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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 10th Jan 2020, 11:15
  #321 (permalink)  
 
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There appear to be some very naive comments on this thread and an assumption that in Iran there exists a fully integrated and coordinated civil military system. History tells us that even more mature and capable States around the world get it wrong.

In 1998 the USS Vincennes, a state of art guided missile cruiser with highly trained warfare specialists, shoots down an Iranian Airbus flying south out of Bandar Abbas, with the correct squawk, following an airway and in contact with ATC. 290 deaths

The shooting down of a UK GR4 by a US Patriot Missile in 2003 (Gulf War II). Edited thanks

The shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine by Separatists or others unknown - 298 deaths

Aeroflot 902 in 1962 with 80+ deaths during an air defence exercise

Siberian 1812 in 2001 during a Ukrain military exercise 78 dead

There are lots of examples of deliberate and accidental shootdowns across the decades. Some of the accidental ones will be down to poor procedures, not following safety routines, incompetence, fear, disregard for safety, ignorance, lack of identification equipment, lack of training or a whole combination of everything. Even a highly technical system can get it wrong and present to someone on high alert, a hostile target that is in fact a civilian aircraft with innocent souls onboard. I echo the comments of a previous poster in regardless of how much more fuel it will cost, shut such airspace down and do not allow aircraft to fly across conflict areas.

May they all rest in peace,

Last edited by Widger; 10th Jan 2020 at 12:00.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 11:23
  #322 (permalink)  
 
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Iranian investigators showing the media the black boxes Can anyone translate what they are saying?
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 11:54
  #323 (permalink)  
 
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With any luck the "accident" might just have occurred at the time to avoid many more unnecessary deaths in what could easily have escalated quickly in to tit for tat attacks. Let's hope the shock of shooting down a commercial aircraft shows Iran they're not quite ready for a war.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 12:27
  #324 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
...the aircraft was on the SID under the control of Merhabad ACC. and was cleared to FL260 , so mis-identification is very unlikely The attitude of the Iranian CAA does not lend towards a cover up ..
So are you suggesting that this snafu was completely different from the mistaken shoot-down of MH17 whose miss-identification was more likely? Do tell.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 12:29
  #325 (permalink)  
 
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First report I heard on BBC R4 at about 7.20 am was that the aeroplane was down and the UIA were reporting it as an engine problem and not thought to be terrorism related.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 12:57
  #326 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Coborn C6 View Post
Could you please quote some examples of these first reports and leaks?

My recollection is that people were remarking on the absence of comment (from anyone but the Iranians). Something I posted on this forum as possibly explained by an unwillingness to say anything that might inflame an already tense situation.

I don't remember reading anything - other than official Iranian reports - that suggested "no shoot down".
Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down - Canadian source reuters

Search that in google and you'll be linked to an article that states:
OTTAWA, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.

The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)
By then checking David Ljunggren's twitter, you will find a tweet about:
"Five security sources - three Americans, one European and one Canadian - told Reuters the initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile"
I would link you myself, but I cannot as a new user.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 13:07
  #327 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TigerHeavy View Post
I'm curious, does anybody have access to the Iranian notams that were in effect for the day of this tragic incident?
It seems to me that the onus to operate into or out off Iranian airspace would be the operators responsibility.
As far as I can tell the aircraft in question was sat on the ground in IKA having arrived the previous evening. The crew operating the aircraft on flight PS752 IKA/KBP would or should have been made aware of the situation wrt the attack launched by Iran on the two bases in Iraq.I would be astounded if they hadn't been notified accordingly during their briefing.

So the question is who, given that the aircraft would potentially be flying through at the very least significantly dangerous airspace, approved the flight for operational release?

The operator has a duty not to knowingly endanger the passengers lives.
Your point on NOTAMS will hopefully be answered soon, and is an interesting question.
As for the rest, you are invited to read the thread before throwing out an opinion.
This post (because someone bothered to help us all by doing some research) and FR 24 show a case of "air ops as normal in Iran" - this operator (from the Ukraine) is hardly alone in simply going about their usual business.
potentially be flying through at the very least significantly dangerous airspace,
Sounds like a lawyer trying to create justification for a law suit. Ghoulish, at best.



Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 10th Jan 2020 at 13:19.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 13:31
  #328 (permalink)  
 
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Dear lonewof_50
Thanks for your reply. I'm not a ghoulish lawyer.I spent almost 40 years as a flight operations senior manager within commercial aviation. Prior to commenting I had read the whole thread and then read it again.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 13:52
  #329 (permalink)  
 
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Ukraine never admitted, that they shot down flight 1812 in 2001.
Even after pieces of shrapnel were found, and voices of pilots on CVR talking that they were hit by the rocket.

Ukraine denies everything about 2001 crash, Russia denies everything about MH17, Iran will probably forever deny everything too.

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Old 10th Jan 2020, 14:02
  #330 (permalink)  
 
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There is nothing wrong or untoward about removing the wreckage from the impact site. They have had enough time to document the geo-locations of the major pieces and at the same time to remove the human remains to a separate location.

The very few worldwide experts that arrive after this removal will have no trouble in assessing the mechanical state of the aircraft as to an inherent fault (e.g engines) vs external caused in-flight damages. This all goes with the expertise and integrity of the investigators. It won't take more than a couple of hours to confirm the engine condition either from internal or exterior events. The aircraft structure itself will need a more labour intensive examination to separate in-flight damage from impact damage.

The follow-on issues of suggesting human blame and/or contribution will use up most of the onward discussions including the wild conspiracy theories sure to follow.

So far I have seen from the photos some unresolved unusual damage to some structures but at the same time if an investigators eyeball is available it should be easy to resolve causes. As I said much earlier one should not assume holes in structures mean anything beyond crash impact, unless such holes can be traced back in a trajectory analysis to a common source. That's why it is so helpful to have all the major parts in a small common area undercover from outside.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 14:05
  #331 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dave Gittins View Post
First report I heard on BBC R4 at about 7.20 am was that the aeroplane was down and the UIA were reporting it as an engine problem and not thought to be terrorism related.
This is from the Aviation Herald - he reports chronologically. First reactions here:

Ukraine's Embassy to the Iran tweeted that UIA confirmed their aircraft crashed near Tehran Airport after takeoff. According to first information all occupants have been killed. A task force and a hotline for relatives has been set up. The Embassy subsequently added a statement on their website stating: "According to preliminary information from the Iranian side, the plane crashed due to an engine failure due to technical reasons. The version of the terrorist attack or rocket attack is currently excluded."
Crash: UIA B738 at Tehran on Jan 8th 2020, lost height after departure, aircraft on fire after missile hit
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 14:35
  #332 (permalink)  
 
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Another two videos of burning aircraft in the sky. Last video shows burning plane 58 seconds before impact with the ground. The plane was in the air for another 4 minutes before first missile hit. (If I can remember security cam showed 19min 36sec at impact.) Explosions in the air was probably the reason people started to take video.

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Old 10th Jan 2020, 14:43
  #333 (permalink)  
 
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Yet another video from another angle:
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 15:26
  #334 (permalink)  
 
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Looking at the videos I cannot see anything to support the aircraft being engaged by the ground, above any other normal accident cause.

The only thing the footage (if related to this crash) prove, is that fire has broken out in the air, before the impact with the ground. This is absolutely insufficient to draw any conclusions as to any preliminary cause.

Our Guardian newspaper in Britain are reporting that Iranian Investigators are going to allow Canadian Investigators and Boeing to attend.

Mark
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 15:26
  #335 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by liider View Post
Ukraine never admitted, that they shot down flight 1812 in 2001.
Even after pieces of shrapnel were found, and voices of pilots on CVR talking that they were hit by the rocket.

Ukraine denies everything about 2001 crash, Russia denies everything about MH17, Iran will probably forever deny everything too.
They admitted and paid compensation. Dont talk nonsens....
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 15:35
  #336 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Observer1940 View Post
Looking at the videos I cannot see anything to support the aircraft being engaged by the ground
The video published by the NYT clearly shows a SAM hitting an aircraft: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/v...e-missile.html
All the other videos showing the aircraft on fire are taken after that video.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 15:37
  #337 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lomapaseo View Post
There is nothing wrong or untoward about removing the wreckage from the impact site. They have had enough time to document the geo-locations of the major pieces and at the same time to remove the human remains to a separate location.
Yep, nothing to see here, right?

Scavengers Are Taking Evidence From the Iran Plane Crash Site, CBS Reports

TROPHY HUNTERS

Jamie Ross

Reporter

Updated Jan. 10, 2020 6:34AM ET / Published Jan. 10, 2020 6:10AM ET

VIA REUTERS

Scavengers are being allowed access to the site of Wednesday’s plane crash in Iran to take away pieces of evidence, CBS News reports. The network’s foreign correspondent Elizabeth Palmer was able to enter the site before being told to leave by Iranian security officials. She reported that “apparent scavengers” were scouring through what debris is left from the crash and looking for pieces of the plane to take away. Palmer also reported that witnesses told her a truck arrived on Thursday to take the vast majority of the wreckage, but Iran has not said where it was taken. The jet’s fuselage and nose had been removed, and witnesses said the relocation of the wreckage started on the day of the crash. Ukrainian investigators have not visited the site, and will now find a largely empty area. Palmer wrote on Twitter: “No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/iran-p...rs-cbs-reports
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 15:47
  #338 (permalink)  
 
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Place of the Video confirmed.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 16:05
  #339 (permalink)  
 
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I now appears that Iran will not send the recorders to another country to be read.

From Reuters:

January 10, 2020 / 3:34 AM / Updated 17 minutes ago

Iran to analyze black box after missile blamed for crash


Alexander Cornwell, Parisa Hafezi

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran said on Friday it wanted to download black box recordings itself from a Ukrainian airliner that crashed, killing all 176 people aboard, after Canada and others said the plane was brought down by an Iranian missile, probably by mistake.

Iran, which has denied the Boeing 737-800 was downed by a missile, said it could take one or two months to extract information from the voice and flight data recorders. It said it could ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine if it needed help.

Tehran also said the probe might take one or two years.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 16:09
  #340 (permalink)  
 
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So, we have:
- US military officials stating that they have satellite detection of the search radar turning on, followed by the IR blip of the missile being launched, followed by the IR blip of the plane being hit, followed by the plane crash.
- Video of what appears to be a missile being launched and hitting the plane.
- Video of the plane in flames in the air followed by the crash.
- Photos of the wreckage that appear to show penetration of the fuselage by external shrapnel of some sort.
- The PMs of both Canada and the UK saying they believe that the plane was shot down and have evidence to support it.

I mean, I get it, it's not official until the investigation is completed and the final report issued, but based on the above it seems pretty likely that the plane was shot down.
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