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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 8th Jan 2020, 08:55
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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But the holes are all over the airframe! From the vertical fin to the fuselage to the wing section, everywhere. Take a look at the photos. Spots, dots, holes. Too many of them, you dont even need to do your best to see them immediately....
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:06
  #42 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Helix Von Smelix View Post
Dots on the aircraft skin could be telling.
They are telling. They are of a regular pattern. Only one sort of event causes any such regularity, and due to that, I believe this thread should be suspended for the sake of public safety.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:07
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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At the moment there are only two pieces of solid information. The video shows an in-flight fire with some break-up already happening (looking close it is possible to see at one point glowing pieces shredding) and just before the final impact (but still in the air) there is a major flare-up. The post-crash photos show clear evidence for external shrapnel damage on a section of the fuselage (the damage seen on the VS and the engine exhaust cowl is not conclusive, those could have happened during ground impact).

The combination of the above is EITHER the result of a catastrophic uncontained engine failure, OR a missile strike, full stop. In principle, design and certification should preclude the former, but it still does happen, cannot be ruled out at this stage.

While the evidence is certainly suspicious, knowing Iran well (have just been there last October) I find an accidential missile hit rather unlikely. While panic and incompetence under the circumstances is entirely plausible, Iran is a very tightly controlled society, and the news of such a blunder would have reached the highest levels very rapidly. The accident happened in the dark, and the first reports show burning wreckage in darkness. Had it been a missile launched by Iranian forces, the area would have been cordoned off and no photos with incriminating evidence would have been permitted to surface, especially not on government controlled news outlets. There may be incompetence among the military, but certainly not among the news censors.

Last edited by andrasz; 8th Jan 2020 at 10:17.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:17
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, if you look at the crash scene, there is no aircraft at all. if it came down 737 max style, there would be a crater and nothing left, if it flew down, there would be a crash trail and large parts of the air frame intact and on fire, if it blew up in mid air there would be a very large debris field and not very many large bits of the air frame intact. So its either a catastrophic explosion in the air caused by ?, engine explosion, missile fragmentation, or bomb, but with a bomb fragmentation would inside to out, rather than what looks like can be seen.
Ukraine has withdrawn its earlier statement, so interesting, watch this space. They have the black boxes so I wonder what will be on the CVR and did the pilots know anything about it.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:29
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Timing is extremely suspicious but i donít really see the point for the iranians to shoot down an aircraft on their own soil. It could only worsen the already very delicate situation.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:34
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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BBC are reporting that the aircraft had had it's most recent scheduled maintenance on Monday.... another avenue to investigate.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:43
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, the absence of any impact crater and no recognisable parts of the fuselage, apart from the vertical stabiliser, increases the likelihood of significant airframe disintegration prior to hitting the ground. What we have not seen is the debris field along the flightpath, which would provide much more suggestive evidence. The video of the plane in flight definitely shows it to be on fire, with some limited trailing disintegration (although being dark it's impossible to see the extent) and a steep downward trajectory followed by the large explosion on hitting the ground.

There's nothing in any of this to rule in or rule out a possible cause, so statements about the cause from Iran or Ukraine at this stage can have no validity (any more than guesswork on this forum). It has been reported that there was no emergency call from the flightdeck, so that adds nothing either.

The airframe was only three years old, although recent maintenance just 2 days ago is bound to arouse suspicion. Until there is more evidence, anything is speculation. The BBC is reporting that Ukrainian officials are now rowing back on early assertions of a "technical problem" with an engine and are now saying investigators need to ascertain the cause.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:50
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by susier View Post
The officials have now withdrawn that statement, according to the Telegraph newspaper
Reuters reports: "Both black boxes have been found"

Jerusalem Post reports: "Iran civil aviation org says will not give black box to Boeing"

Clarification: Its not clear whether the inference was no-one would receive the black box or just not boeing. Waiting for a better translation of their statement to surface

Last edited by unworry; 8th Jan 2020 at 10:05. Reason: add clarification
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:53
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Do we have a registration? I'd be looking at how far it's flown since completing the technical on Monday 6th Jan presumably in Kyiv.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 09:55
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Auxtank View Post
Do we have a registration? I'd be looking at how far it's flown since completing the technical on Monday 6th Jan presumably in Kyiv.
UR-PSR 3 year old
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:05
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Well, she's done a fair few miles since coming out the tech shop on Monday...

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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:17
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Iran says it will not hand over the flight recorders. What happens in this case? Something to hide perhaps?
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:26
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by IBE8720 View Post
You can determine from a photograph, that hole on the fusleage are absolutely fragment damage, but similar holes around the engine area are inconclusive?
There is a lot you can achieve with a Mk I eyeball without testing. On the fuselage section there are a number of quite regularly spaced holes, and all the holes have clearly inward bending edges. It is had to imagine anything but shrapnel damage, but of course it is impossible to say whether from an uncontained engine, of an external explosion (or engine failure from a missile...). The engine exhaust cowl has two holes, one large with outward bending edges, and a smaller indistict one with apparently inward bending ones. The photo is not clear enough to tell. The VS has a single puncture mark, it is possible that it was caused by an object during ground impact.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:29
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sceh View Post
Iran says it will not hand over the flight recorders. What happens in this case? Something to hide perhaps?
I think that is not unprecedented. For some strange reason, they do not appear to trust the Trump administration. My guess is that they will retain control of the analysis and data retrieval with the assistance of experts from a country more friendly to them. My money is on Germany.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:32
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by get_over_it View Post
I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats?
No, they were Iranians. Canada has one of the most numerrous Iranian diaspora. Iran considers all born in iran as citizens irrespectve of what passports they hold, hence the difference in the nationality counts from Iranian and foreign sources.

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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:33
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz View Post
The engine exhaust cowl has two holes, one large with outward bending edges, and a smaller indistict one with apparently inward bending ones. The photo is not clear enough to tell. The VS has a single puncture mark, it is possible that it was caused by an object during ground impact.
Which photo are you using for that analysis?
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:39
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by get_over_it View Post
I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats? Shocking event.
20 were students (per
)
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:39
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Auxtank View Post
Which photo are you using for that analysis?
The last one before the map here, I would imagine:
Crash: UIA B738 at Tehran on Jan 8th 2020, lost height after departure
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:40
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RTM Boy View Post
How do you know, especially given the current situation? From what Frank Gardner says, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a law unto itself.
Nonsense. The IRG answers directly to the supreme leader (not to the civilian government). It is a disciplined and well trained force and it does exactly what is ordered, nothing more nothing less. The regular Iranian military is another story, sheer incompetence from their part is conceivable, however rather unlikely given the apparent unrestricted access to the accident site for local journalists. If there were anything to hide, there are few better than the Iranian authorities for acheiving it.
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Old 8th Jan 2020, 10:45
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
Would suggest that this particular subject is so sensitive to the welfare of a very large number of people around the world that it be suspended. The usual level of rhetoric that occurs on these pages may end up being consequential to actions by others. This is a dangerous time, and a dangerous situation, and those in charge have shown a propensity to use "intel" from any source, irrespective of veracity.
What you are suggesting amounts to censorship of this subject, which by the way is something that the news websites seem to be doing by closing their comments sections on this subject.

I would suggest that sites like this are a fantastic source to disseminate real information regarding touchy subjects like this that are not moderated by the media outlets, all of whom show an overwhelming desire to appease Iran.

I don't suggest that I know whether or not this aircraft was shot down or had a catastrophic failure of some sort, but it does a disservice to the people who died on that flight to assist in hiding the truth - and that begins with censoring subjects related to it.
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