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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 10th Jan 2020, 17:18
  #341 (permalink)  
 
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For the discussion here, a couple of excerpts from ICAO Annex 13 concerning preservation of evidence and removal of the wreckage.



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Old 10th Jan 2020, 18:06
  #342 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ErwinS View Post
They admitted and paid compensation. Dont talk nonsens....
In addition to compensation issues, the agreement has stated that "Ukraine is not legally responsible for the accident that occurred to the plane and free of any obligations regarding it".Commenting on the agreement, Gen. Oleksandr Kuz'muk, the ex-Minister of Defense sacked after the accident,[25] told media that "the payments were a humane action, not the admission of guilt".Later as a deputy prime minister in the government of Viktor Yanukovych, Kuzmuk denied that the Ukrainian military was responsible for the shoot-down over the Black Sea, although Ukraine agreed to pay damages.

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Old 10th Jan 2020, 18:22
  #343 (permalink)  
 
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In an effort to make this a proper PPRuNe thread: some related METAR information.

OIIE 080300Z 27006KT CAVOK M01/M04 Q1021
OIIE 080200Z 28006KT CAVOK M01/M04 Q1021 (METAR current at time of departure)
OIIE 080100Z 26006KT CAVOK M01/M04 Q1021
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 18:23
  #344 (permalink)  
 
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From Eurocontrol NOP : 10JAN 18:18

The following updated information has been provided by EASA for situational awareness:

In the wake of recent events in the Middle East, an extraordinary meeting of the Integrated EU Aviation security Risk Assessment Group held on Friday January 10th, 2020 concerning the use of the airspace of Iran (FIR Tehran (OIIX) as well as Iraq (FIR Baghdad (ORBB), evaluated the impact on the security and safety of all types of commercial flight operations in the region .

Available information from various sources has been reviewed as well as intelligence assessments from Member States and information from airlines and other relevant parties, so as to perform the most accurate assessment possible of the potential impact on civil traffic in the airspace of Iraq and Iran.

On the basis of existing information on these events, including the crash of a Ukrainian passenger aircraft near Tehran on January 8th, the Integrated EU Aviation security Risk Assessment Group assessed that the risk of operations over Iraq is HIGH at all altitudes, and HIGH over Iran below FL 250.

On that basis it is recommended as a precautionary measure that the overflight of Iraqi airspace should be avoided, as well as for the Iran airspace below FL 250, until further notice.

The Group came also to the conclusion that the situation in the region remains unstable and agreed to continue to monitor the situation to assess whether there is an increase or decrease of the risk for EU aircraft operators as a result of the evolution of the threat.

Please take this information and any other relevant guidance into account in your own risk assessments.


NMOC Brussels
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 18:36
  #345 (permalink)  
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andrasz
It appears increasingly likely that the civilian government was kept in the dark until the evidence became overwhelming, but by that time they were locked in denial. There must be a huge amount of poltical arm twisting going on at the moment on how will blame be apportioned, what heads will fall, and how to present matters without losing face, with various political players trying to take advantage of the situation.
Sounds just like any govt anywhere in the world ... deny everything. (Egyptair 990]
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 18:58
  #346 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GarageYears View Post
Can anyone recall an uncontainable engine failure on a 737 (or equivalent) that:

a) caused a significant inflight fire
b) brought the aircraft down
c) created a crew load such no contact with ATC occurred

- GY
How about a gaping hole in the fuselage that resulted in a passenger being sucked out?
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel...-a9210171.html
or
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-...blowup/9678856

Two instances of fairly new 737's suffering catastrophic engine failure. All it needs is for all that shrapnel to destroy a significant portion of wing and fuel tank and you get a fireball in the sky.

It could also be a SAM after all missiles were flying that night.

You could also speculate MAC with a drone - I am sure an unnamed nation or two will have had some rather large RPAS flying around and keeping tabs on things.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 18:59
  #347 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
Strange only if you don't understand politics and the concept of face (and the saving thereof). (This is a thing not unique to any particular country)
It might be worth wandering back in time to the MH 370 event/investigation and the response of the local government to that event.
Remember the bit about the radar site near Panang, and the what they radar data did or didn't show?
And as far as denial in the face of facts, Egypt Air Flt 990 remains a classic of the genre.
You are right. and further to that, aviation and politics may be oil and water, but separating them is not going to happen. Even with a critical need for truth to the benefit of all, the fog of partisanship, liability, and blame will ensure what we see is not necessarily what we are going to believe. The most compelling facts and conclusions are tinted by the lens we choose to view them through, evidenced by much of what has been posted on this and other forums. The bottom line however, is this. No politics, no argument and therefore no discussion. Politics getting in the way of truth is what this is really all about. But let us not forget that.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 19:52
  #348 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TigerHeavy View Post
Wow!!! Horse,stable,bolted spring to mind.
Can somebody who really knows about these things tell me to what altitude a SAM can be fired. TIA
For the Russian-made TOR-M system (NATO designation SA-15 Gauntlet), which is the "suspect" system in this event - 20,000 feet/6000m
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 20:26
  #349 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RTD1 View Post
So, we have:
- US military officials stating that they have satellite detection of the search radar turning on, followed by the IR blip of the missile being launched, followed by the IR blip of the plane being hit, followed by the plane crash.
- Video of what appears to be a missile being launched and hitting the plane.
- Video of the plane in flames in the air followed by the crash.
- Photos of the wreckage that appear to show penetration of the fuselage by external shrapnel of some sort.
- The PMs of both Canada and the UK saying they believe that the plane was shot down and have evidence to support it.

I mean, I get it, it's not official until the investigation is completed and the final report issued, but based on the above it seems pretty likely that the plane was shot down.
The Dutch government also reports their intelligence service also determined the aircraft was shot down (based on own research).
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 20:28
  #350 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz View Post
This is compounded by the fact that any admission and release of details would give away much information about the (dis)functionality of the Iranian chain of command, which is understandably the last thing they would want to do at the moment.
As ever you make some wise observations andrasz. I think the one I've quoted above might have a significant impact on this accident investigation and the establishment of the truth.

If this was a shoot down and we follow the causal chain of this event back far enough, we are talking about a situation in which certain countries didn't want Iran to get hold of nuclear weapons, that led to tension in which a mistake might have been made.

The problem for those countries is how to stop Iran, especially when several of them have nuclear weapons themselves and there are others in the international community sympathetic to the idea that if one country has them then they don't have the right to stop others doing the same.

If the investigation into this accident concludes that it was the result of a missile, and the itchy/clumsy finger that pushed the button did so as a result of the dysfunctionality you refer to, then it might pose the question as to what might have happened if the missile had been a nuclear armed one and the accidental target was Israel or Saudi Arabia, rather than a 737.

The Iranian authorities are going to have to demonstrate (via the accident investigation if possible) that they are fully in control of all their weapon systems and they never have accidents. Otherwise the number of countries lining up to say Iran should never have nukes is only going to increase. In a strange way this terrible tragedy has the potential to give Trump a kind of victory after all.

If I'm right in linking these issues then it means the accident investigation is going to be difficult and very, very protracted.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 21:22
  #351 (permalink)  
 
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Strange coclusions

"...

The Iranian authorities are going to have to demonstrate (via the accident investigation if possible) that they are fully in control of all their weapon systems and they never have accidents. Otherwise the number of countries lining up to say Iran should never have nukes is only going to increase. In a strange way this terrible tragedy has the potential to give Trump a kind of victory after all.

...."
Your line of reasoning would take as far. Where we similarly to conclude that because of Iran Air Flight 655 was shot down by the US Navy allegedly due to confusion on the command centre of USS Vincennes the Navy should be denied having any cruise missile-equipped vessels?
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 21:50
  #352 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Coborn C6 View Post

If the investigation into this accident concludes that it was the result of a missile, and the itchy/clumsy finger that pushed the button did so as a result of the dysfunctionality you refer to, then it might pose the question as to what might have happened if the missile had been a nuclear armed one and the accidental target was Israel or Saudi Arabia, rather than a 737.

The Iranian authorities are going to have to demonstrate (via the accident investigation if possible) that they are fully in control of all their weapon systems and they never have accidents. Otherwise the number of countries lining up to say Iran should never have nukes is only going to increase. In a strange way this terrible tragedy has the potential to give Trump a kind of victory after all.

If I'm right in linking these issues then it means the accident investigation is going to be difficult and very, very protracted.
The very same argument could be made of the other nations that have mistakenly downed airliners. SAM battery command and control would have to be, by definition, looser than for any kind of strategic weapon system for obvious reasons. I do not think that you can compare nuclear launch failsafes to an anti-aircraft battery nor the trigger finger of a soldier in the field. You'd hope the SAM would not be subject to human error, but clearly thatís not the case.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 22:11
  #353 (permalink)  
 
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What might normally take several days to determine was announced while the devices were still laying amid smoking debris.
They weren't claiming to know the status of the internals. Elsewhere Farsi speakers have said the quote was regarding the external appearance of the recorders.

They state the recorders have an internal memory, and "they" (recorders, not memory module) are showing physical damage.

Seem wires got crossed and not realised the subject "they" changed in the course of those few sentences...
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 22:20
  #354 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Widger View Post
History tells us that even more mature and capable States around the world get it wrong.

In 1998 the USS Vincennes, a state of art guided missile cruiser with highly trained warfare specialists, shoots down an Iranian Airbus flying south out of Bandar Abbas, with the correct squawk, following an airway and in contact with ATC. 290 deaths

The shooting down of a UK GR4 by a US Patriot Missile in 2003 (Gulf War II). Edited thanks

The shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine by Separatists or others unknown - 298 deaths

Aeroflot 902 in 1962 with 80+ deaths during an air defence exercise

Siberian 1812 in 2001 during a Ukrain military exercise 78 dead,
KAL 007 as well springs to mind...

I'm wondering why on earth civvie traffic was still operating- I know visitors likely wanted to get the heck out of dodge but it does seem fairly close to be flying at that point.

Flights have being diverted around Iraqi/Iranian airspace in the past for much less...
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 23:11
  #355 (permalink)  
 
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From the 'semi-official' Fars News Agency via Google Translate:

Economic / Road and Housing
4:31 - 1/8/12 [apparently January 10, 2020]

The cause of the crash of the Ukrainian plane will be announced tomorrow

The cause of the collapse of the Ukrainian passenger plane will be announced tomorrow after the Air Accident Commission meeting.



A Fars reporter was informed that there will be a meeting tomorrow with the domestic and foreign parties involved in the crash of the Ukrainian plane, and that they will publish the reason for the plane crash after reviewing the preliminary report.

An informed source told Fars that the current speculation is not valid until the end of tomorrow's meeting and official announcement.

End of message /
Original Persian text:
خبرنگار فارس مطلع شد، فردا با حضور طرفین داخلی و خارجی مرتبط با حادثه سقوط هواپیمای اوکراینی جلسه*ای برگزار می*شود و پس از بررسی گزارش مقدماتی دلیل سقوط هواپیما را منتشر خواهند کرد
https://www.farsnews.com/news/139810...ود


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Old 10th Jan 2020, 23:27
  #356 (permalink)  
 
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Salute!

Whoa, Bubba!

Press release could be interestng, huh?

I found my original posts regarding "accidental" missile launches, and it is on page 11/12 #227 or so. Mozella and I commented on the missile theory.

It is entirely possible the launch of a missile salvo is completely "accidental" if the battery was tracking the "target" and "practicing" and a safety interlock was not in place or failed. And we should not forget that the military in the area may have been in a high state of alert.

No matter. The whole thing is a very sad thing.

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Old 11th Jan 2020, 00:23
  #357 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stuka Child View Post
Given that aforementioned intelligence sources speak of two missiles hitting the 737, how likely is it that the plane would have remained structurally intact and capable of flight after the double impact? I
No... two missiles were said to be launched maybe 3. But statement implied only one struck.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 00:50
  #358 (permalink)  
 
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The most popular theory of this tragedy is that an Iranian SAM brought the airplane down. I have seen no reason to disbelieve it, but still, a theory.

What I am a bit amazed by is the political readiness to assume it was done in error, not with intent. What possible evidence is there for such a proposition?

There have been news reports that many of the passengers were leaving Iran for fear of a war. The airplane had been delayed, but finally permitted to depart. Why was it delayed? Why was it important that it depart? What kind of decision-making was in play prior to departure and could there be any relationship to the decision to lock up and launch SAMs? Could there have been multiple Iranian government and military agencies involved with different agendas? Just questions, no assertions. Let’s remember though that solid evidence has not been provided.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 01:10
  #359 (permalink)  
 
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If it was brought down by a SAM, it had to have been intentional. These things don't happen by accident in Iran any more than they could ever happen in the US by accident.

If intentional, it could only have been because it was hijacked or cyber-jacked. No nation would slit its own political and economic throat by exploding a jet full of its own people, and putting its entire airline industry at risk.

Support for a hijack/cyber-jack - rendering a SAM merely a response, not a cause - is found by extending eastward the straight line from [point of last FR24 contact] to [point of impact]. Even if one allows space (1km?) for a right turn, we see that PS752 was in fact headed straight for downtown Tehran. If that's where it was headed, a SAM shoot-down finally makes sense: to protect the seat of Iranian power.

Any other SAM theory is so absurd, it's sad.

Last edited by Wind_Tunnel; 11th Jan 2020 at 01:13. Reason: typo
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 01:10
  #360 (permalink)  
 
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People should go back and read the report, or better yet watch the videos, done by the Dutch for MH17. The amount of information they were able to get from a variety of sources was amazing. In the end, they had cell phone intercepts of those directly involved and their commanders, social media photos that showed the missile launcher movements as well as missing missiles, satellite shots, parts of the missile from wreckage/bodies, paint from the missile on aircraft parts, radar records and a lot more. In this case, I would think the U.S. and its' allies all have that and perhaps much more. I can only imagine the surveillance on Tehran right now. Unless Iran just denies total access to everything, the truth will come out as it did in the MH17 case.
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