Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Flight Deck Forums > Rumours & News
Reload this Page >

Scrapping of A380

Wikiposts
Search
Rumours & News Reporting Points that may affect our jobs or lives as professional pilots. Also, items that may be of interest to professional pilots.

Scrapping of A380

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 11th May 2019, 23:24
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Boldly going where no split infinitive has gone before..
Posts: 4,785
Received 44 Likes on 20 Posts
Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
Customer demand was there.
At the time of cancellation, the A380F had exactly one order- a single aircraft for Emirates.
Wizofoz is offline  
Old 12th May 2019, 10:18
  #42 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Posts: 645
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
At what time? They had 27 orders from Emirates, FedEx, UPS and ILFC when Airbus decided to halt the freighter. Airbus stopped that version and converted orders or cancelled the existing orders.
Kerosene Kraut is offline  
Old 12th May 2019, 16:29
  #43 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: shiny side up
Posts: 431
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
the 747-8F is still in production and the A380 is officially dead.
Actually, there are more A380's on order than 747-8F

Currently there are 65 A380 orders awaiting delivery, to Emirates and Al Nippon.

There are 23 747-8F orders awaiting delivery to UPS. (no passenger 747-8 orders)

Given current production rates, they will be shutting down the 747-8 line before the A380 line...

Last edited by Smythe; 12th May 2019 at 16:42.
Smythe is offline  
Old 12th May 2019, 16:37
  #44 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Mars
Posts: 527
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Most of the EK A380s are on operating leases. When they expire at the 10year point there will be either a very cheap follow on lease, a cheap buy or a scrapped aircraft. With 14 flights a day to the UK, a move to 777s would need about 4-5 more slots which are pretty hard to come by so maybe the story has a while to run yet.
Schnowzer is offline  
Old 12th May 2019, 18:08
  #45 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: washington dc
Posts: 46
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Smythe
.... they will be shutting down the 747-8 line before the A380 line...
Yep, 747 line will shut down after 50+ years and 1,500-plus built. A380 line will shut down in less than 20 years and fewer than 300 built.
voyageur9 is offline  
Old 12th May 2019, 18:18
  #46 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: shiny side up
Posts: 431
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I suppose, but the comparable aircraft, the 747-8i sold 47 units. (Another Boeing reaction to an Airbus aircraft) As far as development money well spent, the 747-8i was a huge loss.

Not that it matters much, in reality, both are done.
Smythe is offline  
Old 12th May 2019, 18:56
  #47 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Reading, UK
Posts: 15,816
Received 201 Likes on 93 Posts
Originally Posted by Smythe
Currently there are 65 A380 orders awaiting delivery, to Emirates and Al Nippon.
Notwithstanding what Wikipedia might say, nobody seriously expects another 65 A380s to be built in remaining two years before the line closes.

DaveReidUK is offline  
Old 12th May 2019, 19:14
  #48 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Geneva, Switzerland
Age: 58
Posts: 1,904
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Agreed
I'd be surprised if they build more than another 20.
atakacs is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 00:23
  #49 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 68
Posts: 4,407
Received 180 Likes on 88 Posts
Originally Posted by Smythe
Actually, there are more A380's on order than 747-8F

Currently there are 65 A380 orders awaiting delivery, to Emirates and Al Nippon.

There are 23 747-8F orders awaiting delivery to UPS. (no passenger 747-8 orders)

Given current production rates, they will be shutting down the 747-8 line before the A380 line...
Do try to keep up - Airbus has ALREADY announced the A380 line will close in 2021, and most of those 65 orders you quote have been officially cancelled - outstanding orders for the A380 currently stand at about a dozen.
tdracer is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 01:44
  #50 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: USA
Age: 78
Posts: 132
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Considering the number of 747-8s I see in my wilderness area but on the flight path from Asia to the US prime air freight centers, is it likely the 747-8F will continue for a lengthy period at a relatively low rate. In other words is it likely the 747 will continue on well beyond the end of the A380 if only as a freighter? Aren't the advantages of the 747 over a 777 freighter significant for specific cargos? Not many can justify hiring the AN-225 but the 747 does seem to fill a niche unable to be filled by the 777. Certainly they won't go on like the C-47/DC-3 and 727-200 for which it appears nobody has a suitable replacement.
NWA SLF is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 11:34
  #51 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: US
Age: 66
Posts: 598
Likes: 0
Received 8 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
Not sure how right Boeing was. They developed the 747-8 believing in the big quad's future themselves.

Concerning the A380 as a freighter: FedEx and UPS had ordered (firm) factory build A380 freighters back then until Airbus cancelled that version during their electrical wiring "harness mess".
The 747-800 was a relatively low cost rehash of the 747-400. It probably will end up being profitable. Boeing itself forecast a poor market for large 4 engine aircraft and disputed airbuses projections for the market. For that reason they declined to develope a new aircraft for the market.

Last edited by Sailvi767; 16th May 2019 at 11:52.
Sailvi767 is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 11:58
  #52 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,074
Received 66 Likes on 40 Posts
Without some 747 they could grow the 777 even more.
Less Hair is online now  
Old 13th May 2019, 13:48
  #53 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: shiny side up
Posts: 431
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Do try to keep up - Airbus has ALREADY announced the A380 line will close in 2021, and most of those 65 orders you quote have been officially cancelled - outstanding orders for the A380 currently stand at about a dozen.
really, is that necessary? At least, when there are no orders, Airbus does the smart thing and cancels production. Cant say the same for Boeing. (one a month keeps a line open? until 2021?)

I dont mind Emirates reducing A380 orders when they add 70 other orders...all told, Emirates probably would have kept ordering.

The 747 was nice to fly, until the A380 came out.
Smythe is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 14:36
  #54 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tent
Posts: 916
Received 19 Likes on 12 Posts
Airbus does not have the numbers to get better fuel efficient engines ever.
Bend alot is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 14:45
  #55 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Canada
Posts: 72
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Smythe
really, is that necessary? At least, when there are no orders, Airbus does the smart thing and cancels production. Cant say the same for Boeing. (one a month keeps a line open? until 2021?)
Boeing is making money on each 747 produced, and will still be profitable even at one a month.

Airbus is losing money on each A380 produced (since last year), and will keep losing money until the line is shut down.

So who's smarter now, Boeing or Airbus?
futurama is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 15:05
  #56 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,074
Received 66 Likes on 40 Posts
Aren't both A and B at 0.5/month right now?
Less Hair is online now  
Old 13th May 2019, 18:34
  #57 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 68
Posts: 4,407
Received 180 Likes on 88 Posts
Originally Posted by Less Hair
Aren't both A and B at 0.5/month right now?
The 747-8F is at 0.5/month - not sure about the A380 (I seem to recall 2/3 per month but wouldn't put money on that).
At 0.5/month, the 747 isn't really a money maker, but it doesn't lose money either and it keeps the line open. Boeing still believes there is a solid market for the 747 Freighter - it's basically without competition in the over 100 ton freighter class and most of those 747F flying around today are getting seriously long in the tooth and will eventually need to be replaced. If they can get it back to 1/month (or higher) then the 747-8 becomes a solid money maker for Boeing.
As Sailvi notes, the 747-8 was a relatively inexpensive derivative of the 747-400 - Boeing didn't need to sell big numbers of the -8 to make money on it. I know what the business case numbers were for the 747-8 when it was launched. It's considered proprietary so I can't post them here, but suffice to say Boeing is easily on track to meet the business case assumptions.
tdracer is offline  
Old 13th May 2019, 22:30
  #58 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: On the lake
Age: 82
Posts: 670
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Considering the number of 747-8s I see in my wilderness area but on the flight path from Asia to the US prime air freight centers, is it likely the 747-8F will continue for a lengthy period at a relatively low rate.
Unless trans-Pacific trade flows slow down! But why would that happen?
twochai is offline  
Old 14th May 2019, 01:58
  #59 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: UK/OZ
Posts: 1,887
Received 7 Likes on 4 Posts
What size of reduction in fuel costs would give a380 a new lease of life?

Given global warming and calls in Australia to have its own fire fighting fleet, is life as a water bomber feasible? What is its payload if loaded with only, let’s say, 4 hours of fuel?

mjb
mickjoebill is offline  
Old 14th May 2019, 02:27
  #60 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tent
Posts: 916
Received 19 Likes on 12 Posts
Originally Posted by mickjoebill
What size of reduction in fuel costs would give a380 a new lease of life?

Given global warming and calls in Australia to have its own fire fighting fleet, is life as a water bomber feasible? What is its payload if loaded with only, let’s say, 4 hours of fuel?

mjb
At a 30% reduction in fuel they would still be more thirsty than the new twins (depending on units used) in the medium range. So at a 25-35% reduction you would still only be replacing existing frames and not growing the market.

I would expect that a conversion to a water bomber would face the same structural issues as being a freighter. It also is limited by airports that could handle it 130 worldwide.
Bend alot is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.