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Hard times for Norwegian

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Hard times for Norwegian

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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:29
  #541 (permalink)  
 
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That could be a valid option. And I honestly think quite a few bondholders will go for that. The rest will vote yes to the New Norwegian plan.

Norwegian propaganda is trying to make everybody believe there is no market to place those aircraft, slots,... but of course there is market for them to be profitable (even in 2021 as someone has said!). I simply find this a bit contradictory
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:32
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Originally Posted by Capt Scribble
Paul737: Credit default swaps?
Assuming that you find a bank or insurance company crazy enough to issue such a contract the premium on the contract if you own it or the price if you want to buy a Norwegian CDS would be through the ceiling to reflect the current probability of solvency of the company. This is not 2008.

A Norwegian CDS, that by the way probably don’t even exist for obvious reasons, now would price in the current difficulties of the company
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:32
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Originally Posted by Paul737
Creditors will go for it. Of course! They don’t have a better option. But they will go for it with the New Norwegian plan, based on core profitability and huge fleet reduction. Even Jacob Schram said yesterday they will cut the LH fleet by 50% (at least).

The sooner the crews outside Scandinavia accept the reality the better for them.

As I said before, 40-50 aircraft less means a lot of base closures. Whoever don’t want to to see it is really naive.

And thinking about a full summer schedule in 2021 is...
Paul737, I can only think by the bitterness of your posts lately that you have been affected by the bankruptcy of CPH and ARN crew subsidiaries (which i think it's temporary anyway), but even then there is no reason to blame non Scandinavian bases of the current situation.

Norwegian is what it is for their international presence and that has been reflected in the plan. Of course there will be a reduction of fleets across the network and across the world, but instead of becoming a hater, think that norwegian will only be successful in their goal as a whole. Bases that will remain open or closed are yet to be known and the new owners will dictate that iaw their business plans and profit margins, not because you cry and whine.

As you said in your earlier post. We will say May 5th.

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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:35
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From "Travel Mole":

Low-cost Norwegian Air is planning to keep most of its flights grounded until next spring, after which it plans to start ramping up its services for the peak summer season. However, in a presentation to bondholders on Thursday it will warn that it isn't expecting flights to get back to normal until 2022. As a result, the airline needs to secure a NOK 2.7 billion loan from the Norwegian government within the next three weeks to ensure it can survive until the end of this year.
It has already received NOK 300 million, but it says it needs to restructure its debt to increase its capital to release the remainder of the NOK three billion (£230 million) government loan.
If it succeeds, it said the money should tide it over until the end of the year, but it warned that it might need further funding. Currently, 95% of the Norwegian's aircraft are grounded and thousands of workers are furloughed.
As part of the new business plan, the carrier plans to only operate seven aircraft in the Scandinavian region until April 2021 to minimize its cash burn, and then gradually resume long-haul and European flights. Even by 2022, it expects to operate a maximum of 120 aircraft compared with 168 prior to the pandemic, focusing only on profitable routes.
It is proposing a debt restructuring plan that will give aircraft leasing companies that are owed more than $3 billion more than half the equity in the airline, while bondholders would control the second largest share. The proposal would leave existing owners of the stock with just 5.2% of the airline. Bondholders are scheduled to vote on the proposals on Thursday before a shareholder meeting set for May 4.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:54
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Originally Posted by 737lpa
Paul737, I can only think by the bitterness of your posts lately that you have been affected by the bankruptcy of CPH and ARN crew subsidiaries (which i think it's temporary anyway), but even then there is no reason to blame non Scandinavian bases of the current situation.

Norwegian is what it is for their international presence and that has been reflected in the plan. Of course there will be a reduction of fleets across the network and across the world, but instead of becoming a hater, think that norwegian will only be successful in their goal as a whole. Bases that will remain open or closed are yet to be known and the new owners will dictate that iaw their business plans and profit margins, not because you cry and whine.

As you said in your earlier post. We will say May 5th.
You are letting your feelings blind your judgement.

I can understand you are afraid of losing your base having been recently released as 787 captain. Or even worried about if your number in the MSL would be high enough to be able to bid for any base available.

Time will tell
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 12:10
  #546 (permalink)  
 
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Base bidding? To which base should I bid? Can you recommend one? And don't say Scandinavia because there is no LH there anymore.

What do you have against LH? Did they not let you transfer from SH because you didn't have enough experience? Or was it that they didn't give you an upgrade to premium on your last trip?

This is not about a base, or a fleet. This is about weather norwegian can make it or not. And my base of preference is irrelevant. Bases and routes they either make money or they don't. Weather in Scandinavia or anywhere else.

And don't get me started with the MSL...🙄
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 12:28
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And what about the crews? Are they expected to sit around until 2021 or even 2022 - and that’s even on the off chance that they might still have a job at the end of it?
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 12:39
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I think we can all agree that this is a mess for all of us regardless. Weather norwegian goes under or it survives, with whatever acft, or bases, or fleets. Job market will pick up eventually we all hope, but next year it's pretty much written off regardless of what happens on May 4th.

Last edited by 737lpa; 30th Apr 2020 at 13:24.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:12
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When will the bondholders vote?

It must be hell for staff waiting on the bondholders to approve the restructuring, wasn't it supposed to be announced yesterday or today?

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Old 1st May 2020, 10:47
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Norwegian made a final offer with deadline 23:00 last night. No news so far.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:58
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Crews have been invited to apply for their jobs...
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Old 1st May 2020, 13:56
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Oslo crews, or all crews across the network?
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Old 1st May 2020, 14:46
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Not really reapplying for your job though is it, it's just a pool of CVs.
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Old 1st May 2020, 15:18
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Bondholders said NO. Negotiations continue.
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Old 1st May 2020, 15:22
  #555 (permalink)  
 
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drag it out to the very end...

Yeah I just saw on twitter. Awful.

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article...talks-continue
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Old 1st May 2020, 16:06
  #556 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem
Bondholders said NO. Negotiations continue.
Only a few percent to go in one of the four loans. Negotiations continue.The other three loans went through with ayes in the 80 to 90 percent spectrum. All aircraft lessors are onboard with ”strong support” . Dont get your knickers in a twist. They are going to survive.

Last edited by uncle-traveling-matt; 1st May 2020 at 16:17.
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Old 1st May 2020, 17:42
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Bondholders that voted for do not longer feel bound due to it being conditional on that it went through overnight, which it didn't. Including their support for the new share issue. Legal wrangling to follow.
And aircraft lessors said yes on condition that the bond holders said yes, which they didn't.
All accoridng to DN and Sissener: https://www.dn.no/luftfart/norwegian...det/2-1-801616
Shareholders now to vote next week on something they don't know what is.
This might rumble on until they run completely out of cash sometime mid May.
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Old 1st May 2020, 17:43
  #558 (permalink)  
 
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Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA – Results from the bondholders’ meetings

Nordic Trustee AS has informed Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA (“the Company”) about the results from bondholders’ meetings (see attachment below). The Company is pleased to see very robust support from 3 out of 4 bondholder groups, approving the Company´s proposals. The proposal to NAS07 did, however, not receive sufficient support with a vote in favour of 62% (2/3 required). The Company is however continuing a constructive dialogue with bondholders to assess whether the required majority for approval of the proposal can be reached. The Company has furthermore received strong support from lessors for a minimum conversion to equity of 550 million USD (excluding conversion under the so-called power-by-the-hour arrangement), which would satisfy the condition set out in the proposal to the bondholders. The Company’s scheduled extraordinary general meeting will be conducted as planned on Monday 4 May 2020. The Company intends to summon a new bondholder meeting planned to be held on Monday 18 May 2020. The Company will on Monday 4 May 2020 determine the timeline for the capital raise, which will end on or about 18 May 2020. “Our dialogue with the bondholders continues with the clear goal of reaching a solution. Unfortunately, we were not able to reach an agreement within the deadline. However, the discussion is continuing through the weekend to find a solution, said CEO Jacob Schram of Norwegian. Fornebu, 1 May 2020

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/504439 contains a link to the shareholders notes

The press release 2nd September 2019: (in other words they already knew they would run out of cash). Unfortunately the Gatwick Slots do not have the values anywhere near those before Covid, perhaps only 30% of what they were worth.

Norwegian’s Gatwick portfolio currently consists of take-off and landing slots which has an independent valuation from a well-reputed third-party in excess of the current nominal bond value for NAS07 and NAS08 of USD 380 million. These are important operational rights for the Norwegian Group, facilitating the feeding of passengers between our European short-haul network and intercontinental long-haul network, an important part of Norwegian’s profitability strategy going forward. Previous transactions in the market demonstrate the ability to monetize on slots at Gatwick.

Last edited by Kirks gusset; 1st May 2020 at 18:03.
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Old 1st May 2020, 23:47
  #559 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kirks gusset
Norwegian’s Gatwick portfolio currently consists of take-off and landing slots which has an independent valuation from a well-reputed third-party in excess of the current nominal bond value for NAS07 and NAS08 of USD 380 million. These are important operational rights for the Norwegian Group, facilitating the feeding of passengers between our European short-haul network and intercontinental long-haul network, an important part of Norwegian’s profitability strategy going forward.
That was a pre-Covid assessment of value for slot trading. Now all bets are off. I really expect that Gatwick landings will be On Demand in the future, you can have what you want.

Is there really much, if any, transfer of pax on Norwegian at Gatwick ? My understanding is it's pretty much all O&D.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 23:49
  #560 (permalink)  
 
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The press says the bondholder vote failed due to 3 large under the radar Danish bondholders saying no.

There is signs the Norwegian government is on the move tough with the minister for transport signalling additional measures for airlines.
Talking about that they didn't realise this would be so longlasting when it only came up with a loan support solution.
That extra state incentives are needed for a light at the end of the pandemic tunnel to encourage investment.
Most likely only after Norwegian's shareholder meeting vote though since saying some restucturing measures still required.

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