some point a mayday would be issued especially when carrying extra crew members. The fact Iran is refusing access to the flight recorders and a statement was made within an hour stating engine failure as the cause are all red flags. Tensions were extremely high just after the missed launch by Iran and it is not outside the realms of possibility that everyone would have been a bit trigger happy towards any perceived threats. I hope it is not the case but the evidence seems to be suggesting something more complicated that a poor
y controlled engine failure.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:30
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Water pilot View Post
The plane was apparently under control well enough to attempt to return to base.
What do you think indicates that was the case?

In one of the photos published by the Iranian Students' News Agency either the CVR or FDR is visible in what appears to be electronic debris like notebook computers put in a pile. Hope it doesn't get lost or sold for scrap.

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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:41
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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I have thousands or hours on 737s and have trained on all variants up to the -800.
This event looks totally unrelated to any normal or non-normal situation that has been seen before.
An engine fire does not bring down a plane. An engine failure same. Even double engine failure leaves a 737 flyable via manual reversion - the only type in the world that can still do that.
The icing scenario does not fit either. This plane seems to have exploded in mid air prior to impact looking at the vast debris field with burning parts over a large area. The video of what looks like a Concorde last moments is graphic , if true.
Sherlock Holmes said "eliminate the impossible and your are left with the probable"
So what is left?
It is going to be hard since the authorities in Iran are going to have all the evidence and can release what then wish people to think. I believe that even a regime like the one that exists there will have to apply ICAO protocols to the investigation but it will be like pulling teeth.
The one truth that I still believe in here is that the 737 is still one of the best and safest planes every built and this event alas adds fuel to the fire of the narrative that Boeing is bad for you.
Condolences to all aboard. Very sad indeed
Old Timer
Over.....
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:42
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Airbubba View Post
What do you think indicates that was the case?

In one of the photos published by the Iranian Students' News Agency either the CVR or FDR is visible in what appears to be electronic debris like notebook computers put in a pile. Hope it doesn't get lost or sold for scrap.

Uhh, as most notebooks has a built in camera, it's only logical to collect them as potential source of data for the investigation.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:53
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PashaF View Post
Uhh, as most notebooks has a built in camera, it's only logical to collect them as potential source of data for the investigation.
Don't know if notebook computer cameras would be used much on climbout but I do hope tablets and cellphones will be checked for video and images. Folks do tend to record takeoffs and landings these days even in the darkness.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:09
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Water pilot View Post
Another possibility for the accident to put out there is that the ground crew were nervous (and perhaps exhausted from the funeral/protest), the pilots wanted to get out while the getting was good, and the plane needed to be deiced. It would not be surprising if people were rushing and made a mistake somewhere.
What sort of mistake with deicing would cause the aircraft to erupt into a fireball?! Accidentally calling over the lighter fluid truck?!
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:22
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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Reuters article posted a few minutes ago...

Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down - Canadian sourceOTTAWA

Jan 8 (Reuters) - The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.

The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.

The disaster occurred shortly after Iran launched a series of missile attacks against two military bases in Iraq that housed U.S. troops.

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that the plane was not brought down by a missile. There is no evidence to suggest that," said the source.

The agencies believe the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated.

Boeing said it had no additional comment. Earlier, the company said it was in contact with the airline and was ready to assist.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:33
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PJ2 View Post
There was a large explosion, about 2 perhaps 3 seconds prior to impact as seen in the video.
Isn't it quite possible that if a portion (or all) of a wing failed at that point due to aerodynamic forces, that the rapid release of fuel in the slipstream would create a fireball which could be perceived as an explosion? Much like the fireball which erupted at the breakup of the Space Shuttle Challenger was caused by the failure of the main tank. In that case, It appeared to be an explosion, but in true defined terms, it was not.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:34
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CityofFlight View Post
I don't get the large debris field point. It seems that things spread to an area about 270 m long, and it seems the craft contacted a few brick / concrete walls and a concrete water canal along the route. Why do people think that it's unusual to have in pieces?

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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:39
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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Uncontained engine versus debris field

If there was some massive and unprecedented uncontained engine failure, it seems it would be evident in the debris field - i.e. the first parts to fall to earth, short of the primary debris field, would be engine or nacelle components. It was a relatively young airplane as well, so not getting near fatigue lives and such.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:40
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Water pilot View Post
There was also the minor matter of Iran having just challenged a nuclear armed superpower, so people were out and about looking for incoming and outgoing missile/jet trails (and perhaps not wanting to risk being burned alive inside of their apartments.)

Another possibility for the accident to put out there is that the ground crew were nervous (and perhaps exhausted from the funeral/protest), the pilots wanted to get out while the getting was good, and the plane needed to be deiced. It would not be surprising if people were rushing and made a mistake somewhere.
Indeed. Not only would Iran's SAM defences been on edge at the time, is it not highly likely that the US would have been overhead watching what was happening?

Perhaps the SAM was intended for a US military spy plane?

It might suit both sides to conceal the cause.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:41
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flaphandlemover View Post
The engine picture on AVHerald has outward bend wholes....
Uncontained engine failure with catastrophic result?

There also seems to be some sort of heat (whitened metal) discoloration visible.....

Any thoughts on that picture?
what picture ?????
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:52
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lomapaseo View Post
what picture ?????
Probably this one:
http://avherald.com/img/uia_b738_ur-..._200108_5a.jpg

And I would think no.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:56
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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Image circulating on social media, Babak Taghvaee is an expat Irani aviation writer:








And:


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