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MAX’s Return Delayed by FAA Reevaluation of 737 Safety Procedures

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MAX’s Return Delayed by FAA Reevaluation of 737 Safety Procedures

Old 5th Jul 2019, 14:34
  #1061 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yoko1
Obvious answer to a non-question, but let me throw back a more relevant one.
Three out of four Lion Air pilots who were the flying pilot with an active MCAS malfunction were able to maintain aircraft control.
Zero out of one Ethiopian pilot who was the flying pilot during an active MCAS malfunction did not.
Seems like a basic lesson in statistics is in order for your consulting firm. Let's learn through a problem. Q: is there a statistical difference between the performance of Lion Air, Ethiopean Airlines, and American cockpit crews in terms of MCAS survival?

I'll let you do the work.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 15:03
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Re # 1066,
‘Myth’. The CAA safety note - LoC thread does not exclude the MAX.
‘Myth’. The Magenta Line video did not focus on ‘automation dependency’ (a later term), or poor crew response (ill defined). The video specifically targeted the relatively new integrated automatics in the MD 80 and the need to disconnect the AT / AT, or FMS interaction - ‘Click Click’.
There was no advice as to how to identify situations which required systems to be disconnected.
There is no ‘trend’ in automation dependency, Automation is increasingly used to good effect, even Boeing chooses that for MCAS, but the problem of knowing when to take action remains (no video for MCAS).
Thus there are similarities with this thread, how might machines communicate with humans.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 15:10
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Originally Posted by sadtraveller
Seems like a basic lesson in statistics is in order for your consulting firm. Let's learn through a problem. Q: is there a statistical difference between the performance of Lion Air, Ethiopean Airlines, and American cockpit crews in terms of MCAS survival?

I'll let you do the work.
Folks you are missing the point. You declare here implicit to the public that through superior training and pilotage we are able to cut down the spear in rate of the 737 max from once in every 4 month to once every 4 years. Do you really think that solves the problem? I am sure that the 737 MAX program will be dead as soon as the next spears in due to any FC problems.
We have the 21 century and not 1960 area where the saying in Germany was, if you need an F-104, buy some land and wait.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 15:17
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So Long and Thanks for All the Fish!!

Mr. Yoko,

It’s 7:30ish where I live and I’ve spent a half hour or so wrangling though your voluminous contributions over the past day. I am going to engage once again because to fail to do so would be rude and would leave the record incomplete. After this I will wish you fair and following seas and call it good.

1. Jingoism and abuse of Foreign Airlines- Perhaps you genuinely do not see what you write the way others do, but your words are not only offensive, they are inflammatory and contribute nothing to the dialogue. We all get that you blame the crews and as a corollary their airlines for what happened, at least in significant part, it’s past time to put it down and move on. Follows is a quote from a recent post of yours:

"Quote:
Isn't it that MAX incidents only occured on foreign airlines ?

Well, that was kind of my point. An appeal to not criticize a "foreign" airline is tantamount to a call to not criticize any of the airlines involved. Are you saying these organization should be above scrutiny because of their citizenship?
Should I also make the obvious point that from your perspective, Boeing is a "foreign" entity? It seems you have no problem criticizing "foreigners," so excuse me if I wonder of the lack of consistency here."

That “answer” is intentionally distracting hogwash. Taking just one example of your perfidy “An appeal to criticize a “foreign” airline IS NOT tantamount to a call to criticize any of the airlines involved.” Nor is anyone suggesting that any entity is above scrutiny. Your conflation of clearly unrelated and impractical ideas, not to mention your incessant (there are two more if I counted right just in this morning’s batch) harping on the two carriers and their pilots ignores the simple fact that BOEING GAVE ALL AIRLINES A FLAWED AIRPLANE. A STUPIDLY FLAWED AIRPLANE THAT WILL TRY TO KILL YOU!! So for most of us that is the logical place to start. If Boeing had not created such a frankenairplane with such a flawed system(s) then neither of those crews would have had any issues and we would not be burning up the internets today with this unfortunate argument.

2. Constant circular or non-relevant references, arguments and distracting information- I’m going to illustrate this one below with another snippet from a recent post. Bottom line is when someone shows up in impromptu form, makes highly distracting arguments in copious quantities that are basically impossible to keep up with without staff to help, and not to mention offers highly refined and nuanced comments in a single specific direction people like me are going to read what is written and in fairly short order decide that this is not in fact a disinterested party. In any case the response I am about to post is to a question you were asked about last week’s discovery by the FAA that Big B had missed another target, this time by providing the FAA with software that was flawed and would (sadly) try to screw the airplane into the ground. Your messaging has made it clear that we should see this as no big deal, (That dog don’t bark.”) so your response isn’t too surprising, but it is illuminating as it shows your refusal to engage in a straightforward manner, as well as your use of proactive messaging to try to alter the narrative.

"Quoteriginally Posted by Fly Aiprt [img]file:///CUsers\BIGPAP~1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\09\clip_im age001.gif[/img]How about this FAA pilot in the Boeing engineering cab ?
Does that count, or is it apples and oranges ?


You mean the pilots who were stress-testing new, non-flight certified software/firmware than was never used on the accident aircraft in such a way as to introduce intentionally failures to see if the new software was compatible with the old processors? Those pilots?"

I'm sorry, but those are not the words of someone engaging in a discussion or argument, those are quite simply and obviously the words of someone using an unrelated prompt to proactively push a message.Your posts are absolutely filled with similar examples.

3. Overposting- What can I say, it’s a well-known technique to assert control of forum threads (not just PPRuNe) by posting numerous large posts repeatedly, to the extent that mere mortals lose the ability or (preferably) the interest in the topic and go elsewhere, leaving the field open for the narrative that is to be forwarded. I have no idea if this is what you are doing, if it is intentional, or anything else with regard to reason for your voluminous and enormous barrage of posts. What I do know is it is highly annoying.

4. Identity- I do not think that you should be forced or even encouraged to reveal your identity here. Everyone here is entitled to the putative anonymity that we enjoy (not we as my identity is public, metaphorical we here…) as part of membership in PPRuNe and no one should feel forced to divulge their identity. However, and this is a big however: If you are going to write the things you write, in the way you write them, then it will be hard for you to be taken seriously unless you do identify yourself positively.

5. Ad hominem attacks- Sorry Yoko, but if you think anything I wrote is an ad hominem attack you are simply mistaken. I have no issues with you, have not attacked you, nor have I questioned your right to be here, your right to remain anonymous, or your right to post whatever you wish. The only thing I have done is call out the odd fact of your creation as a user, your style and repetitive posting, and the content and push-messaging of your messages. If you don’t want people to pick apart the content you post then may I respectfully suggest you stop posting stuff online??

And with that I think this horse has been beaten well enough for 2019. This thread has been a valuable exploration of different aspects of the 737, from certification to the mechanics of the tail jack screw. I hope it lives on into the future as a reference for anyone interested in this topic.

Regards,
dce
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 15:26
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Re # 1069,
The misuse of a rhetorical or unanswerable question to infer that differences between the crew’s mental performance, those that survived and those who did not, was the cause of the accidents is based on false logic, false reasoning, inventing data which cannot be established.

We cannot know what the crew’s thoughts were;
biased suspicions or inference discredit them, the operator, and our industry.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 15:37
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Can anyone (Yoko1) confirm the simulators have been "fixed" to simulate the trim system yet?

On all the Max & NG simulators inc the Ethiopian one and two Canadian's - or just the Boeing simulator.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 15:39
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Originally Posted by PerPurumTonantes
Yoko1
It might help people to trust you if you were to share your real identity. This normally wouldn't be an issue on PPRuNe; the anonymity is good because it allows open discussion without fear of reprisals. But the nature and sheer quantity of your posts, dominating the discussion, on such a contentious issue, added to the fact that you seem to have popped up out of nowhere, is making people rather sceptical. It would certainly help reassure us if you were to declare who you really are and show no connection to Boeing.

If you choose not to, no worries, but expect continued and increasing skepticism from the best skeptics in the business

Been saying that for years.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 15:59
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I don't believe we know exactly how many times MCAS has activated, worldwide, ever? We only know for certain that MCAS triggered three times.

US airlines account for 18% of worldwide MAX deliveries. That means there were four times as many MAX's being flown by non-US airlines as by US companies. Assuming similar flying hours per a/c, that suggests to me that it was four times as likely a non-US a/c would have an MCAS event.

To me, it looks like the lack of US MCAS crashes is less about pilot training, and more about arithmetic.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 16:28
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Originally Posted by yoko1
If PPruNe wants to start enforcing this disclosure criteria on everyone, I'll be happy to respect it. However, as you note the end result will be less, and not more, information. I know it will on my part because I'm pretty sure my employer (not-Boeing, btw) would take issue with some of the things I've said....
No need to fully disclose your identity to others on here, though it wasn't particularly difficult to make an educated guess based on internet sleuthing and your previous account (don't worry, I will not stoop so far as to dox you). Some answers to non-identifying questions should more than suffice to establish the relevant issue of whether you've a horse in this race.

Questions:
1. Are you an interested party in this matter? (i.e. do you suffer from a conflict of interest with respect to the success of the 737 Max?)
2. Specifically, as I asked before, do you now work for a consulting firm that has a financial interest in a recent large sale of Max aircraft to a foreign state-owned airline?

I can assume based on your occasional reluctant admissions that Boeing may bear some responsibility that you are not in fact posting with the knowledge of your employer. I can assume also that these comments are those with which your employer may take issue. I hope for your sake that you were using a good VPN. I'd imagine the type of firm that arranges aircraft sales to foreign dictatorships is not particularly forgiving of such "slip-ups".

For the record, I am not an interested party and I have no conflict of interest regarding the Max. Now you go.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 16:44
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So if the pilots were never properly trained in [trim runaway] procedure, and that procedure might have saved the day, where does that responsibility fall? - Yoko1

Imma out on a limb here and say "on the people who created a single-point failure that doesn't cause a runaway, but causes something that looks different and has the same effect, and deliberately left that out of the training to save SWAL some money."
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 16:48
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Originally Posted by yoko1
You mean the pilots who were stress-testing new, non-flight certified software/firmware than was never used on the accident aircraft in such a way as to introduce intentionally failures to see if the new software was compatible with the old processors? Those pilots?
Indeed.
Those pilotes who were on their guard, who -supposedly- applied Boeing's procedures for recovery, with a -supposedly- fixed software that had been ready for FAA flight test for weeks. Those pilots, absolutely.

Did those pilots succeed or did they fail to recover in a timely and expected manner ?

Or could it be that in this particular case of control loss, it wasn't because of the pilots^^?

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Old 5th Jul 2019, 17:19
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Originally Posted by Alchad
Sadtraveller,

Perhaps I could be wrong but it does no good to make allegations and inferences without being able to substantiate them.

Alchad
Agreed, and I could also be wrong in my guess, which is why I have directly asked him the discussion-relevant non-identifying questions point-blank in my previous post (e.g. is he an interested party with respect to the Max, and does he work for a firm in the same line of business as the firm that I am guessing that he works for).

At the end of the day, what really matters for the purpose of this discussion is whether or not he has a vested interest in defending the Max. We will see if he answers.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 17:24
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
Can anyone (Yoko1) confirm the simulators have been "fixed" to simulate the trim system yet?

On all the Max & NG simulators inc the Ethiopian one and two Canadian's - or just the Boeing simulator.
According to press reports, Boeing and the simulator manufacturers are "working together".
But given that the aiplane software is not ready yet, it is most doubtful whether a simulator version exists at the moment.

As I understand it, Boeing's "simulator" is a thing they call an "engineering cab" (e-cab), maybe some contraption into which they plug actual computer boxes etc.

Some info from Boeing here :
Boeing: The ?e-cab? ? a test flight deck

It is ironic to read or hear comments about "right at first flight", "you know exactly how the airplane will react in flight", etc.

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Old 5th Jul 2019, 17:37
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Originally Posted by sadtraveller
At the end of the day, what really matters for the purpose of this discussion is whether or not he has a vested interest in defending the Max. We will see if he answers.
In my opinion, there is no need for that.
Yoko's posts speak for themselves.

Suppose there would be here on the forum an engineer from Boeing (or Airbus), providing knowledgeable comments, reference documents, balanced and well thought explanations, would we doubt his honesty, independence or competence ?

As safetypee noted above (#1065), It’s not what we think, but how we think which is important . Think or write, for that matter.

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Old 5th Jul 2019, 17:56
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Not long back there was a thread about how pilots were perceived. What with the Singers streakers and some arguments on here, one wonders...
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 18:08
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My airline career is over and indeed my military career that preceeded it. One thing I do know is that groundschool and associated technical training has been repeatedly cut over the last forty years as airlines, in particular, seek to reduce costs. The days of 'chalk and talk' appear to be long gone. Now it appears to be a case of self-study using CBT with maybe, just maybe, a groundschool instructor being a available somewhere in the building. How many of us used to photocopy diagrams of fuel, oil, hydraulic and air systems to put into folders which we carried in our cases, readily available at a moments notice ? But of course its now all there in the laptop or tablet but how many younger pilots actually look at them ?

It is churlish to automatically assume that pilots from North America, Western Europe or Australasia are better trained than their colleagues from less affluent parts of the globe yet this seems to be the jist of some contributions here. Thinking back to some of the manuals I have had the dubious pleasure of reading over the years, it seems to me that they have become ever more simple to a point where complicated systems can be described in a paragraph or two. The manufacturers seem to have adopted a 'need to know' philosophy designed for the lowest common denominator within the field of aircraft purchasers and operators. Any wonder therefore that a system such as MCAS is sketched over in order to provide a simple differences course rather than more expensive and time consuming study in the classroom and simulator.

Boeing will of course find a fix for their problems in due course which will hopefully be correctly tested and approved by the regulator in a rather less cosy in-house manner. Getting the paying public to get on the aircraft will be a big challenge a little further down the line; I am guessing that decals proclaiming 737-800 Max will be very hard to find !
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 18:14
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Originally Posted by beamer
I am guessing that decals proclaiming 737-800 Max will be very hard to find !
I imagine they will continue to be as rare as ever ...

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Old 5th Jul 2019, 18:16
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Originally Posted by Alchad
Sadtraveller,

you have previously (post 1048) alleged that yoko1 was 737 Driver and I have already commented that this cannot be the case (my post 1056) as 737 Driver continued to post under that name after yoko1 started posting. I would not have thought having two accounts was allowed on Pprune.

Perhaps I could be wrong but it does no good to make allegations and inferences without being able to substantiate them.

Alchad
737 Driver's last post before his account was suspended was on May 11th.

Yoko1 joined PPRuNe on May 20th.

Unless 737 Driver has posts I cannot see, or Yoko1 posted before he joined their functional existence here did not overlap.

Cheers-
dce
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 18:30
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt
As I understand it, Boeing's "simulator" is a thing they call an "engineering cab" (e-cab), maybe some contraption into which they plug actual computer boxes etc.
Actually, as I suspected it, the e-cab is not a full motion flight simulator, nor an "iron bird" with all the hardware, rods and cables attached.
It is a fixed simulator with video screens in front of the windows.
https://www.boeing.com/features/2014...-06-25-14.page

Makes you think when pilots tell they had a hard time recovering the aircraft when replicating the MAX accidents. What with a full flight sim, or pulling g's in a real airplane.





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Old 5th Jul 2019, 18:50
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Originally Posted by wonkazoo
737 Driver's last post before his account was suspended was on May 11th.
Out of interest, are you inferring that he is banned simply because he hasn't posted since then, or is there some other indication ?

One would expect to see the usual flag on his profile and posts if he were:

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