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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 8th Jan 2020, 14:52
  #81 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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Originally Posted by lcolman View Post
What you are suggesting amounts to censorship of this subject, which by the way is something that the news websites seem to be doing by closing their comments sections on this subject.

I would suggest that sites like this are a fantastic source to disseminate real information regarding touchy subjects like this that are not moderated by the media outlets, all of whom show an overwhelming desire to appease Iran.

I don't suggest that I know whether or not this aircraft was shot down or had a catastrophic failure of some sort, but it does a disservice to the people who died on that flight to assist in hiding the truth - and that begins with censoring subjects related to it.
You may be right. Equally, given the volatility of the location at present, and the unpredictable nature of the leadership of the protagonists, more people stand to get hurt with any over reaction, by either side, for which speculation is a great fuel source. There is a non zero possibility of this being a Guns of August type moment in history, and if Tuchman's writings showed anything it was that the consequences of actions are poorly predicted by any side, whoever is involved. To that end, leaving this event to the AI and CI investigators is not a bad thing, they will be able to ascertain causation as a technical fault or criminal matter in their own deliberations, sticky pebbles or not.

Truth is written by the victors, if any remain to write it.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 15:39
  #82 (permalink)  
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A bit more fact-free speculation.


As the problems appear to have occurred at about 5000' AGL if it were brought down by ground fire it would need to be a weapon effective at that distance from where it was fired, that rules out rifle fire, don't know the effective range of the Stinger and such like.


For that amount of disintegration before impact, if it was an on board bomb, I think it would have to have been a big one.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 15:48
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Bartender View Post
Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...
Good find!

The parts do seem to match up. There appears to have been some cutting of that fuselage part between the two images being recorded. See oval in yellow. Cut by recovery/rescue teams?


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Old 8th Jan 2020, 15:52
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by iggie View Post
An airline official is quoted as saying 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight'.

Can anybody explain/elaborate on this?
Lots of people speaking several languages. Likely he meant they added flight attendants who could speak Farsi.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 16:12
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TEEEJ View Post
Good find!

The parts do seem to match up. There appears to have been some cutting of that fuselage part between the two images being recorded. See oval in yellow. Cut by recovery/rescue teams?

With regards to the cutting, it looks like there may be a shadow on the low res TV image. It's likely any cutting would have dislodged the pebbles/dirt. Perhaps play with the brightness/contrast settings.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 16:14
  #86 (permalink)  
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A bit more fact-free speculation.


As the problems appear to have occurred at about 5000' AGL if it were brought down by ground fire it would need to be a weapon effective at that distance from where it was fired, that rules out rifle fire, don't know the effective range of the Stinger and such like.


For that amount of disintegration before impact, if it was an on board bomb, I think it would have to have been a big one.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 16:23
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ripton View Post
With regards to the cutting, it looks like there may be a shadow on the low res TV image. It's likely any cutting would have dislodged the pebbles/dirt. Perhaps play with the brightness/contrast settings.
I see that not as a "cut out" on the picture on the left, but a further piece of the fuselage closer to the camera and bent up upwards - it's dark and unlit and blocking the view of the piece of the side behind it.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 16:25
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ripton View Post
With regards to the cutting, it looks like there may be a shadow on the low res TV image. It's likely any cutting would have dislodged the pebbles/dirt. Perhaps play with the brightness/contrast settings.
Indeed, it's a piece of fuselage that has torn and bent up. People are so bad at interpreting low res images, they shouldn't even try.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 16:56
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by donotdespisethesnake View Post
Indeed, it's a piece of fuselage that has torn and bent up. People are so bad at interpreting low res images, they shouldn't even try.
Apologies. Thanks for everyone that pointed out my poor interpretation. You are quite correct.



High resolution at following link

https://inews.co.uk/images-i.jpimedi...ane-083866.jpg
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 16:58
  #90 (permalink)  

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I suspect that I know the answer but does the 737NG transfer maintenance data on ACARS?
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 17:12
  #91 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ghostdancer View Post
Politics before flight safety I fear.
Boeing doesn't typically read and evaluate data recorders after accident flights, so there's no reason it should receive this one. If anyone has information suggesting that Iran intends to withhold the FDR & CVR from appropriate investigators (BEA, perhaps), let us know.

Last edited by OldnGrounded; 8th Jan 2020 at 17:15. Reason: Clarification
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 17:32
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sky9 View Post
I suspect that I know the answer but does the 737NG transfer maintenance data on ACARS?
It can if you opt for it. It's an expensive option. Not sure if UA have or have not.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 17:34
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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U.S. Secretary of State statement on PS 752.


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Old 8th Jan 2020, 17:54
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by A. Muse View Post
Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....
The timing of the crash is around 6:18 am local time, which is a very reasonable timing for morning prayers. Might be someone on the way to or from a local mosque. There is not much happening around that time of the day, and airport being close I think it is pretty normal to film a fireball you spot in the sky with your phone and chase it to see what happens.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 17:55
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OldnGrounded View Post
Boeing doesn't typically read and evaluate data recorders after accident flights, so there's no reason it should receive this one. If anyone has information suggesting that Iran intends to withhold the FDR & CVR from appropriate investigators (BEA, perhaps), let us know.
It's not a question of "withholding" access to the recorders.

Annex 13 requires that "the State conducting the investigation shall arrange for the read-out of the flight recorders without delay". It goes on to recommend that if the investigating state doesn't have that capability, it should use the facilities made available to it by other states, taking into account the capabilities and location of the facility in question and the likely timescale.

No third party has an automatic right to demand access to the FDR or CVR. In the unlikely event that the Iranians take up the US offer of assistance in this area, it would be the NTSB that reads the recorders. More likely, as alluded to above, it will be the BEA or BFU (or maybe even the AAIB).

Last edited by DaveReidUK; 8th Jan 2020 at 18:31. Reason: spelling
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:04
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
It's not a question of "witholding" access to the recorders.

Annex 13 requires that "the State conducting the investigation shall arrange for the read-out of the flight recorders without delay". It goes on to recommend that if the investigating state doesn't have that capability, it should use the facilities made available to it by other states, taking into account the capabilities and location of the facility in question and the likely timescale.

No third party has an automatic right to demand access to the FDR or CVR. In the unlikely event that the Iranians take up the US offer of assistance in this area, it would be the NTSB that reads the recorders. More likely, as alluded to above, it will be the BEA or BFU (or maybe even the AAIB).
Yes, absolutely. I didn't mean to suggest that Iran was under an obligation to share.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:14
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OldnGrounded View Post
Boeing doesn't typically read and evaluate data recorders after accident flights, so there's no reason it should receive this one. If anyone has information suggesting that Iran intends to withhold the FDR & CVR from appropriate investigators (BEA, perhaps), let us know.
There are various sources reporting the Mehr news agency quoting the head of Iranís Civil Aviation Authority (Ali Abedzadeh) as saying something to the effect that the black boxes would be examined in Iran under ICAO rules. However, I've not yet found a specific quote on the Mehr news agency site that sounds anything like that.

But if he did say that, then adding [words to the effect of] 'we won't send them to the manufacturer' would make a lot more sense.

Of course that makes for a far less juicy soundbite than "Iran will not provide Boeing with the black boxes", as if Boeing were somehow expecting to be given them.

It seems there is a lot being lost (and gained) in the translation and interpretation.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 18:17
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tetsuo View Post
The timing of the crash is around 6:18 am local time, which is a very reasonable timing for morning prayers. Might be someone on the way to or from a local mosque. There is not much happening around that time of the day, and airport being close I think it is pretty normal to film a fireball you spot in the sky with your phone and chase it to see what happens.
There was also the minor matter of Iran having just challenged a nuclear armed superpower, so people were out and about looking for incoming and outgoing missile/jet trails (and perhaps not wanting to risk being burned alive inside of their apartments.)

Another possibility for the accident to put out there is that the ground crew were nervous (and perhaps exhausted from the funeral/protest), the pilots wanted to get out while the getting was good, and the plane needed to be deiced. It would not be surprising if people were rushing and made a mistake somewhere.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:00
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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The engine picture on AVHerald has outward bend wholes....
Uncontained engine failure with catastrophic result?

There also seems to be some sort of heat (whitened metal) discoloration visible.....

Any thoughts on that picture?
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 19:03
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Can anyone recall an uncontainable engine failure on a 737 (or equivalent) that:

a) caused a significant inflight fire
b) brought the aircraft down
c) created a crew load such no contact with ATC occurred

- GY
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